Talladega a week ago is clearly the wildest track on the circuit but this week’s track is still wild, just subtler about it. Nicknamed “The Monster Mile,” Dover International Speedway in Dover, Delaware, is one of the most unique tracks on the schedule. It is a 1-mile track, like Phoenix and New Hampshire, except that it’s banked all the way around, very similarly to Bristol Motor Speedway from a couple of weeks ago. Bristol however is a .5-mile layout so Dover is twice as long with turns that take 16-18 seconds of the 22-23-second lap as opposed to the tight turns of Bristol.

The concrete surface isn’t nearly as smooth as the pavement tracks are and thus the ride heights on the cars are a lot higher this week. The other key difference in a concrete racing surface is the lack of tire grip the car has since the track takes a while to get rubbered up. There should be more than one groove that comes in during the race on Sunday, passing could happen more later in the race than early, though that hasn’t always been the case. There are only five drivers in the field this week with a +6 position differential mark in the last four (one of those Gray Gaulding has only run once here). That being said though, the last three spring race winners have come from P14, P10, and P14 and four of the last five spring races have had a winner from double-digit starting spots (P6 and P22) being the other finishes, showing that if strategy works you can in fact move up through the field. The last time a pole sitter won the race was Jimmie Johnson in September 2010 and he also won the spring race that year in the same fashion.

While it is a violent track for the drivers to make laps around and it’s harsh on the tires with the concrete surface, the tire wear isn’t that bad for a track like this, there are far worse tracks (Atlanta and California) for the drop off over runs than Dover, so long-run speeds will matter once again especially as times don’t fall off much. If you take out the stage cautions from last year’s spring race, there have been 12, 12, 7, 8, and 7 cautions in each of the last five spring races at Dover; Another reason that long runs matter here.

Stacks

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