CS:GO DFS Playbook: Flashpoint 3 – 5.25.2021 (4-Match)

Vitality (Ranked 10th in World) @ Heroic (Ranked 3rd in World)

Betting Odds: Heroic -235/Vitality +175

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -100/Under -130

*This is a best of three lower-bracket round three match for Flashpoint 3.

*Vitality For Event: ZywOo 1.25 Rating, apEX 1.01, misutaaa 1.00, shox 0.97, Kyojin 0.81.

*Vitality For Last Month (15 Maps): ZywOo 1.40 Rating, shox 1.00, apEX 1.00, misutaaa 0.99, Kyojin 0.85.

*Heroic For Event: sjuush 1.13 Rating, stavn 1.10, refrezh 1.09, cadiaN 1.05, TeSeS 1.02.

*Heroic For Last Month (15 Maps): sjuush 1.15 Rating, refrezh 1.14, TeSeS 1.14, stavn 1.12, cadiaN 1.08.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams have not played and recent head-to-head matches with the new cores of each team.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Dust2 for Heroic and Train for Vitality. I think we see Vertigo for Heroic and Nuke for Vitality.

*Vitality on Nuke (8 Maps): ZywOo 1.34 Rating, 0.86 KPR, 1.41 IMP, 87.9 ADR. apEX 1.15, shox 1.06, misutaaa 0.86, Kyojin 0.78. On Vertigo (3 Maps): ZywOo 1.58 Rating, 1.04 KPR, 1.84 IMP, 104.7 ADR. misutaaa 1.03, Kyojin 0.97, shox 0.96, apEX 0.85.

*Heroic on Vertigo (7 Maps): sjuush 1.25 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.14 IMP, 82.9 ADR. cadiaN 1.22, stavn 1.20, TeSeS 1.20, refrezh 1.08. On Nuke (10 Maps): TeSeS 1.24 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.12 IMP, 83.9 ADR. refrezh 1.22, stavn 1.16, cadiaN 1.13, sjuush 1.11.

Analysis: I am on Heroic and I just don’t feel like this match is that close even on paper. There is always that outside chance that ZywOo goes absolute nuclear, but I think still that Heroic is the MUCH better overall team here and the maps favor them as well.

 

FunPlus Phoenix (Ranked 17th in World) @ Complexity (Ranked 11th in World)

Betting Odds: Complexity -155/FPX +120

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -110/Under -120

*This is a best of three 9th-12th place decider upper-bracket semi-final match for Flashpoint 3.

*FPX For Event: Maden 1.21 Rating, zehN 1.04, STYKO 1.03, Farlig 1.02, emi 0.96.

*FPX For Last Month (16 Maps): Maden 1.18 Rating, zehN 1.16, STYKO 1.09, Farlig 1.03, emi 0.96.

*Complexity For Event: blameF 1.12 Rating, poizon 1.08, k0nfig 1.06, jks 0.93, RUSH 0.89.

*Complexity For Last Month (24 Maps): blameF 1.19 Rating, k0nfig 1.15, jks 1.03, poizon 0.94, RUSH 0.88.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams have played once so far in 2021 back at the ESL Pro League Season 13 with Complexity sweeping 2-0 with results of 16-10 on Dust2 and 16-6 on Nuke.

*Top Performers For Complexity (2 Maps): poizon +17 K- D Diff, 1.42 Rating, 94.9 ADR. blameF +13 K-D Diff, 1.31 Rating, 87.1 ADR. k0nfig +5 K-D Diff, 1.12 Rating, 77.2 ADR.

*Top Performers For FPX (2 Maps): No positive stat lines.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Mirage for FPX and Train for Complexity. I think we see FPX go with Inferno and Complexity go with Nuke.

*FPX on Inferno (10 Maps): Maden 1.11 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.31 IMP, 82.7 ADR. emi 1.09, zehN 1.04, STYKO 1.04, Farlig 0.95. On Nuke (7 Maps): STYKO 1.15 Rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.15 IMP, 81.8 ADR. Maden 1.00, Farlig 0.99, zehN 0.92.

*Complexity on Nuke (9 Maps): blameF 1.10 Rating, 0.69 KPR, 1.01 IMP, 81.6 ADR. jks 1.10, k0fnig 1.08, poizon 1.03, RUSH 0.94. On Inferno (8 Maps): blameF 1.11 Rating, 0.70 KPR, 0.87 IMP, 75.3 ADR. jks 1.08, k0nfig 0.95, poizon 0.94, RUSH 0.92.

Analysis: I honestly don’t like Complexity’s recent form and I have to say that FPX has been in every match competitively lately and have really looked good at times. This is also a bit of a revenge narrative for the sweep that was dealt to FPX at the hands of Complexity at the ESL Pro League not too long ago. I think that FPX can win this 2-1 or even 2-0 to be honest.

 

BIG (Ranked 8th in World) @ DBL PONEY (Ranked 33rd In World)

Betting Odds: BIG -190/DBL PONEY +145

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -110/Under -125

*This is a best of three lower-bracket round three match for Flashpoint 3.

