Amidst the fallout of the cheating controversy, fantasy owners trying to assess how to value Jose Altuve could be intriguing. Altuve displayed a power spike in 2016 hitting 24 home runs and followed it up in 2017 when the reported trashcan alerts began. Limited to 137 games in 2018, Altuve only hit 13 home runs but in even fewer games last year, launched a career high 31. Wait, what? Fueled by a scorching second half, Altuve surged to a .325/.375/.622 slash after the All-Star break leading the American League in hits (93) and total bases (178) while finishing tied for third in home runs (21).

Taking this with a grain of salt, along with the knowledge of the livelier baseballs in play last season, other factors emerged in his batted ball profile. Altuve increased his pull percentage to a career high 41.7-percent on Statcast. His swing percentage decreased but he suffered a rise in whiff percent and traded contact percentage as well. Hindered by a 50.7 ground ball rate, Altuve traded some discipline for power maximizing his line drives and fly balls pulling them towards the short porch in Minute Maid Park where Altuve hit 18 of his 31 home runs. This can be seen in his spray chart:

This marks a shift in Altuve’s philosophy from racking up 200 or more hits in both 2016 and 2018 to seeking more power. Plus, Altuve only stole six bases in 2019 while only attempting only 11 stolen bases. Injuries to Altuve probably contributed to his low success rate, but it’s something to monitor in regards to his value going forward. With steals being such a sought-after commodity, an uninterested Altuve in terms of stolen bases could affect his ability of being a five tool fantasy option.

All told, Altuve appeared in 124 games last season with 89 runs, 31 home runs, 74 RBI, six stolen bases and a .298/.353/.550 slash line. He owned a 7.5 walk percentage with a 15-percent strikeout rate. Due to his power surge, Altuve notched career highs in isolated power (.252) and home runs per fly ball percentage (23.3-percent). Do not forget his propensity to produce ground balls which inflates his home run per fly ball rates.

Of more interest, Altuve recorded the highest swinging strike percentage (nine-percent) of his career, his lowest contact percent (80.8) and worst Z-Contact (in the strike zone) rate of 86.9 percent. At the end of his career, one can look back and see if 2019 proves to be Altuve’s outlier or a signal of him adapting his approach moving ahead.

According to Statcast, Altuve registered 422 batted ball events with 34 barrels (8.1-percent), an 86.1 MPH average exit velocity and 8.8-degree launch angle. Even with the spike in home runs, especially in the second half, Altuve only produced a 34.5 hard hit percentage and 29.4 sweet spot percent. His average exit velocity ranked 244th in the majors which clouds any sort of repeat of 30 home runs to Altuve’s resume. Also, his maximum exit velocity of 109.3 MPH rates 187th and his maximum home run distance of 448 feet places him 88th among his peers.

Given all of the data provided, Altuve’s expected numbers suggest some luck due to his .282 expected batting average and .492 expected slugging percentage. Plus, Altuve’s expected weighted on-base average of .350 sits 24 points below his actual. Here’s his zone profile courtesy of Statcast:

For the first time since 2013, Altuve did not hit over .300 and his expected numbers suggest it could have been lower than his .298 finish to the year salvaged by a strong second half. How much of this occurred to the “cheating” will never be known, but it weighs in valuing Altuve going forward. It seems he’s likely to hit at or above .300 if Altuve can handle the constant barrage of boos and derision he and his team will incur this season. Knowing Altuve provided batting average insulation prior to 2017, this seems like a more bankable commodity. Forecasting the power and stolen bases comes with more trepidation.

Viewing his projection sets, all three systems believe in Altuve the player, without worrying about all the circumspect information:

  • Jose Altuve 2020 Steamer Projections: 149 games, 669 plate appearances, 99 runs, 24 home runs, 92 RBI, 12 stolen bases; .296/.361/.487
  • Jose Altuve 2020 ATC Projections: 144 games, 628 plate appearances, 96 runs, 24 home runs, 82 RBI, 11 stolen bases; .303/.366/.500
  • Jose Altuve 2020 THE BAT Projections: 149 games, 649 plate appearances, 100 runs, 25 home runs, 89 RBI, 15 stolen bases; .306/.370/.501

At a slightly reduced price point, Jose Altuve should be a steady source of runs, 20-plus home runs (with a cap of 24) and double digit stolen bases. With his strong track record of batting average upside, hitting at or over .300 could be in the offing as long as Altuve does not get pull heavy like last season. Pay for the Steamer projection and there’s room for profit if Altuve steals 15 or more bases, but do not expect this total to rise much further unless he’s aggressive early in the year.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

Steamerprojections.com

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty