NFL Target Analysis: Week 1

A lot of notable players had interesting target totals in Week 1. In future weeks, we may structure this article a bit differently, and spend less time on players with low target totals. For this week, however, we finally have some concrete data after months of speculation. While we probably shouldn’t draw too many firm conclusions from one game, there is no doubt we can learn something from who was targeted and who was not in Week 1. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the Week 1 target leaders before we bounce around to some performances that stood out.

Breakdowns

• The top four target leaders after Week 1 are not a surprise, and the fifth, Jarvis Landry , probably shouldn’t be. All of the people in Sunday’s Fantasy Alarm chat who asked panicked questions about sitting Jarvis Landry , often in light of the weather in Cleveland, turned out to be worrying for naught. Landry caught fewer than half of his 15 targets but still topped 100 yards, which was more than enough to make him startable, especially in PPR leagues. Landry lined up on the outside quite a bit and he had multiple targets deep downfield. His quarterback will probably hold him back all season, but at least for one game, he looked like more than just a possession receiver.
• The big surprises among the target leaders were Corey Davis and Melvin Gordon with 13 each. Gordon tied his career high with nine receptions, and while he probably isn’t going to challenge for the league lead in receptions for a running back, the Chargers would do well to utilize him in that part of the game every week. A couple of his receptions came with Kansas City playing prevent defense up 10 with less than three minutes left, and while you can’t count on those receptions every week, it was nice to see him in the game in that situation.
• Like Jarvis Landry , Corey Davis caught fewer than half of his targets in Week 1, and like Jarvis Landry , it remains to be seen how much of that inefficiency can be attributed to the weather and how much of the blame falls on the shoulders of poor quarterback play. Davis should have more touchdown upside than Landry, and if he stays among the leaders in targets, it may not matter who is throwing the ball.
• Any concern about Eric Ebron cutting into Jack Doyle ’s work appears to have been alleviated in Week 1. Ebron did catch four passes, including a 26-yard touchdown, but Doyle had six catches of his own for 60 yards.
• Another late-round tight end, George Kittle , turned nine targets into five receptions and 90 yards. He got open deep a couple of times but had a drop and an overthrow, but if you watch the Week 1 film, you consistently see him outrun linebackers either on deep routes or after the catch.
• I wouldn’t blame anyone who wants to see one more game before they start Kenny Golladay , but I’m a believer. He looked awfully good going over the middle as well as running after the catch. There should probably be room for all three Lions receivers most weeks considering Detroit doesn’t really have a tight end to speak of. Marvin Jones may have more big play ability, but I would be awfully tempted to start Golladay ahead of Jones this week.
• Theo Riddick wasn’t good Monday night—not many Lions were—but reports of his demise have been greatly overstated. Riddick had enough targets to matter for PPR leagues, and there are undoubtedly better days ahead of Matthew Stafford and the entire Detroit passing game.
• Nyheim Hines did his best Tarik Cohen impersonation Sunday, catching seven of his nine targets but totaling just 33 yards. Hines looked better than his numbers indicate, and he was hurt by a couple of terribly designed screen passes that both lost five yards. He was the running back when the Colts’ offense went up-tempo, and I suspect we will see that a lot going forward.
• Ryan Grant tied Hines with nine targets, and ultimately did a lot more with them, with eight receptions for 59 yards. Grant’s ceiling is limited if he is fighting with Hines and Doyle for the non-T.Y. Hilton targets. Also, Andrew Luck probably isn’t going to throw the ball 53 times in too many games this season.
• Phillip Dorsett certainly looked like a quicker version of Julian Edelman for one game, and while I don’t expect a lot of touchdowns or a 100 percent catch rate, I think he is probably startable in deep leagues.
• Brandon Marshall led the Seahawks with six targets, while Will Dissly was close behind with five. Marshall is probably going to be good for at least one offensive pass interference call per game, but the refs can’t call him every time, and he certainly looked like he had gas in the tank in this game.
• Jimmy Graham probably still has touchdown upside, but he is only startable in shallow leagues because of the injuries to Delanie Walker and Greg Olsen . I would definitely start George Kittle and Kyle Rudolph ahead of Graham.
• It seems insane to suggest you can buy low on someone who caught 10 passes on 19 targets for 169 yards, but if Julio’s owner is panicking about his lack of touchdowns, I’m buying. One of those 19 targets was a 52 yard reception the officials somehow missed, even on replay. Matt Ryan likely had his worst game of the season, especially in the red zone, and Julio’s going to score touchdowns eventually.
• It is with a heavy heart that I must admit that Cole Beasley is a thing again. He has never topped five touchdowns in a season, and that is probably his ceiling for 2018, but he probably needs to be owned in PPR leagues after he caught seven of his eight targets for 73 yards Sunday.
• Feel free to drop Calvin Ridley . Matt Ryan will have better games, and the play calling can only get better, but Ridley was barely noticeable on film. It is still possible Ridley emerges as the unquestioned number two receiver in Atlanta, but even if that happens, there is no reason to believe that role would be particularly profitable for fantasy.
• I suppose there is a scenario in which Carson Wentz returns before Alshon Jeffery and Mike Wallace becomes playable for fantasy, but that doesn’t seem particularly likely. Foles will take 1-2 deep shots to Wallace per game, and while those targets may be worth a roster spot if they came from Carson Wentz , they certainly aren’t when they come from Nick Foles .
• Anyone who saw increased upside for Nelson Agholor with Alshon Jeffery out probably has to concede they were wrong. Agholor was targeted a ton, but almost exclusively on short throws. He will almost certainly have more value when Wentz is throwing, but Agholor is just another possession receiver, in the mold of Jamison Crowder or Sterling Shepard . Agholor is a WR2/Flex in PPR, but there is no reason to believe his ceiling is particularly high.
• It was troubling to see Giovani Bernard reduced to a single target, while Joe Mixon was targeted seven times, but I wouldn’t be in a rush to drop him. Bernard is a good running back, especially in the passing game, and as good as Joe Mixon is, it would still be surprising if Bernard is nothing more than an afterthought in this offense.
• Ty Montgomery still has a role for the Packers and in PPR leagues, but it doesn’t look like he is going to be much more than another solid pass-catching running back barring an injury or two in Green Bay’s backfield.
• Rishard Matthews was not targeted Sunday. I’m chalking it up to a combination of weather and being on a pitch count due to his torn meniscus. I get it if you want to bail, especially because Marcus Mariota looked awful Sunday, but I’m giving Matthews one more week before I cut him.