Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO October 26
Sean Mitchell explores all of the important data for team, individual, and map statistics to bring you the the best player options for Monday's 2-match CS:GO slate!
Today we kick off the BLAST Premier Fall Series 2020 in CS:GO! We have a two match slate on tap, so let’s get to the playbook!
NaVi @ NiP
Betting Odds: NaVi -155/NiP +120
Map Odds: 2.5 Over -105/Under -125
*NiP fell to Heroic in the lower-bracket final of the Dream Hack Open just day two days ago but had a decent run in that event and had been on a mini-win streak beating fnatic, OG, and FaZe before losing to Heroic. NaVi got ousted in the IEM New York Event after falling 0-2 to Virtus.pro and 0-1 so Spirit and have only one two of their last five matches played.
*Over the last month of play for NaVi (26 Maps) – S1mple 1.18 Rating, electronic 1.13 Rating, Perfecto 1.03 Rating, Boombl4 0.98 Rating, flamie 0.95 Rating
*Over the last month of play for NiP (19 Maps) – nawwk 1.09 Rating, REZ 1.08 Rating, hampus 1.01 Rating, Plopski 0.99 Rating, twist 0.97 Rating.
*These two teams have played four matches in 2020, with NaVi winning three of the four, and all four of these matches were dealt by sweeps – NaVi three sweeps to one for NiP (however, the most recent match played was the NiP sweep)
*NaVi vs NiP H2H (8 Maps): S1mple +62 K-D Diff, 1.54 K-D, 1.37 Rating, electronic +41 K-D Diff, 1.31 K-D, 1.32 Rating, flamie +6 K-D Diff, 1.05 K-D, 1.05 Rating.
*NiP vs NaVi H2H (8 Maps): nawwk +9 K-D Diff, 1.07 K-D, 1.04 Rating, Plopski +1 K-D Diff, 1.01 K-D, 1.05 Rating.
*These two have basically alternated four maps in the four matches played: Train, Overpass, Nuke, Mirage. Nuke, Overpass, and Mirage have shown up twice.
*NaVi typical first choice map is Dust2, which is the first ban of NiP. NiP first pick has been Overpass, and the first ban for NaVi is Vertigo. Train has been a popular second choice for NaVi lately after Dust2. I think we likely see NiP continue to go with Overpass, as they do have a slight edge there in success rate lately, and I think we see Nuke for NaVi as it has been a map that they have chosen twice now against NiP and won both and have a decent edge in success rate lately also.
*NiP on Overpass (7 Maps) – REZ 1.10 Rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.07 IMP, 80.4 ADR. Nawwk 1.07 Rating, Plopski 1.06 Rating, hampus 1.02 Rating, 0.94 twist. On Nuke (9 Maps) – REZ 1.14 Rating 0.78 KPR, 1.19 IMP, 78.9 ADR. Nawwk 1.06 Rating, Plopski 1.04 Rating, twist 0.98 Rating, hampus 0.93 Rating.
NaVi on Nuke (12 Maps) – S1mple 1.22 Rating, 0.86 KPR, 1.31 IMP, 84.7 ADR. Electronic 1.08 Rating, Perfecto 0.99 Rating, flamie 0.97 Rating, Boombl4 0.96 Rating. On Overpass (7 Maps) – electronic 1.15 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.31 IMP, 85.6 ADR, S1mple 1.09 Rating, Boombl4 1.03 Rating, Perfercto 0.98 Rating, flamie 0.85 Rating.
Evil Geniuses @ OG
Betting Odds: EG -180/OG +135
Map Odds: 2.5 Over -110/Under -125
*Evil Geniuses haven’t played a match since the 18th of October, so they have had a bit of a break before this match as they finished 3rd in the IEM New York Event. They had won three of their prior four matches, all by the sweep as well. OG finished out the DreamHack Open in 7th place after defeating Sprout in their most recent match in a 2-0 sweep.
*EG over the last month of play (16 Maps): Brehze 1.40 Rating, Ethan 1.24 Rating, CeRq 1.18 Rating, Tarik 1.12 Rating, Stanislaw 1.0 Rating.
*OG over the last month of play (24 Maps): valde 1.14 Rating, ISSAA 1.13 Rating, mantuu 1.09 Rating, Aleksib 1.01 Rating, NBK- 1.00 Rating.
*These two teams have played twice in 2020, both of those matches went the full three-map distance. OG edged out both matches with 2-1 results.
*OG vs EG H2H (6 Maps): mantuu +34 K-D Diff, 1.36 K-D, 1.26 Rating, valde +31 K-D Diff, 1.33 K-D, 1.22 Rating, ISSAA +20 K-D Diff, 1.19 K-D, 1.16 Rating
*EG vs OG H2H (6 Maps): Brehze +1 K-D Diff, no others were positive.
*In the two matches played, not a single map showed up twice. Only two maps EG won were Train and Inferno, while OG won Inferno also, Mirage, Nuke and Dust2.
*The first bans lately have been Mirage for EG and Vertigo for OG. The first picks have been Inferno for both – an OG has a 5-map winning streak there also. Nuke is a map that EG has picked close to 40% lately, but also have a 4-match losing skid on lately. However, they still hold a slight edge in success rate there with 55%>47% for OG.
*I think this is a match that could see some curveball maps, simply because EG has a bit of a wider map pool than most. Their home maps are Inferno and Nuke, but they have also played well on both Dust2 and Train. If it goes accordingly, we should see Nuke and Inferno. The thing is, EG usually like to ban their opponent’s best map, but in this case, Inferno is a good map for both teams. I’m not going to list the individual numbers for maps here simply because these maps are not near as clear-cut to project as most typically are at this is evident by the two matches they have played with not a single map showing up twice. The big thing to note here, EG has been off for over a week, OG has won both prior H2Hs (EG revenge, right?), and OG is fresh off a nice win in their most recent match and have been playing decently well lately.