MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night 120

After one of the craziest UFC cards that you will ever see took place last week, we now are running it back 7 days later with a pretty solid Fight Night card taking place in Norfolk, Virginia. The main event of Dustin Poirier vs. Anthony Pettis should be a barn burner, and there a few other fights on the card like this one that could go either way, and will be incredibly entertaining. One fight in particular that I’m really looking forward to that should have taken place 3 years ago is Joe Lauzon vs. Clay Guida! This will be fireworks from the opening bell, and I can’t wait to see how it plays out!

There are some seriously difficult fights to call the winner of, but I feel very good about how I have structured my 2 GPP lineups, and my one Cash lineup at the bottom of this preview. Take a look at the detailed write-up of every fight, and feel free to create your own lineups based on these previews. There are many different ways that you can go with your lineups and still be in a competitive position.

As usual, I’ll be in the forums answering any questions that you have on your lineups. I’ll also be live Tweeting throughout the event, dropping knowledge on you when you least expect it! I’ll also be posting my bets on Twitter before the fights, giving you some free bets to pad your pocketbook! I’ll also be posting some info on Twitter Saturday night on how you can obtain my actual bets for the rest of 2017 without doing anything! More to come!

Please follow me during the event on Twitter @TJ_Scott_MMA 

Undercard

Snapshot:

27-year-old kickboxer, Karl Roberson, is making his UFC debut after a successful kickboxing career and starting his professional MMA career with 5 straight wins. Darren Stewart brings his game to the US from across the pond, and he comes in as a +176 dog with a $7,400 DK salary. As you know, “the hunt” is a critical process in putting together killer lineups and putting money in the bank. Every UFC card it is our goal to “hunt” down those “Live Underdogs” that have a chance at winning, and racking up some seriously unexpected points for our GPP lineups. From a Cash perspective a crazy Live Dog doesn’t matter as much as in GPP’s, but they are still nice to have.

Every card there are anywhere from zero to 5 “Live Dogs” on the card, and ultimately, we will want to give ourselves the best chance by gambling, and rostering the Liveliest of Dogs! I don’t think Stewart is one of those few “Live dogs” on this card, but he does have a style that could grind Roberson into a boring decision loss. It won’t be a top scorer in our LU’s, but a win at $7,400 is nice in itself. Stewart will want to take this one to the ground and GNP the American striker. One issue that Stewart needs to keep an eye  on is his cardio though, as he’s proven to be unprepared from a cardio perspective - most likely a result of not training with the best coaches and camps in the world here in the US.

Roberson is a high level striker, being a combatant in many pro Kickboxing bouts with some of the best on the planet. You can be sure that Roberson will have a BIG advantage on the feet over Stewart. The real question becomes; can Roberson stay light on his feet, circle out of trouble and away from the cage, and stuff any takedowns that Stewart may throw at him? If Roberson can keep Stewart at bay, then he’ll eventually put his weak-ass cardio on blast, and it will turn into Roberson picking Stewart apart on the feet, and eventually securing a merciless 2nd round TKO. My numbers also have Roberson as a top 5 DFS play, and this algo takes into account, previous victories (methods as well), volume, odds, DK Salary, chin (opponent as well), Fight IQ, etc...

I like Roberson a lot, but his $8,800 is pretty steep, and doesn’t present any value for us whatsoever. His -115 Inside the Distance prop is 3rd best on the card, and he could easily throw up 100+ DK points if he finishes the fight late in the 1st round after Stewart starts to tire. If it goes into the 2nd round, then it becomes difficult for Roberson to pay off his $8,800 salary. I also don’t see much value in his line of -220, but I do have a heavy lean on <2.5 rounds on this fight, as Stewart’s cardio, combined with Roberson’s legit striking make it likely that Roberson will end this one within 2 rounds. The only way it doesn’t end within the 1st 2 rounds is if Stewart is able to get Roberson to the ground and grind out a victory on top, but I don’t think refs are going to let those type of fights to happen in today’s modern MMA ruleset - which makes <2.5 rounds at -135 a great bet! Get it while you can!

PICK: Roberson, TKO, Late 1st rd                                             

Cash Game: Roberson (8.5/10): I like his odds of winning, and he has a pretty high ceiling. I am also banking on Stewart having a shitty gas tank!

GPP: Roberson (7.5/10): I like his ceiling, but his salary is restrictive, and Stewart could make this a gross lay N pray affair.

Jake Collier vs. Marcel Fortuna…...meh. That’s about how I feel about this fight. It does nothing for me. It’s like watching a soft core porno, or drinking 10 O’Douls. Just don’t get it. Collier shouldn’t be in the UFC. He’s mediocre at best, and is pretty unathletic. He has balls, I’ll give him that, but I just don’t see him being much more than a journeyman in the UFC. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s given his walking papers from the UFC if he loses this one.

Fortuna was riding high after knocking out Anthony “Glass Jaw” Hamilton back in February, but he lost a lackluster decision to Jordan Johnson after he played a counter-striking game that often doesn’t play well in the judge’s eyes if it goes to a decision, and that’s exactly what it did. Fortuna is much more talented than Johnson, but he played an overly cautious game that proved to be a poorly crafted game plan. Hopefully that was originated by his coaches, and not in his own brain, as it still gives him hope to be an impactful fighter at 205. He has solid cardio, is built like a solid 205er, has a very good ground game, and has shown surprisingly improved, heavy-handed striking in his last few fights.

If Fortuna could let his hands fly, and took a few chances, then I think he’d find himself putting Collier in trouble within the first few minutes, and after seeing Collier’s questionable chin for many years, I’m convinced that he will not bounce back from being rocked, and then pursued aggressively by his foe. The only way that he’d survive this situation is if he landed a hail mary haymaker while retreating, and that’s a long shot.

I like Fortuna in this matchup (he is a -239 favorite, and has an $8,600 salary), but he hasn’t proven to us that he is ready to be DK #1 lineup ready. I’ll have some exposure, as he has a good shot of racking up 95+ points, but this could also be a snooze fest if Collier can get the fight to the ground, or if Fortuna fights a slower paced fight like he has shown to do in previous fights. It’s a risk, but I think both will be low owned, so you could pick up some ground on the competition by rostering the winner of this fight. Cash games are also a risk. I just don’t like Forunta’s salary with his limited upside, and significant downside. Play at your own risk.

 PICK: Fortuna, TKO, 2nd                           

Cash Game: Fortuna (7/10): Not a big play for me, but rosterable.

GPP: Fortuna (7.5/10): I am betting moreso on Collier’s weak chin, but Fortuna’s salary sucks, and he has a lot of question marks.

          Collier (7/10): He may be a contrarian play for me, as I could see him pulling out a scummy win here. Collier is a grinder with heart, and these type of guys can pull out W’s from their ass. I’ll have a small exposure to him in my GPP’s.

Here’s an interesting fight. The tale of two fighters on two different trajectories. McGee has been around the block! He has 24 pro MMA fights under his belt, and has proven to be one of the toughest guys in the sport, being able to weather almost any storm from all comers. Strickland on the other hand is a physical specimen who has been put in this spot by the UFC to earn a victory. He will be around for a while, as he’s only 26 years old, while McGee is on the downside of his career, and most likely won’t fight past 2018.

Strickland always looks like the guy who will conquer the world, but when you watch him fight, and you take a look at his stats, he is very unappealing from a DFS perspective. Both of these guys have a high percentage of their fights go to decisions (McGee = 54%, Strickland = 40%), and neither one has a very high work rate, so as you can imagine, not one that we should be targeting for our LU’s. Let’s keep this one short and sweet and move on to the next.

Court McGee’s style makes it very difficult to back any fighter that he’s taking on. It’s likely that he’ll eat their best shots and got to a decision. With Strickland carrying an $8,700 salary, there just isn’t any value whatsoever to make rostering either of these guys a good decision.

PICK: Strickland, Decision, Unanimous              

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: N/A

The first women’s fight of the night is one that could steal the show and be crowned “Fight of the Night”! Angela Hill is an entertaining Muay Thai based striker who some compare to a fine wine, as she continues to get better with age! Hill comes in as an almost 2 to 1 favorite (-197) with a hefty $9,000 price tag! On the flip side, Ansaroff, who trains out of American Top Team, has been fairly inactive over the last 4 years, with only 4 fights during that timespan.

This should be a standup battle that is entertaining for all! We typically don’t love “standup wars” when it comes to DraftKings and rostering those fighters, but with the lighter female weight classes, you have such a high output that you could have a fighter landing 100+ significant strikes during a fight, and if they get a few takedowns, and win a decision, then you’re looking at about a 100 point night! Not bad for a decision victory!

When analyzing this fight specifically from a DraftKings perspective, I think this is one that we should take a good hard look at! Like I said at the beginning, finding those “Live Dogs” is crucial to putting together a winning GPP lineup, and goes a long way towards sweeping Cash games as well! This is a fight where I think we have a “Live Dog”!

Ansaroff is a competitor, and she trains at one of the best gyms in the world (ATT)! Did I mention that she is engaged to Amanda Nunes?! She lives with greatness, and if you don’t think that doesn’t rub off on someone, then you are greatly mistaken. At $7,200 I think this is a great value for us in all formats! Event if Ansaroff doesn’t win, I don’t think that Hill will be able to knock her out, and it will be a back and forth battle that is won on the judges scorecards. In this scenario I foresee Ansaroff racking up some points with a high-volume striking onslaught! This is one to gamble on, as I think Ansaroff has the tools to win this one outright! We are also getting some serious value here, as I think her $7,200 salary should be closer to $7,900. Let’s take advantage of it in all formats and save some cap space!

PICK: Ansaroff, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: Ansaroff (7.5/10): She has a much better chance at victory than the odds and salary say. I’ll take that and save some cap space to roster some big dogs down the line!

GPP: Ansaroff (9/10): She has a good chance at winning, and her salary is stupid affordable! It may go to a decision, but if you can eak out a victory with a $7,200 fighter, then your lineup is doing just fine! 

The 5th fight of the night might be the most anticipated fight on the card! “Sugar” Sage Northcutt (-174, $8,500) returns to the UFC cage after almost a year off due to nursing some injuries. Northcutt has been known to jump around training camps throughout the early part of his UFC career. He now finds himself training with one of the top camps in the game at Uriah Faber’s Team Alpha Male.

Northcutt has quickly been exposed as someone who has little to no ground game whatsoever! His standup is next level, as he has a Karate based striking game that has been refined throughout his childhood, and has been a legit prodigy coming up through the amatuer ranks, and falling nicely into Dana White’s lap on his reality show that found him signing a multi fight deal with the top organization in the world when he was 18 years old! Many people  felt that he was given an opportunity that he didn’t deserve, and many people said “I told you so” after falling to Bryan Barberena and Mickey Gall by submission, and looking like a fish out of water in the process. Rumors of Northcutt’s dad being an overbearing, controlling father who, had his hands in everything that Sage was involved in, especially his MMA career. This often made it difficult for Northcutt to fit into a traditional MMA camp. Combine his father’s controlling mentality with the fact that Sage was only a teenager, and many fellow UFC combatants didn’t think that he earned his shot at the sport’s biggest stage through the traditional means, i.e. grinding it out through the amatuer ranks and on the regional circuit. This created an absurd amount of pressure on a 18 - 19 year old kid, and it’s inevitable that his lack of ground experience would have gotten exposed at the UFC level, and that’s exactly what happened.

Quinones is a mystery in his own right, as he only has one UFC fight under his belt, while Northcutt already has 5 UFC fights but was 11 years younger than Quinones! Quinones has the same record as Northcutt at 8 wins and 2 loses, while 5 of his wins have come by way of knockout. He most recently lost to the extremely gritty Jared Gordon back in June late in the 2nd round to strikes. Quinones has solid standup, but I don’t think he is on the same level as Sage is. Where you have to assume that Quinones does have an advantage in this fight is on the ground, but it has been a while since we’ve seen Northcutt, so he may have improved on the ground since last time we’ve seen him, but who knows how much the injuries have limited his training.

Sage is young, and is very coachable, so I think we’ll see him improve by leaps and bounds in the BJJ department over the next few years, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s already begun to happen, and his improvement will be on display in this fight. The kid is a very good athlete who trains incredibly hard. Mix in his mental makeup, and determination to be the best in the world, which has been his goal for decades!

From a DFS perspective, this one is very interesting, and I could see this one going either way. I think that Northcutt’s line is a little inflated due to his notoriety, and the hype that the UFC has built-up around him during the early part of his career. This also is reflected in the DK salary of $8,500. I think Sage should be priced closer to even money, putting him around $8,200, while his betting lines should be closer to even money, and not at -174. With that being said, I do see some value in Quinones, as you have to assume that if he gets this one to the ground that he can have his way and lock up a submission victory within the 1st frame, and putting up 100+ points with a salary of only $7,700! This would be a huge win for our GPP LU’s!

I could also see Sage stuffing any type of TD attempt, and out-classing Quinones on the feet with his flashy, powerful striking game. It really could go either way, and I don’t have a confident read either way on this one, but gun to my head, I think Sage keeps the fight standing, shows his improved Fight IQ and TD defense, and picks Quinones a part on the feet before swarming in and getting a late 1st round TKO stoppage, and tacking up 110+ points. Only time will tell, so play cautiously, and have some exposure to both of these guys in your GPP LU’s, and if you’re only building 5 LU’s, then maybe have 2-3 with Sage, and 1 or so with Quinones. If Quinones does hit, I think it will be quick, and you’ll have more points than just the 1st round stoppage victory. You’ll get a few strikes, a TD, an advance or two, and next thing you know you’re over 100 points, and loving life with only a $7,700 salary! Quinones is one of my few Live Dogs on the card, so he’ll be in some of my LU’s where I need to save some cap space to roster my other favorite targets.                                                                                           

PICK: Northcutt, TKO, 1st

Cash Game: Northcutt (5.5/10): I don’t love this play, as I’m not very confident that he can pull off a victory. Tread lightly.

GPP: Northcutt (7.5/10): Victory is in question, but if he does win, it will be a 100+ DK point showing, and a 1st round stoppage.

          Quinones (8/10): Here’s a Live Dog for ya! Wish he was a little cheaper, but he’ll still save us some cap space, and also give us a good shot at victory as a dog within our GPP lineups.

TUF 23 winner, Tatiana Suarez, is an incredible chain wrestler who has medaled in the Wolrd Wrestling Championships in both ‘08 and ‘10, and most recently she has worked on perfecting her MMA craft, compiling a 4-0 pro MMA record. The 26 year old California native has proven to be incredibly dangerous on the ground with her submission game. This doesn’t sound all too concerning, but when you combine her submission game with her elite level wrestling, then you have a weapon who can dictate where the fight takes place, and has the tools to finish the fight once on the ground. Many wrestlers can get the fight to the ground, but they can’t advance position and end the fight with a slick submission game. This makes Suarez a rare breed at the young MMA age of 26!

Suarez has a -155 Inside the DIstance prop, which is pretty solid, but DraftKings is not giving us much value here, pricing the -280 favorite at $9,200, making her a high end piece within your LU’s that you’ll need to focus on and make sure she pays back that salary in points. The one big question mark that hangs over Suarez is the fact that she hasn’t fought in about a year and a half due to injuries. Will ring rust play a factor here? Possibly, but I think the factors involved in this one point to a dominating win by Suarez, possibly racking up 120+ points.

Pereira is not slouch though, bringing a 13-0 record, while going 2-0 in the UFC. Pereira’s big issue in this one is her size. She is undersized for this weight class, and when you factor in that Suarez is big for the division, and holds a 5 inch height advantage, and a 4 inch reach advantage. When Pereira’s only path to victory is out striking Suarez, and most likely a decision victory, then the size advantage becomes a big factor here. The Brazilian will not have the reach to pick apart Suarez on the feet, and in order to effectively strike, Pereira will need to enter the pocket, which means one of two things: 1) she gets picked apart on the feet by an improving striking game that Suarez will display, and will eventually clinch, and get ragdolled by the much bigger American, and will eat plenty of elbows and knees while locked in a Muay Thai clinch, or will get taken down from said Muay Thai clinch, or (2) Pereira enters the pocket looking to strike only to find Suarez ducking punches, locking up a double leg, and suarez finding herself on top of Pereira exactly where she didn’t want to find herself with the much bigger Suarez - on her back.

This one ends with either vicious ground and pound being the avenue which leads Suarez to an impressive TKO stoppage in the 1st or 2nd round, or Suarez locking up a submission after softening up the Brazilian with heavy punches and elbows from the top. Either way, I see Suarez getting in some strikes on the feet before getting the takedown, and eventually advancing a few times on the ground, getting in some GNP, and eventually locking up a submission. If this sequence I explain here takes most of the 1st round to play out, and Suarez locks up the submission victory close to the end of the 1st round, then you could be looking at a 120 - 140 point night for Suarez, making her one of the top scorers on the card (if not THE top scorer). My DFS algorithm has Suarez as the #2 ranked fighter on the card, sitting only behind Junior Albini, which I tend to agree with!

I really like Suarez in all formats here. Yes, Pereira is undefeated, but like many Brazilians on the regional scene, she hasn’t fought very tough competition, especially someone with the wrestling pedigree of Suarez, or the huge size and strength advantage that Suarez will bring to the cage on Saturday night! All of these factors lead me to Suarez as one of the best DFS plays on the card Saturday night!

PICK: Suarez, Sub, 1st       

Cash Game: Suarez (9/10): I like her odds of winning, and her ceiling is very high, as is her floor - exactly what we want in a $9,200 Cash gamer.

GPP: Suarez (9.5/10): I think this is my most confident play of the night. Suarez has a perfect game for the DK scoring system - getting TD’s, advancing, and locking up a submission victory, all while landing SS throughout this process, staying very active. This style, combined with a huge size advantage give me a lot of confidence in this one. The only question mark here is; will there be ring rust without Suarez fighting in a year and a half? Nahhh, I don’t think so.

The final fight on the undercard should be a barn burner! John Dodson is priced at $8,300 taking on Marlon Moraes who has a price tag of $7,900, and it is basically a coin flip from a Vegas perspective as well. This will be a great fight to watch unfold in front of us Saturday night, but it isn’t one that I’ll have much invested in from a DFS perspective, so I’ll keep this one quick, as many of the other fight previews on this one have been rather lengthy. Not saying this is a bad thing (it’s actually a good thing, meaning I have a good understanding of what will unfold, and I like it from  DFS perspective).

This will mostly take place on the feet, and could be a high output striking affair, but I don’t think there will be many TD’s, and not much groundwork either, reducing the ceiling for both of these warriors. For their weight class, neither of these guys is overly active on the feet, and this is where I see this one playing out. There may be a GPP play in Dodson, as he is known for his heavy hands, and if he can land one of those haymakers, then he will be a solid DK scorer, and will out earn his $8,300 salary. If he doesn’t get the KO, then I find it hard for him to pay back the $8,300 with his style, and likelihood of winning a decision through striking. I’d avoid, and if anything, have a slight lean on Dodson from a DFS GPP perspective. I will most likely have a play on Dodson at about even money, as I have a lot of confidence in him winning a decision against a fighter who has a lot of question marks surrounding him due to his questionable level of talent that he fought in WSOF before making the jump over to the “Big Leagues”!

PICK: Dodson, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: Dodson (7/10): You need a KO. A decision won’t do us any good here. Better options with higher upside can be found elsewhere on the card.

Main Card

Oh man! This one is worth the price of admission alone, and could probably sell a PPV on its own! Joe Lauzon (+115, $8,100) is 14 - 10 in the UFC over the past 11 years, while his opponent, Clay Guida (-125, $8,100), is 13 - 11 in the UFC over the last 11 years aslo. What’s interesting is that these two UFC vets made their UFC debuts within 3 weeks of each other back in 2006, and since then these crazy fucks have seen themselves throwing haymakers in the middle of the cage in 48 UFC fights between the two of them! That’s an insane number of fights, and I can assure you that these two guys have been two of the most exciting fighters to watch in the entire organization over the course of those 48 fights under the UFC banner!

This is a really tough one to call, as both of these guys are grinders who like to be involved in incredibly exciting fights. Exciting fights are great to watch, but they aren’t great to handicap, and to rely on when the fighters in said fight are in your DK lineups. I can see this one playing out a few different ways.

• Lauzon lands some big shots, putting Guida on roller skates, looking for something to grab a hold of in order to survive, and pull himself out of the deep waters. Eventually Lauzon swarms his pray, locking up a submission and a impressive 1st round stoppage of a very tough 155 pounder.
• Guida weathers an aggressive 1st round that Lauzon notoriously leads with. If Guida can get into the 2nd round, then you’ll see Lauzon’s gas tank start to come into play. His punches will slow and become telegraphed. His kicks will become non-existent, and he’ll be more susceptible to getting clipped and stopped.

