CS:GO DFS Playbook: Flashpoint 3 – 5.26.2021
Astralis (Ranked 5th in World) @ Heroic (Ranked 3rd in World)
Betting Odds: Heroic -205/Astralis +155
Map Odds: 2.5 Over -100/Under -130
*This is a best of three lower-bracket semi-final match for Flashpoint 3.
*Astralis For Event: Magisk 1.12 Rating, dupreeh 1.09, Xyp9x 1.07, gla1ve 1.03, Bubzkji 1.02.
*Astralis For Last Month (14 Maps): Magisk 1.12 Rating, Bubzkji 1.05, Xyp9x 1.02, dupreeh 1.01, gla1ve 0.96.
*Heroic For Event: TeSeS 1.15 Rating, sjuush 1.14, stavn 1.12, cadiaN 1.11, refrezh 1.07.
*Heroic For Last Month (17 Maps): TeSeS 1.20 Rating, sjuush 1.15, stavn 1.13, refrezh 1.12, cadiaN 1.11.
H2H DATA:
*These two teams have only played once so far in 2021 with Heroic sweeping 2-0 at DreamHack Masters Spring 2021 with a result of 16-6 on Inferno and 16-6 on Nuke.
*Top Performers For Astralis (2 Maps): Magisk +1 K-D Diff, 1.15 Rating, 86.6 ADR.
*Top Performers For Heroic (2 Maps): TeSeS +31 K-D Diff, 1.98 Rating, 126.2 ADR. sjuush +20 K-D Diff, 1.51 Rating, 86.9 ADR. refrezh +11 K-D Diff, 1.25 Rating, 71.2 ADR.
MAPS:
*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Dust2 for Heroic and Mirage for Astralis. I think we see Nuke for Heroic and Inferno for Astralis.
*Astralis on Inferno (9 Maps): gla1ve 1.02 Rating, 0.61 KPR, 1.08 IMP, 73.7 ADR. Magisk 1.02, dupreeh 0.95, Bubzkji 0.95, Xyp9x 0.91. On Nuke (7 Maps): Magisk 1.22 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.19 IMP, 81.7 ADR. dupreeh 1.03, Bubzkji 1.03, Xyp9x 0.96, gla1ve 0.95.
*Heroic on Nuke (11 Maps): TeSeS 1.26 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.15 IMP, 84.7 ADR. refrezh 1.18, cadiaN 1.16, stavn 1.15, sjuush 1.12. On Inferno (10 Maps): TeSeS 1.14 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.12 IMP, 81.0 ADR. cadiaN 1.11, refrezh 1.05, stavn 1.05, sjuush 1.04.
Analysis: Heroic is the best team in the World currently and I think the books know this, and that’s why they are -205 favorites to win this match. I do think they win this match, and easily could 2-0.
NiP (Ranked 14th in World) @ BIG (Ranked 8th in World)
Betting Odds: NiP -115/BIG -110
Map Odds: 2.5 Over -115/Under -115
*This is a best of three lower-bracket semi-final match for Flashpoint 3.
*NiP For Event: REZ 1.13 Rating, Plopski 1.10, device 1.04, hampus 1.00, ztr 0.83.
*NiP For Last Month (8 Maps): See above
*BIG For Event: XANTARES 1.18 Rating, tabseN 1.08, syrsoN 1.03, k1to 0.98, tiziaN 0.86.
*BIG For Last Month (33 Maps): XANTARES 1.18 Rating, syrsoN 1.05, tabseN 1.03, k1to 0.97, tiziaN 0.93.
H2H DATA:
*These two teams have played twice in 2021 with BIG sweeping the most recent 2-0, and BIG sweeping the prior match 2-0.
*Top Performers For BIG (4 Maps): syrsoN +23 K-D Diff, 1.34 K-D, 1.25 Rating. tabseN +19 K-D Diff, 1.23 K-D, 1.24 Rating. XANTARES +8 K-D Diff, 1.10 K-D, 1.10 Rating.
*Top Performers For NiP (4 Maps): Plopski +15 K-D Diff, 1.19 K-D, 1.20 Rating. device +13 K-D Diff, 1.12 K-D, 1.07 Rating.
MAPS:
*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Train for BIG and Vertigo for NiP. I think we see Overpass for NiP and Dust2 for BIG.
*NiP on Overpass (4 Maps): device 1.27 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.21 IMP, 86.5 ADR. hampus 1.19, Plopski 1.14, REZ 1.10, ztr 1.04. On Dust2 (5 Maps): device 1.23 Rating, 0.73 KPR 1.32 IMP, 79.4 ADR. REZ 1.15, ztr 1.08, Plopski 1.04, hampus 0.97.
*BIG on Dust2 (16 Maps): XANTARES 1.21 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.07 IMP, 79.4 ADR. k1to 1.15, syrsoN 1.13, tabseN 1.08, tiziaN 0.92. On Overpass (4 Maps): XANTARES 1.12 Rating, 0.74 KPR, 0.96 IMP, 78.4 ADR. syrsoN 1.10, tabseN 1.02, k1to 1.01, tiziaN 0.91.
Analysis: I think this match obviously turns out to be pretty close. Oddsmakers have it literally split right down the middle. I do lean BIG here, just because I think they can win Dust2, but I think it goes to a third map here and could go either way to be flat out honest.
Complexity (Ranked 11th in World) @ Anonymo (Ranked 39th in World)
Betting Odds: Complexity -265/Anonymo +195
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +105/Under -140
*This is a best of three 9th-12th place decider match in the lower-bracket final for Flashpoint 3.
*Complexity For Event: blameF 1.05 Rating, k0nfig 1.04, poizon 0.99, jks 0.93, RUSH 0.87.
*Complexity For Last Month (26 Maps): blameF 1.17 Rating, k0nfig 1.14, jks 1.02, poizon 0.92, RUSH 0.87.
*Anonymo For Event: KEi 1.10 Rating, snax 1.04, Kylar 0.97, innocent 0.91, mynio 0.89.
*Anonymo For Last Month (48 Maps): KEi 1.12 Rating, Kylar 1.02, Snax 1.00, innocent 0.99, mynio 0.91.
H2H DATA:
*These two teams have played once recently in the closed qualifier for this Event. Complexity won the match 2-1 with results of 16-11 on Nuke an 16-11 on Vertigo. Anon won Mirage 16-14.
*Top Performers For Complexity (3 Maps): k0nfig +24 K-D Diff, 1.43 Rating, 106.2 ADR. blameF +2 K-D Diff, 1.01 Rating, 72.4 ADR.
*Top Performers For Anonymo (3 Maps): Snax +9 K-D Diff, 1.03 Rating, 72.7 ADR. KEi +3 K-D Diff, 1.12 Rating, 80.7 ADR.
MAPS:
*The likely two banned maps for this match should include Dust2 for Anonymo and Train for Complexity. I think we see Mirage for Complexity and Nuke for Anonymo.
*Complexity on Mirage (19 Maps): blameF 1.29 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.30 IMP, 87.1 ADR. k0nfig 1.18, poizon 1.10, jks 1.02, RUSH 0.85. On Nuke (9 Maps): jks 1.10 Rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.03 IMP, 76.1 ADR. blameF 1.10, k0nfig 1.08, poizon 1.03, RUSH 0.94.
*Anonymo on Nuke (31 Maps): KEi 1.19 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.35 IMP, 85.6 ADR. Snax 1.11, innocent 1.09, Kylar 1.06, mynio 0.97. On Mirage (15 Maps): Snax 1.07 Rating, 0.71 KPR, 1.05 IMP, 73.3 ADR. innocent 1.04, Kylar 1.04, KEi 1.02, mynio 0.89.
Analysis: I honestly think we see a similar result as their last meeting between these two. I have to question how invested and interested Complexity will be in this one as they fell much short of where they would likely want to be in this Event. Anon ran them straight to the very end in their last meeting in this qualifier, so I would expect them to do so once again. I do think Complexity does get a bounce-back after they got dismantled last time out against FPX, but its tough as this Complexity team has lose five of their last six matches played, and ALL were 0-2 losses.
FunPlus Phoenix (Ranked 17th in World) @ Sprout (Ranked 30th in World)
Betting Odds: FPX -250/Sprout +185
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +105/Under -140
*This is a best of three 9th-12th place decider match for Flashpoint 3.
*FPX For Event: Maden 1.23 Rating, STYKO 1.12, Farlig 1.10, zehN 1.09, emi 0.98.
*FPX For Last Month (18 Maps): Maden 1.20 Rating, zehN 1.18, STYKO 1.13, Farlig 1.06, emi 0.97.
*Sprout For Event: faveN 1.18 Rating, slaxz- 1.02, kressy 1.00, denis 0.93, Spiidi 0.92.
*Sprout For Last Month (43 Maps): faveN 1.21 Rating, slaxz- 1.06, kressy 1.01, Spiidi 0.95, denis 0.93.
H2H DATA:
*These two teams have not played any recent head-to-head matches.
MAPS:
*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Mirage for FPX and Overpass for Sprout. I think we see Dust2 for Sprout and Inferno for FPX.
*FPX on Inferno (11 Maps): Maden 1.13 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.30 IMP, 83.5 ADR. STYKO 1.08, zehN 1.06, emi 1.04, Farlig 0.97. On Dust2 (3 Maps): emi 1.21 Rating, 0.66 KPR, 1.19 IMP, 76.0 ADR. STYKO 1.19, zehN 1.09, Maden 1.02, Farlig 1.02.
*Sprout on Dust2 (27 Maps): slaxz- 1.22 Rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.31 IMP, 79.1 ADR. faveN 1.21, kressy 1.07, denis 1.05, Spiidi 1.04. On Inferno (12 Maps): faveN 1.20 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.21 IMP, 81.8 ADR. slaxz- 1.08, kressy 1.05, denis 0.96, Spiidi 0.88.
Analysis: Honestly, I think this will be the best match of the day. These two teams have played extremely well as of late and FPX just routed Vitality yesterday while Sprout outlasted a good run by Anonymo. The books are showing their hand here on FPX, but I really think the betting line is inflated a bit due to the big win over Vitality. I think this is much closer than the odds show, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sprout give them a three-map run. I think this match is the biggest toss-up of the day. I am leaning Sprout though.
*TOP STACKS: Heroic, BIG, FPX
*TOP CONTRARIAN STACKS: Anonymo, Sprout
*TOP CPT PLAYS: TeSeS, cadiaN, KEi, Maden, XANTARES, device, Snax, faveN
*TOP FLEX PLAYS: blameF, Farlig, syrsoN, tabseN, Snax, stavn, slaxz-, refrezh, kressy, Xyp9x