Gambit (World rank: #1) vs. Complexity (World rank: #14) 

Moneyline Odds: Gambit (-325) | Complexity (+255) 

Map Handicap: Gambit -1.5 (+105) | Complexity +1.5 (-130)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+130) | Under 2.5 (-160)

  • This is a best-of-three series for the upper bracket semi-finals of the BLAST Premier Spring Final 2021.
  • Gambit - Rating at event: sh1ro 1.41 | Ax1Le 1.36 | Hobbit 1.26 | interz 1.06 | nafany 0.91
  • Gambit - Rating past three months: sh1ro 1.27 | Ax1Le 1.23 | Hobbit 1.23 | nafany 1.08 | interz 0.99 
  • Complexity - Rating at event: k0nfig 1.66 | blameF 1.49 | jks 1.18 | poizon 1.17 | RUSH 1.05 
  • Complexity - Rating past three months: blameF 1.16 | k0nfig 1.14 | jks 1.06 | poizon 1.00 | RUSH 0.91

H2H Data:

  • These rosters just faced each other two weeks ago at IEM Summer 2021 and Gambit won 2-1 (16-7 Mirage / 8-16 Overpass / 16-14 Vertigo). Both teams dominated the other team’s map pick, and the decider map went the full 30 rounds. Despite Gambit winning the series, sh1ro and Ax1Le were the only members of the team to have a positive K/D ratio.  

Projected Maps:

Gambit removes Nuke

Complexity removes Inferno

Gambit picks Vertigo

Complexity picks Mirage

Gambit removes Ancient

Complexity removes Dust2

Overpass is left over.

  • The map pool will continue to be difficult to predict with Ancient now in the mix. Both teams looked really good on that map for the one official match that they have played so far, so neither should prioritize banning it. Gambit permaban Nuke, while Complexity have some options now that Train is out of the map pool, and they now feel comfortable on Ancient. I think they will ban Inferno or maybe Vertigo, and whichever is left will be the pick of Gambit. Inferno probably makes more sense as a ban since Complexity kept it close last time on that map, and Inferno is a really weak map for them. Complexity should stick to picking their favorite map, Mirage, although Ancient could be a possibility. Overpass would make sense as the decider here. 

Gambit - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (13 maps): 12-1 W/L record, 61.5% pistol round win percent, 82.4% round win percent after getting first kill, 38.9% round win percent after receiving first death

Gambit - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (13 maps): Hobbit +85 K/D Diff, 1.39 Rating | sh1ro +98 K/D Diff, 1.31 Rating | Ax1Le +54 K/D Diff, 1.27 Rating | interz +41 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating

Gambit - Key stats on Mirage past three months (16 maps): 13-3 W/L record, 53.1% pistol round win percent, 78.3% round win percent after getting first kill, 33.5% round win percent after receiving first death

Gambit - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (16 maps): sh1ro +129 K/D Diff, 1.32 Rating | Ax1Le +68 K/D Diff, 1.26 Rating | Hobbit +28 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating

Complexity - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (9 maps): 5-4 W/L record, 38.9% pistol round win percent, 75.2% round win percent after getting first kill, 27.0% round win percent after receiving first death

Complexity - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (9 maps): k0nfig +29 K/D Diff, 1.27 Rating | jks +8 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | blameF +7 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating 

Complexity - Key stats on Mirage past three months (18 maps): 11-7 W/L record, 61.1% pistol round win percent, 72.9% round win percent after getting first kill, 32.5% round win percent after receiving first death

Complexity - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (18 maps): blameF +87 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | k0nfig +62 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | jks +13 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating 

Analysis:

Hobbit is the best play on the slate in my opinion. He is priced down to $8,000 on Draftkings, which is likely due to some poor performances from him during IEM Summer. However, Hobbit was playing from home for that tournament and was known to have ping issues at times, and he is now playing on site with the team. There is so much upside with this pricing that I recommend hammering Hobbit in DFS. As for this series, I have to take Gambit here. Complexity had a respectable showing against Gambit last time, beating them 16-8 on Overpass and almost winning Vertigo 14-16. It is possible that Complexity consider picking Ancient instead of Mirage to switch things up to try to beat the best team in the world, but I favor Gambit on any map that gets played, even Ancient. Ax1Le did not seem to be negatively affected by playing from home, but Hobbit clearly was not playing at his best while he was playing from home, and Gambit should be even stronger this time. They are on a six match winning streak now and have won nine maps in a row. I think is sets up to be a 2-0 sweep for Gambit and I would recommend stacking them for DFS. My favorite plays on Draftkings in order are Hobbit, sh1ro, Ax1LE, nafany, then interz. If you wanted to take some shots on Complexity, then k0nfig could be a good option since his aim is looking on point in this tournament, and blameF is usually solid even in losses. 

BIG (World rank: #9) vs. Natus Vincere (World rank: #2) 

Moneyline Odds: BIG (+175) | NAVI (-220) 

Map Handicap: BIG +1.5 (-165) | NAVI -1.5 (+135)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+125) | Under 2.5 (-155)

  • This is a best-of-three series for the upper bracket semi-finals of the BLAST Premier Spring Final 2021.
  • BIG - Rating at event: syrsoN 1.24 | XANTARES 1.17 | tabseN 1.07 | k1to 0.93 | tiziaN 0.79
  • BIG - Rating past three months: XANTARES 1.14 |syrsoN 1.13 | tabseN 1.06 | k1to 0.99 | tiziaN 0.95 
  • NAVI - Rating at event: s1mple 1.17 | electronic 1.09 | Perfecto 1.01 | B1T 0.89 | Boombl4 0.80
  • NAVI - Rating past three months: s1mple 1.33 | electronic 1.09 | B1T 1.03 | Perfecto 0.98 | Boombl4 0.96

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other. 

Projected Maps:

BIG removes Inferno

NAVI removes Vertigo

BIG picks Dust2

NAVI picks Nuke

BIG removes Overpass

NAVI removes Ancient

Mirage is left over.

  • The map pool will continue to be difficult to predict with Ancient now in the mix. BIG should remove Inferno and NAVI should remove Vertigo. BIG’s most played map is Dust2, and they will likely pick it here, though NAVI have been excellent on that map. NAVI may go for Nuke, especially since it has been a weak map for BIG. Mirage makes sense as the decider since BIG should remove Overpass and NAVI probably do not want to play Ancient again after losing to FaZe on Wednesday.

BIG - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (24 maps): 19-5 W/L record, 64.6% pistol round win percent, 75.7% round win percent after getting first kill, 38.1% round win percent after receiving first death

BIG - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (24 maps): XANTARES +130 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | syrsoN +112 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | tabseN +46 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating | k1to +9 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating

BIG - Key stats on Nuke past three months (13 maps): 5-8 W/L record, 38.5% pistol round win percent, 67.8% round win percent after getting first kill, 23.1% round win percent after receiving first death

BIG - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (13 maps): tabseN +12 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | syrsoN +11 K/D Diff, 1.03 Rating 

NAVI - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (10 maps): 8-2 W/L record, 45.0% pistol round win percent, 75.7% round win percent after getting first kill, 31.0% round win percent after receiving first death

NAVI - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (10 maps): s1mple +57 K/D Diff, 1.28 Rating | electronic +17 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | B1T +24 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating | Perfecto +12 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating

NAVI - Key stats on Nuke past three months (3 maps): 2-1 W/L record, 66.7% pistol round win percent, 73.7% round win percent after getting first kill, 33.3% round win percent after receiving first death

NAVI - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (3 maps): s1mple +29 K/D Diff, 1.54 Rating | electronic +4 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating

*Note, these stats for NAVI only include results with B1T in the lineup.

Analysis:

BIG are coming off of a solid win against G2, and NAVI barely scraped by FaZe on Wednesday, but I still think this should be a 2-0 sweep for NAVI. BIG is one of the best Dust2 teams in the world, but it would take a lot for them to beat NAVI on that map. The only other map that BIG have a strong record on in the past three months is Vertigo, which should be instantly banned by NAVI. I favor NAVI on any map that gets played and I would highly recommend stacking them for DFS. S1mple is one of the best plays on the slate and I think playing him in 100% of your lineups is a reasonable thing to do because he is consistent enough. If you have the salary to put him at captain, then just do it. My favorite plays from NAVI on Draftkings in order are s1mple, Perfecto, electronic, B1T, then Boombl4. I am not going to have exposure to BIG but syrsoN, XANTARES and tabseN all look like possible value options if you want to go that direction.   

**Favorite Stacks: Gambit, NAVI

**Favorite CPT plays: Hobbit, s1mple, sh1ro, Ax1Le, electronic

**Favorite value plays: nafany, Perfecto, B1T, Boombl4