There are just four races left until the Chase starts the second weekend of September. Before it starts though there is a 2-mile D-shaped Oval to contend with this weekend. Known as the fastest track in NASCAR, Michigan International Speedway is located in Brooklyn, Michigan in the Irish Hills part of the state. Gently rolling hills and small town speed limits belie the aggressiveness and speeds that happen at MIS.

The speed at MIS comes from not only the shape of the track but also the banking in the turns at 18 degrees. The curved front stretch is banked at 12 degrees and with the shape it allows the cars to keep the momentum going and just build upon the speed that’s already present. That being said, it’s not just smooth sailing at the track and there are tricky parts to it. It is mostly a single-groove track, though the outer most lane does come in (seemingly only for Kyle Larson though). It is impressively hard to pass on this track, as evidenced by the three drivers with a +6 position differential in the last 3-4 races. Bubba Wallace is at +8 but only has two races at the track. This race is the 14th race since they repaved the surface yet multiple grooves still haven’t come in, though the track has been dragging the tire dragon for a few days this week in order to add rubber to the surface and wear in the surface even faster.

There have been 98 races at the track since racing started there in 1969 and 21 winners have started on the pole, that doesn’t include those starting inside the top-five in that time either. The pace of pole winners winning however has picked up recently with five of the last 10 winners starting atop the grid. Three of the last 10 have started in the double-digits including two from 12th. The five races before the last 10 all had winners from starting spots of 10, 17, 17, 13, and 19.

Ford has been the most dominant manufacturer at Michigan, being that it’s in Ford’s backyard, with 36 wins at the track. Roush-Fenway Racing has the most wins with 13 while the Wood Brothers are a close second with 11 and Hendrick Motorsports with eight.

With this being an intermediate style track and the race consisting of 200 laps, chasing laps led and fastest laps as the bonuses makes some sense, but that lap total is still lower than most other intermediate tracks run. In DraftKings there is a total 150 dominator points available between fastest laps and laps led and in FanDuel for you lineup there is a total of 120 bonus points between laps completed and laps led with really only 20 points to get split for leading laps. That’s not to much to bank on to boost the score so focusing on the guys who can keep their positions or move up some, and try and nail down the guy who will lead the most laps on Sunday is the way to go.

Track Breakdown

Last Four Races at Michigan International Speedway

    Avg. Avg. Avg.   Top Top Top Top Laps
Driver Races Start Run Pos. Finish Wins 5s 10s 15s 20s Led
Kyle Larson 4 12 9 7.8 3 3 3 3 3 140
Clint Bowyer 4 13.3 15 22.5 1 1 1 1 1 8
Chase Elliott 4 8.3 8.3 5.3 0 2 4 4 4 31
Kevin Harvick 4 5.5 6 8.5 0 2 2 4 4 82
Jamie McMurray 4 11.8 12.8 8 0 1 4 4 4 0
Kyle Busch 4 7.3 11.8 10 0 1 3 3 4 54
Joey Logano 4 3.8 9.5 12 0 1 3 3 3 24
Denny Hamlin 4 7 9.3 10.3 0 1 2 3 4 16
Ryan Blaney 4 8.5 8.8 13 0 1 2 3 3 15
Martin Truex Jr 4 11.5 9 11.5 0 1 2 2 4 126
Brad Keselowski 4 8.3 7.5 10.5 0 1 2 2 4 121
Kurt Busch 4 12.5 12 9.5 0 1 1 4 4 46
Erik Jones 3 10 13 10.3 0 1 1 3 3 5
Ryan Newman 4 16.3 16.8 14.5 0 1 1 2 3 1
Paul Menard 4 23.8 20.8 19.8 0 1 1 1 2 3
Trevor Bayne 3 24 19.7 15.3 0 1 1 1 2 0
Jimmie Johnson 4 14.3 15.5 13.8 0 0 2 2 4 37
Austin Dillon 4 17 16.8 16 0 0 1 2 3 1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr 4 17.8 19.8 20.5 0 0 1 1 2 0
Chris Buescher 4 20.8 27 25.3 0 0 1 1 1 0
Aric Almirola 3 18.7 18.3 16 0 0 0 2 2 0
AJ Allmendinger 4 26 22 17.5 0 0 0 1 4 0
Kasey Kahne 4 19.8 17.3 24 0 0 0 1 1 11
William Byron 1 14 9 13 0 0 0 1 1 0
Darrell Wallace Jr 2 27 22.5 19 0 0 0 0 2 0
Ty Dillon 3 33.7 26.3 20.7 0 0 0 0 1 0
Alex Bowman 2 13.5 23 23 0 0 0 0 1 0
Daniel Suarez 3 19.3 21 30.3 0 0 0 0 0 3
Blake Jones 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ross Chastain 1 33 29 26 0 0 0 0 0 0
Michael McDowell 4 26.5 27.3 26.5 0 0 0 0 0 0
Corey LaJoie 3 32.7 31.3 29.3 0 0 0 0 0 0
Matt DiBenedetto 4 29.8 31.8 30.5 0 0 0 0 0 0
Gray Gaulding 1 34 32 31 0 0 0 0 0 0
David Ragan 4 29 31.3 31.5 0 0 0 0 0 0
Landon Cassill 4 34.3 31.8 32 0 0 0 0 0 0
Timmy Hill 1 38 34 35 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jeffrey Earnhardt 3 37 36.3 35.7 0 0 0 0 0 0
BJ McLeod 2 37 37.5 36.5 0 0 0 0 0 0
Garrett Smithley 1 39 38 39 0 0 0 0 0 0

 

  Fast Top 15 Laps Avg. High Low Pos Laps Led High to Low to
Driver Laps Rate Comp. Rating Rating Rating Diff Pts./Race Avg Rating Avg Rating
Kyle Larson 70 87% 735 114.2 140.5 82.2 4.20 8.75 26.3 32
Clint Bowyer 16 59% 722 84.7 124.2 50.8 -9.20 0.50 39.5 33.9
Chase Elliott 44 93% 333 105.2 126.5 89.2 3.00 1.94 21.3 16
Kevin Harvick 60 90% 735 116.1 140.2 86.9 -3.00 5.13 24.1 29.2
Jamie McMurray 3 78% 735 87.5 89.1 84.7 3.80 0.00 1.6 2.8
Kyle Busch 57 70% 734 96 121.7 65.2 -2.70 3.38 25.7 30.8
Joey Logano 9 88% 733 96.3 102.7 85.5 -8.20 1.50 6.4 10.8
Denny Hamlin 18 93% 735 95.3 108.6 84.4 -3.30 1.00 13.3 10.9
Ryan Blaney 32 86% 735 99.1 115.2 84.4 -4.50 0.94 16.1 14.7
Martin Truex Jr 127 82% 734 102.7 126.4 75 0.00 7.88 23.7 27.7
Brad Keselowski 52 92% 735 105.4 117.5 86 -2.20 7.56 12.1 19.4
Kurt Busch 14 67% 735 89.8 124.8 74.2 3.00 2.88 35 15.6
Erik Jones 18 70% 535 90.8 115.8 75.7 -0.30 0.42 25 15.1
Ryan Newman 1 40% 735 72.6 76.2 64.8 1.80 0.06 3.6 7.8
Paul Menard 2 23% 729 66.1 83.7 51.1 4.00 0.19 17.6 15
Trevor Bayne 6 11% 600 67 77 58.8 8.70 0.00 10 8.2
Jimmie Johnson 17 43% 735 80.8 119 63.3 0.50 2.31 38.2 17.5
Austin Dillon 2 46% 734 69.5 82.3 43.3 1.00 0.06 12.8 26.2
Ricky Stenhouse Jr 0 28% 733 65 78.2 51 -2.70 0.00 13.2 14
Chris Buescher 1 5% 735 51.5 72.6 29.4 -4.50 0.00 21.1 22.1
Aric Almirola 2 32% 533 71.8 90.7 54.3 2.70 0.00 18.9 17.5
AJ Allmendinger 3 11% 735 62 77 54 8.50 0.00 15 8
Kasey Kahne 4 49% 671 70.7 93 56.8 -4.20 0.69 22.3 13.9
William Byron 0 100% 133 95.5 95.5 95.5 1.00 0.00 0 0
Darrell Wallace Jr 0 3% 470 58.9 60.3 57.5 8.00 0.00 1.4 1.4
Ty Dillon 0 0% 535 51 51.8 49.8 13.00 0.00 0.8 1.2
Alex Bowman 5 20% 328 70.1 70.2 70 -9.50 0.00 0.1 0.1
Daniel Suarez 5 26% 529 67.9 78.9 61.7 -11.00 0.25 11 6.2
Blake Jones 0 0% 0 0 0 0 0.00   0 0
Ross Chastain 0 2% 133 45 45 45 7.00 0.00 0 0
Michael McDowell 0 0% 728 46.7 49.8 39.5 0.00 0.00 3.1 7.2
Corey LaJoie 0 0% 695 37.9 39.2 36.2 3.40 0.00 1.3 1.7
Matt DiBenedetto 0 0% 725 37.4 40.9 35 -0.70 0.00 3.5 2.4
Gray Gaulding 0 0% 132 36.8 36.8 36.8 3.00 0.00 0 0
David Ragan 0 1% 628 39.5 42.5 35.5 -2.50 0.00 3 4
Landon Cassill 0 0% 702 35.7 41.3 29.4 2.30 0.00 5.6 6.3
Timmy Hill 0 1% 132 28.7 28.7 28.7 3.00 0.00 0 0
Jeffrey Earnhardt 0 0% 583 26.5 28 25.3 1.30 0.00 1.5 1.2
BJ McLeod 0 0% 309 25.8 26.8 24.8 0.50 0.00 1 1
Garrett Smithley 0 0% 1 23.2 23.2 23.2 0.00 0.00 0 0

 

Last 10 Races at Michigan International Speedway

    Avg. Avg. Avg.   Top Top Top Top Laps
Driver Races Start Run Pos. Finish Wins 5s 10s 15s 20s Led
Kyle Larson 9 14.4 12.4 12.8 3 4 5 6 7 150
Joey Logano 10 4.9 7.5 7.4 2 5 9 9 9 335
Kurt Busch 10 13.3 11.1 11.6 1 3 4 8 9 114
Clint Bowyer 10 17.6 16.5 18.5 1 2 5 5 5 9
Jimmie Johnson 10 12.9 17.3 17.9 1 1 4 4 8 104
Kevin Harvick 10 8.2 6.7 7.6 0 7 7 9 9 223
Paul Menard 10 20 16.1 12.9 0 4 5 6 8 4
Brad Keselowski 10 8.5 7.2 8.4 0 3 7 8 10 160
Chase Elliott 5 8.6 7.6 4.6 0 3 5 5 5 66
Martin Truex Jr 10 15.1 15.3 15.3 0 3 4 5 8 136
Denny Hamlin 10 10.5 12.9 14.6 0 2 4 6 8 25
Jamie McMurray 10 15.3 15.1 11.2 0 1 6 8 9 4
Austin Dillon 10 14.1 15.9 16.2 0 1 3 5 7 22
Kyle Busch 10 10.2 20.4 24.5 0 1 3 4 5 64
Ryan Newman 10 16.8 14.7 13.4 0 1 2 7 9 16

 

  Fast Top 15 Laps Avg. High Low Pos. Laps Led Rating
Driver Laps Rate Comp. Rating Rating Rating Diff. Pts/Race Range
Kyle Larson 97 74% 1567 99 140.5 53.6 1.60 4.17 86.9
Joey Logano 128 89% 1871 112.4 149.2 85.5 -2.50 8.38 63.7
Kurt Busch 46 72% 1868 95 124.8 74.2 1.70 2.85 50.6
Clint Bowyer 26 54% 922 82.2 124.2 50.7 -0.90 0.23 73.5
Jimmie Johnson 92 46% 1716 83.7 130.7 57.5 -5.00 2.60 73.2
Kevin Harvick 176 89% 1872 116.6 140.2 86.9 0.60 5.58 53.3
Paul Menard 9 50% 1867 81.8 105.9 51.1 7.10 0.10 54.8
Brad Keselowski 90 95% 1873 107.1 117.5 86 0.10 4.00 31.5
Chase Elliott 75 94% 333 108.9 126.5 89.2 4.00 3.30 37.3
Martin Truex Jr 176 62% 1845 88.8 126.4 33.2 -0.20 3.40 93.2
Denny Hamlin 30 70% 1859 88 108.6 61.2 -4.10 0.63 47.4
Jamie McMurray 8 59% 1873 83.7 100.6 55.5 4.10 0.10 45.1
Austin Dillon 28 55% 1867 78.3 112.3 43.3 -2.10 0.55 69
Kyle Busch 64 53% 1563 79.2 121.7 35.7 -14.30 1.60 86
Ryan Newman 3 56% 1873 81.5 97.5 64.8 3.40 0.40 32.7

 

Last 20 Races at Similar Tracks (Auto Club, Las Vegas, Michigan, and Texas)

    Avg. Avg. Avg.   Top Top Top Top Laps
Driver Races Start Run Pos. Finish Wins 5s 10s 15s 20s Led
Kyle Larson 20 11.7 12.1 13.7 4 10 11 13 14 325
Kevin Harvick 20 8.4 10.1 11.9 3 10 13 16 16 841
Brad Keselowski 20 7.6 9.3 9.2 3 9 14 15 18 349
Kyle Busch 18 12.2 10.6 10.9 3 8 11 13 15 387
Martin Truex Jr 20 8.3 8.9 10.7 2 8 12 15 17 882
Jimmie Johnson 20 15.3 13.3 14.3 2 4 9 12 15 362
Joey Logano 20 7.9 7.9 7.9 1 11 18 18 18 585
Clint Bowyer 20 17.3 17.1 20.2 1 2 4 6 9 10
Chase Elliott 16 14.3 9.3 10.4 0 6 12 13 14 80
Denny Hamlin 19 10.7 11.5 14.1 0 4 8 12 15 168
Kurt Busch 19 11.6 14.2 14.6 0 3 9 13 14 185
Ryan Blaney 17 9.2 11.4 13.1 0 3 9 12 14 164
Ryan Newman 20 14.7 15.6 14.8 0 3 5 11 16 20
Paul Menard 20 19.9 19.8 18.7 0 3 5 8 12 12
Jamie McMurray 20 15 14.2 12.4 0 2 11 14 18 1

 

  Fast Top 15 Laps Avg. High Low Pos Laps Led Rating
Driver Laps Rate Comp. Rating Rating Rating Diff. Pts./Race Range
Kyle Larson 252 73% 4496 96.7 144.3 29.8 -2.00 4.06 114.5
Kevin Harvick 554 78% 4681 109.1 150 59.6 -3.50 10.51 90.4
Brad Keselowski 272 84% 4762 104.1 134.6 79.1 -1.60 4.36 55.5
Kyle Busch 316 78% 4295 101 135.3 62.8 1.30 5.38 72.5
Martin Truex Jr 512 83% 4665 108.3 150 55.9 -2.40 11.03 94.1
Jimmie Johnson 309 63% 4727 93.8 130.3 60.6 1.00 4.53 69.7
Joey Logano 259 90% 4908 106.9 149.2 72.1 0.00 7.31 77.1
Clint Bowyer 49 46% 4149 75.3 124.2 40.7 -2.90 0.13 83.5
Chase Elliott 175 87% 1130 98.9 126.5 67.7 3.90 1.25 58.8
Denny Hamlin 105 78% 4543 91 116.7 55 -3.40 2.21 61.7
Kurt Busch 135 61% 4560 85.2 135.4 36 -3.00 2.43 99.4
Ryan Blaney 169 74% 4224 93.5 121.8 63 -3.90 2.41 58.8
Ryan Newman 23 51% 4884 76.2 103.4 51.7 -0.10 0.25 51.7
Paul Menard 60 34% 4764 68.9 108.1 32.8 1.20 0.15 75.3
Jamie McMurray 23 65% 4827 81.9 105.4 58.8 2.60 0.01 46.6

 

Momentum

    Avg. Avg. Avg.   Top Top Top Top Pos Avg.
Driver Races Start Run Pos. Finish Wins 5s 10s 15s 20s Diff. Rating
Martin Truex Jr 5 5.6 6.8 4.8 1 4 4 5 5 0.8 114.9
Kyle Busch 5 10.6 9 8.6 1 4 4 4 4 2 109.4
Kevin Harvick 5 13.2 8.6 7.8 1 3 4 4 5 5.4 107.8
Erik Jones 5 10 11 6.8 1 3 4 4 5 3.2 95.7
Chase Elliott 5 7.2 9.8 12 1 2 3 4 4 -4.8 108.5
Daniel Suarez 5 14.8 16.6 15.6 0 2 2 3 3 -0.8 77.2
Ryan Blaney 5 13.6 13.6 14.6 0 1 2 4 4 -1 92.3
Alex Bowman 5 11.4 15.8 15.4 0 1 2 4 4 -4 80.8
Aric Almirola 5 18.4 17.2 17 0 1 2 2 2 1.4 78.5
AJ Allmendinger 5 17.6 23 19.6 0 1 1 3 3 -2 57.8
Brad Keselowski 5 6.8 16.6 25.2 0 1 1 1 2 -18.4 78
Chris Buescher 5 20.2 22.8 21 0 1 1 1 3 -0.8 60.4
Kasey Kahne 5 26.6 20.8 19.8 0 1 1 1 2 6.8 59.2
Kurt Busch 5 15.2 13.6 13.8 0 0 4 4 4 1.4 91.4
Ryan Newman 5 12.6 15.2 12.4 0 0 3 3 4 0.2 76.8

 

Points Changes at Michigan

DraftKings

  17 Race Season DK Pts +/-
Driver Total Avg DK Pts. Season AVG
Martin Truex Jr 99.75 50.22 49.5
Trevor Bayne 58 18.43 39.6
Ryan Newman 61 24.18 36.8
Chris Buescher 52.5 25.66 26.8
Erik Jones 51.75 31.92 19.8
Austin Dillon 47 27.25 19.8
Brad Keselowski 50.25 32.27 18.0
Kyle Larson 56.5 41.14 15.4
Ty Dillon 35 23.59 11.4
Jamie McMurray 33.5 24.3 9.2
Landon Cassill 26 18.09 7.9
AJ Allmendinger 33 26.27 6.7
Aric Almirola 44 39.83 4.2
BJ McLeod 11 10.12 0.9
Corey LaJoie 16 15.43 0.6
Kurt Busch 37.5 39.14 -1.6
Chase Elliott 34 36.06 -2.1
Matt DiBenedetto 19 21.83 -2.8
Ricky Stenhouse Jr 22 25.24 -3.2
Jimmie Johnson 28 33.56 -5.6
Ryan Blaney 28.5 34.29 -5.8
Michael McDowell 16 23.75 -7.8
Denny Hamlin 30.5 38.55 -8.1
Jeffrey Earnhardt 10 20.33 -10.3
David Ragan 12 23.06 -11.1
Paul Menard 6 25.9 -19.9
Kyle Busch 39 64.26 -25.3
Clint Bowyer 10 43.2 -33.2
Kasey Kahne -8 26.6 -34.6
Kevin Harvick 30 66.35 -36.4
Daniel Suarez -10.75 27.91 -38.7
Joey Logano -10 36.24 -46.2
       
    Avg. +/- 17.5

 

FanDuel

  17 Race 18 Season FD Pts +/-
Driver Total Avg FD Pts. Season AVG
Ryan Newman 67.7 44.57 23.13
Trevor Bayne 64.2 42.16 22.04
Chris Buescher 62.2 43.30 18.90
Kyle Larson 67.4 52.97 14.43
Martin Truex Jr 71.4 58.35 13.05
Austin Dillon 59.2 46.52 12.68
Erik Jones 61.2 50.60 10.60
Jamie McMurray 51.2 44.28 6.92
Landon Cassill 39.5 35.49 4.01
Corey LaJoie 31.4 27.84 3.56
Ty Dillon 46.2 42.80 3.40
AJ Allmendinger 45.7 44.33 1.37
Aric Almirola 55.2 53.99 1.21
Chase Elliott 51.7 51.70 0.00
Brad Keselowski 46.7 46.98 -0.28
Kurt Busch 52.2 52.56 -0.36
BJ McLeod 24.3 26.45 -2.15
Ryan Blaney 44.7 47.25 -2.55
Ricky Stenhouse Jr 41.2 45.20 -4.00
Matt DiBenedetto 35.5 40.89 -5.39
Jimmie Johnson 43.7 49.73 -6.03
Michael McDowell 33.5 39.80 -6.30
Denny Hamlin 43.8 53.60 -9.80
Jeffrey Earnhardt 26.1 38.20 -12.10
David Ragan 29.9 43.04 -13.14
Kyle Busch 50.6 63.89 -13.29
Kevin Harvick 43.2 62.41 -19.21
Paul Menard 24.6 46.07 -21.47
Clint Bowyer 32.2 56.94 -24.74
Joey Logano 20 54.04 -34.04
Kasey Kahne 9.3 43.35 -34.05
Daniel Suarez 7.6 46.31 -38.71
       
