New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals 7:08 EST
Odds: Yankees -135, Nationals +120, Over/Under 7.5 runs
Welcome back to baseball with a prolific matchup set to make history if Mother Nature allows. Gerrit Cole facing Max Scherzer will mark the first time two pitchers with 300 strikeout seasons in their career match-up on Opening Day. Cole could also match a record set by Pedro Martnez if he records at least 10 strikeouts. Last year, Cole struck out 10 or more in each of his last nine starts sitting within one game of the mark set by Martinez (1999-2000).
Getting the defending World Series champions with their ace on the mound facing the newly anointed ace of the Yankees staff whose team lost to Washington last year seems too good to be true. Delving into each pitcher's splits from last year, both could rack up double digit strikeouts in this contest but each yields solo home runs in their outings. Here’s the tale of the tape using last year’s regular season results:
Gerrit Cole - 20 -5, 212.1 IP, 326:48 K:BB, 2.50 ERA, 2.64 FIP, 0.89 WHIP
Splits versus left-handed hitters: 417 total batters faced, 17 home runs, 182:30 K:BB, .175/.235/.352, .249 wOBA
Splits versus right-handed hitters: 400 total batters faced, 12 home runs, 144:18 K:BB, .198/.238/.332, .243 wOBA
Away: 2.36 ERA, .199/.259/.362, .264 wOBA
Max Scherzer - 11 - 7, 172.1 IP, 243:33 K:BB, 2.92 ERA, 2.45 FIP, 1.03 WHIP
Splits versus left-handed hitters: 328 total batters faced, 11 home runs, 102:23 K:BB, .255/.317/.446, .321 wOBA
Splits versus right-handed hitters: 365 total batters faced, seven home runs, 141:10 K:BB, .193/.220/.307, .275 wOBA
Home: 3.16 ERA, .224/.272/.378, .275 wOBA
With two elite pitchers who generate swings and misses face tough lineups, it’s tough to predict how it will play out. Bullpen depth leans towards the Yankees as does power but the Nationals found ways to win last postseason. Cole allows more home runs to left-handed hitters, as does Scherzer with both keeping traffic off the bases keying their success.
Since this game could be lower scoring than the nightcap, investing in either arm makes sense but with caveats. On Draft Kings, Scherzer comes at a much more palatable rate perhaps caused by his rough debut in Philadelphia over the weekend coughing up two three run home runs to left-handed bats (Didi Gregorius , Bryce Harper ). His ability to overcome adversity makes him one to target on DK but Cole could be the way to hedge on Fan Duel with an easier path to build a lineup with minimum priced bats.
As for the hitters, starting with New York, only two left-handed bats project to start on Thursday: Aaron Hicks and Brett Gardner . A wild card could be Tyler Wade , but he’s a speed guy not a power hitter. Hicks returns from Tommy John surgery and went hitless in three exhibition at-bats this week with two walks. He may not be ready to turn a Scherzer fastball around. Gardner hit 13 of his 28 home runs last year against right-handed pitching on the road slashing .275/.350/.566 in the process. His .291 isolated power over 189 at-bats in this split may be enticing. Although Aaron Judge will get the hype hitting three home runs his last two exhibition contests, Luke Voit could be sneaky. He accrued 164 at-bats on the road against right-handed pitching hitting .299/.413/.561 with 11 home runs. Voit also went 2-for-4 his last two games with a home run and two walks.
For the home hitters, Howie Kendrick may hit cleanup as the first universal designated hitter in the National League. Kendrick surged last year ranking as a Statcast hero finishing with an expected batting average of .330 and expected slugging of .615 recording a hard hit in over 47 percent of his batted ball data. In 2019 at home versus right-handed pitching, Kendrick slashed .369/.430/.602 with a .233 isolated power and .431 weighted on-base average (wOBA). More encouraging, Kendrick produced a .667 expected slugging against fastballs. He’s been hot since joining summer camp going four for his last seven with three runs, two doubles, a home run and five RBI.
Adam Eaton hit .290/.397/.465 versus right-handed pitching at home with 18 extra-base hits in 200 at-bats last year. Many will be on Eric Thames since he can turn on about any fastball. Thames launched 23 home runs against right-handed pitching last year in 346 at-bats along with an .877 on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS). Juan Soto hit 28 of his 34 home runs off of right-handed pitchers in 2019 slashing .304/.416/.608 against them at home with a .304 isolated power.
Solo home runs and strikeouts may dictate who wins this game or which pitcher blinks first in this match-up. Both rack up strikeouts which pad DFS results, so which way one leans dictates who to use and may include the win bonus. Truly, the discount on DK favors Scherzer while using Cole on Fan Duel could be a way to gain variance.
Top-Tier: Gerrit Cole , Max Scherzer , Howie Kendrick
Mid-Tier: Luke Voit , Brett Gardner , Eric Thames , Adam Eaton , Juan Soto , Aaron Judge
**INJURY UPDATE - Juan Soto has tested positive for Covid-19 and will not be in tonight's lineup**
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers 10:08 EST
Odds: Dodgers -305, Giants +246, Over/Under 8 runs
On the other end of the spectrum, Los Angeles enters their Opening Night as a heavy home favorite with their prolific star on the mound. Clayton Kershaw owns a minuscule 1.05 career ERA on Opening Day. As for the bats, this game leans much more to their favor so with some weather concerns in Washington, getting bats from both sides of this game may be more profitable from a scoring standpoint as well as more safety in getting at-bats all nine innings.
San Francisco will try to morph its lineup getting more right-handed bats atop it as evidenced in their exhibition game against Oakland when Austin Slater led off with Wilmer Flores batting second. This presents some bargain plays even if using Kershaw as the chalk pitcher on the slate on both Draft Kings and Fan Duel due to his pricing and past successes starting the season strong.
Following suit, first, here’s the pitching tale of the tape but since Cueto’s missed most of the last two years, his statistics reflect his last three years but his splits from 2017, his last full season, while Kershaw's will be last year’s:
Johnny Cueto - 13 - 12, 223.1 IP, 198:76 K:BB, 4.19 ERA, 4.51 FIP, 1.35 WHIP
Splits versus left-handed hitters: 343 total batters faced, 11 home runs, .286/.346/.417, .351 wOBA
Splits versus right-handed hitters: 305 total batters faced, 11 home runs, .268/.343/.450, .342 wOBA
Away: 4.44 ERA, 13 home runs, .339 wOBA
Clayton Kershaw - 16 - 5, 178.1 IP, 189:41 K:BB, 3.03 ERA, 3.86 FIP, 1.04 WHIP
Splits versus left-handed hitters: 157 total batters faced, five home runs, 40:9 K:BB, .208/.258/.382, .270 wOBASplits versus right-handed hitters: 549 total batters faced, 23 home runs, 149:32 K:BB, .225/.273/.398, .284 wOBAHome: 2.89 ERA, 18 home runs (14 by RHH), .301 wOBA
INJURY UPDATE - Clayton Kershaw has been placed on IL -- Dustin May is starting in his place.
Kershaw could be vulnerable to a solo home run or two as evidenced by his home splits last year as noted. Cueto could be like a box of chocolates with no one knowing how healthy, how many pitches he can throw or how effective he will be. When he last faced the Dodgers on September 27th of last year, he ceded five earned runs on five hits and three home runs in only two innings of work. Joc Pederson (108.8 MPH exit velocity), Corey Seager (106 MPH exit velocity) and Cody Bellinger (106.9 MPH exit velocity) all went yard against Cueto in the late season match-up.
Since the Dodgers enter as heavy favorites, their bats will be popular. Although Joc Pederson will not be leading off, he hit .252 against right-handed pitching last year including all 36 of his home runs. At home, Pederson reaches another level slashing .281/.382/.694 versus right handers averaging a home run every 8.2 at-bats (24 home runs in 196 AB) with a robust 35.8 home run per fly ball rate and 54.4 hard hit percentage.
Corey Seager hit for more power in the second half of last year, getting fully healthy and tied for the National League lead in doubles (44). Since 2016, Seager’s 122 doubles ranks 15th in the league despite missing most of 2018 to injury. In exhibition games, including spring and summer, Seager’s 15-for-34 (.441) and his last three games yields five hits in eight at-bats with three runs, two doubles, an RBI and a walk.
Saying to play Cody Bellinger at home does not take much insight. However, he launched 29 home runs facing right-handed pitching last year with a .317/.416/.645 slash and .328 isolated power. When at home, his isolated power rises to .340 and Bellinger hit 17 of his 29 home runs at Chavez Ravine with a home run every 11.1 at-bats, a 26.6 home run per fly ball rate and 52.6 hard hit percentage.
Newly acquired and signed Mookie Betts may wish to coronate his arrival in Los Angeles with a strong debut. Betts rates as a reverse splits hitter batting .304 with a .945 OPS against right-handed pitching last year and gets a boost from the ballpark effects in this move along with the deep lineup. He hit 23 of his 29 home runs last season against righties and went 3-for-6 this week in exhibition contests with three runs, a double, a home run and three RBI.
Another right-handed bat one may use, Justin Turner . Third base proves a bit light if not using a Yankee against Max Scherzer , so Turner’s 15 home runs and .292 average against right-handed arms last season may entice DFS players. At home against them, Turner’s average rose slightly to .298 with 10 home runs in 161 at-bats, a .217 isolated power and 46.3 hard hit rate.
Last, but not least, Los Angeles kept Edwin Ríos on the roster. He could garner the designated hitter at-bats on Thursday. If he does, Rios could be a slate breaker as a low owned GPP dart. In Triple-A last year, Rios slashed .270/.340/.617 in 104 games spanning 393 at-bats hitting 31 home runs. He also logged 47 at-bats with the Dodgers last season in September hitting four more dingers. Rios hit a home run every 11.9 at-bats against right-handed pitching and on Fan Duel, he’s at minimum salary for your use at third base or utility. (Please note, Rios will be first base on DK, third base on FD).
For San Francisco, Austin Slater could lead off and racked up three hits in five at-bats this week facing Sean Manaea of the A’s with two doubles and drove in five runs. Not saying Slater could repeat this sort of success against Kershaw, but Slater owned a .838 OPS versus southpaws last year with six doubles and two home runs in 80 at-bats with a hard hit rate just below 50 percent.
Wilmer Flores also proves intriguing if he bats second. In 2019, Flores finished with a flurry and slashed .337/.367/.615 against left-handed pitching with a .279 isolated power and .405 wOBA in 109 plate appearances. With catcher being slim pickings, Tyler Heineman could be a low priced flier as well. At Triple-A in 2019, Heineman hit .345/.368/.564 facing left-handed pitching with four doubles and two home runs in 55 at-bats. In 2018 at Double-A, he slashed .321/.403/.566 versus southpaws with more walks (eight) than strikeouts (six) in 61 plate appearances.
Here’s how the players shape up for Thursday night in this contest:
Top-Tier: Clayton Kershaw , Joc Pederson , Corey Seager , Cody Bellinger
Mid-Tier: Mookie Betts , Justin Turner , Austin Slater , Wilmer Flores
Punt/Value: Tyler Heineman, Jaylin Davis, Edwin Ríos