This card is a polar opposite to last week’s big names and huge lines. We’re back to ESPN+ so it’s a bit lackluster and almost every dog has an avenue to an upset. There are compelling fights, as well as some exciting fighters, though. I like to hammer the mid-range in a week like this. The ownership on de Randamie will be huge. It’s an excellent leverage opportunity on Ladd.
| | Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Main Event | Germaine de Randamie vs Aspen Ladd | 7300/8900 | - | Stackability: Safe | 140/ -150 | 272/142 |
|
| | | | | | | |
Expensive | Ricky Simon | 9300 | Urijah Faber | Safe | -345 | +321 |
| Julianna Pena | 9000 | Nicco Montano | Somewhat-Safe | -185 | +294 |
| Mike Rodriguez | 9400 | John Allan | Moderate | -410 | -170 |
| Karl Roberson | 9100 | Wellington Turman | Moderate | -200 | +125 |
| | | | | | | |
Mid-Range | Mirsad Bektic | 8800 | Josh Emmett | Somewhat-Safe | -155 | +217 |
| Ryan Hall | 8300 | Darren Elkins | Moderate | -110 | +165 |
| Liu Pingyuan | 8700 | Jonathan Martinez | Moderate | -140 | +365 |
| Livinha Souza | 8000 | Brianna Van Buren | Somewhat-Risky | +110 | +437 |
| Sheymon Moraes | 8400 | Andre Fili | Somewhat-Risky | -110 | +352 |
| Marvin Vettori | 8600 | Cezar Ferreira | Somewhat-Risky | -140 | +245 |
| Brianna Van Buren | 8200 | Livinha Souza | Risky | -120 | +450 |
| | | | | | | |
Pay-Downs | Benito Lopez | 7700 | Vince Morales | Moderate | +125 | +510 |
| Cezar Ferreira | 7600 | Marvin Vettori | Moderate | +130 | +410 |
| Andre Fili | 7800 | Sheymon Moraes | Somewhat-Risky | +100 | +455 |
| Jonathan Martinez | 7500 | Liu Pingyuan | Somewhat-Risky | +130 | +450 |
| Josh Emmett | 7400 | Mirsad Bektic | Risky | +145 | +320 |
| John Allan | 6800 | Mike Rodriguez | Risky | +365 | +540 |
| Wellington Turman | 7100 | Karl Roberson | Risky | +185 | +258 |
| Darren Elkins | 7900 | Ryan Hall | High Risk | +100 | +330 |
Cash Plays: Ladd/GdM, Simon, Pena, Bektic
(Sample lineup)
GPP Plays: Ladd, Souza, Hall, Lopez, Fili, Ferreira/Vettori, any $6K dog
(Sample lineup)
Favorite Bets: Souza +110, Lopez +120, Ladd -150 (still dropping so you could wait for a better line), Bektic -155
Favorite Props: Ferreira ITD +410
Live Dogs: de Randamie, Lopez, Ferreira, Fili, Souza, Emmett
Stats & Picks:
| Germaine de Randamie | vs | Aspen Ladd |
| $7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
| Record: 8-3-0 | Record | Record: 8-0-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (38%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (63%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (13%) |
| +140 | Vegas Odds | -150 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| | | |
| Urijah Faber | vs | Ricky Simon |
| $6,900 | DFS Salary | $9,300 |
| Record: 34-10-0 | Record | Record: 15-1-0 |
| 9 KO/TKO (26%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (33%) |
| 17 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (13%) |
| +315 | Vegas Odds | -345 |
| 2/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| | | |
| Josh Emmett | vs | Mirsad Bektic |
| $7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 14-2-0 | Record | Record: 13-1-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (36%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (46%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (14%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (23%) |
| +145 | Vegas Odds | -155 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| | | |
| Karl Roberson | vs | Wellington Turman |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 7-2-0 | Record | Record: 15-2-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (29%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (27%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (43%) | Subs | 7 SUBMISSIONS (47%) |
| -200 | Vegas Odds | +185 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| | | |
| Marvin Vettori | vs | Cezar Ferreira |
| $8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 12-4-1 | Record | Record: 14-7-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (17%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (23%) |
| 8 SUBMISSIONS (67%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (31%) |
| -140 | Vegas Odds | +130 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| | | |
| Mike Rodriguez | vs | John Allan |
| $9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 10-3-0 | Record | Record: 13-5-0 |
| 8 KO/TKO (80%) | Knockouts | 9 KO/TKO (69%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (20%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (23%) |
| -410 | Vegas Odds | +365 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| | | |
| Andre Fili | vs | Sheymon Moraes |
| $7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 19-6-0 | Record | Record: 11-3-0 |
| 8 KO/TKO (42%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (45%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (16%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| +100 | Vegas Odds | -110 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| | | |
| Julianna Pena | vs | Nicco Montano |
| $9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 9-3-0 | Record | Record: 5-2-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (38%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (50%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (38%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -185 | Vegas Odds | +160 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| | | |
| Darren Elkins | vs | Ryan Hall |
| $7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 25-7-0 | Record | Record: 7-1-0 |
| 8 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (29%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (17%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (43%) |
| +100 | Vegas Odds | -110 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| | | |
| Liu Pingyuan | vs | Jonathan Martinez |
| $8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 13-5-0 | Record | Record: 10-2-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (31%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (50%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (38%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (20%) |
| -140 | Vegas Odds | +130 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| | | |
| Livinha Souza | vs | Brianna Van Buren |
| $8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 13-1-0 | Record | Record: 8-2-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (15%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (25%) |
| 8 SUBMISSIONS (62%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (38%) |
| +110 | Vegas Odds | -120 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| | | |
| Benito Lopez | vs | Vince Morales |
| $7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 9-1-0 | Record | Record: 9-3-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (56%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (22%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (22%) |
| +125 | Vegas Odds | -135 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
