The UFC returns home to Las Vegas and the APEX Fight Center. Assuming they don’t swap out the cage they use on Contender Series here it will be a small Octagon (25’ down from 30’). That typically leads to more finishes as there’s less space to run. That can also mean pretty high DK scores with multiple fighters breaking 100 points. Don’t put all your eggs in one basket this week. It could be a funky lineup that wins GPPs.

 

Main Event
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Tyron Woodley vs Gilbert Burns8800/7400-Stackability: Risky-155/ +145+155/+280
This is an intriguing match up, if not the most exciting bell to bell fight. Woodley’s style is best described as methodical. Burns is a bit more aggressive. I see this being similar to Burns’ win over Alexi Kunchenko. If he can avoid Woodley throwing that chopping overhand that’s won him so many fights. Add to it that Woodley is now 38 and gets over-rated a bit as a former Champ (albeit one without any great title defenses) and it equals a lean towards Burns for me. Do not stack in cash.
      
Expensive
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Roosevelt Roberts9200Brok WeaverSafe-335+155
Roberts is a much more refined product than Weaver. He’s long with smooth striking and a nasty guillotine. That’s more than enough to take care of the game but flawed Weaver. The main risk here is a low-scoring decision.
Casey Kenney9100Louis SmolkaSomewhat-Safe-265+380
Kenney is a gritty grappling based fighter. Smolka has been dominated in similar fashion. The potential for lots of grappling points is too tasty to pass up as a core play.
Mackenzie Dern9300Hannah CifersModerate-405-175
This is a pretty big price tag for a fighter in Dern that has some holes in her MMA game. It’s based on her ability to takedown and submit Cifers, who hasn’t been able to wrestle a lick in the UFC.
Tim Elliott8700Brandon RoyvalModerate-150+245
We’re still chasing Elliot’s epic, slate breaking, 176 back in 2017. He has the wrestling skill set repeat it and an opponent who has takedown struggles. That usual makes his ownership too high to make it worthwhile for the mediocre fighter Elliot is today.
      
Mid-Range
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Billy Quarantillo8600Spike CarlyleSomewhat-Safe-120+170
Billy Q has to survive the early onslaught from Carlyle. If he does Spike is going to gas hard and become a sitting duck. A 100+ at $8600 is a must have. It comes with risk, though.
Jamahal Hill8400Klidson AbreuModerate-115+535
Hill has nasty striking that will find a home early. The question is whether Abreu can stand up to it through two rounds. I’m thinking he gives a good showing but doesn’t see the third bell.
Chris Gutierrez8300Vince MoralesSomewhat-Risky-115+575
This is sort of brawler vs boxer. Gutierrez has the kicks to punish Morales and win the striking affair if he can avoid the heavy right hand coming back.
Antonina Shevchenko8500Katlyn ChookagianSomewhat-Risky-130+875
The Shevchenko’s think they have Chookagian figured out. Antonina isn’t Valentian, however. It’s going to be a close fight and Chook tends to win close decisions.
Blagoy Ivanov8000Augusto SakaiSomewhat-Risky+100+325
The week’s toss up fight is a tough one to call. Ivanov isn’t really worthwhile in DFS even in a win.
Augusto Sakai8200Blagoy IvanovSomewhat-Risky-110+320
The spot that could pay off here is the much busier Sakai. He can pick at the smaller Ivanov from range and has the power to hurt him if he doesn’t get punished by counters. There’s also a chance Ivanov’s chin shows it’s cracks after years of punishment.
      
Pay-Downs
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Daniel Rodriguez7300Gabe GreenModerate+180+180
DRod is the week’s free square. There’s too much of a chance he scores 90-100 points to fade him even at 60+% ownership. There’s even a case to stack the fight in cash.
Katlyn Chookagian7700Antonina ShevchenkoSomewhat-Risky+120+575
Chook is known for tennis sounds and moving away from opponents. That’s a solid recipe to beat Antonina. It’s not a great play on DK at a slow pace, though.
Spike Carlyle7600Billy QuarantilloSomewhat-Risky+110+295
The Alpha Ginger is built to come out fast and win early. That’s been doable on the regional scene and even against fellow prospect Alon Cruz. You’d expect Quarantillo to be better prepared for it, though.
Brandon Royval7500Tim ElliottSomewhat-Risky+140+260
Royval throws fire and relies on a creative guard off his back. That’s an intriguing mix against Elliott. It’s lined right but if you need a dog.
Klidson Abreu7800Jamahal HillSomewhat-Risky+105+185
Abreu’s path is surviving the early punishment and getting a takedown to expose the rawer part of Hill’s game.
Brok Weaver7000Roosevelt RobertsRisky+305+700
Weaver would have to make it a dog fight and find a KO to win this one.
Louis Smolka7100Casey KenneyRisky+245+445
Smolka is dangerous off his back and in scrambles. There should be plenty of that in this fight.
Vince Morales7900Chris GutierrezRisky+105+380
Morales looks to hurt his opponent with heavy punches. A right-hand could find a home if Gutierrez isn’t careful with his low kicks.

 

 

Cash Plays

(Sample lineup)

GPP Plays

(Sample lineup)

Best Bets

Favorite Bets: Roberts -345, Kenney -260, Gutierrez -105

Favorite Props: Quarantillo ITD +170, Rodriguez ITD +187

Long Shot: Hill ITD +473

Live Dogs: Burns, Chookagian, Carlyle, Royval, Abreu, Morales

 

Stats & Picks

 

   
Tyron WoodleyvsGilbert Burns
$8,800DFS Salary$7,400
Record: 19-4-1RecordRecord: 18-3-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-152Vegas Odds+142
3/10Lineup Pool6/10
   
Blagoy IvanovvsAugusto Sakai
$8,000DFS Salary$8,200
Record: 18-3-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 14-1-1
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
+100Vegas Odds-110
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Billy QuarantillovsSpike Carlyle
$8,600DFS Salary$7,600
Record: 13-2-0RecordRecord: 9-1-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-125Vegas Odds+115
5/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Roosevelt RobertsvsBrok Weaver
$9,200DFS Salary$7,000
Record: 9-1-0RecordRecord: 15-4-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-345Vegas Odds+315
6/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Mackenzie DernvsHannah Cifers
$9,300DFS Salary$6,900
Record: 7-1-0RecordRecord: 10-4-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-400Vegas Odds+355
6/10Lineup Pool1/10
   
Katlyn ChookagianvsAntonina Shevchenko
$7,700DFS Salary$8,500
Record: 13-3-0RecordRecord: 8-1-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
+115Vegas Odds-125
5/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Daniel RodriguezvsGabe Green
$7,300DFS Salary$6,800
Record: 11-1-0RecordRecord: 9-2-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-315Vegas Odds+285
7/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Jamahal HillvsKlidson Abreu
$8,400DFS Salary$7,800
Record: 7-0-0RecordRecord: 15-4-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-112Vegas Odds+102
5/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Tim ElliottvsBrandon Royval
$8,700DFS Salary$7,500
Record: 16-10-1RecordRecord: 10-4-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-160Vegas Odds+150
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Louis SmolkavsCasey Kenney
$7,100DFS Salary$9,100
Record: 16-6-0RecordRecord: 13-2-1
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
+240Vegas Odds-260
3/10Lineup Pool6/10
   
Chris GutierrezvsVince Morales
$8,300DFS Salary$7,900
Record: 14-3-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 9-4-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-105Vegas Odds-105
4/10Lineup Pool3/10