Joe Lauzon is one of my favorite fighters of all time, but I think the wars that he has been involved in throughout his career are starting to catch up with him. His gas tank has become more of an issue over the past few years, and as you know, if you don’t have a solid cardio game in the 155 pound division, you won’t last long, and you’ll get eaten alive! Lauzon has seemed to hit the downside of his career quicker than I expected, and I think this will be another one that will make you start to question whether the end is closer than we’d like to admit when it comes to Lauzon’s UFC career.

I think Guida wins a decision victory here after losing the 1st round. Guida doesn’t typically rack up a ton of DK points when he wins his decisions, but with Lauzon’s gas tank being an issue, it could make the takedowns, advances, and strikes a lot easier to come by for Guida, and if he can compile all of these types of points, then I think he’ll have a legit chance of racking up 90+ points in a decision victory - surely enough points to pay off his mid-tier salary of $8,100! I think Guida will be under owned too, as many will remember his low scoring decision victories in the past, but I am banking on Lauzon’s cardio to continue to decline like it has over the past few years. Only time will tell!

PICK: Guida, Decision, Split

Cash Game: Guida (7/10): Victory isn’t a guarantee here, and this tempers his ranking. He is a nice salary saver, but he is risky.

GPP: Guida (7.5/10): I’m hoping Guida flies under the radar, which will only increase his GPP value. If he can use Lauzon’s weak cardio to his advantage, repeatedly take him down, GNP him in the process, advance positions on the ground, and eventually get a TKO stoppage, then we’re looking at a damn fine night! It’s a gamble, but low ownership and this type of fight would be the best case scenario!

          Lauzon (6.5/10): I will have some exposure to JL as well, but not as much as Guida. Lauzon’s been my boy since his debut, and I’m a ride or die bitch…...I mean……..what?

We’ll keep this one quick, as I don’t trust Assuncao, especially at $9,300! I don’t think he’ll be able to pay off this high salary, and at this pricing level, you really need to have confidence in your top tier fighters being able to get 100+ points for your LU’s.

If there is any play that I’ll possibly be considering here, it is Lopez, and hoping that he can stop Assuncao inside the distance (although that’s a long shot at +904 odds). I don’t have confidence in this, but at a $6,900 price tag, it’s worth taking a flyer on Lopez in a few lineups, as he’ll afford you the ability to get creative with your LU’s and roster almost anyone that you want that’s in the top tier. I think ultimately this is a slower paced fight that is a low-scoring affair. Both these guys will be low owned, but Lopez may be a sneaky play, and if he surprises us with a 1st or 2nd round stoppage of the Brazilian, who’s a heavy favorite, then we’ll be sitting pretty, and Lopez will be in many winning GPP LU’s.

PICK: Assuncao, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: Lopez (6.5/10): A contrarian play that could be the sleeper on the card, especially with his stupid low salary.

Oh man, what a fight to handicap! Both of these guys are super “chinny”, and could get knocked out if the wind was gusting fast enough! Both guys are smart enough to not put themselves in a position where they may get  knocked out, and this could mean a cautious striking battle that often means a low-scoring DFS affair that ends in a decision. This scares me, as this is a very likely scenario of how this fight plays out. If these guys were fighting against different opponents, then their opponents would both be on my radar, as I like to roster fighters that are taking on fighters who have been KO’ed a lot in their career, and have proven to have weak chins (or known as chinny, as we like to say now), which both of these guys have done for us with their past performances.

I’ll have a little exposure to Marquardt in some GPP LU’s, as I don’t think that he should be a +255 underdog, or be priced at $7,100. Anything can happen in a MMA fight with two chinny fighters squaring off, so I’ll look to save some serious salary space with Marquardt in a few GPP LU’s, as he could very well land a shot that puts the Brazilian away, and if that happens, then you’re sitting pretty with 85+ points earned, and very little salary space taken up. It’s a risk, but it’s the only risk that I’d look to play in this one. Ferreira is not someone who I’d put a lot of faith in to payoff his $9,100. It’s Marquardt or nuthin, but not a high percentage of GPP LU’s will see Nate “The Great” in them.

PICK: Marquardt, Decision, Split (or early KO)

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: Marquardt (7/10): A big roll of the dice here, but with Marquardt’s low salary, and potential for a stoppage, I think you need to take a risk here with a few of your GPP LU’s.    

Snapshot:

In one of the “feel good” MMA stories of the year, Junior Albini (-315, $8,900), made his UFC debut back in July, KO’ing Timothy Johnson in the 1st round on his way towards earning a $60k KO of the Night bonus from the UFC in one of the more emotional situations you’ll experience in the cage this year. I’d say it was a little dusty in the room while watching his debut victory. After his win and Albini learned that he’d be taking home an additional $60,000, he admitted that his UFC debut was his first pro MMA fight where he was actually paid! On the regional scene, especially outside of the US, you’ll often find shady characters running small MMA promotions, often bouncing fighter checks, or not paying them at all, so this is not surprising hearing that Albini hadn’t been paid in any of his previous pro MMA fights on the regional scene.

What made the situation even more emotional is that he was tearful in the cage once learning of his $60,000 bonus because he would now be able to afford to buy his 2 year old daughter some real toys to play with, as he didn’t have the money to buy her anything previously. Having a 2 year old daughter myself really made this one hit home for me! Here’s a great story of a guy working his ass off, overcoming scrupulous promoters on the regional circuit who got away without paying him, and now eventually paying his dues, and earning a $60,000 bonus on top if his show and win purses! Just a great story that should bring a tear to everyone’s eye!

I love Albini in this position, and I think with Karma on his side, this could be a seriously impressive DK outing for the 26 year old who has the best Inside the Distance prop of -166! He also has a great Rank Value of -3, as he has the 3rd best betting line at -315 and only the 6th highest DK salary at $8,900. This gives us a -3 Rank Value that we’ll definitely take advantage of! I like Albini in all formats, and I think he’ll get the stoppage in the 1st round here, as Andre Arlovski and his chin have left the competitive ranks of the UFC’s Heavyweight division a few years ago, and I don’t see them returning to their old form any time soon. If Arlovski is KO’ed again ,which I think he will be, then Dana White should force him to retire, as he has been knocked out enough for 3 fighters careers! Hopefully Arolski will leave his gloves in the cage if this one ends the way that I think it will end - with the future UFC Hall of Famer unconscious on the canvas. My algorithm has Albini as the #1 DFS play on the card, and I like him even more when he is the #1 DFS rank, and his salary is <$9k!

PICK: Albini, KO, 1st

Cash Game: Albini (8.5/10): I like his ceiling here, but there is a chance that Arlovski lands a haymaker like he used to, putting an end to Albini’s night, but I think Albini has too much momentum, and is too young, quick, and powerful for Arlovski to handle. Vegas agrees, and I think Albini’s ownership level will agree too.

GPP: Albini (9/10): Awesome ceiling, and a reasonable salary. You just need to weather Arlovski’s right hand, and hope to put one on AA’s chin in the 1st.

          Arlovski (6.5/10): This is strictly a contrarian play, but isn’t too far out there, as Arlovski is one of the nest strikers to ever step foot in the Octagon, but he hasn’t been “elite” in 7+ years. Low salary, and high ceiling looks good for a GPP LU or two!

Snapshot:

The co-main event of the evening pits 2 UFC legends against each other, as Matt Brown ($9,400, -346) takes on Diego Sanchez ($6,800, +268) in this Welterweight bout. Matt Brown has already declared this will be his last fight, and he will retire at the conclusion of this fight. In all honesty, Sanchez should also think about retiring, as he is way past his prime, and has been through some serious wars in his 26 UFC fights! He has been KO’ed in 2 of his last 3 fights, where in the prior 10 UFC fights he had gone to a decision, and he had never been KO’ed. I think this is a perfect example of a fighter’s chin catching up with him, and being more susceptible to getting caught. His hand speed has diminished drastically in recent years, and his ability to rally when caught in a tough position, and fighting back with fast, heavy strikes of his own has passed him by.

It’s tough to watch a fighter continue to battle in the cage without knowing that there time has past them by, and they should be hanging them up. Sanchez is moving up from Lightweight (155) to take on the ultra aggressive, heavy-handed Brown in his 24th and last UFC fight! I would never recommend a fighter like Diego Sanchez, who’s been in an incredible number of wars in his day, moving up a weight class at this point in his career. It’s just too dangerous, and unnecessary. My assumption is that he doesn’t want to live the lifestyle of a 155 pound fighter walking around at 180 pounds, and doesn’t want to cut the weight any more. I get it, but he is putting his mental health at stake when that’s not what he should be doing at the tail end of his career.

I think that Brown will have his way with Sanchez, as his hands are quicker, heavier, and more precise. This is a perfect “parting gift” from the UFC, and this shouldn’t surprise you. The UFC is giving Brown a fighter on a silver platter that will best showcase Brown’s high-level striking, and will leave his fans with a lasting impression of what “The Immortal” did best in the cage - deliver a high-paced striking game that pressures his opponent into a position that makes them uncomfortable, and causes them to make bad decisions, ultimately getting them knocked out! Brown’s Muay Thai clinch is a place that Diego does not want to be, and I think Diego’s height will be an issue for him against a hell of a Muay Thai practitioner like Brown! I wouldn’t be surprised if a Muay Thai knee to the head starts the flurry that eventually ends Sanchez’s night, and concludes Brown’s stellar MMA career!

PICK: Brown, TKO, 1st

Cash Game: Brown (9/10): I love his odds of victory here, and his ceiling is pretty damn high as well. You’ll have to pay for his points, but with some of the other Live Dogs that we’re interested in, you should be able to fit him in.

GPP: Brown (9/10): I like Brown in GPP’s too, as he will get a stoppage against a very chinny Diego Sanchez.

Snapshot:

On to the main event of the evening, which has Dustin Poirier ($8,000, -105) taking on Anthony Pettis ($8,200, -105). This is a very difficult one to call, and I could see it going either way. This is the toughest fight to call, as either fighter has a shot at victory, in many different ways. The coin flip odds are accurate in my opinion, as are the salaries that DK has these two priced at.

My algorithm has Poirier with a much wider gap over Pettis than what the Vegas odds and DK salaries show. I have been waffling back and forth on this fight all week, and I’ll probably change my mind at least two more times before the start of the fight.

Looking at some previous fight tape, I don’t love how Poirier has looked recently, as he has almost looked for a way out of fights where he is getting challenged, and this isn’t a good sign. Does he still have the fire to compete at this level? Does he still have the killer instinct to put away a fighter who’s in trouble, or is he fine with riding out a pace that won’t get him hurt, and he’ll win a decision in the judges’ eyes? Not sure, but this fight will answer many of these questions!

I’ll have exposure to both these guys, as it is a 5 round fight that has the potential to score some points, but both could also play a conservative style that puts them in a position to win a decision without putting themselves in danger. I think that Pettis has lost the fire to be “elite”, and he has started to question the power that he posses in his strikes, especially at Lightweight. He has also looked less willing to fight through adversity when put in difficult positions by his opponent from strikes. It seems as though he has accepted he has been beat, and is willing to take the L and move on to the next war, so long as the money keeps coming! I just don’t think he has the heart to climb the mountain again, and is going through the motions to some degree. Unfortunately, I’ve seen Poirier fight with a similar demeanor in recent fights as well, which scares me, but I think that Poirier is bigger, with heavier hands, and the ability to dictate where this fight takes place, which most likely means that he can take Pettis’ best asset away from him; his kicking. If he can do that, then he will have gone a long way to putting Pettis in a box, and limiting his weapons significantly!

PICK: Poirier, TKO, 3rd      

Cash Game: Poirier (7/10): Tough one to focus on from a Cash perspective, as we are looking for wins in our Cash LU’s, and this one is not a lock by any means! It’s a very tough fight to call, but will be entertaining as hell to watch! 

GPP: Poirier (8/10): I like the mid-tier here, and I think Pettis is broken mentally, which should give Poirier an opportunity to end this one inside the distance and rack up some nice DFS points!            

          Pettis (6.5/10): I’ll have a small exposure to Pettis as well, but I don’t have any confidence in his mental state over the last few months.     

Optimal Lineups

Cash 1

GPP 1

GPP 2