Welcome back, ladies and gents! For this Monday, we are only left with a 2-game Clutch slate after having 4-5 days full of Road to Rio Slates. We are not mad however, as this gives us something to do today, right! Be sure to be on the look-out for tomorrow’s article as well, when the Road to Rio kicks back off for the start of the main event! For now, we will be covering the two-game slate for today! Hope you enjoy!
Game 1
Alma (Ranked 192nd in World) vs Keyd (Ranked 159th in World)
For the BEST OF TWO series, yes, I said best of two, we see two Brazilian teams facing off once again in the Clutch series group stage. We don’t have a money line set for this match, but we see that Keyd comes in as a +127 dog to win by at least one of the two maps. Alma is -160 while receiving odds on at least one map themselves, so we can see that Keyd is a bit of a favorite per the betting odds currently. Both of these teams have not exactly been good lately, however Keyd did 2-0 sweep Soberano one match ago, a team that Alma split with a 1-1 result in their most recent match. These two squads have faced off, but not yet in the year of 2020. In 2019, they faced off three times, with Alma getting a 2-0 sweep in their most prior match with games of 16-14, and 16-13, so we can see the games were highly competitive and almost came down to the wire in both games of that match. The other two matches, we saw Keyd win in a best of one by a result of 16-9, and they won the third match as well with a 2-1 result in a best of three. Per the public, they are backing Keyd at around a 70% clip as well.
For the map analysis, these two teams have not played the same map twice in their prior 2019 matches, so we have to go off how they have done recently on the playing fields. It seems that Keyd has picked Vertigo first roughly 40% of the time in their recent matches, and for good reason, as they have won 60% of their last 5 maps played there. Alma has picked Inferno 53% of the time recently and have won only a lowly 33% in six tries there, but Keyd has played at Inferno twice lately and lost both maps tries. Keyd is banning Dust2 over 50% of the time lately, and this isn’t a factor for Alma, as they have only won this map in one of their last three tries. The first ban for Alma lately has been Nuke, this is also a map that Keyd won’t miss, as they have only one once there in their last three tries also. So, the maps we have left over are Overpass, Train, Mirage. I heavily believe if Alma doesn’t ban Vertigo, this is Keyd’s first pick easily. Alma has picked Overpass on 18% of their first picks, and they have also won at this map at a 60% clip in their last five tries, so this could be their first pick here. So, I give Vertigo to Keyd, and I give Overpass to Alma, that could potentially leave us with Train. Both teams have actually won over 50% at Train lately, with Keyd winning their last two of three there, and Alma winning a split of one of their last two there as well. These two did play at Train once in 2019, and Keyd came out victorious with a 16-12 result. I believe I have to give the edge here to Keyd and back the public along with it.
Player analysis for these two, Keyd has been heavily relying on three of their key players – Tifa (1.16 Rating for Event), jntzika (1.11 Rating for Event), and Piriaz1n (1.06 Rating for Event). While Alma has two players playing well for their last three months in R4ul (1.11 Rating for L3 Months), and nqz (1.07 Rating for L3 Months), while it is important to note that four of their five player options however are at or above a 1.00 Rating 2.0 for the past three months. BUT, only one player has over a 1.00 Rating 2.0 for this event so far, and that is nqz at 1.05. Let’s talk about some options.
ALMA
ANCHOR: R4ul – (For the past 3 Months playing online – 1.22 Rating 2.0, 0.64 Deaths per Round, 75.6 Kill-Asst%, 1.29 IMPACT, 83.5 ADR, 0.77 Kills per Round)
Top Stacking Options: R4ul, nqz, DANVIET (can use FATAL as value play)
KEYD
ANCHOR: piriaz1n – (Last 3 months online – 1.18 Rating 2.0, 0.69 Deaths per Round, 70.4 Kill-Asst%, 1.32 IMPACT!, 83.7 ADR, 0.76 Kills per Round.
Top Stacking Options: piriaz1n, mawth, jntzika (tifa for value)
Game 2
W7M (Ranked 136th in World) vs DETONA (Ranked 93rd in World)
Another series with a best of two between two Brazilian foes who are very familiar with each other here for the second game of this Clutch slate. Per the betting odds, W7M is coming in as the “favorite” to win, as they are -154 to win by at least one map, while DETONA is getting plus a half a map at -195 as well, meaning if it goes 1-1 split, DETONA will win per the betting odds. Both of these teams also come into today’s match not exactly being on the winning side of things lately, as W7M has won one of their last five matches, and it was a 2-0 sweep over Alma, while DETONA has split their last two matches 1-1, while also losing by the 0-2 sweep in the prior three before that. These teams have played two best of three matches in 2020, with DETONA winning BOTH with a final of 2-1. So, they went the distance in both matches, and DETONA pulled out the wins both times for this year so far. Most of the games were competitive, as we can see that five of the six games saw the loser winning double-digit rounds in the losses. Both teams have swapped wins on certain maps, however it seems that Nuke has been really good to DETONA in these two matches, as they have swept this map 2-0 in the matches as well.
Let’s talk a little map analysis, shall we? I have to start by giving the edge to W7M here, as they are picking Mirage as their first pick 80% recently and winning this map in four of their last five tries, while DETONA has played once, and lost. DETONA’s first pick has been Dust2, however they have only had success there twice in their last two tries. W7m is banning Vertigo 65% of the time, while DEONTA is banning Overpass over 60% of the time as well. DETONA will need to go to Nuke, as I could see this being a map they can win as they have in the past. They will need to win at either Dust2, Inferno, or Train, because we have a good feeling that W7M will pick Mirage, and likely win this map as their track record is obviously very good there. W7M has the edge on Train, as DETONA has been on a 7-map losing streak here lately, so this could be a map that DETONA bans as well if they choose to not ban Overpass like they have lately. I do think this match goes three maps, and I think the decider will be Inferno or Dust2. You want to give the edge to W7M, but DETONA has had their number so far this year. Will that change?
For the player analysis, W7M has been hot as far as their player options with every single player over 1.08 Rating 2.0 for the event so far. DETONA will need a strong showing from their stud, vsm, who has carried a very hefty 1.33 Rating 2.0 for the event, and 1.18 Rating 2.0 for his past three months playing. They also have two others with a 1.09 (tiburci0), and 1.10 (lucaozy) ratings for the event, so they do have a decent squad. Their weak point has been rikz, 0.78 rating for event, and 0.78 for last three months. I like to say I like DETONA’s main guys for 2-3 man stacks here, as they are more concentrated on this team. Let’s talk about some options.
W7M
ANCHOR: pancc – (1.11 Rating 2.0, 0.73 Kills per Round, 68.6 Kill-Asst%, 1.19 IMPACT, 79.0 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: pancc, ableJ, real (skullz for value)
DETONA
ANCHOR: vsm – (1.18 Rating 2.0, 0.78 Kills per Round, 1.28 IMPACT, 86.5 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: vsm, lucaozy, tiburci0
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: vsm, piriaz1n, r4ul, pancc/ableJ
Top Stacks: DETONA, KEYD
Top Values (Under $7k Salary): Skullz, DANVIET, real, tifa, lucaozy