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I love playoff basketball. I love dissecting the matchups, and seeing how coaches try to exploit favorable matchups while going to extremes to avoid poor ones. I love seeing the adjustments each team makes from game to game. I love seeing which players are able to perform consistently across multiple games on the biggest stage. I also love analyzing all of those things to try to anticipate what will happen next, which is where DraftEasy’s Over/Under game comes in.
It isn’t enough to just analyze the trends and guess whether or not they will continue. We also have to take into considering which adjustments the coaches will make. Just because Kyle Korver should play 30+ minutes doesn’t mean he will, especially if Indiana finally takes advantage of his below average defense. After watching the same teams play five consecutive games, we have a lot of data to analyze in breaking down our over/unders. It doesn’t necessarily make it any easier to predict, but I would argue it makes it more fun.
CLE @ IND
Victor Oladipo 5.5 AST: OVER
Oladipo is averaging 5.2 APG in the postseason but he has not topped five assists in either of his last two games. He was great in the first two games of the series, but has struggled since. I have to believe Indiana will do a better job of spacing the floor and making LeBron James guard on the perimeter than they did in Game 5, and that should open things up for Oladipo to create shots for himself and others.
Kyle Korver 3.5 3PM: OVER
It probably isn’t a coincidence Korver has made at least four three-pointers in each Cavaliers win and he was held scoreless in both of the losses. The Cavs have a 7.6 Net Rating when Korver is on the floor with LeBron James, and unless Indiana is able to punish Korver on the defensive end, he should continue to play heavy minutes and get a ton of threes.
Myles Turner 7.5 REB: OVER
Turner has played fewer than 25 minutes in each of the last two games, mostly due to foul trouble. If that is the case again in this game, he will struggle to get to eight rebounds. Turner’s strong play early in the series is one of the reasons Indiana jumped out to a 2-1 series lead, and he topped 7.5 rebounds in two of those games. Turner probably has to play 30+ minutes for Indiana to win this game, and if that is the case, he probably goes over.
Thaddeus Young 2.5 STL+BS: OVER
Young had nary a block or steal in Game 5 after going over 2.5 STL+BS in each of his three previous games. This probably comes down to how much time Young spends guarding LeBron James. James don’t turn the ball over or have his shot blocked much, which is probably why Young was shut out in those categories Wednesday night. Young wasn’t particularly effective guarding LeBron in Game 5, and I suspect he spends more time guarding other players in Game 6.
OKC @ UTAH
Joe Ingles 6.5 AST: UNDER
I can’t for the life of me figure out why this line is so high. Ingles has not topped four assists in any game in this series. He did average 4.8 APG during the regular season, but with the way the Thunder are guarding him in this series, 6.5 assists seems unrealistic.
Steven Adams 9.5 REB: UNDER
Much like Ingles, Adams hasn’t come close to this number in this series. Perhaps he is due for a big game, but the Jazz ranked seventh in the NBA in rebounding rate during the regular season. Adams did not top nine rebounds in any of his four regular season matchups with Utah either, and Rudy Gobert missed two of those games.
Donovan Mitchell 3.5 3PM: UNDER
Finally we have a line that is easier to understand. Mitchell has actually gone over in this series, but it only happened once, in Game 3. Mitchell has taken at least seven threes in every game in this series, but he isn’t Kyle Korver. He needs to either take more threes or shoot better on them to go over, and while he is certainly capable, it is far more likely he goes under again.
Derrick Favors 2.5 STL+BS: UNDER
Favors is averaging 1.2 blocks and 0.6 steals per game in the postseason; those are nearly identical to his regular season numbers. Favors played just 24 minutes Wednesday due to foul trouble and the fact Carmelo Anthony was on the bench for most of the fourth quarter. Favors has destroyed Carmelo in this series but he does not match up nearly as well with Jerami Grant. If I knew for sure that Favors would play 30+ minutes I would probably go over, but even then, it would be a close call.
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