American League Championship Series
Game 2
8.5 Over/Under
Tampa Bay (-125)
Of interest in this match-up, Petco Park has yielded 32 home runs in nine games this postseason. Tampa Bay represents a benefactor of this with 26 of its 34 runs (76.5 percent) in the playoffs as a result of a home run. Houston could also send some sneaky bats into this contest.
Tampa Bay Rays to target
Charlie Morton, SP - Logged five workmanlike innings versus the Yankees allowing four hits, two runs (one earned) and two walks with six strikeouts. He faces his former franchise in this match-up. He may only work five innings once again, but with a deep bullpen behind him, Morton could get the win if his offense comes through versus McCullers Jr.
Randy Arozarena, OF - Launched his fourth home run of the postseason last night and owns a .419 (13-for-31) in it with nine runs, five RBI, two doubles and a triple. He was a boom or bust option against RHP in the regular season but hit three home runs along with stealing four bases in 53 plate appearances and a .817 OPS in them. Arozarena’s hit 11 home runs including the playoffs since September second for the Rays.
Brandon Lowe, 2B - Snapped a hitless streak with an infield hit Sunday night but it’s Lowe’s power versus RHP which puts him on the radar against McCullers Jr. this afternoon. Lowe recorded 16 extra-base hits (six doubles, two triples, eight home runs) versus RHP in the regular season with a .259 average, .238 isolated power and .838 OPS.
Austin Meadows, OF - Perhaps a platoon player this postseason, Meadows homered off of Gerrit Cole in Game 5 and 12 of his 22 hits in the regular season resulted in extra-bases (seven doubles, triple, four home runs). Missing time in the regular season due to COVID and injury issues may depress his ownership but with Petco producing power results, Meadows should not be ignored.
Joey Wendle, 3B - Hitting .316 (six-for-19) this postseason, Wendle also hit .284 against RHP in the regular season with 14 extra-base hits and six stolen bases. Points come in many forms in the playoffs and Wendle could produce a multiple hit game with a run or an RBI plus a steal.
Manuel Margot, OF - Tied for second in the American League with nine stolen bases in the regular season, Margot also represents a low owned dart throw. Margot also hit .284 versus RHP in the regular season with 20 runs plus RBI and nine walks fueling his nine stolen bases facing them.
Kevin Kiermaier, OF - Playing the hot hand, Kiermaier’s racked up five extra-base hits (four doubles, one home run) his last four postseason contests. He produced two doubles in a Game 1 win over Houston.
Houston Astros to target
Jose Altuve, 2B - Homered in Game 1 producing the Astros only run last night. Altuve has surged this postseason hitting .400 (8-for-20) with three home runs and six RBI. He’s a career .297 hitter (63-for-212) versus the Rays with 11 home runs, gone 4-for-13 in past match-ups facing Morton with a double and two home runs in them good for a .930 expected slugging percentage.
Kyle Tucker, OF - On a seven game postseason hit streak, Tucker rates as the Astros best hitter against fastballs and third best versus curves, the two primary pitches for Morton. Tucker generated 11 doubles, five triples and five home runs against RHP in the regular season with a .293/.355/.550 slash line good for a .257 isolated power. Factor in Tucker’s postseason .381 average (8-for-21) to the Petco power perk for a nice target on this slate.
Michael Brantley, OF - Batted .331 facing RHP in the regular season for Houston with 11 doubles, four home runs and 36 runs plus RBI. He’s more of an accumulatore but Brantley remains a steady presence in the Astros lineup with upside on a daily basis. He’s 8-for-22 (.364) so far in the playoffs with two home runs and five RBI.
Martin Maldonado, C - For the batter versus pitcher crowd, Maldonado’s 7-for-13 versus Morton over their career match-ups with a double in them. If looking for a cheap pivot at catcher, Maldonado could pay off if he maintains his success against Morton.
National League Championship Series
Game 1
8.0 over/under
Dodgers (-138)
Riding the waves of sweeps, the Dodgers and Braves will start a seven game series in Texas, a park which favored pitchers while depressing power this season. This could help each team but Los Angeles plated 12 runs with an approach centered on contact which could benefit them this evening against Max Fried who only lasted four innings versus Miami.
Los Angeles Dodgers to target
Walker Buehler, SP - Buehler’s recorded at least seven strikeouts in eight straight postseason starts in his career including eight in each game during these playoffs against Milwaukee and San Diego. Buehler only logged four innings versus the Padres but his limited exposure to Atlanta’s lineup and strikeout upside make him the top target on the mound tonight.
Will Smith, C - Was hitless in 11 at-bats this postseason until a five-hit explosion in Game 3 versus the Padres. Smith hit two doubles and drove in three runs during the clinching contest. He also hit .348 in September with 10 extra-base hits and 14 RBI in only 18 games. He also hit .294 in the regular season against LHP with five doubles, six walks and a .400 on-base percentage over 40 plate appearances.
Justin Turner, 3B - Owns the second best batting average in Dodger history in the postseason at .294 with 64 hits in 218 career at-bats. Turner’s hit 13 doubles and nine home runs in the playoffs. He also reached base 36.8 percent of his plate appearances in the regular season facing LHP with 17 runs plus RBI and eight walks. In only four at-bats against Fried in prior meetings, Turner’s recorded three hits including a home run for a .918 expected slugging percentage.
A.J. Pollock, OF - Not only did Pollock tie Mookie Betts for the Dodger lead in home runs this regular season with 16, but Pollock rakes LHP to the tune of a .345/.367/.818 slash line with seven home runs and 28 runs plus RBI. His .473 isolated power should serve him well in tonight’s match-up plus his hit and walk in three plate appearances versus Fried in the past with a .453 expected batting average.
Corey Seager, SS - For the reverse split crowd, Seager owned a .232 isolated power versus LHP this season and could come through against the Braves bullpen once they enter the contest.
Atlanta Braves to target
Freddie Freeman, 1B - As noted in the past, Freeman hit a robust .373/.495/.733 against RHP this regular season with 36 walks versus 24 strikeouts plus a .360 isolated power. He snapped a hitless streak in Game 3 with two hits and has faced Buehler seven times in the past with his only hit being a home run for a .858 expected slugging rate.
Travis d’Arnaud, C - Riding the wave of a five game hit streak in the playoffs, d’Arnaud’s eight-for-his-last-19 (.421) including two home runs. He fared better against RHP in the regular season with a .344 average, 1.026 OPS, eight doubles, nine home runs and 31 RBI.
Ozzie Albies, 2B - HIt .289 versus RHP in the regular season with six home runs and 32 runs plus RBI in 95 plate appearances. He’s also 2-for-7 in past at-bats facing Buehler with a .435 expected batting average and .672 expected slugging percentage.