Nick Pivetta’s big strikeout day highlights this week’s Week That Was.
Nick Pivetta : Nick Pivetta twirled 5 and 2/3 shutout innings this week, striking out 9 and walking none. Yes, it was the Marlins but those strikeouts count in your fantasy stats just as much as if they were the Astros. Pivetta is likely on your waiver wire. He should not be. Yes, he had a hideously ugly 6.02 ERA last year (the reason he is likely on your wire). However, smart owners who dig deeper will see a pitcher who was incredibly unlucky with a .336 BABIP and a 63% strand rate. They will also see an xFIP that is almost two full runs less than his ERA at 4.26. Bottom line – this is an underrated young pitcher who averages close to 95 mph and who has induced 13.5% swinging strikes in the early going. We invested in NL LABR and will continue to grab up shares off the waiver wire. I suggest you do the same.
Grégory Polanco : Polanco had himself a day Sunday going 2-4 with a run, two RBI and a dinger (his third of the year). Thus far on the young season, Polanco is hitting a robust .310 with a gaudy .447 OBP. Am I surprised? No. Was it the stories of Polanco being in the best shape of his life that made me bullish on him in 2018? No (but it did not hurt). The real reason I was high on him is that he is the classic “jump to the next level” guy the Rules of Engagement say to target. Coming into this year, Polanco was still only 26 years old and had already had over 1800 plate appearances in the major leagues. Smart owners see a potential jump in performance, while the less informed think the plateau is real. If there is a doubter in your league thinking she/he is selling high, buy with confidence.
José Ramírez : José Ramírez went hitless again Sunday dropping his batting average to a paltry .061. Am I panicking? No. Ramirez has been a remarkably consistent player over the last two years hitting .312 and .318 respectively while swiping 39 combined bases and blasting 40 combined dingers. Do I have some concern? Yes. He is not hitting the ball hard and is not hitting line drives. That said, I will gladly take a multi-position, good average, power-speed combination guy with a strong track record who is just 25 years old. If there is a panic seller in your league, well good for you. You know what to do.
Carlos Santana : The 1B nicknamed “sweet music” is having a rough early go in his new digs in Philly. After another collar Sunday, Santana is well below the Mendoza line at .172. To make matters worse, his usually reliable OBP sits at a weak .250. Do I like Santana as a player? Yes. Is his bad start a surprise? No. The Rules of Engagement make clear that it is very common for players in new homes fresh off of a big free agent contract to struggle out of the gate. After all, they are human beings who had to move to a new city, move their families, get used to new colleagues and who often press to impress those new teammates and coaches. Somewhere between April 20 and May 1, Santana will heat up. As soon as you see the first sign, buy low so that you get the good stats and his present owner gets Mendoza (or worse, Mendoza lite).
Max Stassi : When I celebrated grabbing Stassi for $1 at the Tout Wars AL auction (literally standing up in the middle of the Staten Island Yankee dugout in a hands raised celebration), our competitors looked at me I as if I had three heads. Well the odd looks aside, Stassi has been paying some nice early season dividends. Sunday Stassi hit a three-run bomb to lead his team to victory. On the young season, Stassi is hitting a cool .400 with a sparkling 1,200+ OPS. Will he continue to hit like Mike Trout ? No. Are there reasons to think he will get consistent AB in Houston? Yes. First, the Astros know Brian McCann is slowing down and Evan Gattis is just not good behind the plate. Second, Stassi had some interesting signs in his advanced metrics from 2017 (33% hard hit rate and a 50+% flyball rate – the combination of which says sneaky power for little money). Third, Houston is a very good offensive team and the T in SMART does stand for Team (hitters on good teams get more run and rbi chances and more pitches to hit). So, those of you in two catcher AL only leagues, Stassi is a guy to consider carefully.
And now, the moment you have been waiting for -- Schultz says: “Schultz has often said that the first couple weeks of the season are a lousy barometer for what to expect for the rest of the year. It’s simply not good practice to overreact to an abysmally low batting average or a staggeringly high ERA in early April. As a practical matter, the weather’s cold, routines aren’t quite yet routines and a couple bad outings are magnified by the fact that they aren’t buried amongst other statistics.
This year, more than ever, this morsel of wisdom is worth remembering. To try and avoid a World Series cancelled by snow, MLB started the 2018 season in March, the earliest it ever started playing baseball that counts in the United States. With Spring Training cut short and the northern weather remaining stubbornly frigid, it’s shouldn’t be surprising that some players aren’t coming out of the gate in mid-season form.
Worried about José Ramírez hitting .067? Worried about Marcus Stroman ’s nearly run-an-inning ERA? Worried about Mike Trout ’s .184 2 HR 1 SB line after you paid soooooo dearly for him? Just be patient. It’s early.”
Response: I should have known that if I featured an Indian above, Schultz would also submit a blurb about that same player. Well, we are both right about José Ramírez . He will be fine.