Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox

Chicago Cubs -200

Games Total: 9

Game Play Predictions

Chicago Cubs

  • The Cubs had their first day off in a month Thursday, so they should be well-rested against their crosstown rival.
  • The Cubs went 19-11 over that stretch, including five of their last seven games.
  • The Cubs will face Reynaldo López , who has allowed one earned run across 20.0 innings in three starts in September. Lopez has 22 strikeouts and four walks in that stretch.
  • Lopez is making his first career start against the Cubs.
  • Lopez has a chance to continue his high September strikeout totals. The Cubs have a 25.1 percent strikeout rate over the last 30 days. Only the White Sox and Giants have struck out more over that span.
  • MVP candidate Javier Báez has been one of the lone bright spots of late, going 5-for-19 with two home runs over the last seven days.
  • The Cubs have the second lowest OPS in baseball at .582 over the last seven days.

Chicago White Sox

  • Former southsider José Quintana will face his former team for the first time since he was traded to the Cubs at midseason last year.
  • Quintana has a 3.59 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and .248 BAA in his career at Guaranteed Rate Field.
  • Quintana is coming off a loss in his last start, when he allowed two earned runs with seven strikeouts in 5.0 innings against the Reds.
  • The White Sox will be without José Abreu yet again as he deals with an infection in his right thigh.
  • The White Sox have struck out a ton all season, and that has been especially true of late. The White Sox have a 26.3 percent strikeout rate over the last 30 days.
  • Guaranteed Rate has long been considered a favorable park for hitters, but the White Sox have been unable to take advantage this season. Their .308 wOBA at home ranks 23rd in MLB.
  • The only White Sox who have faced Quintana are Welington Castillo and Avisail García , who are a combined 3-for-11 against Quintana.

 

Pre-Game Predictions

  1. A batter from either team takes 2 or more called strikes in the 1st Inning 3.5/2.

NO. The White Sox have the third-highest swing rate in MLB at 48.8 percent, with the Cubs close behind at 47.3 percent. I don’t know that Javier Báez has ever taken two called strikes in the same at-bat, and the same could probably go for Matt Davidson and a handful of his teammates. Reynaldo López has been around the plate a lot more often of late, so I think the Cubs will be looking to swing as well.

  1. Both teams combine to swing and miss 6 or more times in the 1st Inning 3/2.2

 YES. The White Sox have the highest swinging strike rate in baseball, and the Cubs rank 10th. When you combine two pitchers who are getting more than a strikeout per inning of late with two teams who swing and miss a ton, over is the easy call.

  1. A CHC batter swings at the first pitch of a plate appearance in the 1st Inning1.8/4

YES. I wish the payout for Yes was better, or that Javier Báez was guaranteed to bat in the first inning, but Daniel Murphy , Anthony Rizzo and especially Kris Bryant have all been known to come to the plate swinging right away.

  1. CHC leadoff batter swings at exactly 2 pitches 3.5/2.1 

YES. I’m chasing a better payout after going for relatively small payouts with the first three props. Beyond that, it is easy to picture one of the Cubs taking a called strike and then swinging-and-missing twice for a strikeout. And not to harp on Javier Báez again, but as a Cubs fan, I can tell you it feels like he never makes contact on the first swing of an at-bat.