MMA DFS Playbook: UFC on Fox 29 - Poirier vs. Gaethje

A solid main card with many great fights, but you’ll need to fight through a mediocre undercard to get there. 14 fights allows for many different possible lineups - a serious change up from last weeks 9 fight card! Put the women and children to bed, because the men are coming home to eat (and play DraftKings)! Enough talking…...on to the fights!

Snapshot:

The first fight of the night is a Bantamweight showdown between Luke Sanders (11-2), who is 32 and 1-2 in the UFC, and Patrick Williams (8-5) who is 36 and also 1-2 in the UFC. Sanders is the former RFA bantamweight champion and was a serious prospect at 135lbs for a while. He looked amazing in his UFC debut win over Maximo Blanco but has since then fared poorly with back-to-back stoppage losses against Iuri Alcantara and Andre Soukhamthath. Sanders is best known for his pressuring kickboxing style that is accompanied by a plus wrestling game.

Patrick Williams has been contracted by the UFC for over 4 years, but this is only his fourth appearance on inside the UFC cage. His inactivity is a big concern of mine, and you’d know that if you read my write-ups regularly. Fighters who do not stay active pose a big risk for our lineups, as they are unpredictable and who knows what they have been working on in the recent past. Unpredictability is not our friend when it comes to formulating DK lineups.

Williams has been involved in three exciting fights in the UFC, but has only won one of them, a shocking submission over Alejandro Perez, otherwise losing by knockout to Chris Beal and Tom Duquesnoy. While Williams is a dangerous fighter in the first round, he has really poor cardio and I don’t trust his chin at all. Williams is known to come out of the gates ultra aggressively, and he has the potential to KO pretty much anyone who stands in front of him. After the first two minutes have passed, then Williams’ effectiveness decreases drastically, and his awful cardio starts to become very obvious. He’s very dangerous early on in the fight, but this isn’t a secret to anyone. Sanders will know not to stand in the pocket and bang with Williams to start the fight, and I suspect that Sanders will be very cautious the first half of the first round, waiting for Williams to gas, and then pounce when the opportunity is right.

Sanders is the younger fighter and he will definitely have the better gas tank in this fight. Having said that, I believe the line is too high here, as Sanders’ defense isn’t great, but he’s smart enough to use what’s between his ears in the first round, and keep his distance. He’ll let Williams throw his strikes, draining his gas tank, and eventually opening the door for Sanders to pounce, and take home a stoppage victory in the 1st round primarily due to the poor cardio that Williams will put on display.

From a DK perspective, I think Sanders is priced too high at $9,300, especially with the risk that Williams will put on display the first half of the first round. This truly is a risky fight for Sanders, as he could get caught and dropped by Williams in the first round, and this would make all Williams owners sit pretty as he’d most likely rack up 100+ points with a measly $6,900 salary! I like Williams in a few GPP lineups, as he’s stupid cheap, will allow for a lot of flexibility in our LU’s, and has a pretty high upside! We know he won’t make it to a decision and have his hand raised, so he’d likely score pretty high in a victory here. I will not have much ownership of Sanders due to this wildcard factor that Williams presents, and he’s too expensive when you take this risk into account. Not a great GPP fight to target, but I will be taking some shots at Williams, and hoping he connects viciously and early!

PICK: Sanders, TKO, 2nd                

Cash Game: Sanders (6.5/10): I think he wins, but there is too much risk here for me to feel comfortable with me rostering him in my top Cash LU.

GPP: Williams (7.5/10): I don’t think he wins, but his style of fighting leads me to believe that if he does pull off a victory, then it will be early and high scoring. He has a high ceiling, but a pretty low floor too, and the odds of that high ceiling actually happening are slim. He’s a big risk, but a great way to differentiate yourself from the other LU’s in your GPP contests.

        Sanders (7/10): His price tag is too high for what he can potentially deliver for our lineups. I’ll be passing for the most part, but feel free to roster if you like a high priced guy that may lose.

Snapshot:

Matthew Lopez (10-2) is 31 and he’s 2-2 in the UFC. The American is coming off of a brutal KO loss to Raphael Assuncao but prior to that had knocked out Johnny Eduardo in a breakout performance. Lopez has a well-round game overall, and he’s proven to come out on top in contests where the betting odds are fairly close, similar to how this fight is currently priced at (Lopez is a slight favorite at -125). Lopez will look to take this fight to the ground, as he was a 3 time state champion wrestler in high school in Arizona. Lopez is a solid scrambler and because of this he often is willing to give up position in order to try and lock up a submission. His standup definitely needs to fine tuning, especially his defensive striking skills, which are definitely lacking. His chin concerns me a lot, as he’s been knocked out cold before in the UFC cage, and although I don’t think Perez will be the guy to put him to sleep, I do think his chin will get him in trouble in this fight, especially if he can’t get this fight to the ground. I would not look to roster Lopez much, if at all in this one.

Alejandro Perez (19-6-1) is 28 and he’s 5-1-1 in the UFC. The Mexican is undefeated in his last five fights and is coming off of a breakthrough win over Iuri Alcantara. He has a well-rounded game and seems to be improving quicker than most fighters have been at this point in his UFC career. He’s a technical striker who has some power, but his lack of volume is a little concerning when looking to roster him.

I like this matchup between two of the more underrated fighters at 135lbs. Both guys could win a decision here and I expect this to be a close one, but ultimately I will side with Perez here, especially if he can keep this fight standing. Perez could land that punch that puts Lopez down due to his weak chin, and he could then pounce and end this fight with strikes on the ground. It’s not out of the realm of possibilities, but it does have a question mark following it. If I were looking to roster one of these fighters for a GPP lineup, then I’d lean towards Perez due to Lopez’s questionable chin. I also like Perez due to the streak that he is on right now. He’s tasted victory in the cage in 5 out of his 6 fights, and that level of confidence goes a long way! Ultimately, there are better fights to target on this card, but with a gun to my head, I’d lean towards Perez as he has a much higher ceiling than Lopez!  

PICK: Perez, Decision, Split            

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: Perez (7/10): He’ll be low owned, does have proven KO power, and Lopez has a proven weak chin. Not a bad risk, but I do think it goes to a decision.

Snapshot:

Arjan Bhullar (7-0) is 31 and he’s 1-0 in the UFC. The Indian-Canadian comes from a wrestling background and used his takedown ability to secure a decision win over Luis Henrique in his UFC debut. Adam Wieczorek (9-1) is 26 and he’s 1-0 in the UFC. The Pole had a close fight with Anthony Hamilton in his UFC debut but was able to sneak away with a decision as he won the striking battle. Overall, he’s won eight-straight fights and his only career loss came to Marcin Tybura.

Bottomline, from a DFS perspective I’d shy away from this. Wieczorek has not shown that he is UFC caliber, and as soon as you even consider that you should cross them out as a possible rosterable fighter for you in all UFC games all across the interwebs. Just not a guy I want to put money behind, and the same can be said for his opponent, Arjan Bhullar. I do think this fight is a lot closer than what the line shows. Watching film on these two shows a fight that could really go either way, and when you start flipping coins in the heavyweight division and you are seeing line value like +295, then you should really slow down and start thinking about putting a unit or two on the Live Dog in this one. That will most likely be my only play on this one, but I may find a LU or two to throw in the Pole, as he may be worth a dart or two. Hey, it’s the heavyweight division. Anything can happen, right?

PICK: Wieczorek, Decision, Unanimous        

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: Wieczorek (6/10): A LIVE DOG possible dart. You shouldn’t have a lot of confidence in this one, but it’s worth a play in one of your many GPP’s. I’d avoid if you’re only playing a few lineups.

Snapshot:

We’ll keep this one short and sweet. There are so many question marks surrounding this one, thus making it very difficult to pin this one down from a prediction standpoint. It truly is a toss-up of a fight! The Vegas odds are reflecting this and so are the DraftKings salaries; both rightfully so. One notable item here is that Okami is taking this fight at 170 pounds - Welterweight, and his last fight was against Ovince St. Preux at 205 pounds - Light Heavyweight! He’s dropped 35 pounds since fighting last September in the UFC. He’s at a better weight for him now, but I still think that the chin is gone, and Okami’s best years are behind him….like 8 years behind him!

Both fighters have highly questionable chins. You know what? Neither fighter has a chin left. I believe that I could throw a stapler at either guy and knock them out cold with a solid strike on the button. I bet I could do it without staples in it too! Just sayin…...I did play baseball in college, so I do have a gun!

In all honesty, I’d avoid this fight. Okami has 45 professional MMA bouts under his belt, and that’s just insane! Lima’s got 18, which isn’t too shabby either. The ITD (Inside The Distance) odds aren’t great, so I wouldn’t be surprised if this one ends in a decision. I would 100% avoid this fight in your Cash lineups. I will sprinkle in some Okami here and there, and I may have a small ownership share of Lima as well. You should only be considering these guys in GPP’s, but I’d be concerned owning these guys in any format! The unpredictability of this one should have you scampering for the hills. This could be a grinding affair against the cage, or could easily end with someone unconscious, lying face down with feces in their pants. It happens.

PICK: Lima, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: N/A - No EFFing way!

GPP: N/A - Maybe a small share of either, but I’ll be avoiding.

Snapshot:

Here’s a fight that really is just the opposite of the prior fight. Lima and Okami had 63 professional MMA fight between them, where Dobson and Mueller have an insane 8 total fights between them, out of their combined 8 fights, six of them have gone to a decision! Not exactly what we’re looking for in young, up and coming prospects. There is very little tape or info on either of these fighters, so we’ll tread lightly when it comes to ownership levels. Dobson (3-1) is 29 and is 1-0 in the UFC. The Arlington, Texas native defeated Ariel Beck via TKO in her UFC debut back in December, after losing via TKO to Roxanne Modafferi on The Ultimate Fighter in July of last summer.

Lauren Mueller (4-0) is 26 and she’s making her UFC debut. The “Princess Tiger” won a fight on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series to get a contract to compete in the UFC, but overall doesn’t have much experience. She hails from “A Whale’s Vagina” (San Diego for you youngsters).

Both of these women have fought lousy competition and neither looks like a future contender from what I’ve seen. Without much tape to gone on, I’ll be avoiding this one for the most part as well. Again, another mid-tier fight that either has unknowns in it, or fighters that we really don’t want to take a risk on. The high percentage of decisions that these women are producing at such an early point in their careers is highly concerning to me. I’d rather save my cash and spend it elsewhere - you should too!

PICK: Do I have to? - Dobson, Decision, Super-Split

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: N/A - Just watch and be bored. Go to get a beer or something.

Snapshot:

Gilbert Burns (13-2) is 31 and he’s 5-2 in the UFC. The Brazilian is coming off of a brutal KO win over Jason Saggo, a much-needed victory for him after losing two of three. Since he’s mostly known for his ground game, it was nice to see him get a knockout. Burns has greatly improved his striking game since his UFC debut back in July of 2014 (Unanimous Decision win over Andreas Stahl), but he still has some serious holes in said striking game. His ground game is awesome, as mentioned before, but his gas tank is pretty gross, and you know that I really like fighters with good cardio. This sport is so punishing, and it will find a way to expose fighters who haven’t rounded their games out. The sport also will find fighters with poor cardio, and find a way for their opponents to take advantage of this weakness. Burns is one of the highest favored fighters on the card with a -605 Vegas line and a DK salary of $9,400! His cardio scares me, but Burns is just much better in every facet of the game when compared to Moret.

Dan Moret (13-3) is 33 and he’s making his UFC debut here on short notice filling in for the injured Lando Vannata. The MMA Lab product has won two-straight fights by submission and overall has eight submission wins in his career, but he was knocked out just two fights ago which is a concern. The MMA Lab has been producing a lot of high level guys recently, so you know he’s getting proper training for this fight, but I don’t think this is going to help him out in this one! Moret is a tall, lanky fighter (6’0”, 145 lbs), and I foresee Burns getting inside and overpowering the debuting fighter.

Burns is the far superior fighter in this matchup, and I believe it’s stylistically just a bad fight for Moret. The UFC is feeding him to the wolves on short notice, but often times this is how you need to cut your teeth in the UFC and how you get another shot with the organization, with a full fight camp, and against a more favorable opponent. From a DFS perspective Burns will be one of the most highly owned fighters on the card, and you’ll have to pay up to roster him. I like Burns a lot in Cash, as he’s my favorite Cash game fighter on the card. I like him a lot in GPP’s, so I’ll definitely have my fair share of him, but I know I’ll have to combine burns with a cheap live dog in order to make him fit. He will most likely be the most popular fighter on the card as well, so this will temper my excitement for rostering him in GPP’s. He’ll be in a fair share of my GPP lineups, but I’ll have plenty of contrarian based lineups with Burns not included as well.

PICK: Burns, Submission, 1st    

Cash Game: Burns (9.5/10): Favorite Cash game play on the card.

GPP: Burns (8.5/10): His price and popularity have tempered my ranking for him.

Snapshot:

In the next fight we have Brad Tavares (16-4) taking on Krystof Jotko (19-3). This fight has some crazy odds value on one of the fighters, and I’m sure he’ll be the highest owned fighter on the card. The betting line has settled around a pick ‘em here, with Tavares holding a very slight edge in the line at -120. When comparing the betting lines that are pretty much a toss-up to the DK salaries, you’ll immediately see the line value, as Jotko is priced at a stupidly low $7,400, and Tavares stands at $8,800! Tavares is 11-4 in the UFC and on a 3 fight winning streak, but those 3 victories have not been against great competition, and they’ve all been by decision. 60% of Tavares’ fights have gone to a decision, and that’s really not what I’m looking for in a rosterable fighter. His price tag is WAAAYYY too high, and I won’t have one measly share of Tavares in any format. Just too pricey for the likely outcome, especially with a ceiling that’s as low as the veteran gatekeeper’s is.

Jotko (19-3) is 28 and he’s 6-3 in the UFC. The Pole is on a two-fight losing streak at the moment and was knocked out by Uriah Hall in his last fight but prior to that he had reeled off five-straight wins. He’s a big middleweight with good wrestling and solid striking skills, though he also lacks in stopping power. He also has a penchant for having his fights go the distance with 59% of his fights being decided by the judges.

Yes, I think this is going to be a close fight, but I like Jotko’s skills, Fight IQ, and cardio much more than I like Tavares’. Factor in the DK prices, and I have an easy decision on my hands. I like Jotko in all formats, so don’t be hesitant to roster him! You know he’ll be highly owned, but you need to accept it and move on, because the betting odds have told us that there is some serious line value here, and we cannot miss this bus!

PICK: Jotko, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: Jotko (8/10): A great value here, but I wish we could have more confidence in his odds of victory. Regardless, we’ll take the value while we can get it!

GPP: Jotko (9/10): He’ll allow to roster some higher priced fighters (Burns maybe?)! He’ll be highly owned, and that’s what is preventing him from being ranked a 9.5 or 10 in GPP’s.

Snapshot:

John Moraga (18-6) is 34 and he’s 7-5 in the UFC. Moraga is another product of the previously mentioned MMA Lab in Arizona, so he’ll be fighting in front of his home crowd in this one. Moraga is coming off of back-to-back wins including a huge upset KO over Magomed Bibulatov in his last outing where he was a HUGE underdog at +375 - the biggest ‘dog on the card! While he has lost when he’s fought elite fighters, he’s generally beat most mid-level fighters he’s fought and has served well as a gatekeeper. He’s had an impressive career with 12 battles in the UFC, first breaking into the organization way back in the summer of 2012! Guys a warrior, but an inconsistent warrior at that, but recently he’s seemed to have found some success with a shocking knock out of Magomed Bibulatov as the aforementioned +375 underdog, and a unanimous decision victory over Australian Ashkan Mokhtarian as a -175 favorite where he racked up 98 DK points with a $9,200 price tag, as he did a very good job of landing punches, getting takedowns, and racking up advances.

Wilson Reis (22-8) is 33 and he’s 6-4 in the UFC. The Brazilian is coming off of back-to-back losses but has generally served well as a gatekeeper in the UFC just like Moraga. Reis is a very solid grappler but his striking leaves a lot to be desired and his chin is not very durable. In all reality, his chin may be his weakest attribute at this point in his career, as he seems to get dropped in pretty much every fight that he’s in. Moraga hasn’t proved to be heavy handed over his career, but he recently one punch KO’ed Bibulatov back in October, so we know it can be done, and he’s coming in here with some serious KO confidence, and that may be all he needs!

This will be a competitive scrap and really could go either way. This fight, similar to the Jotko/Tavares’ fight, has tightened up quite a bit from a betting line perspective, so we’re getting quite a bit of line value here with Moraga. Reis is a much more accomplished grappler, while Moraga is a better wrestler, but I don’t think that Moraga will want to go to the ground here with how well versed Reis is on the mat. He’s definitely got some confidence in his hands right now, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he started to work over Reis on the feet, and knowing how much Reis’ chin has faded over the past few years, I have much more confidence in Moraga possibly ending this fight with his hands than I would have a year ago. It’s a risk, but I’m willing to roll the dice and roster Moraga in a good portion of my GPP’s. He’ll be highly owned though, as everyone also saw his KO as the big Dog last year, and everyone has also seen Reis weak chin. This also makes me want to roster Reis in a few lineups as well in GPP’s, as we definitely want to be contrarian to the field and Reis will provide that opportunity with also giving us some solid upside, especially if he gets this fight to the ground!

PICK: Moraga, KO, 1st

Cash Game: N/A - Too close to call for my Cash LU’s

GPP: Moraga (7/10): Yes, I like his line value here, and I like his last performance, but that doesn’t make him a great GPP play. I’ll have some shares, but I’ll be cautious knowing his entire fighting career has a lot of inconsistency mixed in.

  Reis (7.5/10): I think the masses will avoid Reis, so this means I’ll have some shares of him. Yes I’ll pay for him, but he’ll be a nice differentiator.

Snapshot:

Muslim Salikhov (13-3) is 33 and he’s 0-1 in the UFC. The Russian came into the UFC on an 11-fight win streak that included a brutal KO win over Melvin Guillard but he lost in an upset to Alex Garcia in his UFC debut, getting choked out in the process. Despite the loss to Garcia, I still think Salikhov is a solid fighter at 170lbs and his mix of grappling and striking should win him a few fights in the Octagon. All of his 12 stoppages have come in the 1st round, 10 via KO and 2 by submission. Salikhov is a Kung-Fu practitioner who throws a bevy of spinning kicks that are fun to watch. When he’s given the proper distance to set these strikes up, he typically lands them with incredible consistency, often putting his foes on the ground in a heap of human remains. If his opponents don’t let him have his distance, and don’t let him get off, then it could very easily be a long night for the ATT trained fighter. His alliance with ATT should help him put together intelligent gameplans, and these are a must when you have the type of striking game that Salikhov has. He must listen to Mike Brown at practice and during the fight, and implement the game plan that he has put together for him. If he can do that, then Salikhov should end this one in exciting fashion!

Ricky Rainey (13-4) is 34 and he’s making his UFC debut, filling in on short notice for the injured Abdul Razak Alhassan. Rainey is a curious choice to replace the transplant from Ghana. It isn’t that Rainey is without talent. On the contrary, he’s a hell of an athlete for his age. However, that’s the issue; Rainey is 34. Nonetheless, Rainey stands a good chance of pulling off the upset as he will have the edge in athleticism in addition to owning some underrated power in his hands. The issue for the Bellator veteran has always been his lack of wrestling and shortcomings in the grappling department. He can survive on the ground, but that’s about it.The American had a nice run in Bellator, going 5-2 overall in that promotion including back-to-back wins in his last two fights. It was surprising to see Bellator release him, but it’s likely Rainey wanted to fight in the UFC all along.

Having said that, I think this is a tough matchup for Rainey. Salikhov will be the better fighter on the ground and on the feet, and I think he has a chance to win this fight by knockout. I think both fighters will want to stand and bang, and this will eventually mean that Salikhov will connect on one of his spinning kicks, injure his foe like a wounded deer in the woods, running for his life. The Russian will follow the blood trail, eventually find the injured Rainey, and will pounce with fight ending power in his hands as the fight rips him off the downed opponent!

This is a tough one from  DFS perspective, as Rainey definitely holds some value here with a low price tag of $7,300! I think he should be priced in the high $7k’s, or right about $8k, so we’re definitely getting some value here. I don’t think Rainey wins, but he’s worth gambling on in a few GPP lineups. I think this is Salikhov’s real entrance into the UFC, and the start to an impressive run. His ownership won’t be insane though, as he didn’t look good in his UFC debut. Now’s the time to own him before the secret’s out! Much of the general public will be scared of Salikhov due to his subpar performance against Alex Garcia, but keep in mind, Garcia is a strong wrestler where he really took it the Russian. Rainey is not this type of fighter at all, so we will not see such a poor performance from Salikhov.

PICK: Salikhov, KO, 2nd

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: Salikhov (7/10): Too many question marks, but I think he’ll end this one early and get a knockdown in the process. Tough to payoff his salary though, so proceed with caution.     

          Rainey (7.5/10): His price tag makes him intriguing here, but it will be a very tough fight for him. I wouldn’t invest too much in him, but he’s worth a risk in some GPP’s.

Snapshot:

Junior (9-2, 1 NC) is 28 and he’s 6-2, 1 NC in the UFC. Carlos Junior seems to have figured things out after a rough opening to his UFC career, putting together four wins in a row. However, he has also been facing competition far below what Boetsch is used to fighting. Nonetheless, Carlos Junior has earned this opportunity with his world-class BJJ skills. His striking is still holding him back from being elite, but he’s improved his wrestling enough to the point his striking is becoming less of an issue all the time. In his last two fights he’s put up 110 and 96 DraftKings points respectively in submission wins over Marshman and Spicely. This is another perfect matchup for Junior to continue his string of submission finishes, as Boetsch is not known for his BJJ game, and he’s lost numerous times by early submission. Boetsch should want to keep this one up write and make it a grinding battle against the cage,

Boetsch (21-11) is 37 and he’s 12-10 in the UFC. The American has been on a roll as of late with three wins by knockout in his last four fights. He’s served well as a gatekeeper but has never been able to reach the heights of contender. Despite having KO power, his chin hasn’t held up too well and his ground game has a lot of openings. Still, he’s very tough and has come out with the win as the underdog numerous times in the past. Experiencing a late-career resurgence with three wins in his last four appearances – all of them KO/TKO finishes – it’s plausible he could end up adding to his highlight reel.

I really like the matchmaking here, as you have two UFC vets who know how to compete, and who have both turned their careers around after faltering at one point in time or another. Both of these fighters won’t go down without a fight, and they know what it takes to succeed at the highest levels of the sport. The real question becomes, can Boetsch land that big shot that he needs to end the fight? I don’t foresee him avoiding the ground for 3 rounds and pulling off a decision victory. Back Junior up against the cage, landing some short elbows and punches, and eventually connecting with a big shot that will put the Brazilian out, is the only hope that the Mainer has. Junior wants this one on the ground, and I think he eventually gets it there, and once he does, he’ll make quick work of the 22 UFC fight vet.

PICK: Junior, Submission, 1st

Cash Game: Junior (7.5/10)

GPP: Junior (7/10): High price and high ownership scares me here, but I think he puts up a big number.         

   Boetsch (7.5/10): I like Boetsch more in GPP’s because of his cheap price tag, and he’ll definitely be low owned, and we like this attribute in our GPP LU’s. A great contrarian play here, because if he does win, it will be early, and by a stoppage. He’s worth the risk in my book!

Snapshot:

Ok, here we go! After only 9 fights on the card last week for UFC 223, UFC on Fox 29: Glendale is throwing an unheard of 14 fights at us come Saturday night! I don’t think I’ve ever seen a UFC card with 14 fights on it before! I’ve judged plenty of regional cards that have had 25 - 30 fights on that card, and man…..way too long of a night! You may be the most hardcore MMA fan on earth, but after 8 hours, watching people punch each other in the face starts to get old. 14 fights on this UFC card is close to too much, but after 9 fights last week, we’ll take it and be thankful. The 11th fight of the night is an awesome women’s fight with the “Karate Hottie”, Michelle Waterson taking on Courtney “Cast Iron” Casey in a Flyweight donnybrook!

Waterson (14-6) is 32 and she’s 2-2 in the UFC. The Jackson-Wink fighter from New Mexico  opened up her UFC career with back-to-back submission wins but has since lost two-straight fights, albeit to Rose Namajunas and Tecia Torres. Waterson has a lot of hype around her, and most of it is warranted, but a good amount of the hype is based around her physical appearance, because she is pretty damn hot…..in my opinion. She’s a cutie, but a cutie who could definitely kick the shit out of you if you tried to touch her inappropriately or if you said something that set her off! She’s got some slick striking, mostly centered around her karate-based kicking game, but her hands have improved with her training with Mike Winklejohn at Jackson-Wink. Her ground game is coming along, but she still isn’t ready to compete or win on the mat yet, so when you add it all together, there aren’t a lot of ways for Waterson to pull this win off. Her striking is elite level, but there isn’t much power behind these strikes, and Casey has proven that she can take a punch, so the Karate Hottie may have a difficult time stopping Casey before the final bell. I definitely do not agree with the ITD props listed above in the tale of the tape, as Casey’s ITD line is listed at +525, while Waterson is at +367. I think these should be flipped, although I don’t foresee this one ending before the final bell. Take the -250 line on the “Fight going to a Decision”. Not a huge return, but take the money while you can!

Another MMA Lab product, Cortney Casey (7-5) is 30 and has a 3-4 in the UFC since her debut back in July of 2015. Casey was an all offense, no defense fighter upon her UFC entry. While it led to some nice bonus money as she earned FOTN in her first two UFC contests, she didn’t pick up a win in either contest. While she is still an offensive-minded fighter, Casey no longer spends the entirety of her time in the pocket waiting for the opposition to touch her up the way she did in her earlier fights. In fact, her offensive arsenal has grown to include the occasional takedown to keep opponents on their toes and some sneaky grappling chops to boot.

Few can be as aggressive as Casey is and find the level of success she has, but her unique toughness and size for the division allow her to get away with it. Casey will have  a HUGE size advantage over Waterson, and I think this will play a big factor in the fight. Casey will be able to dictate where this fight takes place due to her big size advantage. Casey is a very high scoring fighter when she is allowed to stay on the feet and bang, and this is exactly what will happen Saturday night, as Waterson will not be looking to take this one to the ground

This is a pretty even fight from a betting line and a DK salary perspective, and with all things considered, I have to lean towards Casey. I think the size advantage will play a big factor in this one. Casey will keep this one standing, and will look to beat up Waterson against the cage, in the pocket, and not let Waterson get her distance to throw her kicks and strikes from the outside. Waterson has also proven to be able to take a punch and has a solid chin. This is good, as it will allow Casey to rack up some serious striking points before winning on the judges scorecards. I really like Casey’s upside with the $8,300 salary.

PICK: Casey, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: Casey (8/10): Not a guaranteed win, but I like this matchup, and her size advantage is a big factor in this win.

GPP: Casey (8/10): Probably won’t stop her, but has proven to still be able to rack up points in decision victories. I don’t think she’ll be very highly owned either.

Snapshot:

Here we go! The 3rd to last fight of the night is a well-matched Middleweight bout that will allow the UFC fans a serious look at Israel Adesanya. Remember that name, because he has a shot at doing something very special in the Octagon! It should tell you how highly the UFC thinks about him if they are putting him as the 3rd to last fight on a 14 fight card that will air on big boy Fox! Adesanya (12-0) is 28 and he’s only 1-0 in the UFC, winning by knockout over Rob Wilkinson in his UFC debut. The Nigerian has won all 12 of his pro MMA fights by knockout and his striking is living up to the hype as he’s a former Glory kickboxer. His wrestling is still a work in progress, but as far as striking goes he’s one of the best guys right now at 185 lbs. He reminds me a lot of Bellator’s stud, “Venom” Michael Page, but I think IA is a little more refined than Page, which is crazy to think about as this is only IA’s 2nd UFC fight!

Marvin Vettori (12-3-1) is 24 and he’s 2-1-1 in the UFC. The Italian is coming off of a draw against Omari Akhmedov in a terrific fight where he was able to show his heart and cardio after getting hurt early. Vettori is a very well-rounded prospect and constantly improving his game, but the UFC has did him no favors in this matchup. Vettori will definitely have his hands full in this one, but the Kings MMA prospect has been steadily improving as a striker since coming into the UFC, displaying power and slick combinations. However, he doesn’t possess the speed or length of Adesanya, making remaining on the feet a risky proposition for Vettori. He isn’t an overpowering wrestler, nor is he reputed to be a great grappler, his eight submission wins coming over less-than-stellar competition. Nonetheless, he owns a significant advantage on the ground over Adesanya and has ended a bunch of contests with a deep guillotine. I’d suspect that Vettori will want to get this one to the ground ASAP, and if he does, he has a very real shot at winning this one, and being a +230 underdog, he’ll want to make his attempts at grounding the fight as early as possible!

Adesanya knows exactly what will be coming his way, so he should have been working heavily on stuff TD attempts, and keeping the fight upright. From a DFS perspective this is an interesting one. There is so much hype behind Adesanya, but is it really warranted? Vettori is a very experienced fighter. Much more experienced than AI. I’ll give it to you, Adesanya has shown some pretty impressive skills, and he definitely is more talented than Vettori, but we need to find a few Live Dogs on this card, and I think Vettori is a solid Live Dog pick, especially with a $7,100 price tag!

I’ve come to the conclusion that Vettori is a solid risk here as a Dog play. Yes, he should get his ass handed to him, but all it takes is one takedown from Vettori to change the pace of the fight, put Adesanya in an uncomfortable position, and pull off a submission victory. How much has AI improved on the ground since he started training MMA full time? It’s a good question. On top of that, Adesanya has to travel quite a ways to get to the US for the fight, while Vettori doesn’t have to travel very far at all. I have a feeling that Vettori pulls off a big upset here, but I also have a feeling that Vettori will be highly owned knowing who our other Live Dogs are that we have to choose from. I’ll have quite a bit of Vettori in my lineups, but I’ll also replace him with Tim “The Barbarian” Boetsch in a good amount of my LU’s, because you’ll want to have some LU’s that have a lower owned Live Dog than what Vettori is providing us, and Boetsch gives this to us. I’ll have some exposure to Adesanya as well, because I think he won’t be as highly owned as he probably should be! I have a feeling that there will be a large contingent of MMA DFS players will be on Vettori heavily due to the lack of other viable Live Dogs on the card. Have a mix of both of these guys

PICK: Adesanya, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game: Vettori (6.5/10): It’s a roll of the dice, but worth the risk in my opinion.

GPP: Adesanya (7.5/10): His high price hurts, but his ceiling is stupid high, and we love this in GPP’s. Combine in the fact that I truly think that Vettori will be more highly owned than Adesanya, than I think AI is a great play for our GPP’s, or at least a handful of the LU’s.     

Snapshot:

Alex Oliveira (18-4-1, 2 NC) is taking this one on 2 weeks noticing, filling in for an injured Matt Brown. Oliveira is 30 years old and he’s 7-3 in his UFC career. The Brazilian is a really underrated fighter in the welterweight division and deserves this opportunity to fight the legend Condit. Though Oliveira is coming off of a KO loss to Yancy Medeiros, prior to that he was undefeated in five-straight fights. He’s a tough fighter who can take a punch, and is a very physical fighter in the clinch and when he’s engaged with his opponent. His strength, size, and overall physicality will be a big plus over Condit in this one, and he should definitely take this approach when engaging with Condit - early and often.

