In Sunday’s EPL DFS Playbook we did a deep dive into the motivations of various teams as we wind our way towards the end of the season. If you missed it, I think it would be worth your while to go back and check it out. One thing that has been brought to my attention since then is that most, if not all, EPL players have incentive clauses in their contracts that pay them based on the team’s finish in the table. So while Crystal Palace fans may not care if their team finishes 11th or 14th, the players have some reasons to fight for every point.
Even though these slates are small, they feature a lot of players like Onel Hernandez and Reece James who don’t start often but are always playable for fantasy. With that in mind, be sure to check Twitter and the FANation chat an hour before kickoff to get my lineup adjustments and ask me any questions you may have.
Playbook
| Goalies |
| Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG |
| Ben Foster | WAT | NOR | 5600 | 5.73 | 8 | 9.42 |
| Norwich have not scored since the restart, and they have just one goal in their last nine games. With Todd Cantwell out, Watford are even more likely to get a clean sheet. |
| Tim Krul | NOR | WAT | 4000 | 5.86 | 7 | 9.13 |
| Watford only have two goals since the restart, and for all of Norwich's problems, they've allowed one goal or fewer in six of their last nine games. Krul is a cheap differential if you don't want to play Foster |
| Kepa Arrizabalaga | CHE | CRY | 5800 | 5.52 | 13 | 8.26 |
| Chelsea should win this game, even on the road, and Palace have been shut out in three straight games. |
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| Forwards |
| Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG |
| Jordan Ayew | CRY | CHE | 7300 | 9.69 | 17 | 13.29 |
| Ayew threads the needle with a high floor and a high ceiling, though I'd be lying if I said I love the matchup. But this is a solid price for someone with double-digit DK fantasy points in six of his last seven games. And the lone exception was at Liverpool. |
| Troy Deeney | WAT | NOR | 7100 | 8.3 | 16 | 14.95 |
| He's basically bringing a knife to a gun fight at this point, as few, if any of his teammates are Premier League caliber. That being said, he's always good for some crosses, tackles and chances created. And it's not as if Watford have set the world on fire, conceding the third-most goals during the restart. |
| Willian | CHE | CRY | 10500 | 14.11 | 22 | 17.79 |
| He is fourth in the league in crosses and chances created since the restart. He is the rare player who is equally good on both sites. |
| Ismaila Sarr | WAT | NOR | 9400 | 10.02 | 14 | 10.55 |
| I expect Sarr to be owned everywhere on FD, but he will probably be less popular on DK where is price is a bit ridiculous. That being said, he's got a great matchup at home against Norwich, and he could easily score enough to return value and then some. |
| Christian Pulisic | CHE | CRY | 8800 | 11.76 | 17 | 16.72 |
| Pulisic bounced back from a disappointing game at Watford to draw four fouls, take three shots and create two chances Saturday against Watford. |
| Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG |
| Marc Albrighton | LEI | ARS | #N/A | #N/A | 9 | 7.45 |
| Albrighton has at least 12.9 fantasy points in both games with James Maddison out, and he could hit even more set pieces with Ben Chilwell expected to miss out as well. |
| Will Hughes | WAT | NOR | 5000 | 6.76 | 9 | 9.77 |
| Hughes has been surprisingly not terrible since the restart, which is more than I can say about any of his teammates. Doucoure may have a slightly higher ceiling, but he has been awful in June and July. |
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| Defenders |
| Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG |
| Cesar Azpilicueta | CHE | CRY | 5900 | 10.29 | 15 | 17.05 |
| Azpilicueta has the highest ceiling of any defender on this slate, and it's not particularly close. He makes me a little nervous for cash games, but it is really easy to pay up for him, especially on FD. That makes up for the fact he's been a bit more inconsistent in that format. |
| Patrick van Aanholt | CRY | CHE | 5200 | 9.07 | 14 | 14.03 |
| Like Azpilicueta, van Aanholt is a bit risky, but you've got to spend money somewhere. Them and Marcos Alonso are the only defenders in this slate who will get forward with any consistency. |
| Craig Dawson | WAT | NOR | 4100 | 3.05 | 12 | 12.19 |
| Dawson has the most clearances of any defender on the slate since the restart, but he's surprisingly been good on DK as well, averaging 6.45 DK fantasy points over his last four games. |
| Joel Ward | CRY | CHE | 3600 | 5.16 | 10 | 10.78 |
| Among defenders playing Tuesday, only Craig Dawson has more clearances than Joel Ward. Ward is a fine play on DK as well thanks to the tackles won and the occasional crosses into the box. |
| Ryan Bennett | LEI | ARS | #N/A | #N/A | 5 | 6.66 |
| Bennett is likely to start at left back with Ben Chilwell out, and while I'm not expecting him to match Ben Chilwell's production, Bennett did have 5.2 fantasy points in 45 minutes Saturday. If he doubles that production at his price, we'll have a nice punt play who will allow you to play a couple of the expensive midfielders. |
| Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG |
| Jonny Evans | LEI | ARS | #N/A | #N/A | 12 | 14.18 |
| Evans is sixth in the league in clearances, which gives him a nice floor in cash games. |
Example Lineups
Players bolded in the pivot lineups are the pivot for the players in that spot in the lineup above it.
| DK Cash | | | DK GPP |
| Pos. | Player | Team | Opp | FPPG | Salary | | | Pos. | Player | Team | Opp | FPPG | Salary |
| F | Jordan Ayew | CRY | CHE | 9.69 | $7,300 | | | F | Troy Deeney | WAT | NOR | 8.3 | $7,100 |
| F | Wilfried Zaha | CRY | CHE | 9.06 | $7,000 | | | F | Christian Pulisic | CHE | CRY | 11.76 | $8,800 |
| M | Will Hughes | WAT | NOR | 6.76 | $5,000 | | | M | Onel Hernandez | NOR | WAT | 5.07 | $3,400 |
| M | Luka Milivojevic | CRY | CHE | 9.55 | $6,400 | | | M | Will Hughes | WAT | NOR | 6.76 | $5,000 |
| D | Cesar Azpilicueta | CHE | CRY | 10.29 | $5,900 | | | D | Cesar Azpilicueta | CHE | CRY | 10.29 | $5,900 |
| D | Joel Ward | CRY | CHE | 5.16 | $3,600 | | | D | Craig Dawson | WAT | NOR | 3.05 | $4,100 |
| GK | Ben Foster | WAT | NOR | 5.73 | $5,600 | | | GK | Ben Foster | WAT | NOR | 5.73 | $5,600 |
| Util | Christian Pulisic | CHE | CRY | 11.76 | $8,800 | | | Util | Ismaila Sarr | WAT | NOR | 10.02 | $9,400 |
| | | | | Total | $49,600 | | | | | | | Total | $49,300 |
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| DK Pivot Cash | | | DK Pivot GPP |
| Pos. | Player | Team | Opp | FPPG | Salary | | | Pos. | Player | Team | Opp | FPPG | Salary |
| F | Jordan Ayew | CRY | CHE | 9.69 | $7,300 | | | F | Troy Deeney | WAT | NOR | 8.3 | $7,100 |
| F | Wilfried Zaha | CRY | CHE | 9.06 | $7,000 | | | F | Christian Pulisic | CHE | CRY | 11.76 | $8,800 |
| M | Will Hughes | WAT | NOR | 6.76 | $5,000 | | | M | Billy Gilmour | CHE | CRY | 1.71 | $3,200 |
| M | Luka Milivojevic | CRY | CHE | 9.55 | $6,400 | | | M | Will Hughes | WAT | NOR | 6.76 | $5,000 |
| D | Reece James | CHE | CRY | 8.32 | $5,700 | | | D | Cesar Azpilicueta | CHE | CRY | 10.29 | $5,900 |
| D | Craig Dawson | WAT | NOR | 3.05 | $4,100 | | | D | Craig Dawson | WAT | NOR | 3.05 | $4,100 |
| GK | Ben Foster | WAT | NOR | 5.73 | $5,600 | | | GK | Ben Foster | WAT | NOR | 5.73 | $5,600 |
| Util | Christian Pulisic | CHE | CRY | 11.76 | $8,800 | | | Util | Ismaila Sarr | WAT | NOR | 10.02 | $9,400 |
| | | | | Total | $49,900 | | | | | | | Total | $49,100 |
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| FD Cash | | | FD GPP |
| Pos | Player | Team | Opp | FPPG | Salary | | | Pos | Player | Team | Opp | FPPG | Salary |
| F/M | Marc Albrighton | LEI | ARS | 7.45 | $9 | | | F/M | Ismaila Sarr | WAT | NOR | 10.55 | $14 |
| F/M | Willian | CHE | CRY | 17.79 | $22 | | | F/M | Marc Albrighton | LEI | ARS | 7.45 | $9 |
| F/M | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | ARS | LEI | 20.06 | $21 | | | F/M | Willian | CHE | CRY | 17.79 | $22 |
| F/M | Christian Pulisic | CHE | CRY | 16.72 | $17 | | | F/M | Christian Pulisic | CHE | CRY | 16.72 | $17 |
| D | Ryan Bennett | LEI | ARS | 6.66 | $5 | | | D | Cesar Azpilicueta | CHE | CRY | 17.05 | $15 |
| D | Cesar Azpilicueta | CHE | CRY | 17.05 | $15 | | | D | Patrick van Aanholt | CRY | CHE | 14.03 | $14 |
| GK | Ben Foster | WAT | NOR | 9.42 | $8 | | | GK | Ben Foster | WAT | NOR | 9.42 | $8 |
| | | | | Total | $97 | | | | | | | Total | $99 |
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| FD Pivot Cash | | | FD Pivot GPP |
| Pos | Player | Team | Opp | FPPG | Salary | | | Pos | Player | Team | Opp | FPPG | Salary |
| F/M | Onel Hernandez | NOR | WAT | 6.73 | $8 | | | F/M | Ismaila Sarr | WAT | NOR | 10.55 | $14 |
| F/M | Willian | CHE | CRY | 17.79 | $22 | | | F/M | Nicolas Pepe | ARS | LEI | 13.60 | $16 |
| F/M | Ismaila Sarr | WAT | NOR | 10.55 | $14 | | | F/M | Willian | CHE | CRY | 17.79 | $22 |
| F/M | Christian Pulisic | CHE | CRY | 16.72 | $17 | | | F/M | Christian Pulisic | CHE | CRY | 16.72 | $17 |
| D | Jonny Evans | LEI | ARS | 14.18 | $12 | | | D | Cesar Azpilicueta | CHE | CRY | 17.05 | $15 |
| D | Cesar Azpilicueta | CHE | CRY | 17.05 | $15 | | | D | Ryan Bennett | LEI | ARS | 6.66 | $5 |
| GK | Ben Foster | WAT | NOR | 9.42 | $8 | | | GK | Ben Foster | WAT | NOR | 9.42 | $8 |
| | | | | Total | $96 | | | | | | | Total | $97 |
