NFL Target Analysis: Week 4

What a difference a week makes. Week 4 saw 11 different receivers top 11 targets, after just two eclipsed that number in Week 3. Four different quarterbacks had at least 50 passing attempts in Week 4, and 13 quarterbacks had at least 40 attempts. Of course, it didn’t hurt that we had three different games go very deep into overtime. With everyone throwing the ball all over the yard in Week 4, it seems like everyone not named Mike Williams was targeted a ton. Many of those players won’t see so many targets most weeks, but Week 4 could be a hint at things to come for some. Let’s take a look at the season-long target leaders before we try to make sense of what we saw in Week 4 and what it means moving forward.

• Julio Jones has scored one more point than Calvin Ridley in PPR scoring even though Ridley leads the league with six receiving touchdowns and Jones still hasn’t found the end zone. I am inclined to think Ridley will slow down sooner than later, but the schedule looks awfully inviting, especially the next two weeks against Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay. I don’t
• JuJu Smith-Schuster is third in the NFL with 46 targets and eighth in receiving yards at 416. I doubt anyone who drafted him would complain about him finding the end zone just once, but it is crazy to think Smith-Schuster might actually have even more upside than what he has shown so far. On the other hand, if Le’Veon Bell does indeed return to the field Week 8, that could put a dent in the number of targets in Pittsburgh as well as Smith-Schuster’s share.
• Dede Westbrook is my fourth receiver in a 16-team league, and I am torn between wanting to sell high and knowing he is one injury away from probably being a flex play for me. I like Westbrook as a player, but I don’t think he is so much better than Keelan Cole and Donte Moncrief that I’ll ever be excited to start him. If there is any reason to believe Westbrook’s performance Sunday was the start of a breakout, it is that Westbrook is averaging 6.5 receptions and 106 receiving yards in the two games when Leonard Fournette has been hurt. Much like Le’Veon Bell’s absence has likely contributed to JuJu Smith-Schuster ’s target total, Leonard Fournette ’s latest injury could spell good things for Westbrook.
• Corey Davis actually had the most targets in the NFL in Week 4. He has now had weeks of 15, four, seven and 13 targets. If you want to take the most optimistic view, Davis is averaging 14.0 targets in games Marcus Mariota starts. Tennessee’s offense finally looked competent against a good Philadelphia defense in Week 4, so I think if I had to choose, I would take a fairly optimistic view.
• Jared Cook is second among tight ends in targets and receptions. He is first in receiving yards and tied for third with two touchdowns. I still don’t think I could bring myself to start him over anyone I consider good, but that list is pretty short. Cook ranks eighth for me among tight ends this week, and will probably stay there for the foreseeable future.
• T.Y. Hilton is tied for 16^th with 35 targets this season, so someone is going to see hits targets increase with Hilton out Thursday. Chester Rogers caught eight of 11 targets Sunday for 85 yards while Zach Pascal caught six of 10 targets for 56 yards and a touchdown. Ryan Grant , who is owned in far more leagues than the other two, caught just five of seven targets for 64 yards. All of those numbers were inflated by the Colts playing five quarters of football Sunday. With Hilton out, I tend to think of this passing offense similar to how I do about the Jaguars. All three receivers are solid but not great, and while one of them will probably have 100 receiving yards and a touchdown, I don’t think anyone has any idea which one will emerge on any given day.
• Tyler Boyd had 13 targets in Week 4 to bring his total for the season to 33. If there is any cold water to be thrown on Tyler Boyd it is that the Bengals are fourth in the NFL in points per game, and if you are skeptical they can keep this up for much longer, they you probably should feel the same way about Boyd.
• Taylor Gabriel has 28 targets on the season, but he just topped 35 yards for the first time in Week 4, when he caught seven of seven targets for 104 yards and two touchdowns. Gabriel is on pace for 116 targets, which would eclipse by far his previous career high of 71 in 2014 for the hapless Browns. I’m not convinced Gabriel is someone you should ever start outside of 16-team leagues, but he certainly appears to be ownable.
• Jordy Nelson had eight targets for the second consecutive game, finishing with 48 yards and a touchdown. Nelson was a distant third in targets to Amari Cooper and Jared Cook , which is the case in the season-long totals as well. Maybe Jared Cook will turn into a pumpkin, and maybe this offense will be good enough to support three pass catchers for fantasy, but I remain skeptical.
• Antonio Callaway just barely made the target leaderboard this week after catching three of nine targets Sunday. I think it may be best at this point to think of Callaway as a poor man’s Demaryius Thomas . Callaway has been targeted much further down field than Thomas, but Callaway’s catch percentage is just 42 percent. Callaway has the physical tools and target share to be a fantasy starter, but he hasn’t come particularly close to putting it all together during the first quarter of the season. Callaway has three drops on 24 targets, which is pretty comparable to Thomas’s five drops on 33 targets.
• Can Keke Coutee be the Golden Tate of the Houston Texans’ offense? Coutee caught 11 of 14 targets in Week 4 for 109 yards, but his 2.5 ADoT was absolutely minuscule. Even if he continues to lead the Texans in targets, which seems unlikely, his touchdown upside is probably limited.