Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO July 15
Sean Mitchell breaks down the 2-match CS:GO DFS Nine to Five 1 Event slate for Wednesday beginning bright and early at 3:00 AM ET!
For early Wednesday morning, starting at 3:00 AM ET specifically, we have a 2-match semi-finals round for two best of three series in the Nine to Five 1 Event. Let’s see what we have on tap!
Hard Legion (Ranked 31st in World) vs AGF (Ranked 53rd in World)
The first semi-final best of three is between two familiar foes in Hard Legion and AGF. Looking over the current betting odds for this match, GG.BET is listing Hard Legion at -250 on the money line to win this match. This could be largely in part due to their prior recent success against AGF, we will talk about that shortly. AGF is fresh off a two-match winning streak as they cleared a 2-1 result for both of their recent matches against Secret and CR4ZY. Hard Legion got back in the winning-track in their most recent match against AVEZ but had recently dropped three-straight prior to that win. These two squads have faced-off three times so far in 2020, giving us some pretty good sample of individual performances to analyze, and it was Hard Legion who came out the victor in all three matches to boot (hence the hefty line on this one). It is worth mentioning that two of the three matches did go the full three-map distance, with the other leading to a 2-0 sweep for HL. Since we have eight maps of data to analyze, let’s see who performed the best for these two teams in that span. For Hard Legion (eight map sample) literally everyone on their team has a positive stat-line against AGF for this sample, however, it was Forester who set the bar with a +44 K-D diff, 1.33 K-D, and 1.30 Rating, with Krad coming in next with a +32 K-D diff, 1.23 K-D, and 1.28 Rating. For AGF (same eight maps) we have to remind that Kristou is a recent add for this team, and Daffu is also stepping-in for netrick at the time as well, so not going to have much data on these guys. Well, to be quite honest, none of the remaining three are even close to a positive stat-line against HL in that span, and let’s just say it is not pretty. To put it into some perspective, fr0slev has been the “best” on the remaining roster with a -6 K-D diff, 0.96 K-D, and 1.01 Rating. Let’s take a look at some maps to see if they can shine any further light into this one.
The first two ban maps for these two include Nuke for Hard Legion and Mirage for AGF lately. The first picks have been Inferno for AGF, and Overpass for Hard Legion. Looking at their prior matches, Dust2 showed up in every single match, while Inferno also showed up in all three as well. The only other map was Overpass twice. AGF has picked Inferno every recent match, while Hard Legion has picked Dust2 every single time as well. SO, think we can pretty easily say that we likely won’t see any curveballs in this one and can confidently say we “should” see Dust2 and Inferno for this match with Overpass a likely decider in the event it goes the distance. Let’s see who have performed well on these maps as of late. For Hard Legion on their projected map choice of Dust2 (25 map sample) Krad is the lead here with a 1.15 rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.27 IMP, and 84.8 ADR. He is followed by rAge at 1.12 Rating (who has a lovely 0.60 DPR, but only a mediocre 0.68 KPR), and Forester (0.69 KPR, but 0.70 DPR). For Inferno (33 map sample) Krad is once again at the top with a 1.19 rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.30 IMP, and 84.3 ADR (much better DPR at 0.66 here compared to 0.70 at D2). Next on the list here is Forester with a 1.08 (0.66 DPR is nice, 0.70 KPR also), rAge at 1.05 (low KPR at 0.62, but only 0.59 DPR also), and kinqie at 1.02 to round it out. For AGF on their projected map choice of Inferno (20 map sample) fr0slev sits at the top with a 1.20 rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.09 IMP, 0.62 DPR, and 83.1 ADR. Both TMB and Lukki meet the requirments here as well, with TMB at 1.16 (0.73 KPR, but 0.72 DPR, big IMP at 1.44 and nice ADR at 87.7), and also Lukki sitting at 1.01. For Dust2 (14 map sample) TMB is at the top for this one with a 1.14 rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.24 IMP, and 82.8 ADR. Only other one on the remaining roster to fit this one is fr0slev at the threshold of 1.00. I have to believe that going AGF in this one will be ultra-contrarian as I just don’t really see them having much of a chance to win. Head-to-head history has been well against them, they are a pretty significant dog as well, and Hard Legion just has a much better overall team that has good chemistry and not working with add-ins. Going to be siding pretty heavy with Hard Legion here. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: Krad – (I will have some Forester at capt as well, but Krad rates out too well for the projected maps and has been their second-best player against AGF in their prior matches)
Top Stacking Options: Krad, Forester, rAge
ANCHOR: fr0slev – (Has best overall stat-line against HL in recent matches, and rates decent for projected maps if you want to get froggy)
Top Stacking Options: fr0slev, TMB, Lukki/Kristou
Gambit Youngsters (Ranked 30th in World) vs ALTERNATE aTTaX (Ranked 39th in World)
The second best of three match in this semi-finals round should be a much better, closer match at first glance. Looks like two, way closer teams in terms of talent, and the current betting odds are also very close with Gambit only coming in as a -123 favorite on the money line to win this match. Both teams come in with nice form, but it is ALT aTTaX that have been very impressive lately with a perfect 5-0 winning streak going on with wins over Endpoint (twice) HellRaisers, SG.Pro, and CR4ZY. Gambit has swept three of their last four matches as well, so not so easy to discount this fact. Unfortunately, we do not have any prior head-to-head data to analyze for this match, so we will look at how these players have been performing over the last month. For Gambit Youngsters (32 map sample) it is no other than Sh1ro himself at the top with a 1.23 rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.26 IMP, and a nice 0.56 DPR. Ax1Le has also been playing well, sporting a 1.20 rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.19 IMP, 0.63 DPR, and 87.4 ADR. For ALT aTTaX (55 map sample) slaxz- has been the best on the team with a 1.18 rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.18 IMP, 0.58 DPR, and 74.5 ADR. All others on the team have been pretty consistent over the last month as well with kressy at 1.17 rating, stfN at 1.15, mirbit at 1.12, and even ScrunK at 1.04. Let’s take a look at some projected map choices for this one.
The first two ban maps for this match include Nuke, and likely Mirage. Both teams are banning Nuke at a very high rate, while Dust2 and Mirage also come in with the next highest ban percentage. However, I know Gambit likes to play on Dust2. The two first maps typically chosen lately for these two include Overpass for Gambit and Vertigo for ALT aTTaX. It is definitely worth mentioning that ALT has a seven-map winning streak going on Vertigo as well, winning over 80% of their last 30 attempts there (insane win percentage). In the even that ALT gets the first ban and goes Nuke, I would not be shocked to see Gambit ban Vertigo as their ban if Nuke is gone. Gambit has chosen Overpass quite a bit lately, nearly 30% of the time as their first map choice, and it has been pretty good to them as they have had a 73% success rate on it as well over their last 22 tries. I believe if the scenario goes as planned, we could see this match land on Overpass and Vertigo. Let’s see who is playing well on these lately. For Gambit on their projected map choice of Overpass (22 map sample) it is Ax1Le at the top, not Sh1ro lately, as he sits with a 1.31 rating, 0.81 KPR, 0.60 DPR, 1.31 IMP, and 92.2 ADR. Sh1ro does follow him up at 1.23, with interz at 1.08, supra at 1.07, and lastly, nafany at 1.04. For Vertigo (18 map sample) it is Sh1ro with the lead here at 1.30 rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.32 IMP, 0.56 DPR, and 82.5 ADR. Ax1Le does follow him here though pretty closely with a 1.26 rating, while supra comes in a 1.07, and both interz and nafany at 1.00. For ALT aTTaX on their projected map choice of Vertigo (30 map sample) kressy is the top play here with a 1.26 rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.29 IMP, 0.60 DPR, and 86.0 ADR. stfN also has a 1.26 rating, however his KPR is a bit lower but still good at 0.75, mirbit is at 1.23, and lastly both ScrunK and slaxz- at 1.15. For Overpass (16 map sample) slaxz- is the lead here with a 1.19 rating, 0.71 KPR, 1.19 IMP, 0.56 DPR, and 75.1 ADR. Mirbit follows at 1.15, kressy at 1.11, and stfN at 1.10 to end the list. I still believe this is a very close match, and would not be shocked at all to see it go a full three maps as well. I believe this match will be a split for me, as I will mainly be doing 3x2x1 lineup constructions where Ill likely be using this match as my 2-mans and one-offs. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: Ax1Le – (Sh1ro is def in play here as well at capt, but this guy has been a monster lately)
Top Stacking Options: Ax1Le, Sh1ro, supra
ANCHOR: slaxz- - (Rates out very well on both projected maps, and feel he has been very consistent as well)
Top Stacking Options: slaxz-, kressy, stfN