What’s up FAnation! Since I know most of us will not be awake in the morning for the 9 AM ET start (ok, who am I kidding, ill be up) I decided to do a write-up on the 2-game 12:30 PM ET time starting slate instead. Don’t get hot and bothered, I will be posting my thoughts in the FA #eSports live chat in the morning around an hour before lock for any early risers such as myself who will be playing the full 5-game slate. Either way, we are going to play some CS:GO tomorrow! Let’s talk about the 2-gamer, shall we?
Win CASH with CSGO Prop Games from Monkey Knife Fight - Click Here for a special offer.
**TOP MONKEY KNIFE PLAYS**
1.) Rapid Fire - (First TWO maps ENCE vs VIT)
- Allu +3.5 Kills over ZywOo
- Aerial -0.5 Kills over RpK
2.) More/Less (First TWO maps FNA vs COMPL)
- Brollan OVER 42.5 Kills
- k0nfig OVER 39.5 Kills
3.) Promo Pick - More/Less (NORD VS DEMO)
-NaToSapHix UNDER 19.5 Kills
-MorelZ UNDER 17.5 Kills
Game 1
Complexity (Ranked 26th in World) vs Fnatic (Ranked 2nd in World)
I’ll be the first to admit, Fnatic has not exactly looked like the 2nd best team in the World lately, as they have dropped three of their last five, including a 1-2 loss in their most recent match to Vitality, a 1-2 result also to Dignitas, and a pretty embarrassing 0-2 sweep at the hands of ENCE. I guess one could say this is a “champion’s hangover” as they were crowned champions of ESL Pro League Europe just a few short weeks ago, so this is their first major event since that concluded. You would think this should still not be any excuse for a once top ranked team in the World, but maybe the drive is a bit lost at the moment. Nonetheless, I know I have said this a few times lately in these matches with Fnatic, saying that at any moment they will pop out of the funk and return to form, but I do think this could be the match. Let’s face it, Complexity isn’t very good. They have lost four of their last five, however, their only win so far in their last five matches was against a ENCE team that swept Fnatic just five matches ago. The losses were to teams that Fnatic has beaten in Heretics and Astralis, also losing to Vitality and NiP as well. To be frank, I just noticed that these two teams also faced off in the ESL Pro League Season 11 Europe, where Fnactic swept them by a 16-6 and 16-9 result. Again, I will say it, this could be exactly what Fnatic needs to get back in focus and back on track in the Road to Rio event. Per the betting odds, Fnatic comes in as a -362 favorite at the time being.
Let’s look at some map history, which I need to note that the two maps played in the prior tournament were Dust2 and Mirage. Just so happens that Complexity is choosing Mirage as their first map pick almost 60% of the time in their recent matches, and also winning roughly 70% of their last 13 tries there, including a 5-map winning streak as well. Fnatic has chosen Inferno roughly half of their first picks lately, while both teams have been banning Vertigo roughly 30 and 40% lately as well. I would like to say that Complexity would have a chance on their recent map choice of Mirage, but this was not the case in their prior match, and Fnatic has a winning track-record on this map as well lately. Only other map I could see Complexity trying to pull a smooth one on Fnatic with is Nuke. A map they have chosen first less than 10% of the time lately but have won 62% of their last 8 tries there. Dust2 is split right down the middle, but Fnatic has had trouble there lately losing 5 maps in a row, however, Train and Overpass both favor Fnatic. So, if for some reason Complexity tries to sway Mirage in lieu of their recent match where they lost 16-6 to Fnatic on, and pick Nuke, which other than Vertigo is the least played map for Fnatic in recent memory, we could see a chance that they steal a map. If not, they may still get lucky and steal Mirage as it has been good to them lately. Interesting stuff here, but I still have Fnatic in a 2-0. Let’s talk players.
COMPLEXITY
ANCHOR: k0nfig – (Over last month online – 1.08 Rating, 0.76 Kills per Round, 69.7 Kill-Asst%, 1.13 IMPACT, 78.3 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: k0nfig, poizon, blameF
FNATIC
ANCHOR: Brollan – (Over last month online – 1.18 Rating, 0.77 Kills per Round, 71.2 Kill-Asst%, 1.28 IMPACT, 81.7 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: Brollan, Krimz, Flusha (JW for value)
Game 2
Vitality (Ranked 9th in World) vs ENCE (Ranked 21st in World)
At the current moment in Group play, the 4th seed in Vitality is facing off against the 6th seed in ENCE in this best of three match. Per the betting odds, Vitality also comes in as a slight favorite at a -185 number. Both of these teams have similar numbers for this event so far, but Vitality has one more win at (3) than ENCE, not the mention ENCE has a -27-round differential in the event also, which is not good. These teams do know each quite well however, as they have faced off in the ESL Pro Leauge Season 11 Europe, where Vitality took a 2-1 victory. They also played three matches in 2019, two best of three’s and a best of two. In the two best of three’s, Vitality won both with a 2-1 result, but the best of two was a 2-0 sweep by ENCE. Both of these teams have a stud player that is very fun to watch – ZywOo (1.32 Rating for event) for Vitality and allu (1.17 Rating for event) for ENCE. I obviously believe this will be the closer match of the two in this slate, and I do think it has absolutely more potential of seeing a third map. With that said, let’s take a look at the maps.
Looking at their prior history of maps in those four matches mentioned above, Dust2 was chosen three times, won twice by Vitality. Inferno was also chosen three times, also won twice by Vitality. Nuke was also chosen three times, won all three times by ENCE. Maybe ENCE should continue to choose Nuke huh? Looking at their recent map picks and bans, it just so happens that Vitality ironically has chosen Nuke around 40% of the time as their first pick lately. It has not gone well for them, as they have lost five of their last nine tries. ENCE has done even worse interestingly enough, only winning uno of their last seven tries there recently. ENCE has actually been choosing Train as their first map choice roughly 35% of the time lately, and it has been a darling to them as they have won five of their last seven tries there, while this has been the first ban of Vitality. ENCE has been banning Vertigo almost 100% of the time lately, and Vitality could have used this map as they have won three of their last four there. I could see this going back to Dust2, Inferno, and Nuke. Mirage is in the mix also, and still favors Vitality. Inferno slightly favors ENCE, and Dust2 is somewhat split, however ENCE has a 4-map winning streak going there. SO, could see map picks being Nuke and Dust2? I could. With Inferno or Mirage as a decider. I could see this match going three maps easily. Let’s talk players.
VITALITY
ANCHOR: zywOo – (Over last month online – 1.32 Rating, 0.85 Kills per Round, 76.0 Kill-Asst%, 1.29 IMPACT, 87.1 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: zywOo, shox, mistuaaa
ENCE
ANCHOR: allu – (Over last month online – 1.23 Rating, 0.78 Kills per Round, 71.7 Kill-Asst%, 1.29 Impact, 82.8 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: allu, sergej, Aerial
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: ZywOo, Brollan, allu, k0nfig (Ranked in order)
Top Stacks: Fnatic, Vitality, ENCE, Complexity (Ranked in order)
Top Values Under $7K: shox, sergej, JW, mistuaaa, Aerial (Ranked in order)