After the bumping and running of the short track of Martinsville, it’s time for those drivers to unleash the speed at one of the fastest tracks on the schedule in the heart of Texas. Texas Motor Speedway is a 1.5-mile Quad-oval track that is known for speed and lots of it.

The track is a bit different than your run-of-the-mill mile-and-a-half track as the banking is different in both sets of turns with Turns 1 & 2 banked at 20 degrees and Turns 3 & 4 tilted at 24 degrees. While the banking isn’t progressive it does allow for speed to keep up throughout the lap and just keep building to the point where, prior to the new aero package, speeds were routinely hitting 200-plus MPH into Turn 1.

The track was repaved prior to the 2017 season and so this will be just the fifth race on that surface and so the wear isn’t really there yet, and neither is a defined second groove. The track has been using tools to try and get a second groove to come in, but as of yet, it hasn’t come in consistently meaning passing might be trickier than it has been in races past. The Goodyear tires being run this week are designed to run cooler and try and lay more rubber throughout the race despite the relatively green track. If the tires run hot, they don’t get as much grip and they run the risk of blowing during the race since, without the falloff, they will be changed less often.

Starting Positions of Race Winners

Starting Pos.Races Won
13
23
38
43
54
71
84
91
101
151
191
241
291
302
311

Of the 36 races that have been held at Texas Motor Speedway since it opened in 1996, 21 eventual winners started in spots 1-5 in the grid with the most winners coming from the third spot with nearly a quarter starting there. That being said, the last five Spring races at Texas have seen winners start from P8, P24, P15, P5, and P10 in the starting grid going from most recent to least recent.

*There are a couple of new tables in this week’s breakdown, please feel free to let me know what you think of them in the NASCAR Chat.

Track Data

Drivers To Watch This Week

Last Five O’Reilly Auto Parts 500s

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Kyle Busch421.58516.523344
Jimmie Johnson51315.613.2-0.223333
Joey Logano55.863.42.414555
Kevin Harvick5611.812-603444
Kyle Larson51714.616.40.602233
Brad Keselowski55.810.415.4-9.601234
Chase Elliott31910.78.310.701233
Ryan Blaney46.519.322-15.501122
Erik Jones228.5141315.501111
Martin Truex Jr59.81315.6-5.800334
Kurt Busch58.812.415.8-700344
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Clint Bowyer518.817.417.61.200233
Bubba Wallace115158700111
William Byron13314102300111
Paul Menard517.424.628.4-1100111
Ty Dillon322.32116.75.600013
Denny Hamlin510.414.819-8.600033
Ricky Stenhouse Jr51917.419.2-0.200023
Ryan Newman513.617.419.6-600013
Aric Almirola520.620.421-0.400013
Austin Dillon517.223.623.8-6.600002
Ross Chastain13125181300001
Chris Buescher432.525.823.5900011
Daniel Suarez21727.524-700001
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Michael McDowell426.82624.52.300011
David Ragan530.827.826.44.400011
Matt DiBenedetto431.831.828.8300001
Landon Cassill531.23128.2300000
Alex Bowman326.73431-4.300000
Corey LaJoie1233232-900000
Reed Sorenson436.334.833.8 00000
Timmy Hill1393739000000
Parker Kligerman1363740-400000
BJ McLeod0000000000
Cody Ware0000000000
Daniel Hemric0000000000
Garrett Smithley0000000000
Matt Tifft0000000000
Ryan Preece0000000000

 

  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg. DriverLaps
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRatingComp.
Kyle Busch416040.013834.589%113.81342
Jimmie Johnson514629.214228.459%95.11515
Joey Logano516533.06513.098%111.71676
Kevin Harvick526252.416933.879%105.51364
Kyle Larson500.05811.663%84.51468
Brad Keselowski511623.27515.074%102.71518
Chase Elliott351.73812.783%92.21001
Ryan Blaney414837.07819.547%82.61069
Erik Jones26432.0157.551%83.4667
Martin Truex Jr519038.07715.464%97.41422
Kurt Busch58517.05410.875%89.31663
Clint Bowyer510.2418.257%78.91631
  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg. DriverLaps
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRatingComp.
Bubba Wallace100.000.055%75.5334
William Byron111.011.067%81.6334
Paul Menard510.291.828%57.51421
Ty Dillon300.031.017%63.3998
Denny Hamlin5326.4295.858%82.71518
Ricky Stenhouse Jr5102.0214.253%73.71655
Ryan Newman500.0142.840%70.51642
Aric Almirola500.081.627%67.61517
Austin Dillon500.071.413%581631
Ross Chastain100.000.01%48.7325
Chris Buescher400.0205.012%54.71326
Daniel Suarez200.031.511%50.5624
  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg. DriverLaps
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRatingComp.
Michael McDowell400.082.07%53.41332
David Ragan510.281.618%48.31642
Matt DiBenedetto400.030.80%39.41313
Landon Cassill500.0132.62%41.31646
Alex Bowman300.020.70%39.1959
Corey LaJoie100.000.00%37.5326
Reed Sorenson410.300.00%331177
Timmy Hill100.000.00%27.8104
Parker Kligerman100.033.00%31.6313
BJ McLeod000.000.00%00
Cody Ware000.000.00%00
Daniel Hemric000.000.00%00
Garrett Smithley000.000.00%00
Matt Tifft000.000.00%00
Ryan Preece000.000.00%00

Top-15 Drivers Over The Last 10 Races At Texas Motor Speedway

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Jimmie Johnson1012.71412.10.645577
Kevin Harvick104.687.3-2.727999
Kyle Busch915.211.97.77.526679
Joey Logano108.99.48.10.816899
Brad Keselowski107.510.111.3-3.804589
Kyle Larson1014.513.318.3-3.803466
Martin Truex Jr1011.210.211.9-0.702779
Chase Elliott619.79.77.212.502566
Ryan Blaney88.517.118.9-10.402355
Erik Jones515.81110.45.402344
Denny Hamlin1010.617.418.5-7.901366
Kurt Busch107.310.913-5.700789
Clint Bowyer1018.120.421.8-3.700244
Ryan Newman1015.117.218.3-3.200137
Aric Almirola1019.22019.2000136

 

  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg. Driver
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRating
Jimmie Johnson1035435.421521.563%96.6
Kevin Harvick104904936736.788%115.6
Kyle Busch917018.8921223.5668%100.8
Joey Logano1039839.816616.684%105.7
Brad Keselowski105005020620.678%105.1
Kyle Larson10747.414514.567%88.9
Martin Truex Jr1036436.419719.778%103.9
Chase Elliott691.554989%95.6
Ryan Blaney818823.512115.1360%85.1
Erik Jones56412.8367.277%93.1
Denny Hamlin1010110.1686.856%79.5
Kurt Busch1010010828.277%93.4
Clint Bowyer1010.1515.138%70.2
Ryan Newman1010.1414.137%73.6
Aric Almirola1000242.426%69.2

Top-15 Drivers At Similar Tracks (Charlotte, Chicago, Texas)

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Martin Truex Jr2011.87.87.24.6411161919
Kyle Busch1999.710.7-1.747111417
Jimmie Johnson2014.311.113.21.14791516
Kevin Harvick207.18.610.2-3.1212161617
Joey Logano209.910.911.2-1.318141515
Denny Hamlin2010.412.812.2-1.818131515
Brad Keselowski207.710.910.5-2.817141718
Austin Dillon2015.617.520.7-5.1113713
Kyle Larson2016.312160.30691213
Chase Elliott1514.511.411.82.70591113
Ryan Blaney1811.216.319.9-8.7035911
Kurt Busch2010.39.710.4-0.102141619
Ryan Newman2014.717.817.4-2.70261014
Erik Jones1015.914.213.42.502568
Clint Bowyer2017.719.620.2-2.5012811

  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg. Driver
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRating
Martin Truex Jr2013596870835.487%114.7
Kyle Busch1995950.559831.577%107.1
Jimmie Johnson2047823.93791977%99.2
Kevin Harvick2090645.368734.484%113.2
Joey Logano2055227.624212.176%97.5
Denny Hamlin202591324112.173%94.4
Brad Keselowski2048424.230715.479%98.8
Austin Dillon20231.2864.355%75.8
Kyle Larson201185.933716.971%92.4
Chase Elliott1524116.119613.176%94.6
Ryan Blaney1821511.91508.360%82.4
Kurt Busch2026113.121210.686%97.1
Ryan Newman2050.3422.139%73.8
Erik Jones10646.4777.763%86.1
Clint Bowyer20241.259339%70.4

 

Team Averages At Texas (Since Feb. 2017)

 Avg.  TopTop
TeamFinishRacesWins510
Team Penske8.210058
Stewart-Haas Racing12.75162410
Wood Brothers Racing15.254001
Chip Ganassi Racing15.888034
Joe Gibbs Racing16.3816155
Richard Petty Motorsports16.54001
Hendrick Motorsports16.8116126

Momentum

These tables keep track of the last five races of the 2019 season and who's hot and who's not in that span.

Drivers

Driver Momentum
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTopAvg. Driver
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520Rating
Kyle Busch5662.83.224555124
Brad Keselowski511.89.65.26.624445110.3
Joey Logano5117.411012334103.9
Kevin Harvick56.65.85.41.203555113.9
Ryan Blaney513.49.811.22.203333102.6
Martin Truex Jr515.28.65.69.602555105.9
Kurt Busch518.410.46.611.80245596.1
Denny Hamlin547.67.6-3.602455102.7
Aric Almirola598.67.41.601555100.1
Chase Elliott510.210.811-0.80124589.9
Clint Bowyer51313.615-20124484.4
Daniel Suarez516.81514.62.20023477.7
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTopAvg. Driver
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520Rating
Kyle Larson513.212.6121.20014588.4
Ricky Stenhouse Jr51315.815.2-2.20013478.1
Chris Buescher52118.81650011463.6
Austin Dillon511.415.416.6-5.20012374.6
Jimmie Johnson511.415.418.4-70011373.5
Erik Jones515.817.619.6-3.80012370.8
Paul Menard51716.616.20.80003569.1
William Byron52017.818.81.20001367
Alex Bowman514.41719.2-4.80003371.4
Ryan Newman517.41918.8-1.40002263.5
Ty Dillon518.623.821.8-3.20002255.3
Matt DiBenedetto523.220.422.60.60000257.9
Daniel Hemric517.82224.2-6.40000260.2
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTopAvg. Driver
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520Rating
David Ragan520.424.824-3.60000147.6
Bubba Wallace525.424.424.410000149.8
Ryan Preece522.223.426.6-4.40000151.3
Matt Tifft531.828.627.44.40000139.8
Corey LaJoie52829.229.2-1.20000039.4
Quin Houff135333050000028
Parker Kligerman2333030.52.50000038.8
Ross Chastain532.831.430.62.20000035.5
Bayley Currey136333150000027
Landon Cassill531.231.831.200000034
Michael McDowell521.428.631.6-10.20000042.6
DJ Kennington135323230000029.2
Cody Ware53434.633.60.40000028.5
Reed Sorenson236353510000028.9
BJ McLeod335.73635.30.40000026.9
Garrett Smithley23636.53600000025.8
Joey Gase2373736.50.50000024.4

Teams

Team Momentum
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Team#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Chip Ganassi Racing1015.811.59.36.5025910
Front Row Motorsports1524.527.327.7-3.100002
Hendrick Motorsports201415.316.9-2.9013914
Joe Gibbs Racing2010.3108.91.428151718
JTG Daugherty Racing1021.621.121.30.300115
Richard Childress Racing1014.618.720.4-5.800125
Roush Fenway Racing1015.217.417-1.800156
Stewart-Haas Racing2011.410.810.60.805141718
Team Penske1512.18.99.12.939101012

DraftKings Scoring Averages Last Five O’Reilly Auto Parts 500s

Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgDK Seas. Avg.
Kyle Busch1175188.5 80.584.0084.2569.06
Brad Keselowski-114717.557.2550.7518.0032.3066
Kevin Harvick104.7567.2550.7593-35.7586.0056.0048.41
Kurt Busch5538.547.535.25-2246.7530.8547
Joey Logano39584153.7510048.5058.3546.88
Kyle Larson-11.58536456.536.7534.0043.75
Martin Truex Jr-2361.2592.7541.526.519.1339.8043.5
Ryan Blaney43.584.50.5-26.5 64.0025.5043
Chase Elliott48.56842.75  58.2553.0842.53
Denny Hamlin-9112740.5351.0020.9041.72
Aric Almirola-82720.538.5399.5023.4040.28
Clint Bowyer3525.543361.2530.2531.7531.91
Ricky Stenhouse Jr23.529194123.526.2527.2031.68
Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgDK Seas. Avg.
Austin Dillon9319.518226.0014.3030.47
Daniel Suarez126.5   13.7513.7530.44
Jimmie Johnson-149752104.52741.5053.3029.5
Ty Dillon41.524.534.5  33.0033.5029.29
Ryan Newman15130.52725.58.0019.8028.94
Erik Jones80.536   58.2558.2528.75
Parker Kligerman    1.5 1.5028.5
Chris Buescher324324.528.5 37.5032.0028.07
Paul Menard3-5.520.5-29.2539-1.255.5527.16
William Byron57.75    57.7557.7526.11
Matt DiBenedetto4286.518 25.0018.6325.96
Ross Chastain39    39.0039.0025.07
Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgDK Seas. Avg.
Alex Bowman5  12105.009.0024.41
Ryan Preece       22.29
Corey LaJoie 3   3.003.0020.64
Matt Tifft       19.64
Bubba Wallace43    43.0043.0019.5
BJ McLeod       18.8
David Ragan27910.754819.518.0022.8518.36
Landon Cassill37131.5151619.0020.1018.32
Daniel Hemric       16.82
Michael McDowell4311 221527.0022.7515.21
Cody Ware       11.5
Reed Sorenson19412 16.2511.5012.8110
Garrett Smithley       8
Timmy Hill 5   5.005.000

FanDuel Scoring Averages Last Five O’Reilly Auto Parts 500s

Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgFD Seas. Avg.
Kyle Busch91.568.986.8 8680.2083.3065.84
Brad Keselowski14.868.351.271.16241.5553.4864.76
Kevin Harvick82.176.670.583-15.679.3559.3258.29
Kurt Busch68.464.471.458.420.766.4056.6661.54
Joey Logano68.975.770.973.392.372.3076.2260.10
Kyle Larson4.688.463.441.474.546.5054.4656.10
Martin Truex Jr-3.570.88168.45733.6554.7456.04
Ryan Blaney68.972.234-6.4 70.5542.1854.65
Chase Elliott68.277.469  72.8071.5354.89
Denny Hamlin11.445.359.466.960.528.3548.7058.08
Aric Almirola16.856.450.161.965.536.6050.1455.79
Clint Bowyer62.459.430.954.975.660.9056.6449.18
Ricky Stenhouse Jr4958.952.962.951.353.9555.0054.37
Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgFD Seas. Avg.
Austin Dillon40.936.250.751.453.438.5546.5249.45
Daniel Suarez33.555.9   44.7044.7049.23
Jimmie Johnson10.589.773.991.245.350.1062.1250.49
Ty Dillon66.255.959.2  61.0560.4350.26
Ryan Newman43.339.758.359.95541.5051.2449.14
Erik Jones85.359.3   72.3072.3047.91
Parker Kligerman    30.3 30.3042.90
Chris Buescher60.661.84949.2 61.2055.1550.33
Paul Menard2729.447.56.86828.2035.7448.06
William Byron76    76.0076.0047.99
Matt DiBenedetto64.940.237.244 52.5546.5847.07
Ross Chastain62    62.0062.0041.91
Alex Bowman36.4  41.541.536.4039.8045.31
Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgFD Seas. Avg.
Ryan Preece       43.87
Corey LaJoie 37.1   37.1037.1042.27
Matt Tifft       40.99
Bubba Wallace69.9    69.9069.9042.66
BJ McLeod       32.94
David Ragan52.742.439.969.943.447.5549.6642.61
Landon Cassill59.137.95342.743.448.5047.2238.81
Daniel Hemric       39.10
Michael McDowell66.746.3 47.243.556.5050.9335.94
Cody Ware       27.23
Reed Sorenson33.935.438.5 4434.6537.9528.70
Garrett Smithley       27.10
Timmy Hill 12.4   12.4012.4026.44

 

Weekly Rankings (1=Best, 40=Worst)

Race Hist, Texas History, Track Type History columns are ranked on average finish in given spans. Scoring columns are ranked from highest scoring to lowest scoring average.

DriverDK$FD $Race HistDK Avg L2FD Avg L2DK Avg L5FD Avg L5Texas HistoryTrack Type History
Kyle Busch$12,200$15,0002211135
Brad Keselowski$11,900$14,00092122131764
Joey Logano$11,600$13,5001752246
Martin Truex Jr$11,300$13,20010192991571
Kevin Harvick$10,700$14,00061251022
Ryan Blaney$10,200$12,500203718271616
Denny Hamlin$9,800$11,5001630302222158
Kurt Busch$9,500$11,0001189161193
Kyle Larson$9,200$12,00012132011161311
Clint Bowyer$8,900$10,80014151315122017
Chase Elliott$8,600$11,3004447517
Aric Almirola$8,400$10,50019252619201718
Erik Jones$8,200$10,20074534510
Jimmie Johnson$8,000$9,300810176789
DriverDK$FD $Race HistDK Avg L2FD Avg L2DK Avg L5FD Avg L5Texas HistoryTrack Type History
Austin Dillon$7,800$9,00022272426251918
Ricky Stenhouse Jr$7,600$8,40017171517141214
Daniel Suarez$7,500$8,10023232127262112
William Byron$7,300$7,40056343920
Alex Bowman$7,100$8,20029282729282724
Ryan Newman$6,900$7,60018262324181313
Daniel Hemric$6,800$6,00040404040404040
Paul Menard$6,600$7,00027313130312321
Chris Buescher$6,400$6,50021121114132223
Matt DiBenedetto$6,300$6,00028181625242930
Ryan Preece$6,100$5,50040404040403234
David Ragan$6,000$4,50025211920212628
DriverDK$FD $Race HistDK Avg L2FD Avg L2DK Avg L5FD Avg L5Texas HistoryTrack Type History
Ty Dillon$5,800$5,0001314121291722
Michael McDowell$5,700$4,00024161421192526
Ross Chastain$5,600$4,0001511101082425
Bubba Wallace$5,500$4,500398861115
Matt Tifft$5,400$4,00040404040404040
Corey LaJoie$5,300$3,50030292531303332
Landon Cassill$5,200$3,50026201823232827
Parker Kligerman$5,100$3,50032404032323129
Cody Ware$5,000$2,50040404040404040
Reed Sorenson$4,900$3,00031242828293033
BJ McLeod$4,800$2,00040404040404031
Timmy Hill$4,700$2,50040284040403334
Garrett Smithley$4,600$2,50040404040404040