After the craziness that was Daytona last week, both from a weather and race perspective, we get a 1.5-mile track to grapple with this week. And yes, I said grapple. Kentucky isn’t your standard run of the mill intermediate track by any means and on top of that, it has perhaps the most challenging turn on an oval on the Cup schedule.

Kentucky Speedway has been hosting Cup series races since 2011 and then in 2016 underwent a reconfiguration and a repave that completely changed the track. After the reconfiguring Turns 1 & 2 are banked at 17 degrees and Turns 3 & 4 are tilted at 14 degrees and the first corners were narrowed to make more room on the apron for cars coming off pit road. The track will have traction compound on it once again which should make for more racing grooves and the nighttime start to the race, as we’ve seen this year, should allow for quite a bit of passing over the course of the 267 laps of the scheduled distance.

Starting Positions of Winners

Starting Pos.Races Won
13
22
81
91
161

The winningest position is the pole at Kentucky, though only one came since the repave, 2018. One of the pole wins was also based on qualifying spots being set by owner points in 2011 when the session was canceled due to weather.

There has been at least one driver to lead 100 or more laps in each of the last five races at the track and in three of the last five two drivers have led 50 or more.

 

Drivers To Watch This Week

Last Five Races at Kentucky Speedway

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Brad Keselowski53.81010-6.223444
Martin Truex Jr56.889.6-2.822335
Kyle Busch57.84.24.8314455
Denny Hamlin512.617.616-3.402234
Ryan Newman517.21513.83.402223
Kevin Harvick56.257.6-1.401555
Joey Logano581213.6-5.601444
Kurt Busch59.811.812.4-2.601344
Ryan Blaney39.31415.7-6.401222
Kyle Larson51716.221-401223
Chase Elliott31215.315.7-3.701122
Jimmie Johnson5152021-600233
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Erik Jones2896.51.500222
Aric Almirola41817.519.8-1.800123
Paul Menard51615.416000034
Clint Bowyer51816.218000023
Ricky Stenhouse Jr518.225.823.2-500022
Daniel Suarez2101416.5-6.500012
Bubba Wallace22120.519200011
Austin Dillon515.418.419.6-4.200003
William Byron1211920100001
David Ragan528.42422.65.800002
Michael McDowell22224.523.5-1.500000
Chris Buescher325.32525.3000001
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Ross Chastain1302828200000
Ty Dillon328.328.729-0.700000
Landon Cassill5343029.64.400000
Corey LaJoie1313131000000
BJ McLeod235.534.5323.500000
Alex Bowman326.33235.3-900000
Matt DiBenedetto435.334.335.5-0.200000
Daniel Hemric0000000000
Ryan Preece0000000000
Bayley Currey0000000000
Matt Tifft0000000000
Quin Houff0000000000

  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg. DriverLaps
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRatingComp.
Brad Keselowski537474.820741.481%112.51157
Martin Truex Jr537274.421943.875%114.71342
Kyle Busch530661.218637.298%123.91342
Denny Hamlin5132.6326.456%82.61102
Ryan Newman520.415348%83.11340
Kevin Harvick512825.68116.297%114.41342
Joey Logano57214.445972%93.61127
Kurt Busch555019076%88.51332
Ryan Blaney310.33411.367%94.7683
Kyle Larson5005110.263%851147
Chase Elliott30051.774%90.5751
Jimmie Johnson530.6163.249%76.61096
  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg. DriverLaps
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRatingComp.
Erik Jones200115.596%99.3541
Aric Almirola40092.352%79.2975
Paul Menard50030.657%79.21339
Clint Bowyer50061.253%75.61338
Ricky Stenhouse Jr50010216%55.91081
Daniel Suarez20052.563%78.4540
Bubba Wallace2000028%64.8537
Austin Dillon510.2214.235%71.31339
William Byron100009%65.3267
David Ragan520.40014%57.61331
Michael McDowell200213%53537
Chris Buescher30082.73%55.1631
  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg. DriverLaps
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRatingComp.
Ross Chastain100002%43.5263
Ty Dillon310.341.34%46.3780
Landon Cassill50010.21%43.31313
Corey LaJoie100000%38.8260
BJ McLeod200000%31.4516
Alex Bowman331628%41.7629
Matt DiBenedetto40010.30%36.1694
Daniel Hemric00000000
Ryan Preece00000000
Bayley Currey00000000
Matt Tifft00000000
Quin Houff00000000

Top-20 Drivers Over Last Eight Kentucky Races (entire track history)

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Brad Keselowski85.111.111.4-6.334666
Kyle Busch85.84.650.826788
Martin Truex Jr89.99.610.1-0.222558
Denny Hamlin812.315.816.1-3.803356
Ryan Newman814.515.315.1-0.603345
Joey Logano810.512.813.5-302566
Kevin Harvick89.57.69.40.101678
Kurt Busch811.612.512-0.401567
Jimmie Johnson810.51415.4-4.901566
Ryan Blaney39.31415.7-6.401222
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Kyle Larson51716.221-401223
Clint Bowyer816.415.818-1.601135
Chase Elliott31215.315.7-3.701122
Erik Jones2896.51.500222
Aric Almirola617.21920-2.800134
David Ragan827.623.8225.600113
Paul Menard816.117.418.3-2.200045
Ricky Stenhouse Jr617.324.822.2-4.900023
Daniel Suarez2101416.5-6.500012
Bubba Wallace22120.519200011

  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg. Driver
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRating
Brad Keselowski852165.1327934.8878%109.7
Kyle Busch854968.6329036.2596%124.4
Martin Truex Jr837346.6322528.1373%105.7
Denny Hamlin8769.5668.2560%88.4
Ryan Newman820.25182.2554%82.4
Joey Logano8729526.564%91.2
Kevin Harvick8128169011.2590%105.5
Kurt Busch8961240567%89.3
Jimmie Johnson820625.7513416.7568%95.1
Ryan Blaney310.333411.3367%94.7
  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg. Driver
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRating
Kyle Larson5005110.263%85
Clint Bowyer80016253%79.6
Chase Elliott30051.6774%90.5
Erik Jones200115.596%99.3
Aric Almirola60091.540%75.2
David Ragan850.6340.519%58.8
Paul Menard800101.2550%75.6
Ricky Stenhouse Jr600101.6715%58.1
Daniel Suarez20052.563%78.4
Bubba Wallace2000028%64.8

Top-20 Drivers at Similar Races (Kentucky, Las Vegas, Kansas)

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Martin Truex Jr208.17.87.70.4510131720
Brad Keselowski206.79.78.6-1.959161818
Kevin Harvick207.26.79.3-2.149151718
Kyle Busch187.36.27.20.1212151616
Joey Logano208.39.411.4-3.129151616
Chase Elliott1513.213.317.1-3.915799
Jimmie Johnson2016.315160.31471114
Ryan Blaney171110.912.9-1.906111213
Kyle Larson2015.713.916.8-1.106101213
Denny Hamlin209.81416.4-6.60681115
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Kurt Busch1910.111.412.9-2.804111315
Ryan Newman201715.716.40.60361113
Erik Jones1210.513.116.7-6.202688
Clint Bowyer202017.418.31.7013812
Austin Dillon2016.717.817.1-0.4013715
Alex Bowman1319.522.823.5-4.001347
Aric Almirola1919.118.117.71.40071113
Paul Menard2016.117.318.3-2.20031015
Daniel Suarez1115.118.919.4-4.300247
Chris Buescher1523.522.120.13.400248

  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg. Driver
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRating
Martin Truex Jr20110255.168534.384%113.3
Brad Keselowski207193649824.984%105.6
Kevin Harvick20104152.165632.890%119.1
Kyle Busch1860933.842523.694%113.1
Joey Logano2053526.828514.381%102
Chase Elliott15936.21248.373%92.5
Jimmie Johnson201587.923111.662%86.2
Ryan Blaney171518.918210.774%94.7
Kyle Larson201286.422311.267%90.8
Denny Hamlin20301.5773.966%84.5
  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg. Driver
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRating
Kurt Busch191417.4834.475%91.5
Ryan Newman20160.8341.754%78.2
Erik Jones1220.2746.279%88
Clint Bowyer20150.8281.446%71.9
Austin Dillon20110.6542.741%75.1
Alex Bowman13665.1796.140%65.4
Aric Almirola1900331.746%75.4
Paul Menard2070.4361.845%73.6
Daniel Suarez11121.1252.333%68.1
Chris Buescher15100.7181.214%61.3

Team Averages at Kentucky (Since Feb. 2017)

 Avg.  TopTop
DriverFinishRacesWins510
Chip Ganassi Racing8.754013
Wood Brothers Racing10.52001
Joe Gibbs Racing10.758034
Stewart-Haas Racing12.258014
Team Penske12.45024
Richard Petty Motorsports192000
Richard Childress Racing215000

Momentum

This week, and going forward, this section will be a tad different as it will show how the drivers and teams have done on this type of track over the entire 2019 season.

Drivers

Driver Momentum
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTopLapsFastLapsAvg. Driver
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520LedLapsComp.Rating
Brad Keselowski614.512.810.73.824445138107180797.8
Joey Logano616.811.310.26.61334511688186198.3
Martin Truex Jr619.210.28.510.7124561301531863100.8
Alex Bowman612.812.393.81235615999186394.9
Denny Hamlin68.711.811.7-3112467158186391.1
Clint Bowyer610.214.514.5-4.3033441545176683
Kevin Harvick68.378.8-0.5024663832091864115.1
Kurt Busch615.210.710.74.5024553156186094.5
Erik Jones614.516.512.32.2024553127148680.4
Jimmie Johnson68.71311-2.3024457038186187.5
Kyle Busch68.89.712.3-3.5024441591951860104.2
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTopLapsFastLapsAvg. Driver
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520LedLapsComp.Rating
Chase Elliott615.710105.70235612395186399.4
Ricky Stenhouse Jr612.511.811.31.2012461921186291.1
Kyle Larson618.314.317.70.60124414977159288.7
Daniel Suarez616.51514.32.2012352243186178.6
Aric Almirola616.21210.26003563941186488.4
William Byron6911.712.7-3.7003368047186387.7
Chris Buescher623.816.513.510.300336108186274.3
Austin Dillon66.516.319.3-12.8001241625177674.4
Ryan Blaney615.714.722-6.30012289104174689.2
Tyler Reddick12116912001110127178.1
Paul Menard615.716.517.8-2.100034019186070.5
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTopLapsFastLapsAvg. Driver
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520LedLapsComp.Rating
Ryan Newman618.816.717.31.50002415186068.1
David Ragan622.523.722.30.20001236185454.1
Corey LaJoie626.827.724.72.100011010184646.9
Michael McDowell618.323.825-6.70001218175253.9
Daniel Hemric611.72022.3-10.600003725184762.6
Bubba Wallace620.32625.8-5.50000003184849.9
Matt Tifft630.827.7264.80000111184144.8
Ty Dillon621.326.726.8-5.50000004182450.4
Ryan Preece62425.327.7-3.70000002174448.9
Parker Kligerman433.328.828.54.80000008130742.8
Matt DiBenedetto624.725.529.2-4.50000005149148.9
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTopLapsFastLapsAvg. Driver
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520LedLapsComp.Rating
Ross Chastain63331.23120000015156737.7
Josh Bilicki13634333000000125729.1
BJ McLeod53533.83320000006149132.2
Quin Houff33333.733.3-0.3000000075933.7
Landon Cassill633.23433.5-0.30000003149932.4
Reed Sorenson535.434.633.81.60000002147429.6
Bayley Currey43133.533.8-2.80000002108633.5
Garrett Smithley236.535.5342.5000000157927.5
Joey Gase338.737362.7000000160226.1
Cody Ware433.83736.5-2.7000000085227.2
Timmy Hill23938.538.50.5000000242525.4

Teams

Team Momentum
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTopLapsFast
Team#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520LedLaps
Team Penske1815.712.914.31.43781012343299
Joe Gibbs Racing2412.812.111.21.627141821391433
Hendrick Motorsports2411.611.810.70.916131723432279
Stewart-Haas Racing2412.812.112.00.906121821459338
Chip Ganassi Racing1216.812.514.22.603699180133
Roush Fenway Racing1215.714.314.31.40126102026
JTG Daugherty Racing1223.920.920.63.3003361010
Richard Childress Racing129.118.220.8-11.7001272350
Front Row Motorsports1823.925.124.4-0.600025515

DraftKings Scoring Averages

Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgDK Seas. Avg.
Kyle Busch5287.538.5122.2583.2569.7576.7064.28
Martin Truex Jr1221277715.525124.5073.3054.4
Kevin Harvick47.536.58143.53942.0049.5049.62
Joey Logano44.7542.75-3060.7546.2543.7532.9052.54
Brad Keselowski58-2472.7590145.2517.0068.4051.11
Chase Elliott3452.5-10  43.2525.5045.9
Kyle Larson5692.527-25-3074.2524.1035.62
Kurt Busch58.75-142.5392928.8833.6542.86
Denny Hamlin5144.52557.75-3647.7528.4537.71
Erik Jones3548.5   41.7541.7532.06
Clint Bowyer303423361032.0026.6029.66
Alex Bowman-15.75  13.55-15.750.9238.76
Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgDK Seas. Avg.
Ryan Blaney58.7534-9.5  46.3827.7538.16
Aric Almirola44 3032-11.544.0023.6334.78
Jimmie Johnson43.75-27-9.53353.58.3818.7532.72
Ryan Newman14295230.550.521.5035.2033.66
Ricky Stenhouse Jr9.534-1540.51521.7516.8025.87
Daniel Suarez2717.5   22.2522.2536.08
William Byron25    25.0025.0028.6
Chris Buescher20.535.54  28.0020.0028.84
Austin Dillon1531.532.2552823.2522.3523.2
Paul Menard2826.532282727.2528.3027.8
Matt DiBenedetto7243-0.5 15.508.3824.34
Michael McDowell2019   19.5019.5014.55
Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgDK Seas. Avg.
Ty Dillon15.5524.75  10.2515.0825.96
Daniel Hemric       20.1
Ryan Preece       23.4
Ross Chastain18    18.0018.0022.08
David Ragan322231.5331827.0027.3019.09
Bubba Wallace1539   27.0027.0018.51
Matt Tifft       19.78
Corey LaJoie13    13.0013.0022.32
Landon Cassill1127.515241719.2518.9015.78
BJ McLeod1417   15.5015.5015.9
Quin Houff       15.2
Bayley Currey       15

FanDuel Scoring Averages

Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgFD Seas. Avg.
Kyle Busch64.272.652.79077.868.4071.4663.88
Martin Truex Jr87.186.160.844.748.786.6065.4859.66
Kevin Harvick61.758.467.563.259.760.0562.1055.30
Joey Logano62.762.6-10.37058.962.6548.7861.83
Brad Keselowski69-3.677.765.989.632.7059.7257.07
Chase Elliott56.269.919.5  63.0548.5355.59
Kyle Larson63.286.449.115.5-8.574.8041.1448.91
Kurt Busch67.729.964.259.254.248.8055.0459.58
Denny Hamlin61.764.950.268.5-15.363.3046.0054.30
Erik Jones58.266.4   62.3062.3048.90
Clint Bowyer53.756.845.554.238.655.2549.7647.35
Alex Bowman0.9  36.8290.9022.2353.75
Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgFD Seas. Avg.
Ryan Blaney69.356.310.3  62.8045.3050.71
Aric Almirola61.7 50.655.71161.7044.7551.94
Jimmie Johnson60.5-6.318.357.265.227.1038.9854.12
Ryan Newman41.249.770.250.966.745.4555.7454.60
Ricky Stenhouse Jr35.656.3-7.659.740.645.9536.9248.26
Daniel Suarez50.745.8   48.2548.2551.50
William Byron48.2    48.2048.2050.30
Chris Buescher43.155.311.7  49.2036.7050.10
Austin Dillon41.152.249.835.751.746.6546.1044.80
Paul Menard54.248.752.652.251.251.4551.7849.83
Matt DiBenedetto2445.59.414 34.7523.2345.40
Michael McDowell43.144.1   43.6043.6037.77
Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgFD Seas. Avg.
Ty Dillon37.830.345  34.0537.7048.77
Daniel Hemric       43.64
Ryan Preece       44.16
Ross Chastain40.3    40.3040.3039.53
David Ragan52.74550.253.238.748.8547.9641.55
Bubba Wallace39.460.3   49.8549.8541.25
Matt Tifft       41.55
Corey LaJoie36    36.0036.0043.63
Landon Cassill33.646.338.143.637.739.9539.8636.78
BJ McLeod35.637.5   36.5536.55 
Quin Houff       33.85
Bayley Currey        

Weekly Rankings (1=Best, 40=Worst)

Race History, Kentucky History, Track Type History columns are ranked on average finish over those spans while the scoring columns are ranked from highest to lowest averages on those sites over those spans.

DriverDK$FD $Race HistoryDK Avg L2FD Avg L2DK Avg L5FD Avg L5Kentucky HistoryTrack Type History
Kyle Busch$11,500$14,0001331111
Martin Truex Jr$11,000$13,0004112242
Kevin Harvick$10,600$12,00039104434
Joey Logano$10,300$13,50077781175
Brad Keselowski$10,000$12,500525293553
Chase Elliott$9,700$11,00098515121013
Kyle Larson$9,500$11,000192217212012
Kurt Busch$9,300$10,000612167766
Denny Hamlin$9,100$10,7001144917129
Erik Jones$8,900$8,800210853211
Clint Bowyer$8,700$9,40014111114101416
Alex Bowman$8,500$11,20030353131313022
DriverDK$FD $Race HistoryDK Avg L2FD Avg L2DK Avg L5FD Avg L5Kentucky HistoryTrack Type History
Ryan Blaney$8,300$10,4009561118106
Aric Almirola$8,200$8,500176918191715
Jimmie Johnson$8,100$9,700193030242498
Ryan Newman$7,900$7,300821216689
Ricky Stenhouse Jr$7,800$8,00022202026262219
Daniel Suarez$7,600$8,20013191720131318
William Byron$7,500$9,00018171816141728
Chris Buescher$7,300$6,50024131421272320
Austin Dillon$7,200$7,70016181919161913
Paul Menard$7,000$7,0001114121081516
Matt DiBenedetto$6,800$5,50031262730303131
Michael McDowell$6,700$5,00023222222202926
DriverDK$FD $Race HistoryDK Avg L2FD Avg L2DK Avg L5FD Avg L5Kentucky HistoryTrack Type History
Ty Dillon$6,500$4,50026292828252527
Daniel Hemric$6,300$6,00040313232324021
Ryan Preece$6,100$5,00040313232324024
Ross Chastain$5,900$4,00025242325222433
David Ragan$5,700$4,50021151512152123
Bubba Wallace$5,500$4,0001515131391625
Matt Tifft$5,400$3,50040313232324030
Corey LaJoie$5,300$4,00028282629292729
Landon Cassill$5,200$3,00027232423232532
BJ McLeod$5,100#N/A29262527282834
Quin Houff$5,000$2,50040313232324036
Bayley Currey$4,900#N/A40313232324035