*BIG For Event: XANTARES 1.21 Rating, tabseN 1.05, syrsoN 1.03, k1to 0.92, tiziaN 0.84.

*BIG For Last Month (34 Maps): XANTARES 1.20 Rating, syrsoN 1

*DBL PONEY For Event: afro 1.18 Rating, NBK- 1.05, body 1.03, Lucky 1.03, Djoko 0.96.

*DBL PONEY For Last Month (52 Maps): afro 1.20 Rating, body 1.11, Lucky 1.10, NBK 1.00.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams have not played any recent head-to-head matches.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Mirage for DBL PONEY and Train for BIG. I think we see Nuke for DBL PONEY and Dust2 for BIG.

*BIG on Dust2 (15 Maps): XANTARES 1.22 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.10 IMP, 80.2 ADR. syrsoN 1.15, k1to 1.13, tabseN 1.06, tiziaN 0.91. On Nuke (12 Maps): tabseN 1.10 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.25 IMP, 89.3 ADR. XANTARES 1.04, syrsoN 1.00, tiziaN 0.87, k1to 0.82.

*DBL PONEY on Nuke (31 Maps): afro 1.19 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.22 IMP, 75.0 ADR. Lucky 1.17, Djoko 1.13, NBK 1.05, body 1.04. On Dust2 (21 Maps): afro 1.23 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.25 IMP, 76.2 ADR. Lucky 1.22, NBK 1.17, body 1.15, Djoko 1.12.

Analysis: I honestly like the map selections here for DBL PONEY and they have played quite a bit lately, and actually some good competition also. BIG always finds ways to let me down, and although I am not just using that as an excuse here, they are wildly inconsistent and DLB PONEY has taken down some decent teams and ran Astralis to 2-1. I think they have a legit shot at winning this match.

 

Sprout (Ranked 30th in World) @ Anonymo (Ranked 39th in World)

Betting Odds: Sprout -115/Anonymo -110

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -115/Under -115

*This is a best of three match for 9th-12th place decider upper-bracket semi-final match for Flashpoint 3.

*Sprout For Event: faveN 1.12 Rating, kressy 1.01, slaxz- 0.98, Spiidi 0.97, denis 0.86.

*Sprout For Last Month (40 Maps): faveN 1.20 Rating, slaxz- 1.05, kressy 1.01, Spiidi 0.96, denis 0.92.

*Anonymo For Event: KEi 1.09 Rating, Snax 1.06, innocent 0.94, Kylar 0.94, mynio 0.86.

*Anonymo For Last Month (48 Maps): KEi 1.12 Rating, Kylar 1.02, Snax 1.00, innocent 1.00, mynio 0.90.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams have played two matches in 2021 so far with Anonymo winning the most recent by a result of 2-1 at Flashpoint 3 Closed Qualifier to get to this Event, and Sprout winning the latter 2-0.

*Top Performers For Sprout (5 Maps): faveN +21 K-D Diff, 1.24 K-D, 1.30 Rating. denis +7 K-D Diff, 1.08 K-D, 1.07 Rating. Spiidi +3 K-D Diff, 1.03 K-D, 1.07 Rating.

*Top Performers For Anonymo (5 Maps): KEi +13 K-D Diff, 1.30 K-D, 1.34 Rating. snax +6 K-D Diff, 1.07 K-D, 1.00 Rating. innocent +6 K-D Diff, 1.07 K-D, 1.06 Rating.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Dust2 for Anonymo and Overpass for Sprout. I believe we see Nuke for Anonymo and Train for Sprout.

*Sprout on Train (14 Maps): faveN 1.20 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.27 IMP, 86.5 ADR. slaxz 1.06, kressy 1.05, Spiidi 0.97, denis 0.90. On Nuke (20 Maps): faveN 1.06 Rating, 0.71 KPR, 1.02 IMP, 77.0 ADR. Spiidi 1.00, denis 0.98, slaxz 0.98, kressy 0.94.

*Anonymo on Nuke (31 Maps): KEi 1.18 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.31 IMP, 85.2 ADR. Snax 1.10, innocent 1.10, Kylar 1.07, mynio 0.96. On Train (11 Maps): KEi 1.15 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.30 IMP, 80.3 ADR. Snax 1.12, innocent 0.97, mynio 0.96, Kylar 0.94.

Analysis: I think this is quite the big revenge spot here for Sprout, but I am not sold they win. This Anon team are really solid and KEi wreaked havoc in this last meeting. If he is hitting shots, they could be hard to beat. I think Anon is quite a bit of leverage on this slate, but I could see a Sprout 2-1 or even sweep. It wouldn’t shock me as it is quite the revenge spot and Sprout has played well with a three-match win streak before losing to BIG in their last match out.

 

*TOP STACKS: Heroic, DBL PONEY, Sprout, FPX

*TOP CONTRARIAN STACKS: Anonymo, DBL PONEY, FPX

*TOP CPT PLAYS: cadiaN, ZywOo, KEi, faveN, Maden, afro, Snax

*TOP FLEX PLAYS: stavn, STYKO, Lucky, slaxz, sjuush, kressy, bodyy, zehN, Spiidi