The UFC returns home to Vegas for this week’s card. That means we are of course losing fights to COVID, weight cuts, and general anarchy. We soldier on. The most notable item is Kevin Holland getting a late replacement and significantly mispriced. He will be the chalkiest play in recent memory. His opponent has frosted tips for crying out loud. Whether or not to fade him is the biggest decision you face this week.
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Uriah Hall vs Anderson Silva | 8600/7600 | - | Stackability: Risky | -225/ +185 | +130/+480 |
| An absolute coinflip of a fun fight headlines ths card. Silva is fighting father time and slowly losing. This will be his last fight in the UFC. Hall has been an puzzling talent but seems rededicated. Neither man pushes a pace. That kills the fight as a stack. Barring some funky, spinning, KO I just can't see Silva winning against the much more athletic (and equally dangerous) Hall. I also don't see Hall wanting to demolish an idol. It could be a sad fight to end the night on. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Adrian Yanez | 9200 | Victor Rodriguez | Safe | -440 | -155 |
| Yanez has an enormous advantage on the feet. Rodriguez has some gritty-type wrestling but would need to show a newfound dedication to it for it to matter. Yanez is likely the second chalkiest fighter. | |||||
| Sean Strickland | 9100 | Jack Marshman | Somewhat-Safe | -355 | +160 |
| After a motorcycle crash and two year layoff, Strickland is easing back into action up a weightclass at 185. There are a lot of variables here. He's a decent bet to win the fight but it's hard for me to have confidence he scores on DK. Marshman is entirely hittable but threatens plus power back. That may lead Strickland to taking a safer approach. It also sounds like he doesn't want to take the easy way out submitting Marshman. | |||||
| Bobby Green | 9000 | Thiago Moises | Somewhat-Safe | -295 | +365 |
| Green has been making hay during the Pandemic as the UFC has been blowing his phone up. It seems to suit him. He's naturally more talented than most other fighters in his range but had been losing in strange ways. Now that talent is shining with opponents less prepared. His one pitfall is a lack of finishing ability despite soundly outstriking foes. | |||||
| Alexander Hernandez | 9300 | Chris Gruetzemacher | Moderate | -410 | +175 |
| Fighting a low-level late replacement leaves Holland severly mispriced and his ownership will be historically high (75%~ in GPPD, 99%~ in cash). There's somewhat of a window for fading in GPPs. With a modest win he'd exceed value but possibily be left off the optimal lineup. Holland doesn't tend to press hard for finishes. | |||||
| Bryce Mitchell | 8500 | Andre Fili | Somewhat-Risky | -125 | +230 |
| Mitchell needs to find a finish with a submission to have a shot at winning. Not impossible with his skill set, but a challenge against the vet Fili. That does make him a more interesting GPP play since a win likely scores well despite the stacked odds. | |||||
| Greg Hardy | 8800 | Maurice Greene | Somewhat-Risky | -315 | -135 |
| Hardy's finally facing a heavyweight over six feet again. Does losing the reach advantage change his gameplan? Perhaps. That's actually a good thing for DFS scoring. If he has to come out of his shell and fight a bit his raw athletecism could finally lead to a finish. Greene also tends to go outo n his shield when things aren't working. | |||||
| Miles Johns | 8400 | Kevin Natividad | Somewhat-Risky | -155 | +438 |
| I'd feel more confident in Johns if I could expect him to consistently wreslte. That seems to drain his gas tank, however. He does pack a nice right-hand but is immidiately at risk in a kickboxing match. | |||||
| Dustin Jacoby | 8900 | Justin Ledet | Risky | -355 | +120 |
| Making his return to the UFC after 8 years, the big question is can Jacoby keep the fight standing. They've given him an opponent that will be content to box. Jacoby is powerful and aggressive on the feet. He has potential for a big score but alos carries a good amount of bust risk. | |||||
| Jason Witt | 8300 | Cole Williams | Risky | -145 | +380 |
| Witt probably takes an ugly top-heavy wrestling affair here. It'd be nice to have some confidence he can finish. Willaims didn't offer much resistance in his UFC debut loss by submission. | |||||
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Andre Fili | 7700 | Bryce Mitchell | Somewhat-Risky | +115 | +400 |
| The inititial line was a disrespect to Fili and has since narrowed. It's still a pick em fight and Fili can be had for plus money. He's rounded into a consumate veteran with plenty of tools in his bag. This could be too big a jump for the raw Mitchell. I'm especially interested in Fili's snappy headkick that has led to his UFC KO's. | |||||
| Kevin Natividad | 7800 | Miles Johns | Somewhat-Risky | +135 | +295 |
| Outside of one flash KO Natividad has been a sparkplug. That's also come agaisnt lesser competition. Johns is UFC caliber but it's unclear what rung he lands on. A busy striking affair would potentially be his cryptonite. Natividad is capable of delivering that. | |||||
| Chris Gruetzemacher | 6900 | Alexander Hernandez | Somewhat-Risky | +365 | +550 |
| Gruetzemacher isn't a particularly notable fighter in any area other than determination. He can wrestle, he's busy on the feet, and moderately dangerous despite not having big power. If he can stuff enough of Hernandez's wrestling his forward pressure could give Hernandez fits. I also find Hernandez a bit of a fraud. | |||||
| Maurice Greene | 7400 | Greg Hardy | Risky | +285 | +427 |
| Greene likely needs to fall into submission to win here. His length makes that a slight possibility if the fighter tangle up. | |||||
| Justin Ledet | 7300 | Dustin Jacoby | Risky | +320 | +503 |
| Ledet's biggest challenge is motivation. He often looks disinterested and lets the fight come to him. His boxing is still decently crisp and he has some submission wins on the record. Jacoby is a fish out of water on the mat. He also tends to gas at a high pace and Ledet is durable enough to still be there if he does. | |||||
| Thiago Moises | 7200 | Bobby Green | Risky | +265 | +415 |
| Anyone with Moises BJJ credentials is always dangerous. He showed that in submitting Michael Johnson after getting walloped for a round. | |||||
| Cole Williams | 7900 | Jason Witt | Risky | +135 | +315 |
| Overweight and out of shape like he was in his UFC deubt. It's hard to back the journeyman. Witt has, however, been stung by less than ferocious strikes on the midwest circuit. Williams will be live in the early going if he isn't on his back. | |||||
Cash Plays:
(Sample lineup, these aren’t intended as examples of an optimal)
| DK Example Cash | Pivot | DK Example Cash Pivot | ||||
| Fighter | Opp | Salary | Fighter | Opp | Salary | |
| Holland | Muradov | $8,200 | ||||
| Yanez | Rodriguez | $9,200 | ||||
| Hall | Silva | $8,600 | to | Hardy | Greene | $8,800 |
| Fili | Mitchell | $7,700 | ||||
| Green | Moises | $9,000 | ||||
| Ledet | Jacoby | $7,300 | to | Gruetzemacher | Hernandez | $6,900 |
| Total Salary | $50,000 | Pivot Salary | $50,000 | |||
GPP Plays:
(Sample lineup, these aren’t intended as examples of an optimal)
| DK Example GPP | Pivot | DK Example GPP Pivot | ||||
| Fighter | Opp | Salary | Fighter | Opp | Salary | |
| Yanez | Rodriguez | $9,200 | ||||
| Jacoby | Ledet | $8,900 | to | Hardy | Greene | $8,800 |
| Witt | Williams | $8,300 | to | Williams | Witt | $7,900 |
| Natividad | Johns | $7,800 | to | Silva | Hall | $7,600 |
| Mitchell | Fili | $8,500 | to | Fili | Mitchell | $7,700 |
| Holland | Muradov | $8,200 | ||||
| Total Salary | $50,900 | Pivot Salary | $50,000 | |||
Favorite Bets: Green -295, Natividad +135, Ledet +320
Favorite Props: Fili ITD +400
Long Shot: Williams ITD +315
Live Dogs: Fili, Natividad, Ledet, Gruetzemacher, Williams, Silva
Stats & Picks:
| Uriah Hall | vs | Anderson Silva |
| $8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 16-9-0 | Record | Record: 34-10-0 (1 NC) |
| 11 KO/TKO (73%) | Knockouts | 23 KO/TKO (68%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (7%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (9%) |
| -225 | Vegas Odds | +185 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Bryce Mitchell | vs | Andre Fili |
| $8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 13-1-0 | Record | Record: 21-7-0 |
| 0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | 9 KO/TKO (43%) |
| 9 SUBMISSIONS (69%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (14%) |
| -125 | Vegas Odds | +115 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Maurice Greene | vs | Greg Hardy |
| $7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 9-5-0 | Record | Record: 6-2-0 (1 NC) |
| 2 KO/TKO (22%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (83%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (56%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| +285 | Vegas Odds | -315 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Kevin Holland | vs | Charlie Ontiveros |
| $8,200 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
| Record: 19-5-0 | Record | Record: 11-6-0 |
| 9 KO/TKO (47%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (36%) |
| 6 SUBMISSIONS (32%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (18%) |
| -750 | Vegas Odds | +525 |
| 9/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 |
| Bobby Green | vs | Thiago Moises |
| $9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 27-10-1 | Record | Record: 13-4-0 |
| 8 KO/TKO (30%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (23%) |
| 9 SUBMISSIONS (33%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (38%) |
| -295 | Vegas Odds | +265 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Chris Gruetzemacher | vs | Alexander Hernandez |
| $6,900 | DFS Salary | $9,300 |
| Record: 14-3-0 | Record | Record: 11-3-0 |
| 7 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (36%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (21%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (18%) |
| +365 | Vegas Odds | -410 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Adrian Yanez | vs | Victor Rodriguez |
| $9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 11-3-0 | Record | Record: 7-2-0 |
| 6 KO/TKO (55%) | Knockouts | |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (18%) | Subs | |
| -440 | Vegas Odds | +390 |
| 8/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 |
| Sean Strickland | vs | Jack Marshman |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 20-3-0 | Record | Record: 23-9-0 |
| 9 KO/TKO (45%) | Knockouts | 13 KO/TKO (57%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (20%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (22%) |
| -355 | Vegas Odds | +320 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Cole Williams | vs | Jason Witt |
| $7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 11-2-0 | Record | Record: 17-6-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (36%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (18%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (36%) | Subs | 7 SUBMISSIONS (41%) |
| +135 | Vegas Odds | -145 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Dustin Jacoby | vs | Justin Ledet |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 12-5-0 | Record | Record: 9-3-0 (1 NC) |
| 8 KO/TKO (67%) | Knockouts | |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) | Subs | |
| -355 | Vegas Odds | +320 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Cortney Casey | vs | Priscila Cachoeira |
| $8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 9-8-0 | Record | Record: 9-3-0 |
| Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (56%) | |
| Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (11%) | |
| -265 | Vegas Odds | +225 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Miles Johns | vs | Kevin Natividad |
| $8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 10-1-0 | Record | Record: 9-1-0 |
| Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (56%) | |
| Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (11%) | |
| -155 | Vegas Odds | +135 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |