The Road to Rio event has returned after taking a day off for Monday. On this fine Tuesday we have a four-game main slate starting at 12:30 PM ET, so make sure to get those lineups reserved before they fill! We have reached the end of the first set of groups play, and now the 1’s and 2’s from each group play will go to the upper-bracket, with the 3’s and 4’s going into the lower bracket. Now, we are getting close to the playoffs push, and these matches should get really good! Let’s jump in!
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**TOP MONKEY KNIFE PLAYS**
1.) Rapid Fire - (Map one for FaZe vs GODSENT)
-NiKo -2.5 Kills over Maden
-Broky -0.5 Kills over RaiN
2.) Rapid Fire - (Map one for NiP vs Heretics)
-Plopski +0.5 Kills over Nivera
-Maka +0.5 Kills over Lekr0
3.) Rapid Fire - (First map of c0ntact vs North)
-EsprianTo +1.5 Kills over Aizy
-Kjaerbye +0.5 Kills over ottoNd
4.) PROMO PICK - More/Less (Intech Tenerife Titans vs Sector One)
-Ritchee OVER 19.5 Kills
-Kzealos Under 18.5 Kills
Game 1
FaZe (Ranked 7th in World) vs GODSENT (Ranked 17th in World)
Have seen some spectacular things from both of these teams while in the first stage of group play for the B Group. This best of three match should be one of the more entertaining ones on the day in my opinion, as it has one of my favorite teams in this whole event in FaZe. FaZe comes in as the 1-seed for this group, with GODSENT securing the 2-seed, as they will face off for the upper-bracket here int his match. FaZe got the monkey off their backs in their last match against a very good Mousesports team in a 2-0 sweep. They were fielding tons of issues in their late-game closing aspects and went in and did exactly the opposite against them in their most recent match. Their form is amazing coming into this game, as they have 2-0 swept three of their last five matches, while winning all five with the other two at a 2-1 result. FaZe arguably is one of the best teams in the World, and when they are clicking on all cylinders as a team they are just about un-beatable. However, the match they get today with GODSENT won’t be exactly easy. Although, FaZe comes in as a -540 favorite to get the win here per the bookmaker. GODSENT has won their last three matches in the Road to Rio series over c0ntact, North, and a three-seed currently in Copenhagen Flames. Only team to be swept by was G2 four matches ago, and since then have reeled off three really nice wins, however they need three maps in those three to do so. On a pure talent assessment, FaZe has more stud-power in my opinion, but if their secondary guys don’t pick up the slack when their top guys like NiKo, Broky, and Coldzera aren’t performing well, then that’s when they bad FaZe comes out. GODSENT will need a full-team effort in this one, and honestly, if FaZe is on, I highly doubt even that will be enough.
Let’s talk a bit about some maps for these two lately. Very interestingly is that Mirage has been a roughly 40% first map choice for FaZe lately, and they have won eight straight there and 9 of their last 10, however, this has also been the first ban map choice of GODSENT 90% of their recent matches. The first ban map pick for FaZe is Vertigo, and this doesn’t bother GODSENT as they have only won roughly 40% of their last seven tries there. I could likely see FaZe choosing Inferno, as it has been a good map for them lately winning on this map 67% of the time in their last nine stops there, while GODSENT has only won a putrid 11% of their last nine tries there. GODSENT has been picking Overpass close to 30% of the time as their first map pick, and I could see this trend continuing as FaZe has only won two of their last six tries on Overpass. With that said, I could easily see these two squads win their first map picks, and if it came down to the third and final map, who would we like? This would leave Train (pretty much split), Dust2 (favors GOD slightly), and lastly Nuke, which is near split as well. If this match happens to get to three maps, I’d buckle in as I think either of the last three maps could literally go either way, and not one map is exactly “strong” for one side or the other. Let’s talk player options.
FAZE
ANCHOR: NiKo – (Over last month online – 1.19 Rating, 0.66 Deaths per Round, 72.2 Kill-Asst%, 1.24 IMPACT, 0.78 Kills per Round, 85.9 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: NiKo, Broky, Coldzera (Olof for value here)
GODSENT
ANCHOR: Maden – (Over last month online – 1.08 Rating, 0.72 Kills per Round, 67.8 Kill-Asst%, 1.15 IMPACT, 77.2 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: Maden, ZeHn, STYKO (Maikelele for value)
Game 2
C0ntact (Ranked 37th in World) vs North (Ranked 25th in World)
This best of three match features the current seven and eight seed of Group B. Both of these teams have a combined one win so far in this event. Per the betting odds currently, North comes in as roughly a 2-to-1 favorite to win this match and are the only team to secure a win so far of the two. Both of these teams are pretty familiar with each other, as they played a total of five matches through the course of the 2019 year. It was North who slightly edged out the win columns in these matches, winning three of the five overall matches, with six game wins to c0ntact’s five game wins. Need I remind you that c0ntact has won a single match yet and have a -46 rounds differential. That is “not good.” Obviously, we can’t just come out and say that North is so much better as a team, literally feel like they luck-boxed their 2-0 sweep over Mousesports, and no one will convince me otherwise. They were also swept by the Copenhagen Flames in their most recent Road to Rio match, but did take both GODSENT and FaZe the distance as well for three maps in those respective matches. Going back to their head-to-head match history from last year, these two teams were basically split, with North winning just one more match. Their best of three matches both went a full three maps to boot.
Let’s talk some maps for these two. Much like the match listed above, c0ntact’s first map choice lately has been Mirage, where they have seen an admirable 75%-win clip, winning three of their last four. However, this has been North’s highest ban-rate map lately as well sitting at 33% banned lately. The first ban lately for c0ntact has been Overpass, not a big deal as North has been putrid there only winning one of their last four tries there. The first picks have been Vertigo for North, winning 67% of their last nine tries there, and Mirage for c0ntact mentioned above. The second map choice for c0ntact has been Inferno, a map they have won 80% of their last five tries, I could see that being a plus for them. So, Vertigo, Inferno, could see a split 1-1 on these maps, leaving the third and final to be Nuke (favors North slightly), Train (c0ntact 5-map losing streak), and Dust2, favors North as well. So, map edge in my opinion goes to North as well. Let’s talk player options.
CONTACT
ANCHOR: EspiranTo – (Over last month online – 1.07 Rating, 0.70 Kills per Round, 1.11 IMPACT, 69.9 Kill-Asst%, 74.1 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: EspiranTo, ottoNd, emi
NORTH
ANCHOR: aizy – (Over last month online – 1.06 Rating, 69.3 Kill-Asst%, 1.07 IMPACT, 0.70 Kills per Round, 76.1 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: aizy, MSL, Kjaerbye
Game 3
Dignitas (Ranked 31st in World) vs Astralis (Ranked 1st in World)
Get a really good best of three match here with two of the older, but very solid teams in this event here in Astralis and DIG. If we remember correctly, DIG knocked off Fnatic three matches ago, which happened to be their only 2-1 win, or win in their last five tries in the Road to Rio. Astralis is likely the largest favorite on this four-game slate sitting at a hefty 9.5-to-1 to win this match currently per the bookmakers. These two teams have a very long history with each other, as many of the DIG players were also a part of the NiP team before branching off with DIG. However, the majority, well all of their prior matches were played in and before 2017 if that tells you how much older these two squads are generally in comparison to some of the younger squads. This should be an easy win for Astralis, as I don’t see them making many mistakes as Fnatic did, Fnatic being the 2nd best team in the World. Astralis did lose to Fnatic four matches ago with a 1-2 result. Everyone on Astralis is carrying a 1.07 rating or higher so far for this event except for Gla1ve, who sits a 0.98, so very close. DIG has three at or above 1.05 in GeT_RiGhT, Hallzerk, and f0rest, while both friberg and Xizt sit at 0.93 and 0.88. Just feel like overall, Astralis just has a way stronger team here and I don’t see an upset being potential here. Astralis is the best team in the World at the moment for a reason. Not going to even mess with map analysis, it just doesn’t favor DIG, and I am going to be on Astralis here, but I do feel they will be somewhat chalky so play with caution and try to fit value if playing in tournaments.
DIGNITAS
ANCHOR: hallzerk – (Over last month online – 1.16 Rating, 0.63 Deaths per Round, 67.7 Kill-Asst%, 1.32 IMPACT, 0.75 Kills per Round, 78.3 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: hallzerk, f0rest, GeT_RiGhT
ASTRALIS
ANCHOR: Device – (Over last month online – 1.17 Rating, 0.62 Deaths per Round, 0.75 Kills per Round, 70.1 Kill-Asst%, 1.25 IMPACT, 79.0 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: Device, Magisk, Xyp9x
Game 4
Heretics (Ranked 30th in World) vs NiP (Ranked 13th in World)
This should be another very entertaining best of three match against two teams that have both played very well lately. NiP is fresh off a 2-1 result against Complexity and have won four of their last five matches. Their only loss was two matches ago against Astralis. Heretics were hot as fire before being cooled off by Fnatic in a 1-2 loss result, and since then have also been swept by Astralis, and lost a 1-2 result to Secret as well int heir last couple. Per the betting odds at the current moment, NiP comes in as the favorite sitting at a 2.5-to-1 clip to win this match. Heretics were really getting carried by the strong play of a few key names in Maka, Nivera, and Lucky, and if those guys aren’t ready to play in this match, NiP will roll them pretty quickly. NiP are quite a damn good team, and well, Heretics seemed to have been riding a surge there for a minute, and I must thank them due to winning me a bunch of money, however I got NiP in this match. Do I think it could be close? Yes. Do I think that Heretics could steal a map? I do. The most likely case I can see though is that NiP gets a 2-0 sweep, as I just don’t think that Heretics are on the same talent level. These two squads faced off in October of 2019 and Heretics were able to steal map one, which was Nuke where they won that game 16-10. That was about all they won, as the next two maps – Dust2 and Inferno both went to NiP by both being a 16-4 result.
For the map analysis. As mentioned above, the map Heretics won on was Nuke, and it has been a good map for them as they have won 73% of recent tries there. I highly would assume they choose this map as their first pick for this match. NiP has been picking Vertigo as their first map pick and have won 8 of their last 10 recent tries there, however, Heretics have won all six of their prior games there as well. Heretics are banning Training over 80% of the time, and this isn’t a worry to NiP, as they have only won half of their recent tries there, and NiP are banning Dust2 almost 100% lately. Dust2 has been a good map to Heretics lately, as they have won 75% of their last eight tries there. With Nuke being an edge to Heretics, this is the only map I feel they could steal. Vertigo is really good for both, Overpass is split, Mirage is split, so if Heretics can steal Nuke, they may have a shot, at least should get three maps in that scenario. Let’s talk player options.
HERETICS
ANCHOR: Maka – (Over last month online – 1.21 Rating, 0.76 Kills per Round, 0.59 Deaths per Round, 71.7 Kill-Asst%, 1.36 IMPACT, 77.8 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: Maka, Nivera, Lucky
NiP
ANCHOR: nawwk – (Over past month online – 1.14 Rating, 0.74 Kills per Round, 76.2 Kill-Asst%, 1.07 IMPACT, 75.4 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: nawwk, Plopski, REZ (Lekr0 for value)
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: Maka, NiKo, Nawwk, Device, EsprianTo, Maden (ranked in order)
Top Stacks: FaZe, NiP/Heretics, Astralis, North (ranked in order)
Top Values Under $7K Salary: STYKO, Plopski, REZ, ZehN, f0rest, Maden, Lucky, Lekr0, Olofmesiter, Maikelele (ranked in order)