PLAY DraftEasy for Indians vs. Twins and Phillies vs. Giants Tonight with the information below – Click Here to get in the game.
I have noticed a trend lately in my DraftEasy Over/Under picks that I have tended to have more lineups in which I pick all UNDER or all OVER. My initial reaction when that happens is to want to go back and change one of the picks, especially in a contest where I have to get all of the picks correct. I usually resist this impulse. As much as I can, I try to treat each Over/Under individually. There is obviously some overlap between the pitchers and the hitters they are facing, but beyond that, each Over/Under is a unique circumstance, so I try to consider them independently of each other. If I think José Ramírez will go over 1.5 TB in this game, why would I change that just because I had picked the Over on the three previous props? Besides, if the game is high scoring, it wouldn’t be shocking to see the overs all hit, anyway.
To mix it up a bit this week, I am picking the 3/4 contest for Indians vs. Twins and the 4/4 contest for Phillies vs. Giants. That means we will double our money in the first game if we get three out of four correct, and while in the second game we will look to win 5X our money by getting all five correct.
CLE @ MIN 3/4
Carlos Carrasco 1.5 BB: OVER
Carrasco has 16 walks in 11 starts this season, and he has gone over 1.5 BB in five of those starts. The Twins rank eighth in MLB in walk rate, and even though they managed just one walk against Carrasco back in April, I’m going over.
José Berrios 4.5 HA: OVER
Berrios has allowed a .205 BAA this season, and he has allowed 5+ hits in six of his 11 starts this season and three of his five starts in May. Cleveland is 21st in MLB in walk rate and strikeout rate, so they put the ball in play a fair amount.
Michael Brantley 0.5 R+RBI: OVER
Michael Brantley has been my fantasy Kryptonite for years, and my default setting is to say yes to Brantley whenever he is healthy. In this case, the numbers appear to back that up. Brantley has recorded at least one run or RBI in 12 consecutive games and 22 of 27 games in May.
José Ramírez 1.5 TB: OVER
Ramirez has 25 total bases in his last seven games, and he has gone over 1.5 TB in four of his last five games. If José Berrios is going to allow more than 4.5 hits, José Ramírez will probably have one or two of them.
PHI @ SF 4/4
Nick Pivetta 2.5 BB: UNDER
Pivetta has allowed 14 walks in 11 starts this season, and that alone seems to strongly suggest going under. He has walked two batters or fewer in nine of his 11 starts this season including each of his last four. For their part, the Giants rank 24th in MLB in walk rate at 7.8 percent.
Chris Stratton 2.5 ER: UNDER
Stratton has allowed at least three earned runs in six consecutive starts, but before that he had gone four consecutive starts without allowing more than two earned runs. The Phillies are 17th in runs scored this season, though they have scored more than four runs in just two of their last 11 games. The Phillies’ .293 wOBA on the road ranks 25th in MLB.
Andrew McCutchen 0.5 R+RBI: UNDER
McCutchen has one run and one RBI over his last eight games, despite just finishing up a three-game set in Coor’s Field. To make matters worse, the run and RBI came in the same game. McCutchen has been hitting better of late, going 7-for-19 in his last five games, but again, three of those games were in Colorado.
César Hernández 1.5 TB: UNDER
Hernandez has gone over 1.5 TB in just three of his last 10 games. He only has 17 extrabase hits in 54 games. He also has 14 multi-hit games on the season.