We have another 4-match Nine to Five 2 main slate on tap for CS:GO DFS for Wednesday. There are two matches that will feature teams that are sitting in this event with 1-1 records at the current moment, and there are also two matches with teams sitting at 2-0 record as well for this event. Let’s jump in.
MATCH 1
ALTERNATE aTTaX (Ranked 34th in World) vs Izako Boars (Ranked 77th in World)
With both of these squads dropping their respective matches on Tuesday, as a result they are now featured in today’s first match between teams sitting with a 1-1 record so far for the Nine to Five 2 Event. ALT aTTaX was dealt a 2-0 reverse sweep today by Tikitakan, while the Boars were also handed a reverse sweep of their own at the hands of Gambit Youngsters. I had mentioned on my Twitter account on Monday night as I spoke about Tuesday’s slate, and mentioned that the match between Tiki and ALT was quite fishy, and that Tiki would be a very contrarian, value team to play and it did indeed turn out that way! However, I do believe at first glance I will be looking at aTTaX in this match, as I don’t really feel that confident in the Boars beating many teams in the near future. Vegas has this conclusion in their vocabulary as well, as ALT aTTaX are listed at -400 on the money line to win this match currently. Both of these teams had swapped wins and losses to their opponents in their last five most recent matches, but it was ALT who had 2-0 swept three of their last five, and it is pretty imminent that we toss out that the Boars have not faced very tough competition lately, and Gambit showed us just how easy it was for them to beat them down on Tuesday. We do not have any prior head-to-head data for this match, so in that case we usually look to see who has been performing the best over the last month or so for each team to gauge some potential top and value plays. For ALT (62 map sample over last month), slaxz- is still the top dog for this team, who also had a pretty sub-par match on Tuesday, so for one look for the bounce-back, and also, he is carrying a 1.18 rating, 0.75 KPR, 0.59 DPR, 1.19 IMP, and 73.9 ADR over this span. Three other teammates have also been playing well above average in kressy at 1.14, stfN at 1.13, and lastly, mirbit at 1.12 Rating over this span. For the Boars (33 map sample) it has been the siuhy (1.04 Rating) and Szejn (1.02 Rating) show as the top two players for this span. Let’s take a gander at some potential projected map picks for these two.
I think the maps in this match could be pretty interesting. The two first ban maps include Nuke and Mirage. However, both teams are choosing Vertigo as their typical first map choice lately, while the next most picked map for the Boars is Nuke, which will be banned by ALT. So, this could play-out a couple ways with a couple scenarios. Really depends on who chooses first map choice, as if it is ALT, it is likely Vertigo, and that would leave the Boars likely going with Overpass in my opinion, and here is why. The next two first map choices for the Boars after Vertigo and Nuke, include Dust2 and Overpass. The problem with Dust2, is that ALT has a 5-map winning streak currently held there while also carrying roughly a 65% success rate there as well over their last 14 attempts. Overpass makes quite a bit more sense here, as it is literally one of the only other maps than Nuke that gives them a slight edge – only in terms of success rate lately, as the Boars have totaled a 57%-win rate there lately over their last seven maps played, while ALT has won just 50% over their last twenty tries. The other scenario? That would involve the Boars getting the first map choice and going with Vertigo also, this would leave ALT likely going with Dust2, that map the Boars likely wouldn’t want to see them on. This would be pretty bad news for the Boars if this scenario is the one to come to fruition in this match. Since we have three potential maps, we can list some top performers for each for these two squads. Starting with ALT aTTaX on their projected map of Vertigo (17 map sample ) it is stfN with the top numbers over this span sitting at 1.27 rating, 0.78 KPR, 0.57 DPR, 1.21 IMP, and 84.3 ADR. Mirbit is literally nipping his heels on this map as well, as he shares a 1.27 Rating, however his KPR is just a smidge lower at 0.75, but DPR also a smidge lower at 0.56. All other options do follow above average here for this squad starting with kressy and slaxz- both sitting at a 1.23 Rating, while Scrunk rounds out the list with a 1.12 of his own. For Overpass (nine map sample) once again stfN leads the team here as well with a 1.23 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 0.62 DPR, 1.23 IMP, and 83.4 ADR. Three others follow him here with mirbit at 1.15, kressy at 1.12, and lastly, slaxz- at 1.11. For Dust2 (seven map sample) slaxz- takes the crown here lately sitting with a 1.25 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 0.59 DPR, 1.29 IMP, and 83.0 ADR. Next, stfN sits at 1.16, kressy at 1.15, and mirbit at 1.13 rounds it out. For the Izako Boars on their projected map choice as well of Vertigo (eight map sample) Szejn is the only player option for the Boars above a 1.0 Rating as he sits with a 1.06 Rating, 0.69 KPR, 0.69 DPR, 1.12 IMP, and 79.0 ADR. For Overpass (six map sample) avis is the main target for this map, sitting with a 1.18 rating, 0.79 KPR, 0.67 DPR, 1.23 IMP, and 81.8 ADR. Three others also fit the bill here with siuhy at 1.12, Szejn at 1.02, and lastly, EXUS right at 1.0. For Dust2 (five map sample) the best player option doesn’t register above a 1.0 Rating, rather it is Szejn at 0.99, with a 0.72 KPR, 0.98 IMP, and 76.9 ADR. I am going to stick with my initial thought and think that this match should not last three maps. ALT will absolutely be looking for a bounce-back win in this match and I think they get it quite easily. Let’s talk options.
ALTERNATE ATTAX:
ANCHOR: stfN – (Going with the value CPT here, as he has topped two of the three potential maps, while also sitting with third best numbers on team over last month)
Top Stacking Options: stfN, slaxz-, kressy (mirbit for value)
IZAKO BOARS:
ANCHOR: Szejn – (Its either him or siuhy, both guys are only ones playing a smidge above average for this squad)
Top Stacking Options: Szejn, siuhy, AVIS
MATCH 2
Excellency (Ranked 118th in World) vs BIG Academy (Ranked 110th in World)
In the second of two matches today featuring two squads entering the match with 1-1 records so far for the event, we have Excellency and BIG Academy. Excellency did not play so excellent against Syman on Tuesday, taking the reverse 0-2 sweep, while BIG did exactly what I had mentioned I thought might happen – They did take AVEZ the full distance of three maps as I had expected, however they couldn’t grab the win in the end as AVEZ took down the third and final map to win the match in a 2-1 result. Got to give mad props to this BIG team however, they have played really well so far in this tournament. Looking at the current betting odds for this match, it is pretty much split right down the middle at the books with both teams garnering some juice. Excellency is sitting at -115 currently on the money line, while BIG is also sitting at -112 on the money line. Obviously, we do not have any prior head-to-head history to analyze, so let’s take a look at the last month of individual performances. For Excellency (20 map sample) it is Dav leading the team (who also had a pretty bad game on Tuesday, so could be a bounce-back) sitting at 1.04 Rating, 0.65 KPR, 0.66 DPR, 1.04 IMP, and 68.5 ADR. Both rilax and HOLMES follow him with rilax at 1.02, and HOLMES at 1.01. For BIG (26 map sample) Krimbo still sits at the top with a 1.16 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 0.70 DPR, 1.26 IMP, and 84.6 ADR. Just one other to follow here, and that is PANIX at 1.12 Rating over this span. Let’s take a look at some projected maps.
The first two ban maps for these two include Overpass for Excellency and Vertigo for BIG. The first two typical map choices as of late for these two have been Inferno for Excellency, and Nuke for BIG. Ironically enough, both teams have somewhat of “reverse-splits” on their first picked maps lately, as both have not done well on them respectively at all. BIG is only winning Nuke 30% of the time over their last 10 opportunities, while Excellency is only winning Inferno just 33% of the time over their last six tries. Either way, I do feel pretty confident that these will be the two maps chosen by these two, so let’s take a look at some top performers lately. For Excellency on their projected map choice of Inferno (five map sample) it is HOLMES at the top with a 1.14 Rating, 0.70 KPR, 0.65 DPR, 1.16 IMP, and 78.6 ADR. Two others have played well here as well in NK4Y at 1.07, and rilax at 1.05. For Nuke (three map sample) Dav is the lead here, and the only to make the list with a 1.07 Rating, 0.68 KPR, 0.69 DPR, 1.11 IMP, and 72.9 ADR. For BIG on their projected map choice of Nuke (seven map sample) Krimbo has been the best lately with a 1.21 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 0.69 DPR, 1.19 IMP, and 88.6 ADR. Just one other for the list here and that is PANIX at 1.14 Rating. For Inferno (three map sample) Krimbo once again in the lead here with a 1.24 Rating, 0.84 KPR, 1.38 IMP, and 86.4 ADR. Prosus is the only to follow here sitting at 1.04. I am going to be backing BIG here, as I just think they are a much more solid squad after watching them the last few days. Excellency looked really bad against a sub-par Syman team on Tuesday, and BIG has shown lots of promise against some decent opponents lately. I think we could potentially see three maps here as well. Let’s talk options.
EXCELLENCY:
ANCHOR: Dav – (Dav had a rough day on Tuesday, so expecting a much better match in this one for him)
Top Stacking Options: Dav, HOLMES, rilax (NK4Y value)
BIG ACADEMY:
ANCHOR: Krimbo – (pretty easy pick here, as this player is the carry easily for this squad and has upside)
Top Stacking Options: Krimbo, PANIX, prosus
MATCH 3
Syman (Ranked 37th in World) vs AVEZ (Ranked 53rd in World)
The first best of three with teams sitting with a 2-0 record for today’s slate with feature both Syman, who took down Excellency as noted above, facing off against AVEZ, who were pushed the full distance yesterday by BIG before winning 2-1. The current betting odds for this match are listing Syman as the favorite in this one, being listed as a -220 favorite on the money line to win this match. However, we do have one match of head-to-head data to analyze for this match, and luckily for us it was just four short days ago. Syman did win the match in a 2-1 result, as AVEZ was only able to win Nuke, while Syman took down both Inferno and Train, both by the same score of 16-9. While Avez also won Nuke 16-9. Pretty crazy, right? Either way, I feel this is such a sweet spot for AVEZ, and I am going to say that initially I like them here. For one, I don’t put much weight on Syman’s win over Excellency, and for two, this has revenge written ALL over it with AVEZ just taking the loss to this team a few days ago! Since we do have that one match to analyze, let’s see who the top performers were for it. For Syman, n0rb3r7 had quite the day as he went for a 72-54 K-D, with a 1.37 Rating, and 101.0 ADR. Second best option was mou, who went 52-45, with a 1.13 Rating, and 70.9 ADR. For AVEZ it was no other than KEi with a 69-55 K-D, 1.30 Rating, and 93.9 ADR. Markos also had a nice day going 65-54 K-D, with a 1.17 Rating, and 83.9 ADR. Let’s take a look at some projected map picks for this match.
The first two ban maps for this match include Vertigo for Syman and Mirage for AVEZ. The two typical first map choices lately have included Overpass for AVEZ, and Train for Syman. Both of these maps present a small edge to their respective team choosing them, as AVEZ has played well on Overpass (61% success rate over last 18 tries), but Syman has a four-map winning streak there going as well. On the flip side, Syman is also playing well on Train, winning this one 67% of the time lately, while AVEZ just 53% lately. I do think that both teams could and should win their map pick, but I think it comes down to Overpass to be honest. AVEZ needs to win this one. However, I do feel these two maps will be chosen, so let’s take a look at some top performers there lately. For Syman on their projected map choice of Train (nine map sample) n0rb3r7 is the top guy, and by a decent margin, sitting at 1.18 rating, 0.80 KPR, 0.68 DPR, 1.21 IMP, and 89.9 ADR. Both kade0 (1.04), and Keoz (1.03) are the only two to follow here. On Overpass (eight map sample) it is once again n0rb3r7 at the top with a 1.22 rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.49 IMP, and 92.1 ADR. Mou is close behind sitting at 1.20 rating, and Keoz rounds it out sitting at 1.13. For AVEZ on their projected map choice of Overpass (six map sample) KEi is the lead here with a 1.18 rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.34 IMP, and 84.6 ADR. Two others fit the bill here with byali at 1.13, and Kylar at 1.06. For Train (11 map sample) KEi also at the top of this one with a 1.24 rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.33 IMP, and 89.5 ADR. Three of his teammates also have played well here starting with Markos at 1.14, Kylar at 1.12, and lastly, byali at 1.11. After seeing AVEZ numbers on Train, I do feel much comfier that this match will likely easily go three maps, and I’m sticking to my guns with an AVEZ revenge win. Let’s talk options.
SYMAN:
ANCHOR – n0rb3r7 – (easily been their best player lately, and in their head-to-head, and on projected maps)
Top Stacking Options: n0rb3r7, mou, Keoz
AVEZ:
ANCHOR: KEi – (He is their stud player, and he can carry most matches)
Top Stacking Options: KEi, Markos, Kylar
MATCH 4
Tikitakan (Ranked 65th in World) vs Gambit Youngsters (Ranked 28th in World)
In our final best of three match, featuring teams sitting with a 2-0 record so far for the Event, we have Tikitakan facing off against Gambit Youngsters. I could not be happier to watch this match, I’ll be honest with you. The current betting odds are loving some Gambit in this one, as they are listed as a -500 favorite on the money line to win this match. This is very interesting, as Gambit have been very, very good lately, but Tikitakan has literally gotten zero respect in the Event so far, and they have beaten two pretty decent teams in Illuminar and ALT aTTaX. There is no doubt about it, on paper Gambit is the better team, however, as I mentioned on me Twitter handle last night, Tiki have been balling ever since the addition of REDSTAR, who has now been a top two fragger for this team in his last three of four matches since joining. Once again, we do not have any head-to-head data, so we must look at the top performers recently for these two. Since we basically already know that Sh1ro and Ax1Le run the gauntlet for Gambit, let’s look at Tiki. For the last month (19 map sample) it has been Spinx at the top with a 1.21 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.26 IMP, and 86.9 ADR. Flamez sits next with a 1.16 Rating, with REDSTAR also at 1.16, aybeN at 1.15, and Djur even above average at 1.05. Interesting. Let’s go to the map data to see if anything else jumps out at us in this match.
The two first ban maps for these two include Nuke, and Overpass. Which also throws out Gambit’s first typical map choice of Overpass. I really think we could see some map strategy here from Tiki, as they have won all three of their map tries on both Dust2, and Mirage lately, with Dust2 being their typical first map choice, however, Gambit has had nice success on Dust2 lately while riding a four-map win streak there. SO, this would make me believe that we could easily, and even more so possibly, see Tiki go with Mirage as their pick. I think that Gambit could go with a couple maps with Overpass being banned here, one could be Train, and the other could be Vertigo. I would likely veer to the side of Vertigo, as it has been the higher chosen first map pick lately for Gambit, and they are winning it close to 70% as well. So, I am not wholly confident in this projection, but I am going to see our maps could be Mirage and Vertigo. Let’s take a look at the top performers for these two maps lately for these squads. For Gambit on their projected map choice of Vertigo (19 map sample) Sh1ro of course claims the crown here with a 1.28 rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.31 IMP, and 81.1 ADR. All others follow him on this map starting with Ax1Le at 1.27, supra at 1.10, and both inters and nafany at 1.01. On Mirage (18 map sample) it is Sh1ro once again at the top with a 1.28 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.24 IMP, and 80.1 ADR. Just Ax1Le behind him here sitting at 1.19 Rating. For Tikitakan on their projected map choice of Mirage (five map sample) REDSTAR has been the best here lately with a 1.29 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.39 IMP, and 89.1 ADR. SPINX is next with a 1.27 Rating, 0.86 KPR, 1.31 IMP, and 91 ADR. Djur sits at 1.24, flameZ at 1.16, and aybeN at 1.09. For Vertigo (three map sample) Spinx has led the team here in that span with a 1.22 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.46 IMP, and 84.5 ADR. Only aybeN follows him here with a 1.07 Rating. This is the match that I am intrigued by the most and feel that Tiki has just been playing too well lately to totally throw them out on a loss here. Gambit is very good, but they have been beaten before. I am really split on the decision, but likely will have to side with Gambit as they just have a better track record, more maps played lately, and have crushed opponents lately. Let’s talk options.
TIKITAKAN:
ANCHOR: Spinx – (Tops projected maps, and has been their best player since their winning streak started)
Top Stacking Options: Spinx, REDSTAR, aybeN (flameZ for value)
GAMBIT YOUNGSTERS:
ANCHOR: Sh1ro – (if you have faded this guy lately, you have definitely lost money. He is the real deal)
Top Stacking Options: Sh1ro, Ax1Le, Supra
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: Sh1ro/Ax1Le, Spinx, stfN/slaxz-, KEi
Top Stacks: ALT aTTaX, BIG Academy, AVEZ, Gambit/Tiki
Top Values: flameZ, stfN, byali, HOLMES, Markos, Prosus