After months of rumors, J.T. Realmuto will head to Philadelphia via a trade with the Marlins. Coming off of a season in which Realmuto recorded career highs in home runs and RBI, he receives a boost in ballpark factors and will hit in a much better lineup. Realmuto commences his tenure with the Phillies after leading all catchers in the National League in at-bats (477), runs (74), doubles (30), average (.277), slugging percentage (.484), extra-base hits (54) and tied for first in RBI (74). He also ranked second in home runs (21) and on-base percentage (.340).

With the premise Miami represents a bottom five ballpark in term of ballpark factors, Citizens Bank Park sits among the top five venues to hit in. In an effort to see what effect shifting cities could impart on Realmuto, here’s his home and road splits from last year along with his career numbers:

In home games, Realmuto put up pedestrian numbers as a Marlin. Yes, the ballpark worked against him but look at the disparity in isolated power last season and in the slugging percentage. Realmuto may never be a full on power hitter, but he’s capable of growth in home runs with the Phillies. In fact, his career slash line on the road should excite owners of Realmuto heading into this season. He’s provided more power on the road with a lower hard hit rate in both samples as well.

Over the last three years, Realmuto’s appeared in 404 games with 202 runs, 49 home runs, 187 RBI, 23 stolen bases and a .286/.339/.454 slash line. Within this time frame, Realmuto owns a .168 isolated power with a 33.9 fly ball percentage, 44.2 pull percent and 33.7 hard hit rate. He’s made contact over 81 percent of the time with a swinging strike percentage of nine percent.

Using his expected statistics (xSTATS), Realmuto’s not only capable of growth in power, but his .292 expected average the last three years suggests this could improve as well. Factoring this in with his road splits, things continue to look rosy for Realmuto in Philadelphia. Courtesy of Baseball Savant, here’s all of Realmuto’s line drives and fly balls the last three years with Citizens Bank Park as the overlay:

Not only will Realmuto’s increased propensity to pull the ball benefit his power but he could also see an uptick in production when hitting the ball to right-center and the opposite field. Additionally, Realmuto arrives in Philadelphia fresh off his best launch angle generated from the last three seasons along with growth in his hard hit rate:

In just two years, Realmuto’s doubled his total barrels in fewer batted ball events, improved his launch angle by almost five degrees and his hard-hit percentage by nearly five points. All of these factors baked in with his new park point to an improved 2019 for Realmuto.

His projection sets do not account for his improved hitting environment, but provide a glimpse of Realmuto’s baseline for the year ahead:

When setting expectations for Realmuto in 2019, some of his counting statistics will depend on where he hits in the lineup. Due to the chance another free agent will be added, it’s too early to speculate. However, just his new surroundings along with a much better team will boost his counting statistics compared to last year.

Realmuto could hit more than 21 home runs (23-to-25 seems likely) with a chance at 80 runs and 80 RBI. If his road splits translate to Philadelphia, he could also hit in the .285-to-.295 range, which only enhances his overall profile.

J.T. Realmuto could build on his career year in home runs and RBI while rebounding in batting average due to his trade to the Phillies. It felt like Realmuto’s price in early drafts seemed to steep, suddenly, it’s adjusted to being just right. Suffice it to say, Realmuto’s stock rises as a result of this move. Invest with confidence.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com, BaseballSavant.com, xSTATS.org, THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty, ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen, Steamerprojections.com