MMA DFS Playbook: Fight Night 122

So you think you have it tough, huh? Hard life? Think about this; while you were shoving food down your throat like it was going out of style, there were 24 fighters in Shanghai, China avoiding food, sweating out the last few pounds before they needed to weigh-in under their respective fight weight limits Friday morning our time. These guys were in the pits of hell, wondering why they put their bodies through this torment fight after fight, while you were on your 3rd serving of apple pie, and your 7th IPA while shooting the shit with uncle Frank. You don’t have it bad at all! You got a great life - so be thankful for it, and count your blessings this holiday season. Tell your wife and kids that you love them, and then right after that, tell them that you also love MMA! They’ll appreciate your passion for the sport.

Saturday’s fight card kicks off at 3:45 AM EST, so it's a super inconvenient card for basically everyone in the entire country. Will I be up at 3:45 for the first fight? Hell no, but I’ll hopefully be up by the 4th or 5th fight. We’ll see - game time decision. This card is littered with first time UFC combatants, and most of them hail from Asia, and have very little tape available to scout their talents, making this a difficult card to handicap. We’ll see how it works out, but if you aren’t feeling great about this one, it isn’t a bad idea to take a break, and invest little in your lineups for this card. There will be plenty more to come. Without further ado, here’s the fight by fight breakdown with a DraftKings twist. I’ll also throw in random bets that seem to have some value as well, so keep an eye out. As always, follow me on Twitter as I typically give out some tips leading up to the card, and will live Tweet if the card didn’t start at the crack-ass of dawn. Enjoy, and lets make it rain!

Undercard

Snapshot:

Cyril Asker (-260, $9,200) is 1-2 in the UFC, and starts the show off as a more than 2/1 favorite in this tailor made fight to win as he takes on the UFC virgin - Hu Yaozong (+208, $7,000). Yaozong is only 3-0 in his professional career, and he has fought 3 corpses, so don’t let his perfect record fool you! Yaozong, a Chinese fighter, and is taking this fight on very short notice (less than 2 weeks), replacing James Mulheron who was flagged by USADA with a possible violation. I give Yaozong credit for stepping into the cage on short notice to keep the fight intact, and allow Cyril Asker to not have a completely wasted training camp. Without his proximity to the card, Yaozong doesn’t have a chance at cracking the UFC roster in the near future with the record that he currently brings to the table. But we’ve seen stranger things happen, so don’t count out the short noticer.

Cyril Asker is no one to write home about. Trust me. He is a slow, prodding, heavyweight that lacks power, technique, and athleticism. Now does that sound like the horse you want to back? I hope the hell not, because if you do, you may want to find a new hobby, because this could get expensive! As is bad as Asker is, he probably wins this fight, and he probably ends it in the first round, but it’s a big gamble. Asker should be able to press the fight and land strikes that put his Chinese foe to the mat, but that is assuming that we truly are getting a no-talent, 3 fight MMA veteran on a weeks notice. If Asker gets the fight to the mat, he should be able to control his position due to his size advantage, and eventually land the strikes that will cause the ref to stop the fight.

From a DFS perspective this is a tough one. This is such a crapshoot of a card that it is going to be difficult to put our salary dollars on 6 fighters that we have confidence in winning. It’s just the way it is, but the people who do their homework, and puts some time and effort into their prep, they will do well. It will be an interesting event, and this fight is no different. I like Asker to win, and he has a high ceiling, as he could very easily get a knockdown, and then a quick finish. Most likely resulting in 110+ points. But do you really feel great about rostering a guy who is 1-2 in the UFC, and has not looked good inside the Octagon at all? It’s the risk we take when compiling winning GPP lineups.

I’ll have exposure to Asker in some of my GPP lineups, as his ceiling is high, and he has the 2nd best Inside the Distance prop (-149) on the card, only to Gastelum (-152). I won’t touch him in Cash, as he is way too expensive for the risk that he poses for your lineups. Proceed with caution, but he has the chance of being one of the top scorers on the card if he lands a few against the local Chinese fighter.

PICK: Asker, TKO, 1st

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: Asker (8/10): Yes, a high ceiling and nice odds of victory, but the eye test really concerns me, and we know very little about his opponent.

Snapshot:

We’ll keep this one short and sweet, as it really isn’t a fight that we should be targeting in any format. There’s a shit-ton of question marks surrounding this one, as there is very little available tape on Buren (+137, $7,500), but everything that I’ve read and seen doesn’t paint the prettiest picture. Rolando Dy (-165, $8,700) is a slight favorite, and has a price tag that is just too expensive for my taste, especially with the upside (or lack there of) that Dy brings to the table.

I wouldn’t bother targeting either of these fighters in Cash or GPP. There’s a real good chance that this one will be a “feeling out” type of fight without much offensive volume or grappling involved, and when you’re looking at rostering these lighter weight class fighters, you always want them to be grappling heavy, as those are the guys who can really rack up the DK points. This will go to a decision, and it won’t be a high scorer from a DFS perspective, so leave the question marks in the cage, and move on to the next.

PICK: Dy, Dec, Split

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: N/A

Snapshot:

Man, what a stupidly shitty card this is. It has been a chore handicapping this fight card, and honestly, might be the worst card that the UFC has ever put on from top to bottom. No lie. This thing is a pile of heaping, fly covered, shit, but hey, we’ll do what we need to in order to turn a profit. With that being said, this is another fight that I would not touch with a 28 ft pole. We have a fighter in Wu that we have very little info on, but when you peel back the onion and start looking into her 9-1 record, you start to see what Wu’s path to the UFC looked like over the past few years. Of her 9 wins, Wu’s opponents have a combined 2 victories! TWO! That’s 9 fighters combined with 2 wins, and those 2 wins came from the same fighter! Ha! She has never been tested, and has never fought anyone even close to the talent level of Mazany.

Regardless of how crappy Wu’s track record is, I still don’t have any confidence in the 1 fight UFC vet, Gina Mazany. Mazany lost quickly by submission to Sarah McMann in her UFC debut, and she looked completely overmatched. With both of these fighters in the same cage, and me having absolutely no idea what’s going to happen, I’ll take my medicine and move on to the next fight!

PICK: Mazany, Sub, 2nd

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: N/A

Snapshot:

Chase Sherman (+116, $8,000) is 2-2 in the UFC, and is looking to break the .500 mark as he takes on Shamil Abdurakhimov (-142, $8,200) in this heavyweight battle. Sherman has won 2 fights in a row since dropping his first two appearances in the UFC cage. Sherman has garnered a pretty large fan base due to an exciting fighting style, and a heavy, comical presence on social media. He’s an Alan Belcher trained fighter who has an aggressive, fast-paced, striking style that typically has him throwing a lot of leg kicks, and landing an effective jab as well.

Abdurakhimov is a plodding, grinding fighter, who can take a beating, but has questionable cardio if the fight goes beyond the first round. He is a slight favorite, and has a mid-range price tag of $8,200. The Russian fighter is 36 and is on the downside of his career, but he is a well traveled vet who will not be flustered by Sherman’s fast-paced striking style. Ideally, Abdurakhimov would like to close the distance on Sherman, making his leg kicks and jab less effective, as these tools will be more effective at range. If he can push Sherman against the fence, get sporadic takedowns, dirty box in close quarters, and control the pace and place of the fight, then I could see him winning a decision victory here. This would be a very boring fight, and one that would score pretty low from a DraftKings perspective.

The other style of fight that we may see is Sherman keeping the distance, circling away from Abdurakhimov’s attempts to close the distance, and using his jab effectively. If Sherman can keep this one off of the cage and the mat, and use his striking to his advantage, then I could see him wearing down the Russian, and either stopping him late, or winning a unanimous decision. If Sherman doesn’t stop him, and he wins a decision, then I don’t think it would be a very high scoring affair - probably in the 70-85 point range. This isn’t bad considering he has an $8,000 salary. We’d take 10x here, but this one is a tough one to call, and is a ‘pick-em’ from a betting perspective. If the fight has Abdurakhimov winning, then I think it’s a boring decision victory where he earns 75 DK points. If Sherman wins, it could possibly be a stoppage, but we do know that he has a very high-paced offensive attack, averaging 6.33 Significant Strikes Landed per Minute, versus Abdurakhimov’s 2.48.

From a DFS perspective I see this as a Sherman only play, as Abdurakhimov’s game just isn’t conducive to scoring a lot of DK points. Combine that with the fact that he is 36 years old, has questionable cardio, and is fighting a younger guy who is known for a fast-paced striking attack. I think there is value in Sherman here, as the $8,000 would fit nicely in many lineup combinations. It is a risky play though, as I could easily see Abdurakhimov winning this one in a grinding affair. Proceed with caution, but I will have some exposure to Sherman in GPP’s, but will also be very popular, so his value gets reduced by this. It makes sense to fade this fight due to how heavily people will be invested in Sherman, and if you are one to handicap and put together lineups with game theory in mind, then you definitely want to consider fading this one. If you are just looking to pick the fighters with the highest upside, then Sherman is a good target for you.

PICK: Sherman, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: Sherman (7/10): Odds of victory aren’t guaranteed here, so proceed with caution, but Sherman isn’t a bad target in this matchup.

GPP: Sherman (8/10): Sherman has a nice upside for GPP formats, but he will be highly owned, and this will greatly reduce his effectiveness in your GPP lineups.

Snapshot:

The 5th fight of the night pits two debuting UFC fighters in a 135 pound contest. Song Yadong (-143, $8,600) is a 21 year old Chinese fighter who is coming off two solid wins on the regional circuit, as he continues to test his skills with tougher competition. Bharat Kandare is the first Indian born fighter to fight in the UFC, and he comes in with only having one fight in the past 4 years, and that was a submission loss to Ahmed Fares back in April under the Brave Combat Federation banner.

This is an interesting fight to handicap, as there is little known about both these fighters, but there is some fight footage out there to scout. Kandare is primarily a wrestler who looks to strike into a clinch, and then get the fight to the ground where he’ll use his heavy top game to ground and pound his opponents. Kandare’s striking is pretty horrific, and gets very sloppy once he tires. He wings punches from the hip as he lunges towards his opponents, and often times, has his chin raised in the air as he pushes forward. His footwork and striking are not UFC caliber, and his only path to victory is to get this fight to the ground, and out work his Chinese foe on the ground, either winning by TKO stoppage, or a rather boring decision.

Yadong is a young fighter that may have been ready for UFC caliber competition within 2-3 years, which you would think would be a bad thing for Yadong, but he’s not facing a UFC caliber fighter in Kandare. Yadong has solid striking that seems to improve every fight out. He doesn’t have a ton of power, but he’s effective with his punching, and is quick enough with his footwork to get out of trouble if he sees it coming. Yadong’s key to victory is to keep his distance from Kandare, don’t get pressed against the cage without at least one underhook in, and separate from Kandare as quickly as possible if he does get into a clinch with him. If he can keep his distance, use his superior footwork and hand speed, and pick Kandare apart from the outside as the Indian fighter gasses in rounds 2 and 3, then I think he has a very good shot at winning this one.

This one is of little interest to me from a DFS perspective, but I do see Kandare as a live dog, and with a salary of $7,600, he may be a fighter to target that is below $8k who may be able to get you a win. I don’t like his chances, but if he can have his way with Yadong on where this fight takes place, then he has a very good chance of out grappling, and GNP’ing his opponent into a TKO, or a decision victory. I’ll have a little exposure to Kandare in GPP’s, as he’s a solid source to save some salary, and possibly get us a W in our GPP lineups. No interest in Cash at all.

PICK: Yadong, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: Kandare (7/10): I don’t think he’ll be highly owned, and he does have a realistic path to victory, but still many question marks linger. Proceed with caution.

Snapshot:

Fight 6 is another one that has me scratching my head. I get it from a matchmaking perspective, but it’s another tough fight to handicap on a card full of tough fights to handicap. Curran is 1-5 in the UFC, and is riding a 3 fight losing streak. Why she is getting another shot in the UFC is beyond me, as 95% of fighters would be fighting on the regional scene with a 1-5 record in the UFC. Curran is a cutie, and that’s my assumption as to why she keeps getting another shot in the world’s largest MMA organization. Curran is solid on the ground from a BJJ perspective, but every other aspect of her game is pretty weak. Her wrestling is gross. Striking, below average. Fight IQ, awful! Combine all those, and she is not a fighter that I would ever target from a DraftKings perspective.

Xiaonan is coming in as a slight favorite, but her DK salary is at $7,900, which means she should be a dog from a betting perspective. Xiaonan has a -5 Rank Value, which is huge, and we should definitely take that into consideration when constructing our lineups. Xiaonan is an aggressive striker who has had a lot of success on the feet. The only way that she loses this fight is if she gets taken down by Curran, and can’t get back up. I think she’ll be able to get up though, as Curran is not much of a wrestler, and doesn’t have a very heavy top game.

This is a risky play, but I’m going to be rolling the dice with Xiaonan. I like her aggressive striking style, her price tag is great with a lot of value, and I will bet against Curran against almost anyone that the UFC would throw in front of her. There’s a risk that Curran locks up a sub, and finishes this one quickly, so I will have a small exposure to Curran, but I really like Xiaonan’s chances of victory, DK salary, and most likely will be pretty low owned.

PICK: Xiaonon, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game: Xiaonon (7/10): Not 100% confident in victory here, but nice upside with a very reasonable price tag.

GPP: Xiaonon (8.5/10): We are getting a lot of value in her salary when comparing it to her Vegas odds. We’ll take advantage of it, and hope that Curran does what she has done in the past in the Octagon; lose.

Snapshot:

Fight 7 has American Bobby Nash (-307, $9,100) taking on Chinese fighter Song Kenan (+243, $7,100). Nash went 10-0 as an amatuer before going pro in 2014, and he was doing great on the pro circuit until he made his way into the UFC ranks. He is coming off back to back KO losses to Danny Roberts in July and Jingliang Li back in January. His chin has not been his strength, but I think the UFC is setting him up for victory in this one. Song Kenan is also coming off back to back loses, but the big difference is that those loses come on the regional circuit against lesser competition than what Bobby Nash had to deal with inside the UFC cage.

Nash’s striking can look good at times, but it starts to become less effective as he tires and his cardio comes into question. Overall, Nash is a rather limited fighter, with his ceiling being the middle of the pack in the Welterweight division. Doesn’t sound great for Nash, right? Well, he’s fighting an unknown in Kenan who has not been a great fighter as of late. I would not normally back Nash, but in this spot I think he has a big advantage, and will over power the Chinese fighter, and eventually grind out either a TKO stoppage on the ground, or a somewhat boring Decision.

I like Nash’s prospects of ending this one early, but I don’t love the fact that he is priced at $9,100. That’s just too high when it comes to what you are getting with that salary. I think it will be difficult for Nash to payoff his salary if this fight makes it into the 2nd round. I think Nash wins, but I also think he’ll be highly owned, and could easily win a decision and rack up 70 points, but on the other hand, he could close this one out in the 1st and rack up 110+ points. It’s a tough one. I’ll have some exposure to Nash, but I don’t have a ton of confidence in his skills at the UFC level.

PICK: Nash, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game: Nash (6.5/10): I think he wins, but how many points does he rack up? Overpriced in my eyes, but we need to be sure of our victories in our Cash lineup.

GPP: Nash (7/10): A risk, but who may overpower Kenan and end this one via a TKO ref stoppage if he can get mount on the ground. It’s a gamble, but that’s what all of this is, right?

Snapshot:

The last fight on the undercard has a top Featherweight prospect in Zabit Magomedsharipov (-505, $9,300) taking on WSOF veteran Muay Thai fighter Sheymon Moraes (+380, $6,900). Zabit is the biggest favorite on the card, and has the highest DraftKings salary as well. This guy is loaded with potential! He is a lanky, well-rounded fighter who can finish a fight on the feet or on the mat. He trains with Mark Henry and his crew of killers in New Jersey, so his day to day training is at the elite level. He is also training partners with Marlon Moraes, which doesn’t sound like a big deal, but when you dig a little deeper, and you see that Marlon Moraes defended his WSOF Bantamweight belt against Sheymon Moraes back in August of 2015. Marlon ended up fighting a very intelligent fight, keeping the smaller Sheymon at bay, and eventually locking up a submission victory in the 3rd round.

Sheymon now has to move up a weight class, and fight one of the divisions top prospects. Sheymon has a very solid Muay Thai game, and has found himself with his hand raised due to KO in 5 of his 9 victories. He could very easily land that one punch that connects with Zabit’s chin, and it shocks the world, but more often than not, I see Zabit using his well-rounded MMA game to outperform Moraes in every facet of the sport. Zabit will eventually find his mark, force Moraes to the mat, and lock up a submission victory. Probably in the 2nd or 3rd round. This is a risky proposition for a fighter costs $9,300.

From a DraftKings perspective I think this is one that we should probably have some exposure to, but one that I will fade for the most part, as everyone and their brother will be on Zabit, and in a GPP format, we really want a lineup that will differentiate us from a majority of the entrants. Zabit is a risky play because it handcuffs your lineup construction, and if he is going to be owned by more than 50% of the field (which I think he will), then he won’t do much for our lineups, but he will be a focal point of my Cash lineups. Zabit is a top-end prospect who could very easily be fighting for a title in the next 2 years. He also has great Fight IQ, and trains with elite level fighters on a daily basis with great coaching. I like his chances of an impressive victory, but Moraes is a tough vet who could very easily drag this one into the 2nd or 3rd round, and if that happens, then it will be tough for him to pay off his salary. It’s a gamble, and I will have some exposure to Zabit, and a few contrarian plays on Moraes, but this one is a good one to fade if you can due to Zabit’s high salary and high ownership levels.

PICK: Zabit, Sub, 2nd

Cash Game: Zabit (9/10): I like his chances of victory, but he’s a tough salary to throw onto your roster. High upside though.

GPP: Zabit (8/10): I would like him more if he wasn’t going to be so highly owned, but still the highest upside on the card.

Moraes (7/10): I’ll have a contrarian lineup or two with Moraes mixed in. He’ll be very low owned, and if he lands that punch, he’ll be a HUGE addition to our GPP lineups.

Main Card

Snapshot:

The 1st fight on the main card is a solid matchup between debuting Russian stud, Muslim Salikhov (-218, $8,900), who is coming off a 1st round KO win over Melvin Guillard back in June of this year, taking on Alex Garcia (+174, $7,300). Garcia is a 7 fight UFC veteran, and has beaten the likes of Mike Pyle and Mike Swick in the UFC, but also has losses to Tim Means and Neil Magny during his 4-3 UFC run.

Salikhov enters the welterweight division on a 10 fight winning streak with 8 of those victories coming by way of knockout. He has impressive power, and uses and array of spinning punches and kicks to surprise his opponents, and keep them off balance. He has a solid wrestling game, and overall is a physical specimen who often overpowers his foes with brute strength and athleticism.  

Garcia has solid striking, and a very good wrestling pedigree. He’ll want to look to take this one to the ground as soon as possible, but that’s a tall task with Salikhov. Garcia seems to gas very quickly, and this is often his downfall in many of his loses. He just doesn’t have cardio that allows him to be effective in rounds 2 and 3. He truly is a one round fighter. He is a muscle-bound fighter who has impressive power when he has position. He reminds me a lot of elite wrestler, Hector Lombard, and looks a lot like him too. Lombard typically is a world-beater in the 1st round, but once the fight gets into the 2nd round, his muscle-bound frame seems to give out, and his cardio puts him in danger. This is that same issue that Garcia has.

From a DFS perspective I think this will be one of the higher scoring fights on the card, with the winner earning 100+ points easily. I think that Salikhov will be too much for Garcia, especially if the fight gets into the 2nd round, but Garcia does have a punchers chance at winning this one, and with that, I’ll have exposure to both these guys in GPP, but a much heavier ownership of Salikhov. I’ll have a few lineups with Garcia, because if he does pull out a crazy upset here, it will be quick, it will be violent, and it will be a high scoring DraftKings fight! A great fight to target, with a solid lean on Salikhov.

PICK: Salikhov, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game: Salikhov (9.5/10): I like his odds of winning, and his $8,900 is reasonable for his upside.

GPP: Salikhov (9/10): Garcia’s lack of cardio will allow Salikhov to win this one by stoppage, and most likely payoff the $8,900 salary that the Russian has.

Garcia (8/10): I’ll have some exposure to Garcia as well, because if he pulls off the upset, it will be HUGE for our GPP lineups!

Snapshot:

Alex Caceres (-149, $8,500) is 8-8 in the UFC, and at times have looked great against lower level UFC competition, but often times looked mediocre when fighting the division’s top 15. He doesn’t seem to rise to the occasion when fighting better fighters, but he’s a world beater when he overmatches his opponents. Wang Guan (+125, $7,700) is 13-1, and has fought professional for 10 years on the regional circuit. One thing that is common with all of these debuting UFC fighters from China, is that they all have fought incredibly awful competition during their regional run. This makes it stupidly difficult to predict how good these fighters really are.

More often than not, the step up in competition to the UFC is too much for these debuting foreign fighters, as their regional record is littered with “cans”, and they’ve never been tested against top-level competition. Beyond that, most fighters that are planted within the UFC ranks are training in America at a top tier camp, or if they are training overseas, they are with a reputable camp that prepares them properly. These debuting Chinese fighters do not have the luxury of training with top level coaches and other top-level fighters in their local Chinese camps. This huge gap in training level often will dictate how the fight will play out during their UFC debut. If you surround yourself with killers, and have a coaching staff that knows how to implant a high-level Fight IQ into you, then you’ll often smoke the debuting foreign fighter who has a padded record, and a low-level training camp.

I think this plays out in this fight too. Guan has a great record, but he hasn’t fought anyone even close to UFC caliber. This will be the toughest fight of his career to date, as Alex Caceres has 16 fights in the UFC, and has been battle tested to a point that he knows what to expect once those Octagon doors lock. Guan on the other hand is entering this fight with a lot of questions running through his head. Is he good enough? Will he be finished? Was my training camp good enough? These will all play a factor in how the fight turns out, and I am banking on Caceres’ experience and Fight IQ, combined with Guan’s lack of experience and Fight IQ to be a big difference maker in this fight.

So what does this mean from a DFS perspective? Caceres will most likely look to keep this fight standing, and strike from the outside, circling to avoid a big shot from Guan. If Caceres plans on striking at range and circling away, this could be a very long night for Guan and our GPP lineups if we happened to roster Caceres. If “Bruce Leroy” takes some chances, and doesn’t mind going to the mat with Guan, then he may be able to earn a cool 90+ points in a decision victory, or possibly submit Guan in the first 2 rounds. My anticipation is that Caceres will look to win this one on the feet, and use his length, experience, and superior Fight IQ to outpoint the Chinese fighter on the judges’ scorecards.

This won’t be a fight that I have targeted high on the list for this event, as there are too many question marks. Caceres is known to be very inconsistent in the cage, and Guan we have no idea what we’re getting since he’s fought corpses up until this point on the Asian regional scene. I don’t think Caceres will lose due to a stoppage, as he has a pretty solid chin, knows how to get out tough positions, and has the wherewithal to stay out of trouble. This limits Guan upside greatly. If Caceres keeps this fight standing, and wins a decision, then he will have a tough time paying off his $8,500 salary. If Caceres takes this fight to the ground, gets some takedowns, advances position a few times, and gets the submission victory, then he could put up a solid 110+ DK score, but knowing which style Caceres will employ is difficult to predict, as I think he has the advantage on the feet, and on the mat.      

PICK: Caceres, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: Caceres (8/10): I think this is a safe play with some upside. I think Caceres’ experience is too much for Guan to overcome on this stage. He’ll get you a win, and hopefully at least 70+ points.

GPP: Caceres (7/10): He has upside, depending on which style he employs, but he also has been an inconsistent performer over his years in the UFC, and who knows which Alex shows up Saturday night. It’s a gamble.

Snapshot:  

Currently the best fighter coming out of China is Li Jingliang (-188, $8,800), as he has a 5-2 record in the UFC, and has shown to be a very good, heavy-handed striker with a solid ground game to boot. His striking defense and chin are both elements of his game that you need to be aware of when rostering the 29 year old Chinese fighter, as they are definitely weaknesses of his entering this fight. Jingliang has improved tremendously since he first made his UFC debut back in May of 2014, and he’s made this improvement through traveling the world and training with the best of the best, and not relying on what the camps in China provide.

Zak Ottow (+155, $7,400) is 2-1 in the UFC with three split decision victories, and they are not against top level competition. He ended up beating Josh Burkman and Kiichi Kunimoto by split decision, and lost the other to Sergio Moraes. None of these 3 fighters are world-beaters, and for Ottow to barely squeak out victories in 2 of these 3 fights doesn’t say much about his upside and long term potential.

Ottow is a tough, grinding fighter who is a BJJ brown belt, but has also developed an average striking game over the past few years, allowing him to compete when striking on the feet. Ottow does a great job of making the fights the he is in competitive, regardless of what the odds say. His style of fighting is a cautious one that often leads to close decisions, and this is not the type of fighter or fight that we are looking to target when trying to compile a roster that will take down a large GPP. If Ottow wins this one, which he does have a chance to, I think it’s via an uneventful decision where he gets the fight to the ground, and uses heavy top position to outpoint Jingliang. If this fight stays on the feet, then I think it is Jingliang’s to win. He has quicker, more effective striking compared to what Ottow brings to the table, but he does leave himself open to getting hit while in the pocket, and this could ultimately be the demise of the Chinese fighter.

In almost every fight that Jingliang has had he has been rocked by a punch. This makes me question his chin, but moreso, question his striking defense, as he definitely leaves himself open to counter punching as he comes forward and steps into the pocket. He doesn’t keep his hands high enough to defend properly, and I’ve noticed that his cinder block shaped head is a big target to hit when he’s winging punches in the pocket. If Ottow lands one on his chin, he has a chance to swarm and end the Chinese fighter’s night early. Ottow would be a great fighter to target if you are into game theory, and want to own the guys that no one wants. I think much of the field will overlook him due to his unimpressive output, and his 3 previous split decisions in the UFC. This makes him a perfect target from a contrarian perspective, and if Ottow does end up winning by stoppage within the first frame, then it will be a HUGE differentiating win against the rest of the GPP field.

It’s a risky fight to target, and I will most likely avoid this one for the most part, but if I had a gun to my head, I’d take Jingliang, as he’s fighting in front of his home country, didn’t have to travel halfway across the world, and has been improving steadily during his UFC career. I will also have a few lineups with Ottow in them, because if he does get the stoppage victory, it will be a big plus for our GPP lineups.

PICK: Jingliang, Decision, Split

Cash Game: Jingliang (7/10): I don’t love this one, but he has an aggressive, high volume striking style that can rack up DK points if effective.

GPP: Jingliang (7.5/10): His odds of victory aren’t as high as I’d like in this matchup, but he does have the power and skillset to end this fight before the final bell, but it will be a chore against a very game Ottow.

Ottow (6.5/10): I like Ottow as a contrarian play in a few lineups, as I think he’ll be pretty low owned. Combine this fact with Jingliang having a questionable chin, and shaky cardio, and I think Ottow has a pretty good chance at shocking the world halfway across the planet.