    Avg. +/- 11.97

 

Top-10 and Bottom-10 Values

DraftKings

Rank Driver Value Rank Driver Value
1 Kevin Harvick 5.44 40 Garrett Smithley 1.30
2 Kyle Busch 5.40 39 BJ McLeod 2.11
3 Aric Almirola 4.86 38 Timmy Hill 2.70
4 Kurt Busch 4.66 37 Corey Lajoie 2.91
5 Alex Bowman 4.57 36 Trevor Bayne 3.18
6 Clint Bowyer 4.45 35 Jamie McMurray 3.20
7 Martin Truex Jr 4.29 34 Blake Jones 3.33
8 AJ Allmendinger 4.17 33 Gray Gaulding 3.35
9 Jeffrey Earnhardt 4.15 32 Brad Keselowski 3.40
10 Chris Buescher 4.14 31 Ryan Newman 3.45

 

FanDuel

Rank Driver Value Rank Driver Value
1 Matt DiBenedetto 8.18 40 Garrett Smithley 3.16
2 David Ragan 7.83 39 Kyle Larson 4.49
3 Ty Dillon 7.78 38 Brad Keselowski 4.52
4 Blake Jones 7.78 37 Martin Truex Jr. 4.67
5 Ross Chastain 7.75 36 Ryan Blaney 4.82
6 Jeffrey Earnhardt 7.64 35 Chase Elliott 4.88
7 Gray Gaulding 7.41 34 Kevin Harvick 4.91
8 Landon Cassill 7.10 33 Kurt Busch 5.15
9 Chris Buescher 6.98 32 Clint Bowyer 5.18
10 Bubba Wallace 6.82 31 Kyle Busch 5.24

 

Price Changes Between Michigan Races

DraftKings

Michigan Race DraftKings Price Changes
Driver June Race August Race Difference
AJ Allmendinger 6500 6300 -200
Alex Bowman 7800 6600 -1200
Aric Almirola 8200 8200 0
Austin Dillon 7400 7400 0
BJ McLeod 4900 4800 -100
Brad Keselowski 10100 9500 -600
Bubba Wallace 6100 6400 300
Chase Elliott 9000 8900 -100
Chris Buescher 5900 6200 300
Clint Bowyer 9500 9700 200
Corey Lajoie 5000 5300 300
Daniel Suarez 7300 7800 500
David Ragan 5700 6000 300
Denny Hamlin 9200 10200 1000
Erik Jones 8400 8000 -400
Garrett Smithley 4600 4600 0
Gray Gaulding 4700 5100 400
Jamie McMurray 7600 7600 0
Jimmie Johnson 8500 9200 700
Joey Logano 9800 9900 100
Kasey Kahne 6600 6500 -100
Kevin Harvick 12000 12200 200
Kurt Busch 8000 8400 400
Kyle Busch 11600 11900 300
Kyle Larson 10500 10600 100
Landon Cassill 5200 5200 0
Martin Truex Jr 10700 11700 1000
Matt DiBenedetto 5400 5400 0
Michael McDowell 5800 5900 100
Paul Menard 6800 7200 400
Ricky Stenhouse Jr 7000 6700 -300
Ross Chastain 5100 5500 400
Ryan Blaney 8800 8700 -100
Ryan Newman 7700 7000 -700
Timmy Hill 4500 4700 200
Ty Dillon 5600 5700 100
William Byron 6300 6800 500

 

FanDuel

Michigan FanDuel Price Changes
Driver June Race August Race Difference
AJ Allmendinger 8300 7100 -1200
Alex Bowman 7500 8200 700
Aric Almirola 9300 9000 -300
Austin Dillon 8500 7400 -1100
Brad Keselowski 11300 10400 -900
Bubba Wallace 7000 6500 -500
Chase Elliott 10600 10600 0
Chris Buescher 6800 6200 -600
Clint Bowyer 10100 11000 900
Corey LaJoie 5000 5000 0
Daniel Suarez 9000 8400 -600
David Ragan 7300 5500 -1800
Denny Hamlin 11000 10100 -900
Erik Jones 9600 9400 -200
Garrett Smithley 5000 5000 0
Gray Gaulding 5000 5000 0
Jamie McMurray 9200 8000 -1200
Jimmie Johnson 9800 8700 -1100
Joey Logano 10900 10000 -900
Kasey Kahne 7700 7000 -700
Kevin Harvick 12500 12700 200
Kurt Busch 10300 10200 -100
Kyle Busch 11600 12200 600
Kyle Larson 11500 11800 300
Landon Cassill 5000 5000 0
Martin Truex Jr. 12000 12500 500
Matt DiBenedetto 5500 5000 -500
Michael McDowell 6000 6000 0
Paul Menard 7900 7600 -300
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 8700 6800 -1900
Ross Chastain 5000 5000 0
Ryan Blaney 10000 9800 -200
Ryan Newman 8100 7300 -800
Timmy Hill 5000 5000 0
Ty Dillon 6500 5500 -1000
William Byron 7100 7700 600

 

Drivers To Watch This Week

Kyle Larson: Larson has pretty much disappeared from the radar much of the last several races but now it’s back to a track that he has flat-out owned in the last four trips to the Irish Hills. In that span he has three wins, 140 laps led, and 70 fastest laps and a very high 114.2 driver rating. He is still sitting without a win on the year, though he is safely in the playoffs right now, and this might be his best chance to fully lock in that spot before Las Vegas kicks off the playoffs in six weeks. Larson is a full $1,100 cheaper than the cheapest of the big three on DraftKings and $400 less on FanDuel making him quite affordable as a main piece of the lineup on either site.

Clint Bowyer: Bowyer won here in June in a rain-shortened even with some nice pit strategy and the ability to hold off his hard-charging teammate, Kevin Harvick, for the win. That performance however accounts for all of the stats he’s posted over the last four, no other finish has been inside the top-20 and the eight laps led and 16 fastest laps are all from June of this year. In the last 10 races here he does have five top-10s which is nice, but momentum isn’t going his way right now with only three top-20 or better finishes in the last five on the season and none inside the top-10. Bowyer is more expensive on both sites than in June’s race which limits his value some more too.

Chase Elliott: Elliott is coming off his first win in the MENCS at Watkins Glen last week and now gets to race at a track that he (and his dad) have had a lot of success at. In the five races total he’s run here, Elliott hasn’t finished worse than P9 and that was in June. Aside from that he has three runner-up finishes and an eighth place finish to go with 66 laps led and 75 fastest laps in those five races. His average finish of 4.6 is the best since the repave before the 2012 season (though it’s a smaller sample than most) and his 108.9 driver rating puts him third in that stat. He is nearly the same price he was in June being even on FanDuel and $100 less on DraftKings this time around which makes him another intriguing option once more.

Brad Keselowski: Keselowski has been pretty solid here of late with a top-five, two top-10s, four top-20s, 121 laps led, and 52 fastest laps in the last four races. In the last 10 though he has three top-fives, seven top-10s, and 160 laps led with an average finish of 8.4 in that span. The one thing missing from his record here is the win he so badly wants. Not only does he want it for Ford and Roger Penske (who used to own the track) but also because he’d become the first Michigan-born driver to ever win at the track. Keselwoski is $10,400 on DK and $9,500 on FD which makes him between $600-$900 cheaper than in June. If he can show speed, he’ll be a good value at that price.

Erik Jones: Like Keselowski above him, Jones is a Michigan native and a guy that really wants to win at his home track. In three races here he has a top-five and top-10 and three top-15s. Five laps led and 18 fastest laps in that span. That’s not much to go on but he also does have a P4 finish in his lone Xfinity race at the track. HIs momentum is certainly on the upswing with a win, three top-fives, and four top-10s in the last five races this season across multiple style of tracks and with him being cheaper this week than back in June, his value is going up too.