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When looking to improve your daily fantasy sports game, solid assessment is just as important as the lineup building process and research. It is easy to use the terms blasted off, or stinks, to describe how a lineup performed, but the key is understanding why. My goal when building a lineup is to have a valid explanation on how it was constructed, and how it will win. I continue to urge everyone that if unsure about why you see or not see a player recommended, that you ask why. After the slate is completed, it is always best to go back and re-assess how it performed. This strategy works for not just your lineups, but others as well. Below is a look at the NFL week four paylines for some top contests.
FanDuel:
NFL Sunday Big Double Up: $5 entry fee, top 11,000 win
The winning lineup scored 193.92 points, with the pay line at 127.68.
The FantasyAlarm Optimal Lineup scored 135.36 points.
News and Notes: Ezekiel Elliott was the on the winning and cashline lineup, as well as on 74.9% of all lineups in this double up. The winning lineup had five of their nine players at under 4.5% ownership. The cash line score had five players at 22% or higher. This week, the #2 RB option was spread out after Zeke. Dalvin Cook made it on 18.7%, and Todd Gurley II was owned on 14.6% of lineups. Last week’s highest owned player, Le'Veon Bell, was owned on only 6.3% of lineups. At the WR spot, Larry Fitzgerald hit 63.2% of lineups, but A.J. Green narrowly beat him out for the top spot at 67.7%.
Many saved some salary at WR by going with A.J. Green, whose 22.1 points were on 82% of all lineups. For the second straight week, we also saw a highly owned defense not fare that well, but could chalk that up to garbage time. The Bengals DEF was owned on 57.9% of lineups. The biggest disappointment may have been Julio Jones. Jones made it on 21.1% of lineups, and 4.5 FD points. On the flip side, Greg Zuerlein fired up 27 FD points, and was owned on just 0.5% of lineups. Bilal Powell also produced 27 FD points, and was on less lineups at 0.4%.
Although this contest paid out the top 11,000 entries, due to the number of entries tied for the last winning spot, they received $5.39 instead of the $10 payout.
$2 Million dollar NFL Sunday Million: 336,134 entries
The winning lineup scored 202.22 points, with the pay line at 128.12.
The FantasyAlarm Optimal Lineup scored 131.48 points..jpg)
News and Notes: We did not see a Brady and Gronk combo win this gpp for the third straight week, but instead, this week rewarded those who went with the rookie Deshaun Watson. In fact, 18 of the top 19 lineups had a Deshaun Watson-DeAndre Hopkins combo (One had Andy Dalton at QB). Watson hit on 6.3% of lineups, with Hopkins checking in at 16.2% owned. Ezekiel Elliott dropped down to 26.2% owned in this large gpp, and had plenty of company in the twenty percent owned range. Dalvin Cook, Todd Gurley, and Leonard Fournette all were between 19.6-20.3% owned.
The winning lineup lowest scoring player was also his highest owned. Larry Fitzgerald was on 22% of lineups, with A.J. Green checking in at 34%. Their Bell and Gurley RB combo, paired with his Watson to Hopkins hit was key. Yes, they did have Zuerlein, so feel free to continue the kicker debate, but the difference between first and second was only 0.10 points.
A smaller GPP contest, the $100,000 NFL Spike, was a single entry, $5 buy in contest with 23,529 entries. The top score was 190.32 points, with the cash line at 127.58.
DraftKings:
NFL Sunday Massive Double Up: $5 entry fee. 22,988 entries, top 10,000 win.
https://www.draftkings.com/contest/gamecenter/45721468?uc=848750137
The winning lineup scored 225.12 points, with the pay line at 143.52
The FantasyAlarm Optimal Lineup scored 145.68 points with the first pivot lineup.
News and Notes: First, this contest had 14.95% rake. Just wanted to point that out, as you should look at what the rake is before entering contests. Some are as low at 9 or less, but some has been as high as close to 16%. Somewhere between 10-12% should be ideal when looking at what contests to enter.
It’s very interesting if you are someone that plays on multiple sites, as even though the results could be similar, ownership levels could be vastly different. Similar to FD, Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins were all over the winning lineups, but were on much more of them. Watson was on 23.3%, while Hopkins made it on 53%. Although Watson was popular, Howard had it right with Trevor Semien, who checked in as the highest owned QB at 27.62%.
Ezekiel Elliott edged out Dalvin Cook in the larger double up, but Cook was your highest owned running back in this large double up, barely beating out Elliott at 58 and 57.8 percent ownership. Another young running back showed up plenty as well, with Leonard Fournette made it on 33.9% of lineups.
Unlike FD, not as many were willing to pay up for A.J. Green, as he made it on 13.8% of lineups. There was plenty of love for Larry Fitzgerald still, as he topped off the highest at 57.1% owned. There were some solid tight end ownership levels, with Charles Clay at 17.6, and Jared Cook at 25.7% owned, but it was Evan Engram checking in as the top tight end at 32.4% owned.
Busts and Breakouts: Rishard Matthews couldn’t even pick up much in a garbage time blowout, scoring only 7.90 DK points for the 34.16% of lineups he was on. Emmanuel Sanders was below Matthews in both points (6.70), and ownership (22.83%). On the flip side, 0.44% of those that went with Howard’s punt play of Tyler Kroft were rewarded with 24.80 DK points, and although Powell blasted off on over 12% of lineups, it was Lamar Miller’s cheap price that paid off for the 3% of lineups he was on.
NFL $4.25MM Fantasy Football Millionaire Maker: 250,000 entries.
https://www.draftkings.com/contest/gamecenter/45344496
The winning lineup scored 230.74, with the pay line at 145.2.
The FantasyAlarm Optimal Lineup scored 150.66 points with the first pivot lineup..
News and Notes: First, it is worth stating that DK has removed the Sunday night contest from their main slate of games. In return, this contest produced 14.5% rake, with their million dollar primetime contest, if it filled, producing 18.9% rake. Once again, it is recommended that you take notice of the rake, as certain contests have both lower, and higher percentages than the “norm.”
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No single bullet winner again this week, but we did see eight of the top seventeen finishers entering two lineups or less in this large gpp. The Watkins and Hopkins combo made it on nine of the top ten lineups, but not the winning one. The winning user took home one million on a Cam Newton (2.7%) and Devin Funchess pairing (2.4%). The winner also used Tyler Kroft, who made it on 1.6% of lineups, as well as as RB combo of Bell, Fournette, and Powell.
While Engram was highly owned in cash games, he was behind both Cook and Clay in this contest, but all three trailed Rob Gronkowski, who checked in as the highest owned tight end, and seventh overall at 17.22%. The overall top owned honor went to, for the last time this season, Dalvin Cook. His 33.37% ownership was tops by almost eight percent. The usual names we have seen for week four, Elliott, Fitzgerald, Hopkins, and Fournette, rounded out the top five. Only three quarterbacks were over ten percent owned. Those were Watson, Tom Brady, and Trevor Semien. Eli Manning actually was the fourth highest QB.
The big surprise, and bust, was Joe Mixon. He sat in the eighth highest owned spot, and those 16.7% of lineups he was on were disappointed with his 8.8 DK points, especially with Powell and Miller at $1K or more cheaper. On the flip side, only 15 lineups had A.J. Derby, and 41 had Wayne Gallman.
Cincinnati actually had three in the top 21 top ownership plays in this contest. After Mixon, Green sat just outside the top ten at 15.3% owned, with the Bengals defense only behind the Jags for the top defense options at 12.82%.
Jobbers: Sticking with the QB’s, 20 users went with Sam Bradford, but plenty of other injured backup QB’s were taken as well, as even Kyle Sloter made a lineup. For those that made it this far reading, predict in the comment section below on how many lineups Derek Carr will be on below for a chance to win a cool prize.
I could name plenty of these, but will state that Greg Olsen made it on 52 lineups, and David Johnson on 58. Tyler Eifert was on 136, barely less than the 220 that Jonnu Smith made it on, and he scored a TD for the second straight game.
This must be users entering a dummy lineup, then forgetting about it. I could see this more in free contests, but for $20? Even if it was through winning a ticket, it’s a $20 ticket!
FantasyDraft:
FantasyDraft took their Run & Gun down from $150,000 prize pool to $125,000. They improved on their overlay as well, filling 96.1% of their spots. The rake for this contest was roughly 13%, but they do have rake free head to head contests. Their Carolina Million qualifier jumped to a $444 entry fee cost, and filled only 80% of it. The week five qualifier jumps once again, this time up to $777. The Run & Gun stays at $125,000.