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NFL Week 17 is somewhat bittersweet. I am a bit bummed this is the final week of NFL regular-season games to play on MonkeyKnifeFight, but I am excited to turn my attention to the NFL playoffs, the NBA, and perhaps even golf and soccer. But before we look too far ahead, let's focus on what we have right in front of us and that is the NFL Week 17 Star Shootout Early Games. Good Luck.

More or Less 2/2

Jameis Winston Under 317.5 Passing Yards

Winston has topped 317 passing yards in three straight games, though he was under in each of the three before that, including at Atlanta Week 12. Losing his top two receivers didn’t appear to hurt Winston too much against the Texans, and while Atlanta’s pass defense isn’t much better than Houston’s, it is better. I think this is the game where Winston and Breshad Perriman finally look like their old selves.

Matt Ryan Over 302.5 passing yards

Ryan has topped 302 passing yards in three of the last four weeks, and 10 of 14 games on the season. Tampa Bay ranks 28th in passing yards allowed per game, and there is a decent chance Ryan has to throw to keep up with the ever wild Jameis Winston .

RapidFire 4/4

Christian McCaffrey fantasy points vs. Patrick Mahomes +0.5

The Chargers held Mahomes to 15.2 fantasy points back in Week 11, and while Mahomes has been better than that the last two weeks, there are multiple scenarios in which Mahomes gets pulled early if it doesn’t look like the Chiefs will secure a first-round bye. McCaffrey has at least 24.5 fantasy points in eight of his last nine games, and my guess is Mahomes will go under 24.5 fantasy points.

Michael Thomas fantasy points vs. Matt Ryan +2.5

The Saints will play their starters in pursuit of a top-two seed, though it is certainly possible they will pull the starters early if they go up big. It’s also possible the Saints elect not to throw a ton, considering how vulnerable Carolina is on the ground. That being said, Thomas had 26.1 fantasy points against Carolina in Week 12, and at least 27.3 fantasy points in seven of his last eight games. The Bucs held Ryan to 7.6 fantasy points in Week 12, and he hasn’t topped 21.3 fantasy points since Week 6 against Arizona.

Jameis Winston Fantasy Points vs. Julio Jones +0.5

Winston has either gone over 24 fantasy points or under 15 fantasy points in six straight games. The same can be said for Julio. Julio struggled in the last matchup between these two teams, but I don’t think he will struggle again.

Tom Brady fantasy points vs. Drew Brees +0.5

Brady finally looked more like himself last week, and Miami ranks 31st in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Brees has topped 20 fantasy points in five of his last six games, including against Carolina. Brees’s weapons are far superior to Brady’s, and while I hate betting against Brady, I think I have to in this case.

Touchdown Dance

Alvin Kamara , Christian McCaffrey and Nick Chubb Over 2.5 touchdowns

Kamara only has four touchdowns this season, but two came last week. I’m hoping he’s having a late-season breakout similar to what Saquon Barkley has experienced the last couple of weeks. It certainly doesn’t hurt that he’s facing the worst run defense in the NFL. McCaffrey has 18 touchdowns on the season, second only to Aaron Jones . Chubb has eight touchdowns this season, and Cincinnati has allowed the fourth-most rushing touchdowns in the NFL. I think at least one of these backs will score two touchdowns, which means I only need one touchdown from one of the other backs. I’m awfully tempted to set the goal at 3.5 or even 4.5 touchdowns.

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