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I began my research into Monday’s PrizePicks NBA slate the same way I always do. I scanned the list of players with their matchups and wrote down four names that I wanted to include in this article, as well as whether I was picking over or under. Then I dove into the stats to be sure I had evaluated them correctly and also justify why I’m going to spend my hard-earned money on the pick. A funny thing happened. Of the four names I wrote down, only two made this list, and I switched one (DeAndre Jordan) from Under to Over.
In fact, I chose “OVER” for all four of my picks, which I believe is the first time I have done that. One of the things I love about PrizePicks is that the research overlaps with my normal NBA DFS research. When I choose “OVER” for a given player’s projected fantasy points, you can feel pretty confident that player will wind up in at least one DFS lineup as well.
This week I am playing a 3-pick entry, using the first three picks listed. If Myles Turner is ruled out, I would play a four-pick entry using the last pick as well.
Steve’s Picks for February 11, 2019
Dennis Smith Jr. at Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected Fantasy Points: 38.0
OVER
Dennis Smith Jr. finished with 34.8 fantasy points on Saturday against one of the best defensive teams in the NBA despite shooting 4-of-17 from the field. The Cavaliers have given up the fifth most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season. Since joining the Knicks, DSJ is taking 45 percent of his shots at the rim. That ranks in the 93rd percentile among combo guards per CleaningtheGlass. Cleveland ranks 21st in frequency of shots at the rim and 25th in field goal percentage allowed at the rim.
Andre Drummond vs Washington Wizards
Projected Fantasy Points: 48.3
OVER
Only four teams have allowed more fantasy points to opposing centers than the Wizards this season, and I doubt Bobby Portis can do much to change that. Drummond has topped 48.3 fantasy points in six of his last seven games.
DeAndre Jordan at Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected Fantasy Points: 34.4
OVER
DeAndre Jordan has reached 34.4 fantasy points in two of his four games with the Knicks, and the two games he came up short were against Detroit. Ante Zizic is questionable, and while I’m not convinced he can slow down DeAndre Jordan, I’m certain Kevin Love, Larry Nance Jr. and Channing Frye cannot. I’m taking the over either way, but I’ll feel that much better about it if Zizic is ruled out.
Domantas Sabonis vs. Charlotte Bobcats
Projected Fantasy Points: 30.8
OVER
Sabonis has been great in both of his games against Charlotte this season, though he played just 19 minutes in the first meeting after fouling out. Charlotte has allowed the eighth most fantasy points to opposing centers, and they don’t really have the size to matchup with Sabonis when he plays the four. If Myles Turner sits this is an easy call, but as with DeAndre Jordan, I’m taking the Over either way.