This card has taken some hits. Diego Sanchez pulled out when his CTE was muted enough for some brain clarity. Two fights have been scrapped on weigh in day. The remaining fights are the ones I was most excited for anyway, at least. There should be plenty of variance so feel free to get a little weird.
UPDATE: Tonight's fight between Amanda Ribas and Angela Hill has been CANCELLED. The card is now down to nine fights.
Main Event | ||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds |
Marina Rodriguez vs Michelle Waterson | 9200/7000 | - | Stackability: Safe | -210/ 175 |
This is a fun main event giving the short notice constraints. Both woman are angling to take one step closer to the top. Waterson has an edge based on her trip game, which could be a problem for the rangy Rodriguez. Marina is probably the more dangerous fighter, though. It should be safe to stack in cash. I like the Waterson side in GPPs for the possible grappling bump over five rounds. | ||||
Expensive | ||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds |
Ludovit Klein | 9400 | Michael Trizano | Somewhat-Safe | -245 |
Klein smoked out a very tough Shane Young in his debut. Trizano is a more nuanced striker with his karate style but he's probably going to get caught at some point. It all depends on what round at this price. | ||||
Geoff Neal | 9000 | Neil Magny | Moderate | -190 |
I like Neal to rebound here. Magny could grind on him but I see Neal's strength and punching power being able to answer that. It could be decent leverage after Neal lost to Stephen Thompson. | ||||
Marcos Rogerio de Lima | 9100 | Maurice Greene | Somewhat-Risky | -190 |
Marcos has literally alternated wins and loses his entire UFC career and it's time for the W. I don't actually buy into that but I do take away that he does not go the distance one way or the other. Either he can sub you, KO you, or he's out of gas in five minutes and a sitting duck. | ||||
Mid-Range | ||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds |
Tafon Nchukwi | 8500 | Junyong Park | Moderate | -140 |
For a guy as dangerous as Tafon is I love this price. UFC debuts can be lackluster and people are dinging Tafon for his. He still won busy fight. I'm pretty low on Park, as well. | ||||
Donald Cerrone | 8400 | Alex Morono | Somewhat-Risky | -190 |
Cowboy just does everything better than Morono. If he doesn't get KO'd he will out-pace and possibly out grapple Morono. Don't rule a finish out if Cowboy can land a high kick. | ||||
Gregor Gillespie | 8900 | Diego Ferreira | Somewhat-Risky | -160 |
It's hurts to pick against Gregor but this is a mad matchup. He will have the wrestling edge, as always, but CDF is a great scrambler and has world class BJJ. If Gregor can avoid the danger he'll rack up huge takedown number, though. | ||||
Kyle Daukaus | 8300 | Phil Hawes | Somewhat-Risky | -130 |
Daukaus is going to break through at some point. It could be here against Hawes, who tends to tire badly with his over-muscled frame. A finish at $8300 is a must have. | ||||
Carlston Harris | 8600 | Christian Aguilera | Somewhat-Risky | -155 |
Harris is a legit grappler and Aguilera is baaad on the ground. It's hairy taking a big stab on debutants but Harris has fought (and beat) guys that went on to the UFC. Not too mention Aguilera has a shot chin. | ||||
Amanda Ribas | 8800 | Angela Hill | Risky | -185 |
IF Ribas were to focus on the grappling I'd be much more interested. She had that same advantage over Marina Rodriguez and wasted it, however. Hill's achilles heel is her submission game. | ||||
Pay-Downs | ||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds |
Diego Ferreira | 7300 | Gregor Gillespie | Somewhat-Risky | 140 |
As a guy who's boxing just keeps getting better and better Ferreira is a very interesting dog. Gregor's striking is very wooden and he has some chin issues. Ferreira will get taken down but has the get up game, and BJJ, to weather some of that. | ||||
Phil Hawes | 7900 | Kyle Daukaus | Somewhat-Risky | 110 |
Hawes is still a KO or bust prop in my eyes, despite his last grinding win. And it's an early KO when it happens, so you can't ignore him. | ||||
Alex Morono | 7800 | Donald Cerrone | Somewhat-Risky | 165 |
Morono has been going more YOLO of late in the first round. That could be a problem for Cowboy, who gets hurt almost every fight and sometimes doesn't survive. | ||||
Neil Magny | 7200 | Geoff Neal | Risky | 165 |
Magny would likely win behind grappling, so he's worth mentioning. His range could also cause Neal some problems. | ||||
Angela Hill | 7400 | Amanda Ribas | Risky | 160 |
If Angie can pull the upset she'll likely be busy. Ribas' chin issue also resurfaced last fight. Hill isn't a huge puncher but she can be nasty in the clinch. | ||||
Maurice Greene | 7100 | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Risky | 165 |
If Greene weathers the early storm he's probably going to knock de Lima out in the second. That works at $7100. | ||||
Junyong Park | 7700 | Tafon Nchukwi | Risky | +120 |
I suppose Park could hold Tafon against the cage for long stretches and squeek out a win. I don't see it, though. I mention it since the betting market pushed the Park side. |
Draftkings Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Geoff Neal | $9,000 |
Ludovit Klein | $9,400 | |
Mid Tier | Tafon Nchukwi | $8,500 |
Donald Cerrone | $8,400 | |
Value Tier | Michelle Waterson | $7,000 |
Fanduel Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Geoff Neal | $20 |
Ludovit Klein | $23 | |
Mid Tier | Tafon Nchukwi | $17 |
Carlston Harris | $18 | |
Value Tier | Diego Ferreira | $10 |
Vegas Plays:
Favorite Bets: Waterson +175, Nchukwi -140
Favorite Props: Greene ITD +260,
Live Dogs: Waterson, Ferreira, Hill, Magny, Greene
Stats & Picks:
Marina Rodriguez | vs | Michelle Waterson |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
Record: 13-1-2 | Record | Record: 18-8-0 |
6 KO/TKO (46%) | Knockouts | |
1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) | Subs | |
-210 | Vegas Odds | 175 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Donald Cerrone | vs | Alex Morono |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
Record: 36-15-0 (2 NC) | Record | Record: 18-7-0 (1 NC) |
10 KO/TKO (28%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (28%) |
17 SUBMISSIONS (47%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (33%) |
-190 | Vegas Odds | 165 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Neil Magny | vs | Geoff Neal |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
Record: 24-9-0 | Record | Record: 13-3-0 |
7 KO/TKO (29%) | Knockouts | |
3 SUBMISSIONS (13%) | Subs | |
165 | Vegas Odds | -190 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Maurice Greene | vs | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
$7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
Record: 9-6-0 | Record | Record: 17-8-1 |
2 KO/TKO (22%) | Knockouts | 13 KO/TKO (76%) |
5 SUBMISSIONS (56%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (12%) |
165 | Vegas Odds | -190 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Diego Ferreira | vs | Gregor Gillespie |
$7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
Record: 17-3-0 | Record | Record: 13-1-0 |
3 KO/TKO (18%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (46%) |
7 SUBMISSIONS (41%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (38%) |
140 | Vegas Odds | -160 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 5/10 |
0 | ||
Phil Hawes | vs | Kyle Daukaus |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
Record: 10-2-0 | Record | Record: 10-1-0 |
7 KO/TKO (70%) | Knockouts | |
2 SUBMISSIONS (20%) | Subs | |
110 | Vegas Odds | -130 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Ludovit Klein | vs | Michael Trizano |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
Record: 17-2-0 | Record | Record: 9-1-0 |
8 KO/TKO (47%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (25%) |
8 SUBMISSIONS (47%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (25%) |
-245 | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Junyong Park | vs | Tafon Nchukwi |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
Record: 12-4-0 | Record | Record: 5-0-0 |
5 KO/TKO (42%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (80%) |
3 SUBMISSIONS (25%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
+120 | Vegas Odds | -140 |
2/10 | Lineup Pool | 8/10 |
Christian Aguilera | vs | Carlston Harris |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
Record: 14-7-0 | Record | Record: 15-4-0 |
11 KO/TKO (79%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (27%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (27%) |
135 | Vegas Odds | -155 |
2/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |