**UPDATE: Kasey Kahne (#95 car) will not race on Sunday due to complications from Heat Exhuastion and Regan Smith will instead drive the #95 car. He has not yet been added to the salary list on either site. I have updated the drivers to watch section to cover someone other than Kahne. You can simply ignore his data in the Track Data section.**

Aside from Daytona, this might just be the most historic race track the NASCAR schedule visits during the season. The “Brickyard” is a rectangular oval that is 2.5 miles in length for one lap and has four separate turns that are banked at a 9.2 degree angle with completely flat straightaways. The history is well established but this is the first time in a while that this race is happening this late in the year, since typically it happens in July and not as the last regular season race.

While it is typically considered a fairly hard track to pass on with 15 of the 24 total winners at the track coming from the top-10 starting spots, the last few years have had a myriad of cautions that have really blown up the position differential stats in that time. There have been 9, 8, and 14 cautions each of the last three races from earliest to last year, which for a race that is 160 laps long, that’s quite a few. With a bunch of guys still needing a win to sneak into the playoffs, that number could stay right around there this year since guys will be more likely to try and pull off risky moves.

With the track being so long in length, it also reduces the amount of laps led one guy tends to have, unless that guy is Kyle Busch who has straight dominated this track the last several races as he has three times more laps led than the next closest driver. A reduction in bonus points for laps led and fastest laps ( 120 total points available on DK and 96 between laps led and laps completed on FD), the key to a high scoring lineup is the guys that move up through the field. The similar track(s) this week is Pocono Raceway since it has similarly banked turns and is the same distance as Indy.

Track Data

Last Four Races at Indianapolis Motor Speedway

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Kyle Busch45.86.59.523333255
Kasey Kahne420.513.312.31122382
Joey Logano4884.50344444
Matt Kenseth41794.50344421
Denny Hamlin413.310.57.30333418
Kevin Harvick4465.80144487
Kyle Larson413.81012.3013335
Brad Keselowski412.51210.30123455
Martin Truex Jr41311.817.5012228
Ryan Newman415.315.814011330
Jimmie Johnson41012.314.8011330
Austin Dillon418.517.816.3002221
Paul Menard42021.818.5001230
Chris Buescher2242311.5001220
Clint Bowyer41816.318.3001123
Kurt Busch41116.320.3001120
AJ Allmendinger431.527.322.3001120
Daniel Suarez115167001110
Matt DiBenedetto332.33326.7001110
Jamie McMurray411.514.517.5000140
Chase Elliott319.724.324000120
Ryan Blaney31915.323.7000116
Aric Almirola430.324.524.3000110
Ricky Stenhouse Jr421.822.826.5000110
Timmy Hill239.537.527.5000110
Ty Dillon1282119000010
Michael McDowell427.827.324.5000010
Landon Cassill431.327.824.5000010
Erik Jones1915310000010
David Ragan424.828.332.8000005
Gray Gaulding1353024000000
Jeffrey Earnhardt1363226000000
BJ McLeod1403632000000
Reed Sorenson240.53835.5000000
JJ Yeley235.53738000000
Corey LaJoie1323940000000
Alex Bowman2353841.5000000
Bubba Wallace0000000000
David Starr0000000000
Ross Chastain0000000000
William Byron0000000000

 

 FastTop 15LapsAvg.HighLowPosLaps LedHigh toLow to
DriverLapsRateComp.RatingRatingRatingDiffPts./RaceAvg RatingAvg Rating
Kyle Busch14087%604130.3150116.8-3.7015.9419.713.5
Kasey Kahne2752%66191.6132.769.38.205.1341.122.3
Joey Logano1590%661106.7117.999.53.502.7511.27.2
Matt Kenseth3088%661107.8114100.612.501.316.27.2
Denny Hamlin1879%66097.9109.481.36.001.1311.516.6
Kevin Harvick4494%661115.5135.5102.7-1.805.442012.8
Kyle Larson688%64896.8107.372.81.500.3110.524
Brad Keselowski1570%66194.7102.885.32.203.448.19.4
Martin Truex Jr3369%60496.9114.566.7-4.500.5017.630.2
Ryan Newman255%65779.388.9701.300.009.69.3
Jimmie Johnson969%65289.697.178.2-4.800.007.511.4
Austin Dillon846%65674.989.7602.200.0614.814.9
Paul Menard026%65967.579.5471.500.001220.5
Chris Buescher15%3377073.366.612.500.003.33.4
Clint Bowyer252%64179.688.554.3-0.300.198.925.3
Kurt Busch562%64281.191.769.7-9.300.0010.611.4
AJ Allmendinger14%562566443.29.200.00812.8
Daniel Suarez156%1678181818.000.0000
Matt DiBenedetto05%33339.761.823.25.600.0022.116.5
Jamie McMurray358%66180.197.573.3-6.000.0017.46.8
Chase Elliott821%37759.373.838-4.300.0014.521.3
Ryan Blaney749%47876.892.663.5-4.700.5015.813.3
Aric Almirola212%65659.867.746.86.000.007.913
Ricky Stenhouse Jr117%59761.769.753.5-4.700.0088.2
Timmy Hill01%2783647.224.712.000.0011.211.3
Ty Dillon021%16559.559.559.59.000.0000
Michael McDowell07%65652.863.843.73.300.00119.1
Landon Cassill06%65348.857.241.16.800.008.47.7
Erik Jones157%148797979-22.002.5000
David Ragan616%49548.18632.5-8.000.3137.915.6
Gray Gaulding00%16241.841.841.811.000.0000
Jeffrey Earnhardt00%16238.538.538.510.000.0000
BJ McLeod00%1353131318.000.0000
Reed Sorenson00%32130.631.329.95.000.000.70.7
JJ Yeley00%23030.232.527.8-2.500.002.32.4
Corey LaJoie00%924.824.824.8-8.000.0000
Alex Bowman00%23427.329.724.8-6.500.00  
Bubba Wallace00%00000.00 00
David Starr00%00000.00 00
Ross Chastain00%00000.00 00
William Byron00%00000.00 00

 

Top-15 Drivers Over Last 10 Races at Indianapolis

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Jimmie Johnson1078.510.535578269
Kyle Busch101410.512.124788272
Kasey Kahne1014.212.110.912579130
Ryan Newman1012.115.6121238945
Jamie McMurray1013.215.113.91235826
Paul Menard1021.721.918.51126722
Matt Kenseth1014.812.112.30578832
Denny Hamlin1012.714.613.20456875
Joey Logano913.112.811.70367755
Kevin Harvick1013.212.911.10268994
Brad Keselowski812.513.812.40145799
Martin Truex Jr1018.714.5180134511
Kyle Larson413.81012.3013335
Clint Bowyer1020.415.716.2012486
Kurt Busch1012.819.222.9002340

 

 FastTop 15LapsAvg.HighLowPos.Laps LedRating
DriverLapsRateComp.RatingRatingRatingDiff.Pts/RaceRange
Jimmie Johnson16280%1612109.815075.9-3.506.7374.1
Kyle Busch17679%1516109.515068.51.906.8081.5
Kasey Kahne7668%162196.1132.769.33.303.2563.4
Ryan Newman2952%161785134.262.20.101.1372
Jamie McMurray1653%162182.8127.657-0.700.6570.6
Paul Menard232%157568.910424.83.200.5579.2
Matt Kenseth3979%157797.5119.168.72.500.8050.4
Denny Hamlin4962%160491.4119.569.6-0.501.8849.9
Joey Logano2264%144591.2117.961.51.401.5356.4
Kevin Harvick5067%160994.8135.539.32.102.3596.2
Brad Keselowski4459%130189.3102.8640.103.0938.8
Martin Truex Jr3655%156385.3114.561.70.700.2852.8
Kyle Larson688%64896.8107.372.81.500.3134.5
Clint Bowyer1151%160181.4114.554.34.200.1560.2
Kurt Busch1153%152675.696.542.7-10.100.0053.8

 

Top-15 Drivers Over Last 20 Races at Similar Tracks

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Kyle Busch2011.410.61347131515534
Jimmie Johnson201212.415.33691114276
Martin Truex Jr2013.71416.22481013197
Matt Kenseth2014.313.913.41612141677
Kurt Busch2010.115.917.2148111391
Kasey Kahne2017.215.417.51271214132
Ryan Newman2012.915.814.1126151646
Jamie McMurray2012.715.215.7126101627
Ryan Blaney914.714.415.71136627
Paul Menard2021.122.721.311281122
Chris Buescher822.524.618.81123512
Kevin Harvick201111.69.809141718276
Brad Keselowski189.312.311.208111215233
Denny Hamlin2010.412.31306111416105
Joey Logano191113.215.706101112237

 

 FastTop 15LapsAvg.HighLowPosLaps LedRating
DriverLapsRateComp.RatingRatingRatingDiff.Pts./RaceRange
Kyle Busch34079%2950106.415043-1.606.68107
Jimmie Johnson17969%294297.115045.3-3.303.45104.7
Martin Truex Jr18659%307390.914761.3-2.502.4685.7
Matt Kenseth7467%311590.9123.652.60.900.9671
Kurt Busch8562%309887.6128.642.7-7.101.1485.9
Kasey Kahne9760%296683.9132.723.7-0.301.65109
Ryan Newman3152%317981.2134.262.2-1.200.5872
Jamie McMurray2456%313782127.657-3.000.3470.6
Ryan Blaney2461%141885.3105.663.5-1.000.7542.1
Paul Menard1027%30936610424.8-0.200.2879.2
Chris Buescher48%123660.576.249.63.700.3826.6
Kevin Harvick26673%3051103.5141.439.31.203.45102.1
Brad Keselowski15868%283996143.364-1.903.2479.3
Denny Hamlin8071%317193.6119.569.6-2.601.3149.9
Joey Logano7962%299391.1128.761.5-4.703.1267.2

 

Momentum

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopPosAvg.
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sDiff.Rating
Chase Elliott58.67.25135553.6117.2
Kevin Harvick5158.45.8135559.2115.5
Kyle Busch5896.8134451.2112.6
Brad Keselowski512.612.214.812224-2.292.3
Kurt Busch514.610.46.2115558.499.9
Erik Jones57.48.47.2034550.2103
Kyle Larson511.49.610.2023341.2100
Joey Logano514.41615.802333-1.483.2
Daniel Suarez519.815.212.802234786
Ryan Blaney516.611.210.2012556.494
Alex Bowman513.615.813.4012340.282
Martin Truex Jr57.810.614.401144-6.698.8
Austin Dillon520.415.414.6011345.875.5
Denny Hamlin52.49.61100355-8.694
Jamie McMurray51716.617.200223-0.276.9

 

 

Points Changes at Brickyard 400

DraftKings

 17 RaceSeasonDK Pts +/-
DriverTotalAvg DK Pts.Season AVG
Kasey Kahne67.526.8940.6
Matt Kenseth61.7521.3340.4
Timmy Hill5312.6940.3
AJ Allmendinger6324.9238.1
Matt DiBenedetto5522.2732.7
Chris Buescher5226.1125.9
Brad Keselowski56.7533.1423.6
Ryan Newman46.524.921.6
Daniel Suarez45.529.6215.9
Gray Gaulding3116.1114.9
Landon Cassill3118.8612.1
Aric Almirola5038.4811.5
Ty Dillon3422.8911.1
BJ McLeod2010.679.3
Jeffrey Earnhardt2818.79.3
Michael McDowell3222.819.2
Paul Menard2924.025.0
Joey Logano4338.064.9
Austin Dillon23.528.24-4.7
Jamie McMurray1823.36-5.4
JJ Yeley316.43-13.4
Corey LaJoie-413.66-17.7
Denny Hamlin15.537.82-22.3
Ryan Blaney1336.68-23.7
David Ragan-222.79-24.8
Kyle Larson13.541.34-27.8
Ricky Stenhouse Jr-525.04-30.0
Kevin Harvick36.567.45-31.0
Jimmie Johnson-631.7-37.7
Clint Bowyer5.545.01-39.5
Erik Jones-8.532.63-41.1
Kurt Busch-240.65-42.7
Kyle Busch18.7562.96-44.2
Martin Truex Jr-648.05-54.1
Chase Elliott-1838.43-56.4
    
  AVG. +/-25.2

FanDuel

 17 Race18 SeasonFD Pts +/-
DriverTotalAvg FD Pts.Season AVG
Kasey Kahne69.944.9524.95
Timmy Hill55.230.3824.82
Matt Kenseth59.338.9320.37
AJ Allmendinger62.242.8119.39
Matt DiBenedetto59.241.4217.78
Brad Keselowski63.550.1013.40
Chris Buescher57.245.4011.80
Ryan Newman57.246.2210.98
Daniel Suarez54.747.786.92
Gray Gaulding38.734.733.97
Michael McDowell42.639.073.53
Landon Cassill39.738.011.69
Jeffrey Earnhardt36.236.35-0.15
Ty Dillon4343.44-0.44
Aric Almirola52.753.92-1.22
Joey Logano55.256.69-1.49
Paul Menard42.244.40-2.20
BJ McLeod26.528.82-2.32
Jamie McMurray36.745.52-8.82
Austin Dillon35.748.80-13.10
Kevin Harvick49.764.27-14.57
Denny Hamlin34.654.63-20.03
Ryan Blaney28.350.07-21.77
Kyle Larson26.955.89-28.99
JJ Yeley938.35-29.35
Corey LaJoie-2.127.78-29.88
Jimmie Johnson18.349.00-30.70
Clint Bowyer20.857.27-36.47
Kurt Busch18.455.16-36.76
Ricky Stenhouse Jr9.646.55-36.95
Erik Jones13.852.51-38.71
David Ragan4.644.46-39.86
Martin Truex Jr6.357.77-51.47
Kyle Busch10.263.89-53.69
Chase Elliott-5.254.46-59.66
    
  AVG. +/-20.52

 

Top-10 and Bottom-10 Value Drivers

DraftKings

RankDriverValueRankDriverValue
1Kevin Harvick5.5340BJ McLeod2.27
2Kyle Busch5.3839Reed Sorenson2.57
3Clint Bowyer5.0038Corey Lajoie2.68
4Aric Almirola4.8137Timmy Hill2.76
5Martin Truex Jr4.7636Jamie McMurray2.96
6Kurt Busch4.6235Matt Kenseth3.05
7Joey Logano4.4334William Byron3.36
8Chase Elliott4.1833Brad Keselowski3.38
9David Ragan4.1432JJ Yeley3.42
10Matt DiBenedetto4.1231Ricky Stenhouse Jr3.43

FanDuel

RankDriverValueRankDriverValue
1J.J. Yeley9.5940Brad Keselowski4.28
2Ross Chastain8.8839Kyle Larson4.37
3Matt DiBenedetto8.2838Joey Logano4.53
4Jeffrey Earnhardt8.0837Kyle Busch4.56
5Michael McDowell7.8136Kevin Harvick4.69
6Gray Gaulding7.7235Martin Truex Jr.4.70
7Timmy Hill7.5934Matt Kenseth4.75
8Ty Dillon7.2433Denny Hamlin4.75
9B.J. McLeod7.2132Chase Elliott4.86
10Ricky Stenhouse Jr.7.1631Ryan Blaney5.11

 

Drivers To Watch This Week:

Jimmie Johnson: Johnson sits 15th in the playoff standings heading into this week and is +87 above the cut line which means a decent finish and he should be safe even if someone not currently in the playoffs wins. His history here is pretty solid as well with a top-five and three top-15s in the last four races with three wins, five top-fives, five top-10s, and 269 laps led in the last 10 races. He is getting tired of hearing about how they’ve struggled this year and most of last year as well, he could put that to bed with a strong performance on Sunday.

Alex Bowman: Bowman is just below his teammate and the man on the bubble heading into the season finale with a 68-point cushion. In his precious two Cup races here he hasn’t run well but that was in subpar equipment and certainly not anywhere close to what he’s piloting now. As long as no one new wins this week, or at least a new winner who isn’t in the playoffs, he should be advancing to the Chase field at Vegas next week. The last few weeks he has been showing good speed, and that should continue here.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: Stenhouse is the first man out of the playoffs right now and has a tough task ahead of him this week in trying to win to get in given his struggles here. Only one top-15 in the last four isn’t going to cut it this week but his crew chief has been known to pull late race strategy calls that wind up helping him. He is bottom mid-tier to low-tier salary guy on both sites, which is where he should be, but if he shows speed he might just be worth a flier.

Ryan Newman: Newman is an Indiana man and so winning again at the Brickyard would be not only big for him as a win at his home track but it would also put him into the playoff field. In the last four he has similar stats to JJ but in the last 10 he’s got a win, three top-10s, and eight top-15s with 45 laps led. Last year in Phoenix Newman’s crew chief made a late race call to stay out and that won him his one race win in the last few years, a similar call might be necessary this week, along with similar speed to what he showed at Darlington a week ago.

Daniel Suarez: It was before the Chicago race that Suarez guaranteed that he would make the playoffs and now this week is his last chance to make that guarantee hold true. He is 20th in the playoff standings and needs nothing short of a win to make the Chase being nearly 100 points on the outside. Suarez has two races here in the Xfinity and Cup series so far in his career and both races had the same finiish for him at P7. In the Cup series race last year he had a +8 position differntial which only ups his value. He is a mid-tier guy salary-wise on both sites this week and with him needing a win and nothing less to make the playoffs expect him to be aggressive on the restarts and with strategy calls to try and finish off the regular season with a win.