Carlos Condit (30-11) is 33 and he’s 7-7 in the UFC. The Jackson-Wink fighter was once one of the top welterweights in the game but it appears that father time has appeared as he’s really lost a step or two in recent years. Condit is coming off of three-straight losses including an uninspiring performance against Neil Magny in his last fight. Condit has fought the best of the best throughout his career, so don’t let his record fool you or the fact that he has lost the last 3 fights he’s fought. He is still a very dangerous fighter, especially when taking on someone who hasn’t had a full fight camp to prepare. Condit has had a lot of injuries throughout his career, and to be honest, I thought he was going to hang up his gloves a year ago, as he’s been in some serious wars that have had a serious effect on his body and is most likely catching up with him now. You can’t avoid father-time forever, but Condit has done a very good job of continuing to perform at a very high level while taking part in some serious wars in the UFC Octagon!

Condit may only be 33 years old, but in fight years he’s probably closer to 48 years old! On the flip side, Cowboy still has some high level years ahead of him, and I’d argue he is starting to hit his prime, and could really make some waves in the Welterweight division this year if he can take out Condit in quick fashion, and then look to get right back in there to keep the momentum going. Oliveira’s physicality will be too much for Condit to handle, as Cowboy will walk through CC’s once-lethal striking game, and will ragdoll Condit, land heavy strikes at will, and will eventually lock up a submission, or get the TKO finish via ref stoppage. I love Carlos Condit, and he’ll go down as a UFC legend with one of the biggest hearts to ever step in the cage, but I think his time has come, and Cowboy’s time has arrived. I’ll have a solid level of exposure to Cowboy, but his $8,700 price tag will limit where I can fit him in.

PICK: Oliveira, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game: Oliveira (7.5/10): I’m very confident in his victory, and for $8,700, he better damn well win this one!

GPP: Oliveira (8/10): He’s got a pretty high ceiling, especially since we know that Condit can take a beating, and this is great for potential points!

          Condit (7/10): I’ll have a few shares due to his opponent taking the fight on short notice, but I don’t think Condit has enough left in the tank to win this one, but we need to have a few shares just in case!

Snapshot:

Here we go! The main event, and it’s a great fight that should be highly entertaining! Two fighters who love to pressure, throw haymakers, and see who can stand the longest in the pocket! Just a perfect matchup for an exciting fight! Dustin Poirier (22-5-1) is 29 and he’s 14-1, 1 NC in the UFC. The ATT product is one of the most exciting fighters in the lightweight division and overall has won nine fights by stoppage inside the Octagon. Poirier is undefeated in his last three bouts and is coming off of one of his most complete victories in the UFC, a TKO win over Anthony Pettis. Since moving to lightweight he’s looked great. The one concern I do have about Poirier is his chin as he’s been knocked out twice in the UFC, but overall he’s been an elite fighter at 155lbs. His chin has been worn down over the years, and I have a feeling that this could be the difference in the fight.

Justin Gaethje (18-1) is 29 and he’s 1-1 in the UFC. Like Poirier, Gaethje is one of the best lightweights in the world. In his UFC debut he put on a barnburner against Michael Johnson, ultimately winning by second-round knockout, then lost via TKO in his second UFC fight to Eddie Alvarez. Both fights were amazing and this one should be too. But for as good as Gaethje is offensively -- he has 15 knockout wins -- his defense leaves much to be desired. He gets tagged in all of his fights and even though he has a lot of heart eventually a human can only take so much damage and we saw him break against Alvarez. Gaethje has one of the best chins in all of the UFC, regardless of division, and this will be a big factor in the final outcome here. Both of these guys will be standing in front of each other, throwing haymakers, and Gaethje’s chin will be tested once again, as will Poirier’s. Ultimately, Justin’s chin will be stronger than Dustin’s chin, and Gaethje will walk out of the cage with his hands held high, and most likely a concussion as well!

I like Gaethje from a DFS perspective too, as he’s priced at $7,800, and will save us a little cap space. I’m not complaining at all, but I think the two salaries should be flipped. Oh well, we’ll take it!

PICK: Gaethje, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game: Gaethje (7.5/10): It’s by no means a guarantee, and we like guarantees in our Cash LU’s, but I do trust his chin more than Poirier’s.

GPP: Gathje (9/10): High ceiling, and a low price. I’ll take it!

          Poirier (7.5/10): I’ll have a few shares, but not many.

Optimal Lineups

Cash 1

GPP 1

GPP 2 - Contrarian