Chris Paddack and MacKenzie Gore get a lot of attention when discussing the Padres rotation, but Dinelson Lamet is a popular upside play this year, given his ability to rack up strike outs in bunches. He punched out 105 batters last year in just 73 innings pitched, good for a 12.95 K/9 and a whopping 33.6 percent strikeout rate. He did fall victim to a .311 BABIP, however, his xBA (.217) wasn’t far off from his actual batting average against (.223). Lamet is a trendy pick, given his strikeout prowess, but other than that, he hasn’t been anything spectacular. He has an ERA for his career at 4.37, a 10.5 percent walk rate and opponents are slugging .409 against him.

To help put some of the numbers into perspective, let’s see who compares well to Lamet, or offensive players that put up similar numbers to help paint the picture. Additionally, Lamet would have ranked poorly in some categories if he pitched enough innings to qualify.

His 9.6 percent walk rate was an improvement from 2017, but it would have ranked in the bottom-10 of starters last year.

His 1.48 HR/9 is a problem and would have been the 12th-highest marks amongst starters last year.

Opponents slugged.409 against him last season, which only would have been a hair better than Noah Syndergaard .

Opponents posted a barrel rate of 8.1 percent against Lamet last year, which would have been 17th-highest.

Opponents had an average launch angle of 14.9 degrees, which would have been the 17th-highest mark amongst starters last year.

Yes, Lamet is a big time strike out arm, and that’s his biggest claim to fantasy fame. However, while his pitch arsenal looks pretty at first, it’s set up to dominate right-handers, and that’s something he’s done in the early parts of his young career. The problem lies in the fact that he doesn’t have an above-average pitch that runs away from left-handed hitters. The two pitches he boasts that have movement that runs from left-handers, are two of his pitches that he doesn’t command well. Look at his pitch map from last year, courtesy of Baseball Savant.

His curve and slider will wreak havoc on righties, as they have done. His slider is fine against lefties, but what’s something he has moving away from lefties? His sinker tends to end in the middle of the zone, and his changeup is all over the darn place! This explains why lefties have hit .254 off Lamet in his career, compared to righties hitting a measly .175.

Furthermore, despite having five pitches at his disposal, his two pitch arsenal leads him to have problems getting deeper into games. Take a look at some of his numbers here as he gets deeper into the game.

 

IP

ERA

HR/9

K%

AVG

1st time through order

75.0

4.08

1.44

34.0%

.193

2nd time through order

75.1

3.35

0.84

31.5%

.200

3rd time through order

36.2

7.12

2.70

22.8%

.288

Courtesy of Fangraphs

Interesting. With a limited arsenal, as the game goes on, his ERA is worse, home runs go up and strikeouts go way, way down. In terms of strikeout percentage, he goes from being Max Scherzer the first time through the order, to Robbie Ray the second time, and then the third time through the order, his 22.8 percent strikeout rate compares to Hyun-Jin Ryu . That’s a considerable drop, and the production falters as well, so are we potentially drafting a top-35 starter who is likely yanked after five or so innings? If he doesn’t harness his command, he’s going to struggle to get deeper into games, and he’s not going to strikeout 12 guys in 4.1 innings every time he pitches. That is for sure.

Lamet is a Statcast darling, seeing as he has elite strikeout potential, good velocity and spin rates, and the ability to put up excellent marks in the expected statistics. He has a great home park, and a solid bullpen that should hold leads for him. However, can this also come back to bite him where the sun doesn’t shine? Potentially. The Padres acquired Emilio Pagán , who is a talented reliever, potentially to help shorten some games. With a guy like Lamet, it makes sense. Let him carve through the lineup the first two times through, and then when a string of lefties comes up that third time through, get him out of there, because that’s when the train steamrolls off the track.

I’m not arguing that Lamet isn’t a serviceable SP3, because he certainly is, but total innings this year is a question mark and past the strikeouts, what are you getting with Lamet? I understand the appeal with the elite strikeout potential, but this is a situation where, personally, I’m fine missing out on his services due to the concerns presented above.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball