Let’s all say a prayer that this week is problem free after the sacrificial lamb that last week’s debacle of a card was. The fights are typical Fight Night quality without a ton of live dogs. Take a chance on one or two dogs and concentrate on a core.
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Derrick Lewis vs Aleksei Oleinik | 8700/7500 | - | Stackability: Moderate | -178/ +167 | -140/+190 |
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Nasrat Haqparast | 9000 | Alexander Munoz | Safe | -235 | +155 |
People seem on the fence about Haqparast after Drew Dober KO'd him. I'm not. He made a mistake that Dober punished. We're on to this fight. Haq is the far better striker. Munoz won't really have an answer for it and his wrestling is probably ineffective. I like Haq for the floor and the ceiling. | |||||
Kevin Holland | 9400 | Joaquin Buckley | Somewhat-Safe | -420 | -145 |
I'm a little worried about Holland at this price. He's dynamic, when he wants to be. Buckley is generally tough and can threaten some power back. I can easily see Holland not hitting value as the most expensive fighter. | |||||
Beneil Dariush | 9100 | Scott Holtzman | Moderate | -380 | -125 |
Dariush would win this if it were purely a contest of skill. Holtzman's strength solid wrestling make it much closer. This fight has a wide range of outcomes. Beni's BJJ has always been good but it's become downright lethal. A sub is in play if Holtzman gets careless. | |||||
Youssef Zalal | 9300 | Peter Barrett | Moderate | -450 | +130 |
Zalal is overpriced on DK based on the his odds. He's very likely to win but doesn't fight a style that racks up points. He does have a shot at a submission win but it would need to be in round 1 at this price. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Darren Stewart | 8600 | Maki Pitolo | Moderate | -142 | +166 |
I'm doing my best not to underestimate Pitolo again. I still see the flaws even in a win over Byrd. Against Stewart, those mistakes are even more likely to be punished. Stewart has his own flaws, namely defensive grappling, I just don't see Pitolo having a plan to exploit it. | |||||
Irwin Rivera | 8900 | Ali AlQaisi | Moderate | -172 | +246 |
Rivera is slightly overpriced. That may not matter if he scores a finish. He has the aggression to do it. | |||||
Gavin Tucker | 8400 | Justin Jaynes | Moderate | -117 | +315 |
Tucker's ownership will always be tempered by people's memory of the beat down Rick Glenn gave him. It's best to consider that result but also view the fight in a vacuum. Tucker is the better fighter. A haymaker KO is Jaynes only real out. | |||||
Laureano Staropoli | 8300 | Tim Means | Somewhat-Risky | -137 | +205 |
Staropoli is tough and willing to brawl. That's a decent recipe to beat Means these days. Staropoli is outclassed without a KO finish, though. | |||||
Derrick Lewis | 8700 | Aleksei Oleinik | Somewhat-Risky | -178 | -140 |
Even when Lewis bails himself out of a fight he's losing with a surprise KO it comes late behind no volume. He'd have to do it in the first round for a change. Not impossible but not his style at this point. | |||||
Yana Kunitskaya | 8800 | Julija Stoliarenko | Risky | -178 | +420 |
Yana is the more well-rounded and more experienced fighter. If she can weather the early storm she should dominate the rest of the fight. | |||||
Omari Akhmedov | 8200 | Chris Weidman | Risky | +127 | +200 |
Akhmedov has the same shot to beat Weidman that the last six people have. Crunch his chin and he won't know what state he's in. | |||||
Chris Weidman | 8000 | Omari Akhmedov | Risky | 235 | +270 |
If his chin doesn't get checked Weidman is the better wrestler, better distance striker, and busier fighter. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Aleksei Oleinik | 7500 | Derrick Lewis | Somewhat-Risky | +167 | +190 |
Oleinik is game to engage anyone. That's his path to victory and his flaw. His chin still can eat one big shot. Not numerous shots. It will be interesting to see if he can control the freakishly strong Lewis if he gets him tied up. | |||||
Justin Jaynes | 7800 | Gavin Tucker | Somewhat-Risky | +107 | +250 |
Jaynes is KO or bust, and he knows it. | |||||
Scott Holtzman | 7100 | Beneil Dariush | Somewhat-Risky | +170 | +400 |
Holtzman could be the stronger grappler and work behind it to a decision win. Dariush also has major chin issues. | |||||
Julija Stoliarenko | 7400 | Yana Kunitskaya | Risky | +167 | +280 |
Stoliarenko goes for broke. That could lead to a fluke win but it's likely her undoing. | |||||
Ali AlQaisi | 7300 | Irwin Rivera | Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
The newcomer is a pretty big unknown. That's been hit and miss during the pandemic. | |||||
Maki Pitolo | 7600 | Darren Stewart | Risky | +132 | +285 |
Pitolo throwing bombs and wrestling like a bull rider could be trouble for the measured Stewart. | |||||
Joaquin Buckley | 6800 | Kevin Holland | Risky | +375 | +424 |
Buckley would need to stand up to some incoming fire and deliver a counter shot knockdown. |
DK Example GPP | Pivot | DK Example GPP Pivot | ||||
Fighter | Opp | Salary | Fighter | Opp | Salary | |
Holland | Buckley | $9,400 | ||||
Rivera | AlQaisi | $8,900 | ||||
Tucker | Jaynes | $8,400 | ||||
Means | Staropoli | $7,900 | to | Staropoli | Means | $8,300 |
Stoliarenko | Kunitskaya | $7,400 | ||||
Pitolo | Stewart | $7,600 | to | Stewart | Pitolo | $8,600 |
Total Salary | $49,600 | Pivot Salary | $50,000 | |||
DK Example Cash | Pivot | DK Example Cash Pivot | ||||
Fighter | Opp | Salary | Fighter | Opp | Salary | |
Haqparast | Munoz | $9,000 | to | Zalal | Barrett | $9,300 |
Kunitskaya | Stoliarenko | $8,800 | ||||
Sanchez | Turman | $7,700 | ||||
Oleinik | Lewis | $7,500 | ||||
Stewart | Pitolo | $8,600 | ||||
Weidman | Akhmedov | $8,000 | to | Akhmedov | Weidman | $8,200 |
Total Salary | $49,600 | Pivot Salary | $50,000 |
Example Lineups:
Vegas Plays:
Favorite Bets: Oleinik +170, Haqparast -240, Tucker -125
Favorite Props: Sanchez via DEC +190, Stewart ITD +166
Long Shot: Kunitskaya ITD +420
Live Dogs: Oleinik, Akhmedov, Holtzman, Means, Jaynes
Stats & Picks:
Derrick Lewis | vs | Aleksei Oleinik |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
Record: 23-7-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 59-13-1 |
18 KO/TKO (78%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (14%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (4%) | Subs | 46 SUBMISSIONS (78%) |
-178 | Vegas Odds | +167 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Omari Akhmedov | vs | Chris Weidman |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
Record: 20-4-1 | Record | Record: 14-5-0 |
0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (35%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (25%) |
+127 | Vegas Odds | 235 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Maki Pitolo | vs | Darren Stewart |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
Record: 13-5-0 | Record | Record: 11-5-0 (1 NC) |
7 KO/TKO (64%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (43%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (29%) |
+132 | Vegas Odds | -142 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
Yana Kunitskaya | vs | Julija Stoliarenko |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
Record: 12-5-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 9-4-1 |
0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (54%) |
8 SUBMISSIONS (89%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (23%) |
-178 | Vegas Odds | +167 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Beneil Dariush | vs | Scott Holtzman |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
Record: 18-4-1 | Record | Record: 14-3-0 |
7 KO/TKO (58%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (22%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) | Subs | 8 SUBMISSIONS (44%) |
-185 | Vegas Odds | +170 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Tim Means | vs | Laureano Staropoli |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
Record: 29-12-1 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 9-2-0 |
5 KO/TKO (36%) | Knockouts | 19 KO/TKO (66%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (14%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (17%) |
+127 | Vegas Odds | -137 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Kevin Holland | vs | Joaquin Buckley |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
Record: 17-5-0 | Record | Record: 10-2-0 |
5 KO/TKO (56%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (47%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (22%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (35%) |
-420 | Vegas Odds | +375 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Nasrat Haqparast | vs | Alexander Munoz |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
Record: 11-3-0 | Record | Record: 6-0-0 |
7 KO/TKO (70%) | Knockouts | 9 KO/TKO (82%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
-235 | Vegas Odds | +215 |
8/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 |
Andrew Sanchez | vs | Wellington Turman |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
Record: 12-5-0 | Record | Record: 16-3-0 |
2 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (45%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (17%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (18%) |
+130 | Vegas Odds | -140 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Gavin Tucker | vs | Justin Jaynes |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
Record: 11-1-0 | Record | Record: 16-4-0 |
8 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (25%) |
5 SUBMISSIONS (31%) | Subs | 7 SUBMISSIONS (44%) |
-117 | Vegas Odds | +107 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Youssef Zalal | vs | Peter Barrett |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
Record: 9-2-0 | Record | Record: 11-3-0 |
7 KO/TKO (64%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (36%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (18%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (45%) |
-450 | Vegas Odds | +400 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Irwin Rivera | vs | Ali AlQaisi |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
Record: 9-5-0 | Record | Record: 8-3-0 |
2 KO/TKO (22%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (56%) |
5 SUBMISSIONS (56%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (11%) |
-172 | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |