Vitality (World rank: #11) vs. OG (World rank: #16)
Moneyline Odds: Vitality (+140) | OG (-170)
Map Handicap: Vitality +1.5 (-205) | OG -1.5 (+165)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+115) | Under 2.5 (-140)
This is a best-of-three series for Lower Round 1 of the Flashpoint 3 Lower Bracket
Vitality - Rating at event: ZyWOo 1.08 | apEX 0.83 | shox 0.78 | Kyojin 0.57 | misutaaa 0.54
Vitality - Rating past 3 months: ZyWOo 1.26 | apEX 0.96 | shox 0.99 | Kyojin 0.83 | misutaaa 0.92
OG - Rating at event: flameZ 1.33 | niko 1.11 | Aleksib 0.92 | mantuu 0.86 | valde 0.70
OG - Rating past 3 months: flameZ 1.14 | niko 1.05 | Aleksib 1.02 | mantuu 1.13 | valde 1.12
H2H Data:
These rosters have never faced each other. Vitality did beat OG 2-0 back in February at IEM Katowice 2021, but we have seen significant roster changes since then. Vitality still had Nivera and RpK on their roster, while OG still had ISSAA and NBK, so we will now get to see how things look with Kyojin, flameZ, and niko on the server.
Projected Maps:
OG removes Vertigo
Vitality removes Train
OG picks Inferno
Vitality picks Nuke
OG removes Overpass
Vitality removes Mirage
Dust2 is left over
OG should ban Vertigo and Vitality should ban train. From there, I think OG will pick their most played map with this lineup, which is Inferno. Vitality does not seem to have a comfort map pick at the moment, so I am predicting that they maybe pick Nuke. 5 of the 10 maps that they have played with Kyojin have been on Nuke, so they have must be working on this map. We did see misutaaa and Kyojin get destroyed on the A site against DBL PONEY, so it is possible Vitality stay away from Nuke. Dust2 would then be the most likely decider map in my opinion.
Vitality - Key stats on Inferno with Kyojin (1 map): 0-1 W/L record, 0.0% pistol round win percent, 80.0% round win percent after getting first kill
Vitality - Best performers on Inferno with Kyojin (1 map): misutaaa -3 K/D Diff, 0.89 Rating
Vitality - Key stats on Nuke with Kyojin (5 maps): 2-3 W/L record, 60.0% pistol round win percent, 77.4% round win percent after getting first kill
Vitality - Best performers on Nuke with Kyojin (5 maps): ZywOo +47 K/D Diff, 1.46 Rating | apEX +1 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating | shox +8 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating
OG - Key stats on Inferno with flameZ (5 maps): 3-2 W/L record, 20.0% pistol round win percent, 77.0% round win percent after getting first kill
OG - Best performers on Inferno with flameZ (5 maps): flamez +7 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | valde +12 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | Aleksib +2 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | mantuu +15 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating
OG - Key stats on Nuke with flameZ (4 maps): 2-2 W/L record, 37.5% pistol round win percent, 74.6% round win percent after getting first kill
OG - Best performers on Nuke with flameZ (4 maps): flameZ +40 K/D Diff, 1.35 Rating | mantuu +26 K/D Diff, 1.24 Rating | valde +10 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating
Analysis:
OG moneyline looks good to me at (-170) odds. Earlier this week, OG got swept 2-0 by Astralis, which was the first time they have been swept with this current lineup and was only their 2nd series lost in 6 series played. This was also the first time we have seen this team playing from home rather than bootcamp, which is something to note, but not something I am too concerned about. The sweep was facilitated by an overtime loss on their map pick of Inferno, despite flameZ and niko combining for 73 kills across 41 rounds. Valde, who has always been a consistent star for OG, finished with only 15 kills that map, and he has had other lackluster performances lately. Overall though, this OG lineup has still looked dangerous and flameZ’s stats have been off the charts, so the loss to Astralis did not change my opinion of this team. Vitality’s stats look really bad right now and they are on a 4 map losing streak. Kyojin is still yet to have much of an impact, and this team seems like it has several things they need to fix. Vitality does not have a strong map pool right now, and I am confident that OG can at least win the series. With Valde being priced down on Draftkings, I do think that he makes for a solid DFS play because we have seen what he can do in the past, so the potential ceiling is there. I never want to completely fade ZyWOo because he can put up a great performance even in a loss.
Complexity (World rank: #10) vs. Fnatic (World rank: #25)
Moneyline Odds: Complexity (-290) | Fnatic (+230)
Map Handicap: Complexity -1.5 (+115) | Fnatic +1.5 (-140)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+130) | Under 2.5 (-160)
This is a best-of-three series for Lower Round 1 of the Flashpoint 3 Lower Bracket
Complexity - Rating at event: poizon 0.98 | RUSH 0.91 | k0nfig 0.91 | jks 0.87 | blameF 0.86
Complexity - Rating past 3 months: poizon 1.04 | RUSH 0.89 | k0nfig 1.12 | jks 1.02 | blameF 1.19
Fnatic - Rating at event: Jackinho 1.05 | KRIMZ 0.91 | Brollan 0.73 | Golden 0.63 | JW 0.41
Fnatic - Rating past 3 months: Jackinho 1.02 | KRIMZ 0.95 | Brollan 1.03 | Golden 0.75 | JW 0.85
H2H Data:
These rosters have never faced each other. When the teams faced in January at cs_summit 7, Fnatic won 2-0, but JUGi was in the lineup for Complexity while poizon was on medical leave. Prior to that, flusha was in the lineup instead of Jackinho, so we have yet to see these 10 players on the server.
Projected Maps:
Fnatic removes Nuke
Complexity removes Train
Fnatic picks Inferno
Complexity picks Mirage
Fnatic removes Dust2
Complexity removes Overpass
Vertigo is left over
Nuke should get removed by Fnatic and Train should get removed by Complexity. Since Fnatic will not be able to pick Train, I think they will go for Inferno. Complexity loves to pick Mirage so we can expect that to be their pick. Vertigo would then be the most likely decider map.
Complexity - Key stats on Inferno past 3 months (11 maps): 7-4 W/L record, 31.8% pistol round win percent, 72.5% round win percent after getting first kill
Complexity - Best performers on Inferno past 3 months (11 maps): blameF +69 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | jks +36 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | k0nfig +15 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating
Complexity - Key stats on Mirage past 3 months (32 maps) 20-12 W/L record, 56.2% pistol round win percent, 73.6% round win percent after getting first kill
Complexity - Best performers on Mirage past 3 months (32 maps): blameF +143 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | k0nfig +109 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | poizon +52 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating
Fnatic - Key stats on Inferno past 3 months (9 maps): 5-4 W/L record, 55.6% pistol round win percent, 73.6% round win percent after getting first kill
Fnatic - Best performers on Inferno past 3 months (9 maps): Brollan +14 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating | KRIMZ +9 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating
Fnatic - Key stats on Mirage past 3 months (5 maps): 3-2 W/L record, 60.0% pistol round win percent, 73.4% round win percent after getting first kill
Fnatic - Best performers on Mirage past 3 months (5 maps): Brollan +7 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | KRIMZ +5 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating
Analysis:
Both of these teams are not playing well right now. Complexity is on an 8 map losing streak and Fnatic is on a 4 map losing streak. Jackinho is the only player on either side to have a rating over 1 for the Opening Round of Flashpoint. Complexity is the better team and should be the favorite, but why are they such a heavy favorite at (-290) odds when they have looked so bad recently? I know that Fnatic has looked bad too, but it seems crazy to me to take those odds on a struggling Complexity team. I think Complexity should handle Fnatic on Mirage, but the rest of this series is more of a question mark to me than the odds make it seem. My favorite bet here is Fnatic +1.5 (-140), or even just Fnatic to win their own map pick if you can get better odds. I never thought I would be betting on this mediocre Fnatic roster, but Complexity’s recent form combined with the odds that are being offered have forced my hand here. Complexity should be the better team for DFS, but I also do not mind getting to Brollan, KRIMZ and Jackinho on Draftkings.
*Favorite Stacks: OG
*Favorite Captain Plays: flameZ, valde, mantuu, blameF, k0nfig, Brollan, ZywOo
*Favorite Value Plays: niko, Aleksib, jks, KRIMZ, Jackinho