Snapshot:

The main event of an awful card is pretty solid, and we’ll get into the main event analysis shortly, but first a few comments on this card. This is an awful card from top to bottom when you consider everyone’s talent level on the card. We have 11 of 24 fighters who are making their UFC debuts, and most of them have had successful on a regional circuit that is filled with corpses, and homeless guys looking for a paycheck. The Chinese regional scene has some of the worst matchmaking on earth! The few high level fighters that they have in China are often pitted against awful fighters, allowing them to look impressive, and build up their status within the Chinese MMA scene. Asians also enjoy watching mismatched, David vs. Golliath fights, as their culture celebrates the underdog warrior spirit, and they often try to artifically create this landscape through poor matchmaking. It was common to see crazy weird matchups in Pride when they were in their hayday as well. Fans in Asia love to see contradicting styles, and more importantly, they love to see contradicting physiques. That’s why the Pride Open Weight tournaments were so popular there. Something that would never fly in the US due to the heavy government regulation that should prevent these type of fights from being put together due to the safety risks associated with them.

Anyway, I’ve stepped down from my soapbox, and am ready to tackle this main event from a DFS perspective. Kelvin Gastelum (-293, $9,000) is 12 years younger than Michael Bisping (+234, $7,200), and has 22 less pro MMA fights under his belt than Bisping. These are relevant factors, as Bisping may have recently been the belt holder in the middleweight division, but I think the wear and tear that he’s put on his body over the past 28 fights, and more than 11 years that he has spent competing in the UFC. Bisping fought less than a month ago, and was finished by GSP in losing his belt, and to see him turn around so quickly to compete halfway across the world against a fresh fighter who is 12 years younger than him, does concern me. With so much concern surrounding CTE, and much of the brain trauma resulting from a 2nd concussive blow too close the first one, and not letting the brain heal properly before jumping back in, is somewhat heart breaking. Bisping may ultimately end up in the UFC Hall of Fame some day due to his wars inside the UFC cage, but it also may come at a cost, as it’s hard to pinpoint another fighter who has sustained as much damage as he has in the cage.

Gastelum is returning to the cage after losing by submission to Chris Weidman back in July. Gastelum is one of the more talented, well-rounded fighters in the middleweight division, but this fight is not going to be a walk in the park for him, and I think is a much closer fight than what the odds are depicting (Gastelum -293 favorite). I think Gastelum should at most be a -200 favorite, as Bisping has a heart of a lion, and will compete with anyone that he’s matched up against.

Gastelum has the best Inside the Distance prop on the card at -152, and this is definitely something that we weigh heavily when evaluating fights from a DFS value perspective. Both fighters throw strikes at an impressive rate, but I think Gastelum is a cleaner, more powerful boxer when comparing him to Bisping. I wouldn’t sleep on Bisping’s striking though, as he is a craft vet who’s been tested many times before. I also give Gastelum the edge when it comes to wrestling. Gastelum most likely won’t be able to submit Bisping when on the ground, but I could see heavy top position with an effective ground N pound that could potentially have the fight stopped.

Also keep in mind that this is the only 5 round fight on the card, so we are getting some artificial upside from that perspective as well. I think it will be a competitive fight, and the betting line should be closer than where it currently lies, but I do think that Gastelum has the advantage in too many areas for Bisping to overcome. I also think Bisping is jumping back into the cage too quickly after a TKO loss to GSP less than a month ago.

This is a great fight to target from a DFS perspective, regardless of which fighter you want to roster, but from a strategic perspective, and knowing the quality of the rest of the fighters on the card, I’d lean towards Gastelum as someone that you should consider in both Cash and GPP formats. It isn’t a bad idea to have some Bisping mixed in as well, because if he can push this one to a decision, then he’ll most likely rack up at least 45-50 points in a loss, which isn’t too bad for a $7,200 fighter on your roster.

PICK: Gastelum, TKO, 3rd

Cash Game: Gastelum (9/10): Yes, there is risk in rostering Gastelum in your Cash LU, as Bisping is incredibly experienced, and could pull out a victory, but I like Gastelum’s game, and how it fits the DK scoring system.

GPP: Gastelum (9/10): Gastelum has a great upside, even if it goes to a decision due to the 5 round fight. I think he can stop Bisping, especially since “The Count” was stopped less than a month ago. Is his chin ready for another heavy striker? Probably not.

Bisping (6.5/10): From a contrarian perspective, this is a good one to target, as he’ll most likely win in a high scoring affair, but odds are he loses, so play accordingly.

Optimal Lineups

Cash 1

GPP 1