CS:GO DFS Playbook – BLAST Premiere Global Final 2020 (2-Matches)
Astralis (Ranked 1st in World) @ Evil Geniuses (Ranked 18th in World)
Betting Odds: Astralis -500/Evil Geniuses +330
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +135/Under -180
*This is a best of three upper bracket quarter-final match for the BLAST Premiere Event
*It is important to note that these teams haven’t played in well over a month, so don’t be shocked to see dogs bark. Evil Geniuses haven’t played a Tier-1 event since November 21st, as they took off quite a bit longer for the Holiday season than most.
*Before Astralis broke for the Holidays, they reeled off three-straight match wins and had won four of their prior four matches played with their only loss being an 0-2 result to BIG. EG had ended with a loss to Chaos 1-2 before their break but had won two-straight prior to that loss over Triumph and Rebirth, both sweeps.
*Astralis Over the Last Month of Play (6 Maps): device 1.32 Rating, dupreeh 1.06, Magisk 1.06, Xyp9x 1.05, gla1ve 0.98.
*Evil Geniuses Over the Last Three Months of Play (12 Maps): Ethan 1.18 Rating, Tarik 1.16, Brehze 1.06, Stanislaw 1.03, CeRq 1.03.
H2H Data:
*These two teams played zero times in the year of 2020, but had played six matches in 2019, including one Grand Final at the ESL One New York 2019 Event. Looking at the While EG was named EG and not NRG (past three matches) EG had taken two of the three matches played, including the Grand Final win.
*EG vs Astralis (16 Maps): Brehze +78 K-D Diff, 1.28 K-D, 1.20 Rating. CeRq +57 K-D Diff, 1.20 K-D, 1.13 Rating.
*Astralis vs EG (9 Maps): device +16 K-D Diff, 1.11 K-D, 1.07 Rating. Dupreeh +7 K-D Diff, 1.04 K-D, 1.05 Rating.
MAPS:
*The two first maps to be banned in this match should include Mirage and Vertigo. Inferno has shown up in the last four matches-straight while Dust2, Nuke, and Overpass also were played. I think we can pencil in Inferno. I also think Evil Geniuses could likely go with Dust2, as it has been a map they have beat Astralis on and it not exactly one of Astralis’ favorite maps to play.
*Evil Geniuses on Dust2 (4 Maps): Brehze 1.18 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.07 IMP, 78.8 ADR. Tarik 1.15, Ethan 1.13, CeRq 1.12, Stanislaw 0.87. On Inferno (17 Maps): Brehze 1.26 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.25 IMP, 79.7 ADR. Ethan 1.25, Tarik 1.19, CeRq 1.15, Stanislaw 1.08.
Astralis on Inferno (19 Maps): device 1.27 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.27 IMP, 89.3 ADR. Magisk 1.13, dupreeh 1.12, Xyp9x 1.04, gla1ve 1.00. On Dust2 (16 Maps): device 1.20 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.27 IMP, 81.2 ADR. Dupreeh 1.14, Xyp9x 1.07, gla1ve 1.04, Magisk 1.03.
ANALYSIS: Evil Geniuses really were not playing like they were all fully focused before their break, and maybe, just maybe the break is what they needed to get re-focused and ready to play competitively once again. We know how good Astralis is, and this is simply why they are ranked #1 in the World. EG is the big dog in this match, however, if the Head-to-Head data can be factored in, EG had their number in 2019. This should be an interesting match.
G2 (Ranked 9th in World) @ FURIA (Ranked 7th in World)
Betting Odds: G2 -315/FURIA +225
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +110/Under -150
*This is a best of three upper-bracket quarter-final match for the BLAST Premiere Event.
*NOTE: FURIA no longer has HEN1 on the roster as he stepped away from CS after the break. They now have honda as a replacement.
*Neither of these teams were in great, or good even, form before the break as G2 had only won one match in their prior played, and that win just so happened to have come against FURA 2-1. FURIA had only won two of their recent five matches played and their wins were over Heroic 2-1 and OG 2-1.
*G2 Over the Last Three Months of Play (46 Maps): NiKo 1.19 Rating, huNter 1.06, KennyS 1.03, AmaNEk 0.98, nexa 0.97.
*FURA Over the Last Three Months of Play (38 Maps): yuurih 1.15 Rating, KSCERATO 1.11, VINI 0.98, arT 0.97. (honda (5 Maps) 1.00 Rating – This is the only stats he has for all time, just 5 maps)
H2H Data:
*These two teams have played three matches in 2020 with G2 winning two of the three played. Sweeping the latter of the three matches 2-0, FURIA won the second to latest 2-1, and finally the most recent G2 in a 2-1 result. Worth noting their last two matches played did go three maps.
*G2 vs FURIA (8 Maps): NiKo +16 K-D Diff, 1.11 K-D, 1.19 Rating. huNter +1 K-D Diff, 1.01 K-D, 1.11 Rating. AmaNEk (5 Maps): +26 K-D Diff, 1.31 K-D, 1.14 Rating.
*FURIA vs G2 (8 Maps): yuurih +23 K-D Diff, 1.17 K-D, 1.11 Rating.
MAPS:
*The first two ban maps for this match should include Dust2 for FURIA, and Overpass for G2. Mirage has shown up in all three matches while Inferno has twice and Nuke once. I highly believe we see Mirage and Inferno here once again.
*G2 on Mirage (7 Maps): NiKo 1.20 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.36 IMP, 87.3 ADR. KennyS 1.13, huNter 1.10, nexa 1.07, AmaNEk 0.94. On Inferno (8 Maps): NiKo 1.11 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.20 IMP, 84.5 ADR. KennyS 0.99, nexa 0.94, AmaNEk 0.89, huNter 0.87.
*FURIA on Inferno (11 Maps): yuurih 1.22 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.19 IMP, 80.9 ADR. VINI 1.18, KSCERATO 1.07, arT 0.95. On Mirage (9 Maps): KSCERATO 1.13 Rating, 0.69 KPR, 0.99 IMP, 75.2 ADR. Yuurih 1.11, arT 1.00, VINI 0.89. (honda has not played Inferno, and has only played Mirage 2 times with a 1.44 Rating, 0.92 KPR, 1.70 IMP, 86.5 ADR)
ANALYSIS: The chalk in this match will easily be G2, and for good reason. FURIA is playing without HEN1 for the first time in a long time and he was arguably their best player. They still have a strong core with yuurih/KSCERATO and having arT as entry and VINI as support, so honda is taking over the AWP it seems as it was his most used weapon in the 5 maps played. I don’t think G2 will run away with this, and I think this could be quite a good match that may go three maps.
*TOP STACKS: Astralis, G2
*TOP CONTRARIAN STACK: FURIA
*TOP CPT PLAYS: device, NiKo, yuurih, KSCERATO, KennyS, Brehze, dupreeh
*TOP FLEX PLAYS: KSCERATO, Xyp9X, AmaNEk, VINI, CeRq