*First thing to note for this slate is that all four series are best-of-one, as opposed to the more common best-of-three format for CS:GO. This means that there is no Match Sweep Bonus on Draftkings, so riskier lineups may have more upside on this slate. You generally will want players from winning teams per usual, but a player could pop off in a loss and still very well be the highest scorer in the series.
*Second thing to note is that Ancient is in the map pool for this tournament. We have never seen any of these teams play an official match on Ancient yet, but that could change at IEM Summer 2021. I still expect the map to get permabanned by most teams for now though, especially favorites banning it to prevent underdogs from finding an edge. The map pool for the series in this tournament will be extremely difficult to predict, but I will give my best
Heroic (World rank: #2) vs. Imperial (World rank: #109)
Moneyline Odds: Heroic (-725) | Imperial (+500)
Map 1 Round Handicap: Heroic -6.5 (-105) | Imperial +6.5 (-120)
This is a best-of-one match for Opening Round of the Group B Upper Bracket of IEM Summer 2021.
Heroic - Rating past three months: cadiaN 1.16 | TeSeS 1.15 | stavn 1.11 | sjuush 1.10 | refrezh 1.06
Imperial - Rating past three months: fear 1.20 | f4stzin 1.10 | SHOOWTiME 1.08 | ckzao 1.07 | zqKS 1.04
H2H Data:
These rosters have never faced each other.
Projected Map:
Heroic removes Dust2
Imperial removes Vertigo
Heroic removes Ancient
Imperial removes Nuke
Heroic removes Mirage
Imperial removes Overpass
Inferno is left over
Heroic - Key stats on Inferno past three months (10 maps): 7-3 W/L record, 35.0% pistol round win percent, 72.2% round win percent after getting first kill, 29.3% round win percent after receiving first death
Heroic - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (10 maps): TeSeS +13 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | cadiaN +18 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | refrezh +6 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating
Imperial - Key stats on Inferno past three months (1 map): 1-0 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 78.6% round win percent after getting first kill, 45.5% round win percent after receiving first death
Imperial - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (1 map): SHOOWTiME +11 K/D Diff, 1.51 Rating | fer +8 K/D Diff, 1.31 Rating | f4stzin +4 K/D Diff, 1.30 Rating
Analysis:
The odds heavily favor Heroic in this spot, and they are also about an even money bet to win this map by at least seven rounds. Anything can happen in a best-of-one, but there is no reason why Heroic should lose this, and I would only focus on Heroic for DFS. The problem is that all five members of Heroic are capable of top-fragging, and it can be difficult to pick the best ones for your lineup. I think that we see Inferno as the map tomorrow, or possibly Mirage, but I am not putting too much weight in the projected map for a best-of-one. Imperial recently played with piriaz1n in their lineup, but zqkS will be in the lineup on Thursday. Imperial have posted some decent results in the past few months, but they have not faced a team even close to the caliber of Heroic and they would be lucky to keep things close against the Danes. Refrezh is one of my favorite plays on the board due to pricing, and cadiaN would be second favorite play on Heroic, although TeSeS, stavn, and sjuush all look excellent.
Evil Geniuses (World rank: #38) vs. Spirit (World rank: #14)
Moneyline Odds: Evil Geniuses (+195) | Spirit (-245)
Map 1 Round Handicap: Evil Geniuses +3.5 (+105) | Spirit -3.5 (-130)
This is a best-of-one match for Opening Round of the Group B Upper Bracket of IEM Summer 2021.
Evil Geniuses - Rating past three months: Brehze 1.09 | oBo 1.08 | MICHU 1.01 | CeRq 0.97 | stanislaw 0.84
Spirit - Rating past three months: degster 1.20 | mir 1.19 | sdy 1.11 | magixx 1.07 | chopper 1.04
H2H Data:
These rosters have never faced each other.
Projected Map:
EG removes Dust2
Spirit removes Vertigo
EG removes Nuke
Spirit removes Ancient
EG removes Mirage
Spirit removes Inferno
Overpass is left over
Evil Geniuses - Key stats on Overpass with MICHU (1 map): 0-1 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 71.4% round win percent after getting first kill, 23.8% round win percent after receiving first death
Evil Geniuses - Notable performers on Overpass with MICHU (1 map): MICHU +10 K/D Diff, 1.26 Rating | CeRq +7 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating
Spirit - Key stats on Overpass past three months (6 maps): 5-1 W/L record, 58.3% pistol round win percent, 77.8% round win percent after getting first kill, 35.7% round win percent after receiving first death
Spirit - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (6 maps): degster +51 K/D Diff, 1.40 Rating | mir +13 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | sdy +18 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating
Analysis:
The news on Tuesday was EG’s coach, zews, stepped down and will no longer be with the team. This leaves some fans wondering if there are more changes to come, specifically to replace the struggling IGL, stanislaw. Against Spirit, Evil Geniuses should definitely be an underdog, but with zews gone I think we could see a narrative play out where EG wants to prove themselves in this tournament, especially stanislaw. It is completely speculative, but I do think it is at least worth considering that we might see a fired up Evil Geniuses squad on Thursday. I think we could see Overpass since EG picked it in their last series and showed flashes of brilliance in an overtime loss to FURIA, meanwhile Spirit like the map as well with a 5-1 record in the past three months. Spirit should be favorites on whatever map does get played, but EG have a chance since this is only a best-of-one and there is a possible narrative forming here. Degster looks like the best play here, and mir is reasonably priced as well, but I am simply not willing to put all of my eggs into Spirit’s basket.
Ninjas in Pyjamas (World rank: #10) vs. OG (World rank: #20)
Moneyline Odds: Ninjas in Pyjamas (-125) | OG (Even)
Map 1 Round Handicap: NiP -2.5 (+120) | OG +2.5 (-145)
This is a best-of-one match for Opening Round of the Group B Upper Bracket of IEM Summer 2021.
NiP - Rating past three months: dev1ce 1.15 | REZ 1.14 | LNZ 1.04 | hampus 1.02 | Plopski 1.02
OG - Rating past three months: mantuu 1.16 | valde 1.15 | flameZ 1.10 | Aleksib 1.05 | niko 1.01
H2H Data:
These rosters have never faced each other. Both rosters have made multiple changes since last playing each other in October 2020.
Projected Map:
NiP removes Ancient
OG removes Vertigo
NiP removes Nuke
OG removes Overpass
NiP removes Inferno
OG removed Mirage
Dust2 is left over
NiP - Key stats on Dust2 with dev1ce (3 maps): 2-1 W/L record, 33.3% pistol round win percent, 73.0% round win percent after getting first kill, 31.9% round win percent after receiving first death
NiP - Notable performers on Dust2 with dev1ce (3 maps): dev1ce +7 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating
OG - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (5 maps): 4-1 W/L record, 60.0% pistol round win percent, 69.4% round win percent after getting first kill, 39.3% round win percent after receiving first death
OG - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (5 maps): Aleksib +27 K/D Diff, 1.32 Rating | mantuu +25 K/D Diff, 1.25 Rating | valde +20 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating
Analysis:
LNZ will play with NiP for this event, while ztr has been sent down to Young Ninjas. Ztr had been struggling for NiP with a 0.86 Rating in the past three months, so it is not too surprising to see things get switched up here. LNZ has had a 1.04 Rating with Young Ninjas in the past three months and will look to capitalize on this new opportunity. If you look back to ztr’s first series with NiP, you may be surprised to find out it was actually his strongest series and was the only time he had a Rating greater than 1.0 on every map of a series with NiP. Thus, I do not necessarily think LNZ is doomed to fail in his first series with the team. Still, this will be a difficult series for NiP against OG, especially since OG is in bootcamp right now. OG has looked significantly better at bootcamp and just won the Grand Final of Spring Sweet Spring 2 on Wednesday. I think that OG should be the favorites in this match-up and I favor them heavily for DFS, though I could not blame you for wanting to maybe play dev1ce. My favorite play is mantuu here, and I like Aleksib a lot as a cheap play.
Fnatic (World rank: #29) vs. Virtus.pro (World rank: #9)
Moneyline Odds: Fnatic (+200) | VP (-245)
Map 1 Round Handicap: Fnatic +3.5 (Even) | VP -3.5 (-125)
This is a best-of-one match for Opening Round of the Group B Upper Bracket of IEM Summer 2021.
Fnatic - Rating past three months: Brollan 1.09 | Jackinho 1.04 | KRIMZ 0.96 | JW 0.85 | Golden 0.74
VP - Rating past three months: Jame 1.18 | YEKINDAR 1.12 | buster 1.03 | Qikert 1.00 | SANJI 0.91
H2H Data:
These rosters faced each other on March 28th, 2021, as part of ESL Pro League Season 13. VP took the series 2-0 (16-9 Train / 16-8 Dust2) and YEKINDAR was the top performer with 48 kills, 30 deaths, 110.0 ADR, and a 1.63 Rating across two maps.
Projected Map:
Fnatic removes Dust2
VP removes Ancient
Fnatic removes Mirage
VP removes Nuke
Fnatic removes Overpass
VP removes Vertigo
Inferno is left over
Fnatic - Key stats on Inferno past three months (7 maps): 3-4 W/L record, 35.7% pistol round win percent, 69.5% round win percent after getting first kill, 26.6% round win percent after receiving first death
Fnatic - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (7 maps): Brollan +7 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | KRIMZ 0 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating
VP - Key stats on Inferno past three months (12 maps): 7-5 W/L record, 62.5% pistol round win percent, 74.7% round win percent after getting first kill, 25.9% round win percent after receiving first death
VP - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (12 maps): Jame +63 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | YEKINDAR -6 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating | SANJI +16 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating | buster +8 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating
Analysis:
Fnatic have lost four series in a row and have lost 20 of their 28 maps played in the last three months. Virtus.pro have faced some difficult CIS opponents in recent months, but still have a winning record with 28 wins in 55 maps played in the last three months. VP does not look as strong as they did earlier in the year, but Fnatic look as bad as they possibly could right now. Fnatic have some good pieces, but they are not a complete team right now and VP should win on any map that gets played. Train was one of the only maps that Fnatic seemed to like, and now it is out of the competitive map pool, as if things were not already looking grim for them. Brollan, jackinho and KRIMZ always have potential for a big day, but I do not think you have to go there on this slate. I am sticking with VP because I think they should dominate Fnatic, and Jame looks like an excellent play. YEKINDAR also seems to be a bit underpriced, and his aggressive playstyle gives him one of the highest ceilings on the slate.
**Favorite Stacks: Heroic, Virtus.Pro, OG
**Favorite CPT plays: cadiaN, Jame, YEKINDAR, mantuu, Degster, mir
**Favorite value plays: refrezh, Aleksib, flameZ, niko, Brehze, buster