We’re making our last night on Fight Island count with an enormous fight card. The pricing is whacky as ever with Khamzat Chimaev breaking the bank at $9800. There’s never been a better opportunity to have a unique lineup and take down a tourney solo. 

 

Main Event
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Robert Whittaker vs Darren Till8300/7900-Stackability: Moderate-128/ +118+185/+230
This is an enormous discount on Whitaker given that we can’t be sure his chin isn’t shot. If it is, Till will crack it at some point. If not, Bobby Knuckles with soundly outwork Till. I’m taking the discount. Till has come up short almost every time he steps up in competition. Till’s slow pace also makes this not of much interest for a stack.
      
Expensive
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Khamzat Chimaev9800Rhys McKeeSafe-120-450
Chimaev gets an unheard of price after ragdolling John Phillips ten days ago. The challenge at this price is the hit 12x value while also allowing room to get that across your other five spots. His ownership could pass 50% even at the price.
Movsar Evloev9100Mike GrundySomewhat-Safe-185+347
Evloev is the better wrestler and the busier fighter here. Grundy is big for the weight and has some dangerous power but maybe not the technique to make that work against Evloev. I’m also interested to see what he does when Evloev puts him in trouble with some BJJ.
Nathaniel Wood9500John CastanedaModerate-380-125
Wood is a much better fighter in all arenas the Casteneda with plenty of finishing ability. His only drawback is a propensity to stay on the centerline at times and get hit. His chin is showing the wear from it a bit. He’s a tough kid, though.
Alexander Gustafsson9300Fabricio WerdumSomewhat-Risky-300+130
We get the debut of HW Gus against fellow old man Werdum. If Gus can keep it standing he should toast Werdum. That’s no given, however.
Ramazan Emeev9400Niklas StolzeSomewhat-Risky-385+325
Emeev probably pushes Stolze against the fence for three rounds of clinch game dominance. Not an exciting style but effective. Also not enough for the DK price.
Mauricio Rua9000Rogerio NogueiraRisky-190+120
Shogun looks to go 3-0 against fellow Brazilian legend little Nog. That’s not a hard win to claim these days with how limited Nog is at 44. You just need to watch out for a heavy counter shot.
      
Mid-Range
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Tom Aspinall8800Jake CollierSomewhat-Safe-280-125
Aspinall is a decent HW prospect with decent grappling and some heavy hands. Collier is coming in very heavy and out of shape. The fight probably doesn’t see a second round.
Francisco Trinaldo8500Jai HerbertSomewhat-Risky-125+225
I was higher on Trinaldo before he missed weight. He’s a legend and not someone to trifle with. I still feel like he gets his act together in the ring but it’s closer after the tough cut.
Alex Oliveira8700Peter SobottaSomewhat-Risky-157+175
Cowboy comes in and does Cowboy things for better or worse. Sobotta is likely outgunned here if Oliveira can avoid the big mistake that has cost him prior fights. Still, $8700 is a big price tag.
Marina Rodriguez8600Carla EsparzaSomewhat-Risky-172+317
Marina’s length is going to be a big challenge to solve for Esparza. On top of that, Marina pushes forwarded constantly. We’re still waiting for her to fix that takedown defense. Maybe it’ll click this fight.
Tanner Boser8900Raphael PessoaSomewhat-Risky-275+210
I’m coming around on Boser. He’s gotten into better shape and coming out of his shell to take slightly more calculated risks. That resulted in a KO win his last fight out. Pessoa will give him plenty of openings.
Pannie Kianzad8400Bethe CorreiaRisky-150+455
Kianzad could show she’s taken a big step up here. Correia is a vet who doesn’t wilt easily. It’s a close fight. The younger lady could be the hungrier fighter here.
Gadzhimurad Antigulov8200Paul CraigRisky+122+178
There’s not much analysis needed in this one. Antigulov comes out with lots of pressure and either gets it done or goes belly up. Craig cannot handle pressure well.
Paul Craig8000Gadzhimurad AntigulovRisky-132+105
Craig is tough, however. If he can show the ref enough to stay in the fight Antigulov will be out of bullets. Craig can get to work with some long kicks.
      
Pay-Downs
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Jai Herbert7700Francisco TrinaldoSomewhat-Risky+115+470
We finally get a look at British prospect Jai Herbert. He’s a dangerous striker. Trinaldo is a very stiff first test. He’ll need to avoid getting tied up and stay busy.
Fabricio Werdum6900Alexander GustafssonSomewhat-Risky+270+480
Werdum will always be able to grapple. Gustafsson has shown some definite weakness when put on his back. It’s a worthwhile gamble in a lineup of two at the price.
Peter Sobotta7500Alex OliveiraSomewhat-Risky+147+290
Sobotta’s path to victory is fighting tight until Oliveira makes a mistake. That happens plenty of the time. Peter’s especially live for a submission.
Mike Grundy7100Movsar EvloevRisky+170+425
Grundy is very big for the weight and packs a punch. If he’s able to shutdown Evloev’s wrestling he could find a home for a heavy hook. It’ll probably take a finish to win, though.
Carla Esparza7600Marina RodriguezRisky+162+140
Esparza’s MMA game is focused solely on out grappling opponents. That’s given Rodriguez a good amount of trouble in her two UFC losses. A boring, hold her opponent down fight could be incoming.
Rogerio Nogueira7200Mauricio RuaRisky235+235
The only way little Nog wins this one is a KO. Rua is more hittable than ever and his brain is likely damaged from years of wars.
Raphael Pessoa7300Tanner BoserRisky+250+458
Pessoa’s size is his real advantage. If you get in his range for long enough he will wing bombs. There’s always a puncher’s chance.
Jesse Ronson7000Nicolas DalbyRisky+225+465
Ronson is live for a knockout here. Dalby has to fight at a heavy pace and that leads to him getting hit more than he’d like. It will be a close fight. Ronson tends to lose close decisions time and time again, though.
Bethe Correia7800Pannie KianzadRisky+140+800
I’d like Correia more at a lower price tag. She can win a close fight. It will be hard to break 70 points.
John Castaneda6700Nathaniel WoodRisky+340+750
Castaneda could pull a huge upset if he’s able to turn this into a brawl. Wood certainly hasn’t been immune to that when his opponent takes the fight to him.

 

Cash Plays

(Sample lineup)

GPP Plays

(Sample lineup)

Best Bets

Favorite Bets: Whittaker -132, Aspinall -240, Boser -270

Favorite Props: Antigulov ITD +178, Correia via DEC +177

Long Shot: Werdum ITD +480

Live Dogs: Werdum, Sobotta, Nogueira, Herbert, Grundy, Correia, Ronson, Castaneda

 

Stats & Picks

 

   
Robert WhittakervsDarren Till
$8,300DFS Salary$7,900
Record: 21-5-0RecordRecord: 18-2-1
9 KO/TKO (45%)Knockouts10 KO/TKO (56%)
5 SUBMISSIONS (25%)Subs2 SUBMISSIONS (11%)
-128Vegas Odds+118
7/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Mauricio RuavsRogerio Nogueira
$9,000DFS Salary$7,200
Record: 26-11-1RecordRecord: 23-9-0
21 KO/TKO (81%)Knockouts8 KO/TKO (35%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (4%)Subs6 SUBMISSIONS (26%)
-190Vegas Odds235
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Fabricio WerdumvsAlexander Gustafsson
$6,900DFS Salary$9,300
Record: 23-9-1RecordRecord: 18-6-0
6 KO/TKO (26%)Knockouts 
11 SUBMISSIONS (48%)Subs 
+270Vegas Odds-300
5/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Carla EsparzavsMarina Rodriguez
$7,600DFS Salary$8,600
Record: 17-6-0RecordRecord: 12-0-2
3 KO/TKO (19%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (42%)
4 SUBMISSIONS (25%)Subs1 SUBMISSIONS (8%)
+162Vegas Odds-172
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Paul CraigvsGadzhimurad Antigulov
$8,000DFS Salary$8,200
Record: 12-4-1RecordRecord: 20-6-0
1 KO/TKO (8%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (20%)
11 SUBMISSIONS (92%)Subs15 SUBMISSIONS (75%)
-132Vegas Odds+122
3/10Lineup Pool7/10
   
Alex OliveiravsPeter Sobotta
$8,700DFS Salary$7,500
Record: 20-8-1 (2 NC)RecordRecord: 17-6-1
12 KO/TKO (57%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (29%)
5 SUBMISSIONS (24%)Subs10 SUBMISSIONS (59%)
-157Vegas Odds+147
4/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Khamzat ChimaevvsRhys McKee
$9,800DFS Salary$6,400
Record: 7-0-0RecordRecord: 10-2-1
 Knockouts7 KO/TKO (70%)
 Subs3 SUBMISSIONS (30%)
-120Vegas Odds+850
8/10Lineup Pool0/10
   
Francisco TrinaldovsJai Herbert
$8,500DFS Salary$7,700
Record: 25-7-0RecordRecord: 10-1-0
 Knockouts8 KO/TKO (80%)
 Subs1 SUBMISSIONS (10%)
-125Vegas Odds+115
5/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Nicolas DalbyvsJesse Ronson
$9,200DFS Salary$7,000
Record: 18-3-1 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 21-10-0
6 KO/TKO (33%)Knockouts10 KO/TKO (48%)
4 SUBMISSIONS (22%)Subs7 SUBMISSIONS (33%)
-245Vegas Odds+225
5/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Tom AspinallvsJake Collier
$8,800DFS Salary$7,400
Record: 7-2-0RecordRecord: 11-4-0
5 KO/TKO (71%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (45%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (29%)Subs3 SUBMISSIONS (27%)
-280Vegas Odds+255
8/10Lineup Pool1/10
   
Movsar EvloevvsMike Grundy
$9,100DFS Salary$7,100
Record: 12-0-0RecordRecord: 12-1-0
3 KO/TKO (25%)Knockouts1 KO/TKO (8%)
4 SUBMISSIONS (33%)Subs8 SUBMISSIONS (67%)
-185Vegas Odds+170
6/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Tanner BoservsRaphael Pessoa
$8,900DFS Salary$7,300
Record: 18-6-1RecordRecord: 10-1-0
9 KO/TKO (50%)Knockouts6 KO/TKO (60%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (11%)Subs1 SUBMISSIONS (10%)
-275Vegas Odds+250
7/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
Bethe CorreiavsPannie Kianzad
$7,800DFS Salary$8,400
Record: 11-4-1RecordRecord: 13-5-0
2 KO/TKO (18%)Knockouts3 KO/TKO (25%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
+140Vegas Odds-150
4/10Lineup Pool4/10