There are just four races left until the Chase starts the second weekend of September. Before it starts though there is a 2-mile D-shaped Oval to contend with this weekend. Known as the fastest track in NASCAR, Michigan International Speedway is located in Brooklyn, Michigan in the Irish Hills part of the state. Gently rolling hills and small town speed limits belie the aggressiveness and speeds that happen at MIS.
The speed at MIS comes from not only the shape of the track but also the banking in the turns at 18 degrees. The curved front stretch is banked at 12 degrees and with the shape it allows the cars to keep the momentum going and just build upon the speed that’s already present. That being said, it’s not just smooth sailing at the track and there are tricky parts to it. It is mostly a single-groove track, though the outer most lane does come in (seemingly only for Kyle Larson though). It is impressively hard to pass on this track, as evidenced by the three drivers with a +6 position differential in the last 3-4 races. Bubba Wallace is at +8 but only has two races at the track. This race is the 14th race since they repaved the surface yet multiple grooves still haven’t come in, though the track has been dragging the tire dragon for a few days this week in order to add rubber to the surface and wear in the surface even faster.
There have been 98 races at the track since racing started there in 1969 and 21 winners have started on the pole, that doesn’t include those starting inside the top-five in that time either. The pace of pole winners winning however has picked up recently with five of the last 10 winners starting atop the grid. Three of the last 10 have started in the double-digits including two from 12th. The five races before the last 10 all had winners from starting spots of 10, 17, 17, 13, and 19.
Ford has been the most dominant manufacturer at Michigan, being that it’s in Ford’s backyard, with 36 wins at the track. Roush-Fenway Racing has the most wins with 13 while the Wood Brothers are a close second with 11 and Hendrick Motorsports with eight.
With this being an intermediate style track and the race consisting of 200 laps, chasing laps led and fastest laps as the bonuses makes some sense, but that lap total is still lower than most other intermediate tracks run. In DraftKings there is a total 150 dominator points available between fastest laps and laps led and in FanDuel for you lineup there is a total of 120 bonus points between laps completed and laps led with really only 20 points to get split for leading laps. That’s not to much to bank on to boost the score so focusing on the guys who can keep their positions or move up some, and try and nail down the guy who will lead the most laps on Sunday is the way to go.
Track Breakdown
Last Four Races at Michigan International Speedway
| Avg. | Avg. | Avg. | Top | Top | Top | Top | Laps | |||
| Driver | Races | Start | Run Pos. | Finish | Wins | 5s | 10s | 15s | 20s | Led |
| Kyle Larson | 4 | 12 | 9 | 7.8 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 140 |
| Clint Bowyer | 4 | 13.3 | 15 | 22.5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| Chase Elliott | 4 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 31 |
| Kevin Harvick | 4 | 5.5 | 6 | 8.5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 82 |
| Jamie McMurray | 4 | 11.8 | 12.8 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Kyle Busch | 4 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 54 |
| Joey Logano | 4 | 3.8 | 9.5 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 24 |
| Denny Hamlin | 4 | 7 | 9.3 | 10.3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| Ryan Blaney | 4 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 4 | 11.5 | 9 | 11.5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 126 |
| Brad Keselowski | 4 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 10.5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 121 |
| Kurt Busch | 4 | 12.5 | 12 | 9.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 46 |
| Erik Jones | 3 | 10 | 13 | 10.3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
| Ryan Newman | 4 | 16.3 | 16.8 | 14.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Paul Menard | 4 | 23.8 | 20.8 | 19.8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Trevor Bayne | 3 | 24 | 19.7 | 15.3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 4 | 14.3 | 15.5 | 13.8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 37 |
| Austin Dillon | 4 | 17 | 16.8 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 4 | 17.8 | 19.8 | 20.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Chris Buescher | 4 | 20.8 | 27 | 25.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Aric Almirola | 3 | 18.7 | 18.3 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| AJ Allmendinger | 4 | 26 | 22 | 17.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Kasey Kahne | 4 | 19.8 | 17.3 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 |
| William Byron | 1 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Darrell Wallace Jr | 2 | 27 | 22.5 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Ty Dillon | 3 | 33.7 | 26.3 | 20.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Alex Bowman | 2 | 13.5 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Daniel Suarez | 3 | 19.3 | 21 | 30.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Blake Jones | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ross Chastain | 1 | 33 | 29 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael McDowell | 4 | 26.5 | 27.3 | 26.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Corey LaJoie | 3 | 32.7 | 31.3 | 29.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 4 | 29.8 | 31.8 | 30.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gray Gaulding | 1 | 34 | 32 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Ragan | 4 | 29 | 31.3 | 31.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Landon Cassill | 4 | 34.3 | 31.8 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Timmy Hill | 1 | 38 | 34 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeffrey Earnhardt | 3 | 37 | 36.3 | 35.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BJ McLeod | 2 | 37 | 37.5 | 36.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Garrett Smithley | 1 | 39 | 38 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fast | Top 15 | Laps | Avg. | High | Low | Pos | Laps Led | High to | Low to | |
| Driver | Laps | Rate | Comp. | Rating | Rating | Rating | Diff | Pts./Race | Avg Rating | Avg Rating |
| Kyle Larson | 70 | 87% | 735 | 114.2 | 140.5 | 82.2 | 4.20 | 8.75 | 26.3 | 32 |
| Clint Bowyer | 16 | 59% | 722 | 84.7 | 124.2 | 50.8 | -9.20 | 0.50 | 39.5 | 33.9 |
| Chase Elliott | 44 | 93% | 333 | 105.2 | 126.5 | 89.2 | 3.00 | 1.94 | 21.3 | 16 |
| Kevin Harvick | 60 | 90% | 735 | 116.1 | 140.2 | 86.9 | -3.00 | 5.13 | 24.1 | 29.2 |
| Jamie McMurray | 3 | 78% | 735 | 87.5 | 89.1 | 84.7 | 3.80 | 0.00 | 1.6 | 2.8 |
| Kyle Busch | 57 | 70% | 734 | 96 | 121.7 | 65.2 | -2.70 | 3.38 | 25.7 | 30.8 |
| Joey Logano | 9 | 88% | 733 | 96.3 | 102.7 | 85.5 | -8.20 | 1.50 | 6.4 | 10.8 |
| Denny Hamlin | 18 | 93% | 735 | 95.3 | 108.6 | 84.4 | -3.30 | 1.00 | 13.3 | 10.9 |
| Ryan Blaney | 32 | 86% | 735 | 99.1 | 115.2 | 84.4 | -4.50 | 0.94 | 16.1 | 14.7 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 127 | 82% | 734 | 102.7 | 126.4 | 75 | 0.00 | 7.88 | 23.7 | 27.7 |
| Brad Keselowski | 52 | 92% | 735 | 105.4 | 117.5 | 86 | -2.20 | 7.56 | 12.1 | 19.4 |
| Kurt Busch | 14 | 67% | 735 | 89.8 | 124.8 | 74.2 | 3.00 | 2.88 | 35 | 15.6 |
| Erik Jones | 18 | 70% | 535 | 90.8 | 115.8 | 75.7 | -0.30 | 0.42 | 25 | 15.1 |
| Ryan Newman | 1 | 40% | 735 | 72.6 | 76.2 | 64.8 | 1.80 | 0.06 | 3.6 | 7.8 |
| Paul Menard | 2 | 23% | 729 | 66.1 | 83.7 | 51.1 | 4.00 | 0.19 | 17.6 | 15 |
| Trevor Bayne | 6 | 11% | 600 | 67 | 77 | 58.8 | 8.70 | 0.00 | 10 | 8.2 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 17 | 43% | 735 | 80.8 | 119 | 63.3 | 0.50 | 2.31 | 38.2 | 17.5 |
| Austin Dillon | 2 | 46% | 734 | 69.5 | 82.3 | 43.3 | 1.00 | 0.06 | 12.8 | 26.2 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 0 | 28% | 733 | 65 | 78.2 | 51 | -2.70 | 0.00 | 13.2 | 14 |
| Chris Buescher | 1 | 5% | 735 | 51.5 | 72.6 | 29.4 | -4.50 | 0.00 | 21.1 | 22.1 |
| Aric Almirola | 2 | 32% | 533 | 71.8 | 90.7 | 54.3 | 2.70 | 0.00 | 18.9 | 17.5 |
| AJ Allmendinger | 3 | 11% | 735 | 62 | 77 | 54 | 8.50 | 0.00 | 15 | 8 |
| Kasey Kahne | 4 | 49% | 671 | 70.7 | 93 | 56.8 | -4.20 | 0.69 | 22.3 | 13.9 |
| William Byron | 0 | 100% | 133 | 95.5 | 95.5 | 95.5 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Darrell Wallace Jr | 0 | 3% | 470 | 58.9 | 60.3 | 57.5 | 8.00 | 0.00 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Ty Dillon | 0 | 0% | 535 | 51 | 51.8 | 49.8 | 13.00 | 0.00 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Alex Bowman | 5 | 20% | 328 | 70.1 | 70.2 | 70 | -9.50 | 0.00 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Daniel Suarez | 5 | 26% | 529 | 67.9 | 78.9 | 61.7 | -11.00 | 0.25 | 11 | 6.2 |
| Blake Jones | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ross Chastain | 0 | 2% | 133 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 7.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael McDowell | 0 | 0% | 728 | 46.7 | 49.8 | 39.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.1 | 7.2 |
| Corey LaJoie | 0 | 0% | 695 | 37.9 | 39.2 | 36.2 | 3.40 | 0.00 | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 0 | 0% | 725 | 37.4 | 40.9 | 35 | -0.70 | 0.00 | 3.5 | 2.4 |
| Gray Gaulding | 0 | 0% | 132 | 36.8 | 36.8 | 36.8 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
| David Ragan | 0 | 1% | 628 | 39.5 | 42.5 | 35.5 | -2.50 | 0.00 | 3 | 4 |
| Landon Cassill | 0 | 0% | 702 | 35.7 | 41.3 | 29.4 | 2.30 | 0.00 | 5.6 | 6.3 |
| Timmy Hill | 0 | 1% | 132 | 28.7 | 28.7 | 28.7 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeffrey Earnhardt | 0 | 0% | 583 | 26.5 | 28 | 25.3 | 1.30 | 0.00 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| BJ McLeod | 0 | 0% | 309 | 25.8 | 26.8 | 24.8 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1 | 1 |
| Garrett Smithley | 0 | 0% | 1 | 23.2 | 23.2 | 23.2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 Races at Michigan International Speedway
| Avg. | Avg. | Avg. | Top | Top | Top | Top | Laps | |||
| Driver | Races | Start | Run Pos. | Finish | Wins | 5s | 10s | 15s | 20s | Led |
| Kyle Larson | 9 | 14.4 | 12.4 | 12.8 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 150 |
| Joey Logano | 10 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 335 |
| Kurt Busch | 10 | 13.3 | 11.1 | 11.6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 114 |
| Clint Bowyer | 10 | 17.6 | 16.5 | 18.5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 9 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 10 | 12.9 | 17.3 | 17.9 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 104 |
| Kevin Harvick | 10 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 7.6 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 223 |
| Paul Menard | 10 | 20 | 16.1 | 12.9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 4 |
| Brad Keselowski | 10 | 8.5 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 160 |
| Chase Elliott | 5 | 8.6 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 66 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 10 | 15.1 | 15.3 | 15.3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 136 |
| Denny Hamlin | 10 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 14.6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 25 |
| Jamie McMurray | 10 | 15.3 | 15.1 | 11.2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 4 |
| Austin Dillon | 10 | 14.1 | 15.9 | 16.2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 22 |
| Kyle Busch | 10 | 10.2 | 20.4 | 24.5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 64 |
| Ryan Newman | 10 | 16.8 | 14.7 | 13.4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 16 |
| Fast | Top 15 | Laps | Avg. | High | Low | Pos. | Laps Led | Rating | |
| Driver | Laps | Rate | Comp. | Rating | Rating | Rating | Diff. | Pts/Race | Range |
| Kyle Larson | 97 | 74% | 1567 | 99 | 140.5 | 53.6 | 1.60 | 4.17 | 86.9 |
| Joey Logano | 128 | 89% | 1871 | 112.4 | 149.2 | 85.5 | -2.50 | 8.38 | 63.7 |
| Kurt Busch | 46 | 72% | 1868 | 95 | 124.8 | 74.2 | 1.70 | 2.85 | 50.6 |
| Clint Bowyer | 26 | 54% | 922 | 82.2 | 124.2 | 50.7 | -0.90 | 0.23 | 73.5 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 92 | 46% | 1716 | 83.7 | 130.7 | 57.5 | -5.00 | 2.60 | 73.2 |
| Kevin Harvick | 176 | 89% | 1872 | 116.6 | 140.2 | 86.9 | 0.60 | 5.58 | 53.3 |
| Paul Menard | 9 | 50% | 1867 | 81.8 | 105.9 | 51.1 | 7.10 | 0.10 | 54.8 |
| Brad Keselowski | 90 | 95% | 1873 | 107.1 | 117.5 | 86 | 0.10 | 4.00 | 31.5 |
| Chase Elliott | 75 | 94% | 333 | 108.9 | 126.5 | 89.2 | 4.00 | 3.30 | 37.3 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 176 | 62% | 1845 | 88.8 | 126.4 | 33.2 | -0.20 | 3.40 | 93.2 |
| Denny Hamlin | 30 | 70% | 1859 | 88 | 108.6 | 61.2 | -4.10 | 0.63 | 47.4 |
| Jamie McMurray | 8 | 59% | 1873 | 83.7 | 100.6 | 55.5 | 4.10 | 0.10 | 45.1 |
| Austin Dillon | 28 | 55% | 1867 | 78.3 | 112.3 | 43.3 | -2.10 | 0.55 | 69 |
| Kyle Busch | 64 | 53% | 1563 | 79.2 | 121.7 | 35.7 | -14.30 | 1.60 | 86 |
| Ryan Newman | 3 | 56% | 1873 | 81.5 | 97.5 | 64.8 | 3.40 | 0.40 | 32.7 |
Last 20 Races at Similar Tracks (Auto Club, Las Vegas, Michigan, and Texas)
| Avg. | Avg. | Avg. | Top | Top | Top | Top | Laps | |||
| Driver | Races | Start | Run Pos. | Finish | Wins | 5s | 10s | 15s | 20s | Led |
| Kyle Larson | 20 | 11.7 | 12.1 | 13.7 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 325 |
| Kevin Harvick | 20 | 8.4 | 10.1 | 11.9 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 841 |
| Brad Keselowski | 20 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 15 | 18 | 349 |
| Kyle Busch | 18 | 12.2 | 10.6 | 10.9 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 387 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 20 | 8.3 | 8.9 | 10.7 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 15 | 17 | 882 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 20 | 15.3 | 13.3 | 14.3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 362 |
| Joey Logano | 20 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 1 | 11 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 585 |
| Clint Bowyer | 20 | 17.3 | 17.1 | 20.2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 10 |
| Chase Elliott | 16 | 14.3 | 9.3 | 10.4 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 80 |
| Denny Hamlin | 19 | 10.7 | 11.5 | 14.1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 15 | 168 |
| Kurt Busch | 19 | 11.6 | 14.2 | 14.6 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 14 | 185 |
| Ryan Blaney | 17 | 9.2 | 11.4 | 13.1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 164 |
| Ryan Newman | 20 | 14.7 | 15.6 | 14.8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 20 |
| Paul Menard | 20 | 19.9 | 19.8 | 18.7 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 12 |
| Jamie McMurray | 20 | 15 | 14.2 | 12.4 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 18 | 1 |
| Fast | Top 15 | Laps | Avg. | High | Low | Pos | Laps Led | Rating | |
| Driver | Laps | Rate | Comp. | Rating | Rating | Rating | Diff. | Pts./Race | Range |
| Kyle Larson | 252 | 73% | 4496 | 96.7 | 144.3 | 29.8 | -2.00 | 4.06 | 114.5 |
| Kevin Harvick | 554 | 78% | 4681 | 109.1 | 150 | 59.6 | -3.50 | 10.51 | 90.4 |
| Brad Keselowski | 272 | 84% | 4762 | 104.1 | 134.6 | 79.1 | -1.60 | 4.36 | 55.5 |
| Kyle Busch | 316 | 78% | 4295 | 101 | 135.3 | 62.8 | 1.30 | 5.38 | 72.5 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 512 | 83% | 4665 | 108.3 | 150 | 55.9 | -2.40 | 11.03 | 94.1 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 309 | 63% | 4727 | 93.8 | 130.3 | 60.6 | 1.00 | 4.53 | 69.7 |
| Joey Logano | 259 | 90% | 4908 | 106.9 | 149.2 | 72.1 | 0.00 | 7.31 | 77.1 |
| Clint Bowyer | 49 | 46% | 4149 | 75.3 | 124.2 | 40.7 | -2.90 | 0.13 | 83.5 |
| Chase Elliott | 175 | 87% | 1130 | 98.9 | 126.5 | 67.7 | 3.90 | 1.25 | 58.8 |
| Denny Hamlin | 105 | 78% | 4543 | 91 | 116.7 | 55 | -3.40 | 2.21 | 61.7 |
| Kurt Busch | 135 | 61% | 4560 | 85.2 | 135.4 | 36 | -3.00 | 2.43 | 99.4 |
| Ryan Blaney | 169 | 74% | 4224 | 93.5 | 121.8 | 63 | -3.90 | 2.41 | 58.8 |
| Ryan Newman | 23 | 51% | 4884 | 76.2 | 103.4 | 51.7 | -0.10 | 0.25 | 51.7 |
| Paul Menard | 60 | 34% | 4764 | 68.9 | 108.1 | 32.8 | 1.20 | 0.15 | 75.3 |
| Jamie McMurray | 23 | 65% | 4827 | 81.9 | 105.4 | 58.8 | 2.60 | 0.01 | 46.6 |
Momentum
| Avg. | Avg. | Avg. | Top | Top | Top | Top | Pos | Avg. | |||
| Driver | Races | Start | Run Pos. | Finish | Wins | 5s | 10s | 15s | 20s | Diff. | Rating |
| Martin Truex Jr | 5 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0.8 | 114.9 |
| Kyle Busch | 5 | 10.6 | 9 | 8.6 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 109.4 |
| Kevin Harvick | 5 | 13.2 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5.4 | 107.8 |
| Erik Jones | 5 | 10 | 11 | 6.8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3.2 | 95.7 |
| Chase Elliott | 5 | 7.2 | 9.8 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -4.8 | 108.5 |
| Daniel Suarez | 5 | 14.8 | 16.6 | 15.6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -0.8 | 77.2 |
| Ryan Blaney | 5 | 13.6 | 13.6 | 14.6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 92.3 |
| Alex Bowman | 5 | 11.4 | 15.8 | 15.4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 80.8 |
| Aric Almirola | 5 | 18.4 | 17.2 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.4 | 78.5 |
| AJ Allmendinger | 5 | 17.6 | 23 | 19.6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 57.8 |
| Brad Keselowski | 5 | 6.8 | 16.6 | 25.2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -18.4 | 78 |
| Chris Buescher | 5 | 20.2 | 22.8 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -0.8 | 60.4 |
| Kasey Kahne | 5 | 26.6 | 20.8 | 19.8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6.8 | 59.2 |
| Kurt Busch | 5 | 15.2 | 13.6 | 13.8 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1.4 | 91.4 |
| Ryan Newman | 5 | 12.6 | 15.2 | 12.4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0.2 | 76.8 |
Points Changes at Michigan
DraftKings
| 17 Race | Season | DK Pts +/- | |
| Driver | Total | Avg DK Pts. | Season AVG |
| Martin Truex Jr | 99.75 | 50.22 | 49.5 |
| Trevor Bayne | 58 | 18.43 | 39.6 |
| Ryan Newman | 61 | 24.18 | 36.8 |
| Chris Buescher | 52.5 | 25.66 | 26.8 |
| Erik Jones | 51.75 | 31.92 | 19.8 |
| Austin Dillon | 47 | 27.25 | 19.8 |
| Brad Keselowski | 50.25 | 32.27 | 18.0 |
| Kyle Larson | 56.5 | 41.14 | 15.4 |
| Ty Dillon | 35 | 23.59 | 11.4 |
| Jamie McMurray | 33.5 | 24.3 | 9.2 |
| Landon Cassill | 26 | 18.09 | 7.9 |
| AJ Allmendinger | 33 | 26.27 | 6.7 |
| Aric Almirola | 44 | 39.83 | 4.2 |
| BJ McLeod | 11 | 10.12 | 0.9 |
| Corey LaJoie | 16 | 15.43 | 0.6 |
| Kurt Busch | 37.5 | 39.14 | -1.6 |
| Chase Elliott | 34 | 36.06 | -2.1 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 19 | 21.83 | -2.8 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 22 | 25.24 | -3.2 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 28 | 33.56 | -5.6 |
| Ryan Blaney | 28.5 | 34.29 | -5.8 |
| Michael McDowell | 16 | 23.75 | -7.8 |
| Denny Hamlin | 30.5 | 38.55 | -8.1 |
| Jeffrey Earnhardt | 10 | 20.33 | -10.3 |
| David Ragan | 12 | 23.06 | -11.1 |
| Paul Menard | 6 | 25.9 | -19.9 |
| Kyle Busch | 39 | 64.26 | -25.3 |
| Clint Bowyer | 10 | 43.2 | -33.2 |
| Kasey Kahne | -8 | 26.6 | -34.6 |
| Kevin Harvick | 30 | 66.35 | -36.4 |
| Daniel Suarez | -10.75 | 27.91 | -38.7 |
| Joey Logano | -10 | 36.24 | -46.2 |
| Avg. +/- | 17.5 |
FanDuel
| 17 Race | 18 Season | FD Pts +/- | |
| Driver | Total | Avg FD Pts. | Season AVG |
| Ryan Newman | 67.7 | 44.57 | 23.13 |
| Trevor Bayne | 64.2 | 42.16 | 22.04 |
| Chris Buescher | 62.2 | 43.30 | 18.90 |
| Kyle Larson | 67.4 | 52.97 | 14.43 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 71.4 | 58.35 | 13.05 |
| Austin Dillon | 59.2 | 46.52 | 12.68 |
| Erik Jones | 61.2 | 50.60 | 10.60 |
| Jamie McMurray | 51.2 | 44.28 | 6.92 |
| Landon Cassill | 39.5 | 35.49 | 4.01 |
| Corey LaJoie | 31.4 | 27.84 | 3.56 |
| Ty Dillon | 46.2 | 42.80 | 3.40 |
| AJ Allmendinger | 45.7 | 44.33 | 1.37 |
| Aric Almirola | 55.2 | 53.99 | 1.21 |
| Chase Elliott | 51.7 | 51.70 | 0.00 |
| Brad Keselowski | 46.7 | 46.98 | -0.28 |
| Kurt Busch | 52.2 | 52.56 | -0.36 |
| BJ McLeod | 24.3 | 26.45 | -2.15 |
| Ryan Blaney | 44.7 | 47.25 | -2.55 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 41.2 | 45.20 | -4.00 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 35.5 | 40.89 | -5.39 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 43.7 | 49.73 | -6.03 |
| Michael McDowell | 33.5 | 39.80 | -6.30 |
| Denny Hamlin | 43.8 | 53.60 | -9.80 |
| Jeffrey Earnhardt | 26.1 | 38.20 | -12.10 |
| David Ragan | 29.9 | 43.04 | -13.14 |
| Kyle Busch | 50.6 | 63.89 | -13.29 |
| Kevin Harvick | 43.2 | 62.41 | -19.21 |
| Paul Menard | 24.6 | 46.07 | -21.47 |
| Clint Bowyer | 32.2 | 56.94 | -24.74 |
| Joey Logano | 20 | 54.04 | -34.04 |
| Kasey Kahne | 9.3 | 43.35 | -34.05 |
| Daniel Suarez | 7.6 | 46.31 | -38.71 |
| Avg. +/- | 11.97 |
Top-10 and Bottom-10 Values
DraftKings
| Rank | Driver | Value | Rank | Driver | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Harvick | 5.44 | 40 | Garrett Smithley | 1.30 |
| 2 | Kyle Busch | 5.40 | 39 | BJ McLeod | 2.11 |
| 3 | Aric Almirola | 4.86 | 38 | Timmy Hill | 2.70 |
| 4 | Kurt Busch | 4.66 | 37 | Corey Lajoie | 2.91 |
| 5 | Alex Bowman | 4.57 | 36 | Trevor Bayne | 3.18 |
| 6 | Clint Bowyer | 4.45 | 35 | Jamie McMurray | 3.20 |
| 7 | Martin Truex Jr | 4.29 | 34 | Blake Jones | 3.33 |
| 8 | AJ Allmendinger | 4.17 | 33 | Gray Gaulding | 3.35 |
| 9 | Jeffrey Earnhardt | 4.15 | 32 | Brad Keselowski | 3.40 |
| 10 | Chris Buescher | 4.14 | 31 | Ryan Newman | 3.45 |
FanDuel
| Rank | Driver | Value | Rank | Driver | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt DiBenedetto | 8.18 | 40 | Garrett Smithley | 3.16 |
| 2 | David Ragan | 7.83 | 39 | Kyle Larson | 4.49 |
| 3 | Ty Dillon | 7.78 | 38 | Brad Keselowski | 4.52 |
| 4 | Blake Jones | 7.78 | 37 | Martin Truex Jr. | 4.67 |
| 5 | Ross Chastain | 7.75 | 36 | Ryan Blaney | 4.82 |
| 6 | Jeffrey Earnhardt | 7.64 | 35 | Chase Elliott | 4.88 |
| 7 | Gray Gaulding | 7.41 | 34 | Kevin Harvick | 4.91 |
| 8 | Landon Cassill | 7.10 | 33 | Kurt Busch | 5.15 |
| 9 | Chris Buescher | 6.98 | 32 | Clint Bowyer | 5.18 |
| 10 | Bubba Wallace | 6.82 | 31 | Kyle Busch | 5.24 |
Price Changes Between Michigan Races
DraftKings
| Michigan Race DraftKings Price Changes | |||
| Driver | June Race | August Race | Difference |
| AJ Allmendinger | 6500 | 6300 | -200 |
| Alex Bowman | 7800 | 6600 | -1200 |
| Aric Almirola | 8200 | 8200 | 0 |
| Austin Dillon | 7400 | 7400 | 0 |
| BJ McLeod | 4900 | 4800 | -100 |
| Brad Keselowski | 10100 | 9500 | -600 |
| Bubba Wallace | 6100 | 6400 | 300 |
| Chase Elliott | 9000 | 8900 | -100 |
| Chris Buescher | 5900 | 6200 | 300 |
| Clint Bowyer | 9500 | 9700 | 200 |
| Corey Lajoie | 5000 | 5300 | 300 |
| Daniel Suarez | 7300 | 7800 | 500 |
| David Ragan | 5700 | 6000 | 300 |
| Denny Hamlin | 9200 | 10200 | 1000 |
| Erik Jones | 8400 | 8000 | -400 |
| Garrett Smithley | 4600 | 4600 | 0 |
| Gray Gaulding | 4700 | 5100 | 400 |
| Jamie McMurray | 7600 | 7600 | 0 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 8500 | 9200 | 700 |
| Joey Logano | 9800 | 9900 | 100 |
| Kasey Kahne | 6600 | 6500 | -100 |
| Kevin Harvick | 12000 | 12200 | 200 |
| Kurt Busch | 8000 | 8400 | 400 |
| Kyle Busch | 11600 | 11900 | 300 |
| Kyle Larson | 10500 | 10600 | 100 |
| Landon Cassill | 5200 | 5200 | 0 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 10700 | 11700 | 1000 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 5400 | 5400 | 0 |
| Michael McDowell | 5800 | 5900 | 100 |
| Paul Menard | 6800 | 7200 | 400 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 7000 | 6700 | -300 |
| Ross Chastain | 5100 | 5500 | 400 |
| Ryan Blaney | 8800 | 8700 | -100 |
| Ryan Newman | 7700 | 7000 | -700 |
| Timmy Hill | 4500 | 4700 | 200 |
| Ty Dillon | 5600 | 5700 | 100 |
| William Byron | 6300 | 6800 | 500 |
FanDuel
| Michigan FanDuel Price Changes | |||
| Driver | June Race | August Race | Difference |
| AJ Allmendinger | 8300 | 7100 | -1200 |
| Alex Bowman | 7500 | 8200 | 700 |
| Aric Almirola | 9300 | 9000 | -300 |
| Austin Dillon | 8500 | 7400 | -1100 |
| Brad Keselowski | 11300 | 10400 | -900 |
| Bubba Wallace | 7000 | 6500 | -500 |
| Chase Elliott | 10600 | 10600 | 0 |
| Chris Buescher | 6800 | 6200 | -600 |
| Clint Bowyer | 10100 | 11000 | 900 |
| Corey LaJoie | 5000 | 5000 | 0 |
| Daniel Suarez | 9000 | 8400 | -600 |
| David Ragan | 7300 | 5500 | -1800 |
| Denny Hamlin | 11000 | 10100 | -900 |
| Erik Jones | 9600 | 9400 | -200 |
| Garrett Smithley | 5000 | 5000 | 0 |
| Gray Gaulding | 5000 | 5000 | 0 |
| Jamie McMurray | 9200 | 8000 | -1200 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 9800 | 8700 | -1100 |
| Joey Logano | 10900 | 10000 | -900 |
| Kasey Kahne | 7700 | 7000 | -700 |
| Kevin Harvick | 12500 | 12700 | 200 |
| Kurt Busch | 10300 | 10200 | -100 |
| Kyle Busch | 11600 | 12200 | 600 |
| Kyle Larson | 11500 | 11800 | 300 |
| Landon Cassill | 5000 | 5000 | 0 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 12000 | 12500 | 500 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 5500 | 5000 | -500 |
| Michael McDowell | 6000 | 6000 | 0 |
| Paul Menard | 7900 | 7600 | -300 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 8700 | 6800 | -1900 |
| Ross Chastain | 5000 | 5000 | 0 |
| Ryan Blaney | 10000 | 9800 | -200 |
| Ryan Newman | 8100 | 7300 | -800 |
| Timmy Hill | 5000 | 5000 | 0 |
| Ty Dillon | 6500 | 5500 | -1000 |
| William Byron | 7100 | 7700 | 600 |
Drivers To Watch This Week
Kyle Larson: Larson has pretty much disappeared from the radar much of the last several races but now it’s back to a track that he has flat-out owned in the last four trips to the Irish Hills. In that span he has three wins, 140 laps led, and 70 fastest laps and a very high 114.2 driver rating. He is still sitting without a win on the year, though he is safely in the playoffs right now, and this might be his best chance to fully lock in that spot before Las Vegas kicks off the playoffs in six weeks. Larson is a full $1,100 cheaper than the cheapest of the big three on DraftKings and $400 less on FanDuel making him quite affordable as a main piece of the lineup on either site.
Clint Bowyer: Bowyer won here in June in a rain-shortened even with some nice pit strategy and the ability to hold off his hard-charging teammate, Kevin Harvick, for the win. That performance however accounts for all of the stats he’s posted over the last four, no other finish has been inside the top-20 and the eight laps led and 16 fastest laps are all from June of this year. In the last 10 races here he does have five top-10s which is nice, but momentum isn’t going his way right now with only three top-20 or better finishes in the last five on the season and none inside the top-10. Bowyer is more expensive on both sites than in June’s race which limits his value some more too.
Chase Elliott: Elliott is coming off his first win in the MENCS at Watkins Glen last week and now gets to race at a track that he (and his dad) have had a lot of success at. In the five races total he’s run here, Elliott hasn’t finished worse than P9 and that was in June. Aside from that he has three runner-up finishes and an eighth place finish to go with 66 laps led and 75 fastest laps in those five races. His average finish of 4.6 is the best since the repave before the 2012 season (though it’s a smaller sample than most) and his 108.9 driver rating puts him third in that stat. He is nearly the same price he was in June being even on FanDuel and $100 less on DraftKings this time around which makes him another intriguing option once more.
Brad Keselowski: Keselowski has been pretty solid here of late with a top-five, two top-10s, four top-20s, 121 laps led, and 52 fastest laps in the last four races. In the last 10 though he has three top-fives, seven top-10s, and 160 laps led with an average finish of 8.4 in that span. The one thing missing from his record here is the win he so badly wants. Not only does he want it for Ford and Roger Penske (who used to own the track) but also because he’d become the first Michigan-born driver to ever win at the track. Keselwoski is $10,400 on DK and $9,500 on FD which makes him between $600-$900 cheaper than in June. If he can show speed, he’ll be a good value at that price.
Erik Jones: Like Keselowski above him, Jones is a Michigan native and a guy that really wants to win at his home track. In three races here he has a top-five and top-10 and three top-15s. Five laps led and 18 fastest laps in that span. That’s not much to go on but he also does have a P4 finish in his lone Xfinity race at the track. HIs momentum is certainly on the upswing with a win, three top-fives, and four top-10s in the last five races this season across multiple style of tracks and with him being cheaper this week than back in June, his value is going up too.