MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs Burns
Published: May 30, 2020
The UFC returns home to Las Vegas and the APEX Fight Center. Assuming they don’t swap out the cage they use on Contender Series here it will be a small Octagon (25’ down from 30’). That typically leads to more finishes as there’s less space to run. That can also mean pretty high DK scores with multiple fighters breaking 100 points. Don’t put all your eggs in one basket this week. It could be a funky lineup that wins GPPs.
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Tyron Woodley vs Gilbert Burns | 8800/7400 | - | Stackability: Risky | -155/ +145 | +155/+280 |
This is an intriguing match up, if not the most exciting bell to bell fight. Woodley’s style is best described as methodical. Burns is a bit more aggressive. I see this being similar to Burns’ win over Alexi Kunchenko. If he can avoid Woodley throwing that chopping overhand that’s won him so many fights. Add to it that Woodley is now 38 and gets over-rated a bit as a former Champ (albeit one without any great title defenses) and it equals a lean towards Burns for me. Do not stack in cash. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Roosevelt Roberts | 9200 | Brok Weaver | Safe | -335 | +155 |
Roberts is a much more refined product than Weaver. He’s long with smooth striking and a nasty guillotine. That’s more than enough to take care of the game but flawed Weaver. The main risk here is a low-scoring decision. | |||||
Casey Kenney | 9100 | Louis Smolka | Somewhat-Safe | -265 | +380 |
Kenney is a gritty grappling based fighter. Smolka has been dominated in similar fashion. The potential for lots of grappling points is too tasty to pass up as a core play. | |||||
Mackenzie Dern | 9300 | Hannah Cifers | Moderate | -405 | -175 |
This is a pretty big price tag for a fighter in Dern that has some holes in her MMA game. It’s based on her ability to takedown and submit Cifers, who hasn’t been able to wrestle a lick in the UFC. | |||||
Tim Elliott | 8700 | Brandon Royval | Moderate | -150 | +245 |
We’re still chasing Elliot’s epic, slate breaking, 176 back in 2017. He has the wrestling skill set repeat it and an opponent who has takedown struggles. That usual makes his ownership too high to make it worthwhile for the mediocre fighter Elliot is today. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Billy Quarantillo | 8600 | Spike Carlyle | Somewhat-Safe | -120 | +170 |
Billy Q has to survive the early onslaught from Carlyle. If he does Spike is going to gas hard and become a sitting duck. A 100+ at $8600 is a must have. It comes with risk, though. | |||||
Jamahal Hill | 8400 | Klidson Abreu | Moderate | -115 | +535 |
Hill has nasty striking that will find a home early. The question is whether Abreu can stand up to it through two rounds. I’m thinking he gives a good showing but doesn’t see the third bell. | |||||
Chris Gutierrez | 8300 | Vince Morales | Somewhat-Risky | -115 | +575 |
This is sort of brawler vs boxer. Gutierrez has the kicks to punish Morales and win the striking affair if he can avoid the heavy right hand coming back. | |||||
Antonina Shevchenko | 8500 | Katlyn Chookagian | Somewhat-Risky | -130 | +875 |
The Shevchenko’s think they have Chookagian figured out. Antonina isn’t Valentian, however. It’s going to be a close fight and Chook tends to win close decisions. | |||||
Blagoy Ivanov | 8000 | Augusto Sakai | Somewhat-Risky | +100 | +325 |
The week’s toss up fight is a tough one to call. Ivanov isn’t really worthwhile in DFS even in a win. | |||||
Augusto Sakai | 8200 | Blagoy Ivanov | Somewhat-Risky | -110 | +320 |
The spot that could pay off here is the much busier Sakai. He can pick at the smaller Ivanov from range and has the power to hurt him if he doesn’t get punished by counters. There’s also a chance Ivanov’s chin shows it’s cracks after years of punishment. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Daniel Rodriguez | 7300 | Gabe Green | Moderate | +180 | +180 |
DRod is the week’s free square. There’s too much of a chance he scores 90-100 points to fade him even at 60+% ownership. There’s even a case to stack the fight in cash. | |||||
Katlyn Chookagian | 7700 | Antonina Shevchenko | Somewhat-Risky | +120 | +575 |
Chook is known for tennis sounds and moving away from opponents. That’s a solid recipe to beat Antonina. It’s not a great play on DK at a slow pace, though. | |||||
Spike Carlyle | 7600 | Billy Quarantillo | Somewhat-Risky | +110 | +295 |
The Alpha Ginger is built to come out fast and win early. That’s been doable on the regional scene and even against fellow prospect Alon Cruz. You’d expect Quarantillo to be better prepared for it, though. | |||||
Brandon Royval | 7500 | Tim Elliott | Somewhat-Risky | +140 | +260 |
Royval throws fire and relies on a creative guard off his back. That’s an intriguing mix against Elliott. It’s lined right but if you need a dog. | |||||
Klidson Abreu | 7800 | Jamahal Hill | Somewhat-Risky | +105 | +185 |
Abreu’s path is surviving the early punishment and getting a takedown to expose the rawer part of Hill’s game. | |||||
Brok Weaver | 7000 | Roosevelt Roberts | Risky | +305 | +700 |
Weaver would have to make it a dog fight and find a KO to win this one. | |||||
Louis Smolka | 7100 | Casey Kenney | Risky | +245 | +445 |
Smolka is dangerous off his back and in scrambles. There should be plenty of that in this fight. | |||||
Vince Morales | 7900 | Chris Gutierrez | Risky | +105 | +380 |
Morales looks to hurt his opponent with heavy punches. A right-hand could find a home if Gutierrez isn’t careful with his low kicks. |
Cash Plays
(Sample lineup)
GPP Plays
(Sample lineup)
Best Bets
Favorite Bets: Roberts -345, Kenney -260, Gutierrez -105
Favorite Props: Quarantillo ITD +170, Rodriguez ITD +187
Long Shot: Hill ITD +473
Live Dogs: Burns, Chookagian, Carlyle, Royval, Abreu, Morales
Stats & Picks
Tyron Woodley | vs | Gilbert Burns |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
Record: 19-4-1 | Record | Record: 18-3-0 |
Knockouts | ||
Subs | ||
-152 | Vegas Odds | +142 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
Blagoy Ivanov | vs | Augusto Sakai |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
Record: 18-3-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 14-1-1 |
Knockouts | ||
Subs | ||
+100 | Vegas Odds | -110 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Billy Quarantillo | vs | Spike Carlyle |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
Record: 13-2-0 | Record | Record: 9-1-0 |
Knockouts | ||
Subs | ||
-125 | Vegas Odds | +115 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Roosevelt Roberts | vs | Brok Weaver |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
Record: 9-1-0 | Record | Record: 15-4-0 |
Knockouts | ||
Subs | ||
-345 | Vegas Odds | +315 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Mackenzie Dern | vs | Hannah Cifers |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
Record: 7-1-0 | Record | Record: 10-4-0 |
Knockouts | ||
Subs | ||
-400 | Vegas Odds | +355 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 |
Katlyn Chookagian | vs | Antonina Shevchenko |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
Record: 13-3-0 | Record | Record: 8-1-0 |
Knockouts | ||
Subs | ||
+115 | Vegas Odds | -125 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Daniel Rodriguez | vs | Gabe Green |
$7,300 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
Record: 11-1-0 | Record | Record: 9-2-0 |
Knockouts | ||
Subs | ||
-315 | Vegas Odds | +285 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Jamahal Hill | vs | Klidson Abreu |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
Record: 7-0-0 | Record | Record: 15-4-0 |
Knockouts | ||
Subs | ||
-112 | Vegas Odds | +102 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Tim Elliott | vs | Brandon Royval |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
Record: 16-10-1 | Record | Record: 10-4-0 |
Knockouts | ||
Subs | ||
-160 | Vegas Odds | +150 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Louis Smolka | vs | Casey Kenney |
$7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
Record: 16-6-0 | Record | Record: 13-2-1 |
Knockouts | ||
Subs | ||
+240 | Vegas Odds | -260 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
Chris Gutierrez | vs | Vince Morales |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
Record: 14-3-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 9-4-0 |
Knockouts | ||
Subs | ||
-105 | Vegas Odds | -105 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |