Ninjas In Pyjamas (World rank: #13) vs. Anonymo (World rank: #44)
Moneyline Odds: NiP (-510) | Anonymo (+375)
Map Handicap: NiP -1.5 (-130) | Anonymo +1.5 (+105)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+150) | Under 2.5 (-185)
This is a best-of-three series for the Opening Round of Flashpoint 3
NiP - Rating past 3 months: device 1.20 | REZ 1.10 | Plopski 1.06 | hampus 1.04 | ztr 0.85
Anonymo - Rating past 3 months: KEi 1.13 | Snax 1.07 | Kylar 1.04 | innocent 1.02 | mynio 0.97
H2H Data:
These rosters have never faced each other. This will be the debut of NiP with device in the lineup. Anonymo has only been together since January 2021, but they have already managed to find some success against quality Tier 2 opponents.
Projected Maps:
Anonymo removes Dust2
NiP removes Vertigo
Anonymo picks Nuke
NiP picks Overpass
Anonymo removes Inferno
NiP removes Train
Mirage is left over
Dust2 and Vertigo should both get removed to start. Nuke is Anonymo’s most played map, so that makes the most sense as their pick. Overpass makes sense from NiP since they have liked that map recently and Anonymo has only won 3 of their 14 maps played on Overpass. I think Anonymo would rather play NiP on Mirage than Inferno, so Mirage is my prediction for the decider map, if necessary. Keep in mind that NiP’s stats for each map listed below are with nawwk in the lineup instead of device.
NiP - Key stats on Nuke past 3 months (6 maps): 3-3 W/L record, 75.0% pistol round win percent, 77.0% round win percent after getting first kill
NiP - Best performers on Nuke past 3 months (6 maps): hampus +19 K/D Diff, 1.24 Rating | REZ +5 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | device (2 maps with Astralis) +12 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating
NiP - Key stats on Overpass past 3 months (6 maps): 3-3 W/L record, 58.3% pistol round win percent, 75.3% round win percent after getting first kill
NiP - Best performers on Overpass past 3 months (6 maps): Plopski +17 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | device (3 maps with Astralis) +11 K/D Diff, 1,19 Rating
Anonymo - Key stats on Nuke past 3 months (26 maps): 15-11 W/L record, 63.5% pistol round win percent, 74.9% round win percent after getting first kill
Anonymo - Best performers on Nuke past 3 months (26 maps): KEi +56 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | Snax +76 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | innocent +30 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating | Kylar +27 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating
Anonymo - Key stats on Overpass past 3 months (14 maps): 3-11 W/L record, 25.0% pistol round win percent, 64,1% round win percent after getting first kill
Anonymo - Best performers on Overpass past 3 months (14 maps): Kylar +20 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating
Analysis:
Snax vs. device in 2021? Yes, please. The long-awaited debut of device on NiP is finally here and expectations are high for this roster. They are a massive favorite to win on Friday, but their Polish opponents may not be as weak as the odds suggest. Anonymo should be able to put up a good fight on Nuke, but I still do not see them winning this series against NiP even with the lack of matches played together with device. 2-0 NiP is the most likely result in my opinion, and I do not think a monster performance from device is even required. I would be careful about going too heavy on NiP -1.5 (-130) since it would not shock me to see Anonymo win a map and I think those odds are a bit steep. I am making just a small play on NiP -1.5 (-130) and then loading up on NiP for DFS. Ztr has had the lowest rating in this team and has received criticism from fans, but I think the young player has a lot of potential. His utility usage is insane, and he is even calling as the IGL for this team on Nuke & Overpass, which just so happen to be the most likely first 2 maps played. We know that he still has to work on his fragging and that he plays some tough positions, so he is not always the best option for DFS. However, I think ztr is actually a sneaky really good value play on Friday given the projected map pool and his potential upside. Hampus also appears to be way underpriced on Draftkings, and I think there is a good chance that he ends up as the highest scoring player on team, so hampus is a lock for me.
FunPlus Phoenix (World rank: #17) vs. HYENAS (ex-North) (World rank: Unranked)
Moneyline Odds: FunPlus Phoenix (-300) | HYENAS (+235)
Map Handicap: FunPlus Phoenix -1.5 (+115) | HYENAS +1.5 (-140)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+130) | Under 2.5 (-160)
This is a best-of-three series for the Opening Round of Flashpoint 3
FunPlus Phoenix - Rating past 3 months: STYKO 1.06 | Maden 1.05 | zehN 1.02 | Farlig 1.02 | emi 0.97
HYENAS - Rating past 3 months: Fessor (with BLUEJAYS) 0.99 | b0RUP (with Heroic) 0.89 | aizy N/A | Kjaerbye N/A | gade N/A
H2H Data:
These teams have never faced each other because we have never seen HYENAS play before. This team is what remains of the ex-North roster with some other familiar faces mixed in. FunPlus Phoenix have also changed around their IGL in recent months, with emi finally signing in April 2021. We have nothing relevant to look at here for H2H data.
Projected Maps:
HYENAS removes Nuke
FunPlus Phoenix removes Mirage
HYENAS picks Dust2
FunPlus Phoenix picks Inferno
HYENAS removes Overpass
FunPlus Phoenix removes Vertigo
Train is left over
Good luck figuring out the map pool for this one since we know nothing about HYENAS preferences. I think they will remove Nuke because FunPlus Phoenix are solid on that map, and FPX should remove Mirage. I think HYENAS will go for a map that is ‘scrimmy’ like Dust2 due to their lack of time spent playing together. Inferno would then make sense from FunPlus Phoenix because they play that map a lot and have had plenty of success. Really though it is tough to feel any confidence about the map choices when we have never seen one of the rosters before.
FunPlus Phoenix - Key stats on Dust2 past 3 months (2 maps) 1-1 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 73.3% round win percent after getting first kill
FunPlus Phoenix - Best performers on Dust2 past 3 months (2 maps): STYKO +13 K/D Diff, 1.27 Rating | zehN +4 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating
FunPlus Phoenix - Key stats on Inferno past 3 months (7 maps): 4-3 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 75.2% round win percent after getting first kill
FunPlus Phoenix - Best performers on Inferno past 3 months (7 maps): Maden +3 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating | zehN -2 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating | STYKO +5 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating
HYENAS - There are not any stats I feel comfortable relying on for this roster. Aizy is now the AWPer which is always a position with upside. Gade is still the IGL and is not someone I expect to be at the top of the leaderboards. B0RUP is still in a supportive role according to aizy, so I do not expect him to do much fragging either. Kjaerbye struggled recently in FaZe but perhaps he finds good form again. Fessor is a young guy with a lot of upside, but he might need some time to adjust to this level of play. Other than that, your guess is as good as mine on how these players perform.
Analysis:
Listen, I am NEVER going to underestimate 5 Danish CS players, but surely this HYENAS roster loses against FunPlus Phoenix on Friday, right? I feel like the odds are disrespectful because there should be no way that FPX loses based on what we have seen from them in 2021. With emi as their IGL, FunPlus Phoenix is undefeated in their 3 series together in 2021. They have beaten #5 ranked G2, #8 ranked BIG, and #22 ranked SKADE, so they have looked excellent with emi. FPX is a top team and if they want to prove that then they have to be able to handle a new team with a bunch of players who are perceived to be washed-up by some. There is just nothing scary about this HYENAS roster. The players that they were able to add, such as b0RUP from Heroic and Kjaerbye from FaZe, were available for a reason. It is speculative, but I think this HYENAS roster would really struggle against the upper echelon of Tier 2 CS teams. I think FPX should be a bigger favorite in this spot than even NiP is against Anonymo. I am HAMMERING FunPlus Phoenix moneyline at (-300) and I will make a play on FPX -1.5 (+115). There might be 1 map that HYENAS have been working on that they keep competitive, so I am not as heavy on the -1.5 map spread, but I do really like the odds we are getting. ZehN seems way underpriced in DFS, so he will be the focus of my stacks.
*Favorite Stacks: NiP, FPX
*Favorite Captain Plays: device, zehN, Maden, Farlig, REZ, hampus
*Favorite Value Plays: ztr, hampus, Farlig