Gambit (World rank: #1) vs. NAVI (World rank: #4)
Moneyline Odds: Gambit (-185) | NAVI (+150)
Map Handicap: Gambit -1.5 (+105) | NAVI +1.5 (-125)
Map Total: Over 3.5 (-230) | Under 3.5 (+185)
- This is a best-of-five Grand Final series for DreamHack Masters Spring 2021
- Gambit - Rating for event: sh1ro 1.31 | Hobbit 1.27 | Ax1Le 1.16 | nafany 1.11 | interz 1.03
- Gambit - Rating past 3 months: sh1ro 1.26 | Hobbit 1.22 | Ax1Le 1.20 | nafany 1.07 | interz 0.98
- NAVI - Rating for event: s1mple 1.42 | Perfecto 1.10 | electronic 1.02 | Boombl4 0.99 | B1T 0.97
- NAVI - Rating past 3 months: s1mple 1.34 | Perfecto 1.02 | electronic 1.05 | B1T 1.00 | Boombl4 0.97
H2H Data
- These rosters have faced each other 3 times this year with the most recent series taking place last weekend as a part of the Group A Upper Final for DreamHack Masters Spring 2021. B1T was in the lineup over flamie for only 5 of the maps that these teams have played in 2021, so those will be our focus. In the Group A Upper Final, NAVI won Dust2 16-8, but lost 16-7 on Overpass and 16-13 on Mirage against Gambit with B1T in their lineup. The other two maps with this lineup took place in March during ESL Pro League 13, where Gambit won 16-11 on Mirage and 16-11 on Overpass.
- Gambit Notable Performers (5 maps): sh1ro +32 K/D Diff, Hobbit +25 K/D Diff, Ax1Le +15 K/D Diff
- NAVI Notable Performers (5 maps): s1mple +4 K/D Diff
Projected Maps
NAVI removes Vertigo
Gambit removes Nuke
NAVI picks Dust2
Gambit picks Overpass
NAVI picks Inferno
Gambit picks Train
Mirage is left over
This is a best-of-five series, so we will only see 2 maps banned. NAVI will almost certainly remove Vertigo and Gambit will likely remove Nuke. The only other thing to figure out would be the order of the maps. NAVI has only found success against Gambit on Dust2, so this should be their first choice. Gambit should choose Overpass because they chose it last weekend and they won that map 16-7 against NAVI. I would bank on seeing Dust2 and Overpass to start, and then we cannot be sure from there, especially since this could be over in 3 maps.
Gambit - Key stats on Dust2 past 3 months (15 maps): 9-6 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 76.2% round win percent after getting first kill
Gambit - Best performers on Dust2 past 3 months (15 maps): sh1ro +78 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | Hobbit +36 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | Ax1Le +29 K/D Diff, 1.07 rating
Gambit - Key stats on Overpass past 3 months (16 maps): 10-6 W/L record, 62.5% pistol round win percent, 75.4% round win percent after getting first kill
Gambit - Best performers on Overpass past 3 months (16 maps): Ax1Le +49 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | Hobbit +35 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | sh1ro +51 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating
NAVI - Key stats on Dust2 past 3 months (10 maps): 8-2 W/L record, 40% pistol round win percent, 80.3% round win percent after getting first kill
NAVI - Best performers on Dust2 past 3 months (10 maps): s1mple +89 K/D Diff, 1.38 Rating | B1T (2 maps) +8 K/D Diff, 1.19 Rating | electronic +24 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating
NAVI - Key stats on Overpass past 3 months (6 maps): 2-4 W/L record, 58.3% pistol round win percent, 73.6% round win percent after getting first kill
NAVI - Best performers on Overpass past 3 months (6 maps): s1mple +33 K/D Diff, 1.29 Rating | Perfecto +8 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating
Analysis
Maybe NAVI can win Dust2. But can they win 3 maps against Gambit? I do not see it happening. Gambit’s map pool is just brutal to go against in a best-of-five, and Gambit has looked like the better team when facing NAVI. S1mple has been playing at an incredible level, but electronic has not. Perfecto is now the 2nd highest rated player for NAVI at this event, which is disappointing considering what we are used to seeing from electronic. Now, Perfecto has been in better form in recent weeks, and I do not mean to take away from that, but electronic is supposed to be the star rifler that is at the top of the leaderboards consistently. This could be a time to buy low on him in that sense, but for me it is a fade. Gambit is too solid of a team to get beaten by one player, so it will take the rest of the NAVI roster besides s1mple to step up, and that is not something we have come to expect consistently. I will be heavy on Gambit moneyline, although I do expect them to win 3-0 or 3-1 so the map handicap is tempting. I just think the price we are getting on Gambit moneyline is very fair and seems like a safe bet to me.
*Favorite Captain Plays: sh1ro, s1mple, Ax1Le, Hobbit
*Favorite Value Plays: nafany, B1T, Perfecto