Working with reduced velocity in spring training, signal alarms perhaps sounded too soon by fantasy pundits, including myself. Pegging Aroldis Chapman as a player to avoid last year, he finished tied for third in the majors with 37 saves while the Yankees monitored his workload maximizing his outings. Chapman failed to exceed 60 innings for the fourth straight season and failed to reach 100 strikeouts since 2015. Not pitching in three straight contests all kept Chapman fresh even though a controversial home run by Jose Altuve remains in our memory from the American League Championship.

All told, Chapman won three of his five decisions over 57 innings with 85 strikeouts against 25 walks, a 2.21 ERA, 2.86 xFIP and 1.11 WHIP. His average fastball velocity dipped to 98 MPH, imagine this being a mark for decline. Chapman registered a 36.2-percent strikeout rate with a 10.6-percent walk rate. His swinging strike percentage fell to 14.1 giving up contact 70.2-percent of the time. There are some cracks in the foundation, but Chapman overcame them with a strong defense behind him and getting outs when they mattered most.

Here’s his pitch plot from last season:

It’s sort of funny seeing the one change-up above, almost like an afterthought. Working with reduced fastball velocity did not cause Chapman’s ERA to spike, but his WHIP finished above one for the third straight season. It appears he’s a pitcher in transition for the fantasy community. Not falling off a cliff or anything, but his reality sits below his perception. Chapman owned a 21.6-percent strikeout rate with his four-seam fastball using it 5.7-percent more often last year. His slider yielded more strikeouts with a 44.6-percent strikeout rate. But, he generated more swings with fewer misses overall in 2019. Here’s Chapman’s same chart with swings and misses by pitch:

Using his batted ball data, Chapman fared well reducing hard contact. He allowed 123 batted ball events last year giving up only six barrels (4.9-percent), an average exit velocity of 85.9 MPH and an 11.7-degree launch angle. More impressive, Chapman only ceded a 29.3-percent hard hit rate, lower than his output in 2018. A rare feat last season. His zone profile illustrates how well Chapman’s expected statistics finished:

Chapman recorded a .196 expected batting average mitigating hard hits with a .283 expected slugging percentage and .260 expected weighted on-base average. One thing to monitor, Chapman possessed a 42.3-percent ground ball rate according to Statcast last year but his line drive percentage rose to 30.9-percent. If they elevate and leave the yard, it will affect his final ratio statistics. Nothing to panic over, but worth noting beneath the small hard hit surface data.

When viewing his projections, focus on the innings with the numbers listed above as a reference point. Remember, Chapman last exceeded 60 innings in 2015 (also note, ZiPS does not include saves in its projection sets):

  • Aroldis Chapman 2020 Steamer Projection - 4 - 2, 34 Saves, 65 IP, 94:28 K:BB, 3.01 ERA, 1.12 WHIP
  • Aroldis Chapman 2020 ATC Projection - 4 - 2, 35 Saves, 59 IP, 88:27 K:BB, 2.78 ERA, 1.15 WHIP
  • Aroldis Chapman 2020 ZiPS Projection - 3 -1, 51.2 IP, 83:25 K:BB, 2.61 ERA, 1.12

Chapman’s projections almost represent three potential outcomes based on innings accrued. In September of 2019, Chapman logged 4.1 innings throwing 70 pitches as New York kept him rested for the playoffs. This could happen once again. Pay for the ATC projection and hope he gets past 90 strikeouts. Aroldis Chapman remains a top-tier closer, but it’s time to account for the reduced velocity depressing his strikeout totals.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

Steamerprojections.com

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski