From a track that is wild crazy and long last week to a track that’s wild and crazy and short this week. Talladega is the longest track on the schedule, but this week’s challenge is one of the shortest at 1-mile in length. Dover International Speedway and the “Monster Mile” is the host for this week’s AAA 400 Drive for Autism.

Dover is a unique track among the rest of the tracks in that it is not only completely concrete, one of only a handful that are, but it’s a 1-mile banked track (the only one on the circuit that is). The turns are banked 24-degrees and the straightaways are tilted at nine degrees. Think of it as a bigger Bristol setup. Nearly the same banking all the way around, just longer straights and overall it’s twice as long per lap as Bristol. No other tracks really compare to these two.

There are only five drivers in the field this week with a position differential of +6 or better, which puts premium on the guys that can move through the field. However that also means that those that can get to the front can lead a fair amount of laps in the race. In nine of the last 10 races here, there have been more than a dozen lead changes, in the 10ththere were 10 lead changes. In four of the last six races the winner has come from 10thor further back with 14thwinning twice, including in this race a year ago. The last time a driver won from the pole was back-to-back Fall races in 2009-2010 and it was Jimmie Johnsonboth times.

A content note here, I will once again only have lineups for DraftKings this week, but will have a roster construction guide for FanDuel in the lineups post that comes out Saturday afternoon. I will include FanDuel specific data in the track breakdown and the playbook (i.e. laps led and FD specific value ratings). Next week I will be putting out full lineups for both sites.

Track Data

Last Four Races at Dover

    Avg. Avg. Avg.   Top Top Top Top Laps
Driver Races Start Run Pos. Finish Wins 5s 10s 15s 20s Led
Martin Truex Jr 4 3.00 3.5 4.3 1 3 4 4 4 387
Jimmie Johnson 4 15.00 7.8 9 1 2 3 3 3 106
Kyle Busch 4 2.30 7.3 12.3 1 2 2 2 3 151
Chase Elliott 4 12.50 8 3.3 0 4 4 4 4 138
Kyle Larson 4 10.80 11.3 8.5 0 3 3 3 3 463
Brad Keselowski 4 9.80 13.8 14.5 0 1 3 3 3 95
Kasey Kahne 4 17.30 13.5 11.8 0 1 1 3 4 0
Ryan Newman 4 12.00 14.3 12.5 0 1 1 2 4 1
Kurt Busch 4 9.80 17.3 19.3 0 1 1 2 3 0
Denny Hamlin 4 7.30 11.8 14.8 0 0 3 3 3 15
Jamie McMurray 4 20.50 16.3 19.3 0 0 2 2 2 2
Daniel Suarez 2 4.00 10.5 7 0 0 2 2 2 0
Kevin Harvick 4 8.50 15.3 19.5 0 0 1 2 3 117
Austin Dillon 4 14.50 17 17.3 0 0 1 2 3 0
Joey Logano 4 17.80 13.5 17 0 0 1 2 2 2
Clint Bowyer 4 25.30 22.3 18.3 0 0 1 2 2 0
Trevor Bayne 4 21.30 21.8 18.8 0 0 1 1 2 0
Ryan Blaney 4 16.00 21.8 25.3 0 0 1 1 1 0
Ricky Stenhouse Jr 4 13.50 22 20.8 0 0 0 2 3 3
Erik Jones 2 8.50 11.5 13.5 0 0 0 2 2 0
Ty Dillon 3 26.70 24 22.7 0 0 0 1 1 27
Paul Menard 4 23.30 23 23 0 0 0 1 1 0
Michael McDowell 3 28.70 26.7 22 0 0 0 0 2 4
AJ Allmendinger 4 23.00 22.3 22 0 0 0 0 2 0
Chris Buescher 4 24.30 25.8 23.5 0 0 0 0 1 0
David Ragan 4 30.00 26.8 24.5 0 0 0 0 1 0
Landon Cassill 4 31.00 28.8 28.3 0 0 0 0 1 0
Aric Almirola 3 18.70 22.3 24 0 0 0 0 1 0
Ross Chastain 2 34.00 32 29 0 0 0 0 1 0
Matt DiBenedetto 4 32.30 31.8 31.8 0 0 0 0 0 0
Reed Sorenson 3 38.70 36.3 37.3 0 0 0 0 0 0
Gray Gaulding 1 32.00 27 24 0 0 0 0 0 0
Corey LaJoie 1 37.00 35 34 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cody Ware 1 38.00 35 35 0 0 0 0 0 0
Alex Bowman 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Darrell Wallace Jr 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Derrike Cope 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
William Byron 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

 

  Fast Top 15 Laps Avg. High Low Pos Laps Led High to Low to
Driver Laps Rate Comp. Rating Rating Rating Diff Pts./Race Avg Rating Avg Rating
Martin Truex Jr 224 99% 1606 127.2 143.2 116.7 -1.3 24.19 16 10.5
Jimmie Johnson 162 89% 1592 106.8 121.9 75 6 6.63 15.1 31.8
Kyle Busch 135 86% 1559 105.9 125.1 76.8 -10 9.44 19.2 29.1
Chase Elliott 75 94% 1606 107.6 129.8 96.7 9.2 8.63 22.2 10.9
Kyle Larson 167 67% 1600 107.1 141.9 58.7 2.3 28.94 34.8 48.4
Brad Keselowski 68 74% 1266 89.8 111.6 45.4 -4.7 5.94 21.8 44.4
Kasey Kahne 18 70% 1602 82.9 86.1 79.2 5.5 0.00 3.2 3.7
Ryan Newman 21 57% 1600 80.4 88.1 75.3 -0.5 0.00 7.7 5.1
Kurt Busch 24 61% 1289 77.9 108.1 49.7 -9.5 0.00 30.2 28.2
Denny Hamlin 37 76% 1579 91.5 101.3 80 -7.5 0.94 9.8 11.5
Jamie McMurray 9 57% 1393 74.4 89.2 56 1.2 0.13 14.8 18.4
Daniel Suarez 5 93% 806 92.7 94.1 91.3 -3 0.00 1.4 1.4
Kevin Harvick 138 64% 1558 93.9 114.9 54.1 -11 7.31 21 39.8
Austin Dillon 30 49% 1549 75 93.8 63.8 -2.8 0.00 18.8 11.2
Joey Logano 31 65% 1592 83.3 107 68.6 0.8 0.13 23.7 14.7
Clint Bowyer 15 29% 1585 68.7 95.4 49.8 7 0.00 26.7 18.9
Trevor Bayne 1 11% 1593 61.3 67.2 54.5 2.5 0.00 5.9 6.8
Ryan Blaney 17 36% 1451 72.5 84.8 61.7 -9.3 0.00 12.3 10.8
Ricky Stenhouse Jr 9 19% 1260 62.6 72.3 37.6 -7.3 0.19 9.7 25
Erik Jones 14 82% 805 90.4 96 84.8 -5 0.00 5.6 5.6
Ty Dillon 11 12% 1193 58.6 76.4 42.8 4 2.25 17.8 15.8
Paul Menard 4 5% 1534 58 68.3 49.7 0.3 0.00 10.3 8.3
Michael McDowell 0 2% 1196 50 56.2 46.7 6.7 0.33 6.2 3.3
AJ Allmendinger 7 9% 1586 59.6 62.5 54.1 1 0.00 2.9 5.5
Chris Buescher 1 3% 1586 52.3 60.7 44.2 0.8 0.00 8.4 8.1
David Ragan 1 3% 1579 47.4 58.5 40.2 5.5 0.00 11.1 7.2
Landon Cassill 0 1% 1439 44.1 47.8 41.3 2.7 0.00 3.7 2.8
Aric Almirola 22 8% 1148 63.1 69.6 57.9 -5.3 0.00 6.5 5.2
Ross Chastain 5 0% 751 40.6 45.6 35.6 5 0.00 5 5
Matt DiBenedetto 0 0% 1299 39.3 41.9 36 0.5 0.00 2.6 3.3
Reed Sorenson 0 0% 751 28.3 30.5 26.8 1.4 6.00 2.2 1.5
Gray Gaulding 0 1% 402 40.7 40.7 40.7 8 0.00 0 0
Corey LaJoie 0 0% 389 32.7 32.7 32.7 3 0.00 0 0
Cody Ware 0 0% 283 27.8 27.8 27.8 3 0.00 0 0
Alex Bowman 0 0% 0 0 0 0 0   0 0
Darrell Wallace Jr 0 0% 0 0 0 0 0   0 0
Derrike Cope 0 0% 0 0 0 0 0   0 0
William Byron 0 0% 0 0 0 0 0   0 0

*Laps Comp. is out of 1,606 run in the last four races

Top-15 Drivers Over Last 10 Races at Dover

    Avg. Avg. Avg.   Top Top Top Top Laps
Driver Races Start Run Pos. Finish Wins 5s 10s 15s 20s Led
Jimmie Johnson 10 12.3 8.7 10 4 6 7 7 8 787
Kyle Busch 10 5.3 8.1 14.8 1 5 6 6 7 438
Martin Truex Jr 10 7.7 8.8 10 1 3 7 9 9 520
Kevin Harvick 10 8.3 10.7 12.5 1 2 5 7 9 811
Brad Keselowski 10 8.5 12.5 13.2 0 4 6 7 8 204
Kyle Larson 8 9.6 10.5 7.9 0 4 6 7 7 463
Chase Elliott 4 12.5 8 3.3 0 4 4 4 4 138
Joey Logano 10 11.9 11.3 11.1 0 2 6 8 8 2
Kasey Kahne 10 17.1 13 13.2 0 2 3 6 9 2
Aric Almirola 9 20.1 20.6 18 0 2 2 3 5 0
Clint Bowyer 10 19.4 15.4 12.5 0 1 6 8 8 8
Jamie McMurray 10 14.5 14.7 16.7 0 1 4 6 6 3
Denny Hamlin 10 6.1 10.9 16.9 0 1 4 5 7 174
Ryan Newman 10 11.3 15.5 17 0 1 3 4 8 7
Kurt Busch 10 12.7 14.9 19.4 0 1 1 3 7 8

 

  Fast Top 15 Laps Avg. High Low Pos. Laps Led Rating
Driver Laps Rate Comp. Rating Rating Rating Diff. Pts/Race Range
Jimmie Johnson 491 84% 3960 113.9 148.3 72.8 96.7 19.68 75.5
Kyle Busch 299 87% 3658 108.7 130.8 76.8 58.7 10.95 54
Martin Truex Jr 325 77% 3889 108.3 143.2 82.7 82.7 13.00 60.5
Kevin Harvick 443 77% 3961 107.3 149.7 54.1 72.8 20.28 95.6
Brad Keselowski 178 72% 3625 93.9 130 45.4 54.1 5.10 84.6
Kyle Larson 202 77% 3205 102.6 141.9 58.7 76.8 14.47 83.2
Chase Elliott 75 94% 1606 107.6 129.8 96.7 45.4 8.63 33.1
Joey Logano 60 79% 3997 92.7 108.3 68.6 68.6 0.05 39.7
Kasey Kahne 137 71% 4000 87 97.9 79.2 91.3 0.05 18.7
Aric Almirola 46 25% 3546 70.7 91.1 56.3 79.2 0.00 34.8
Clint Bowyer 86 59% 3990 85.1 100.7 49.8 49.8 0.00 50.9
Jamie McMurray 32 63% 3777 81 99.5 56 56 0.08 43.5
Denny Hamlin 95 75% 3958 91.8 103 75 75 4.35 28
Ryan Newman 57 47% 3886 79.3 106.7 64.4 84.8 0.18 42.3
Kurt Busch 113 63% 3680 82.2 108.1 49.7 56.3 0.20 58.4

*Laps Comp. is out of 4,011 laps run in the last 10 races at Dover

Top-15 Drivers on Similar Tracks (since 2013)

    Avg. Avg. Avg.   Top Top Top Top Laps
Driver Races Start Run Pos. Finish Wins 5s 10s 15s 20s Led
Jimmie Johnson 20 13.1 11.1 10.5 5 11 13 14 16 912
Kyle Busch 19 7.5 10.7 18.2 3 7 9 10 11 1240
Joey Logano 20 9.1 12.6 11.3 2 6 13 16 17 381
Kevin Harvick 20 12.3 9.9 13.8 2 5 11 14 16 1260
Martin Truex Jr 20 11.4 12.6 17.2 1 3 8 11 12 638
Kyle Larson 17 12.9 11.4 12.3 0 5 11 13 13 1025
Brad Keselowski 20 8.1 14.9 17.8 0 5 8 10 12 361
Chase Elliott 9 10.8 11.7 9.6 0 5 6 7 8 154
Denny Hamlin 20 6.8 12.1 16.1 0 4 9 11 14 316
Ricky Stenhouse Jr 20 18.7 19.2 15.7 0 4 7 11 16 3
Kurt Busch 20 12.5 15.4 19.4 0 4 4 8 12 229
Clint Bowyer 20 19.6 16.2 12.8 0 3 10 15 17 63
Kasey Kahne 20 14.6 14.3 16.9 0 3 5 9 15 58
Aric Almirola 19 22.2 20.7 19.2 0 3 4 8 11 0
Ryan Newman 20 13.3 14.6 15.1 0 2 8 11 16 17

 

  Fast Top 15 Laps Avg. High Low Pos Laps Led Rating
Driver Laps Rate Comp. Rating Rating Rating Diff. Pts./Race Range
Jimmie Johnson 702 75% 8911 103.7 148.3 50.2 84.8 11.40 98.1
Kyle Busch 635 76% 7594 104.3 133.2 66.6 37.6 16.32 66.6
Joey Logano 244 73% 8949 96.3 137.8 41.6 56.3 4.76 96.2
Kevin Harvick 893 82% 8828 106.9 149.7 54.1 49.7 15.75 95.6
Martin Truex Jr 514 63% 8755 95.3 143.2 36.4 37.1 7.98 106.8
Kyle Larson 548 74% 7532 101.5 141.9 58.7 50.1 15.07 83.2
Brad Keselowski 319 64% 8474 86.2 130 38.6 54.1 4.51 91.4
Chase Elliott 149 77% 4078 94.8 129.8 37.3 76.8 4.28 92.5
Denny Hamlin 246 73% 8612 92.3 120.2 48.5 49.8 0.00 71.7
Ricky Stenhouse Jr 154 37% 8368 74.1 98.9 37.6 61.7 0.04 61.3
Kurt Busch 266 60% 8500 84.3 113.1 49.7 49.7 2.86 63.4
Clint Bowyer 155 53% 8971 80.7 108.5 35.8 68.6 0.79 72.7
Kasey Kahne 279 64% 8691 83.5 108.2 52.3 64.4 0.73 55.9
Aric Almirola 87 29% 8045 69 101.9 43.1 82.7 0.00 58.8
Ryan Newman 101 58% 8884 81.5 106.7 64.4 44.2 0.21 42.3

*Laps Comp. is out of 9,025 laps run at the last 10 Dover races and the last 10 Bristol races combined.

Momentum (last five races of 2018)

This will update each week with the most recent race making the fifth race. Therefore it will be a rolling total of just how hot a driver has been over that stretch.

    Avg. Avg. Avg.   Top Top Top Top Pos Avg.
Driver Races Start Run Pos. Finish Wins 5s 10s 15s 20s Diff. Rating
Kyle Busch 5 12.4 5.8 3.6 3 4 4 5 5 8.8 121.3
Joey Logano 5 6.4 6.2 5.2 1 2 5 5 5 1.2 111.8
Clint Bowyer 5 10 11 11.6 1 1 4 4 4 -1.6 96.7
Kevin Harvick 5 12 8.8 4.6 0 4 5 5 5 7.4 108
Chase Elliott 5 12.8 15.6 10.8 0 2 3 4 4 2 79.8
Ryan Blaney 5 10 8.8 16.6 0 2 2 2 3 -6.6 93.6
Ricky Stenhouse Jr 5 13.2 18.2 18.8 0 2 2 2 2 -5.6 71
Alex Bowman 5 12.4 18 13.2 0 1 3 3 4 -0.8 77.8
Kurt Busch 5 4.4 10 10.6 0 1 2 4 4 -6.2 100.4
Jimmie Johnson 5 15.4 14.8 14.2 0 1 2 4 4 1.2 88.1
Kyle Larson 5 10 16.6 20.2 0 1 2 2 3 -10.2 85.8
Denny Hamlin 5 8.8 11.8 15.4 0 1 1 4 4 -6.6 96.7
Martin Truex Jr 5 7.4 19.2 22.2 0 1 1 2 2 -14.8 75.8
Erik Jones 5 12 18.4 19.8 0 1 1 2 3 -7.8 71.6
Jamie McMurray 5 23.2 18.8 19 0 1 1 1 3 4.2 68.7

 

Points Changes at Dover

The 2017 race points are the points scored in this specific race a year ago. The season DK points average is what the driver is averaging for the races thus far in 2018. It's a good way to see how much over or right on the average that driver did at this track a year prior. Clearly, each race is different, but it's a way to gauge who fits what lineup format better. The drivers closer to their average might be better for cash whereas those to the more extreme ends of the table could fit GPPs better with a boom-or-bust type showing. The Avg. +/- number means that the whole field in general has either done better or worse than their season averages by that number.

  17 Race Season DK Pts +/-
Driver Total Avg DK Pts. Season AVG
Kyle Larson 144.25 37.4 106.9
Martin Truex Jr 91.50 39.29 52.2
Jimmie Johnson 79.25 29.71 49.5
Chase Elliott 54.00 34.02 20.0
Jamie McMurray 50.50 24.52 26.0
Kevin Harvick 50.50 63.9 -13.4
Ryan Newman 49.75 31.42 18.3
Ty Dillon 46.25 24.36 21.9
Denny Hamlin 41.00 43.33 -2.3
Ross Chastain 40.00 20.44 19.6
Kyle Busch 39.75 69.46 -29.7
Daniel Suarez 35.50 26.36 9.1
Michael McDowell 35.00 20.58 14.4
Kasey Kahne 34.00 23.5 10.5
AJ Allmendinger 32.00 27.02 5.0
Austin Dillon 29.50 29.83 -0.3
Gray Gaulding 28.00 16.89 11.1
Erik Jones 27.00 26.65 0.4
Chris Buescher 27.00 28.18 -1.2
Joey Logano 20.00 47.29 -27.3
Trevor Bayne 19.50 18.77 0.7
David Ragan 17.00 24.68 -7.7
Cody Ware 12.00 0 12.0
Matt DiBenedetto 11.00 25.32 -14.3
Clint Bowyer 5.50 48.64 -43.1
Paul Menard 1.00 23.16 -22.2
Ryan Blaney 0.00 46.73 -46.7
Landon Cassill -1.00 22.75 -23.8
Kurt Busch -18.50 36.6 -55.1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr -19.75 25.44 -45.2
Brad Keselowski -23.50 36.88 -60.4
    AVG +/- 24.8

 

Top-10 and Bottom-10 Value Drivers

DraftKings

Rank Driver Value Rank Driver Value
1 Kyle Busch 5.99 37 Cody Ware 0.00
2 Kevin Harvick 5.81 36 Reed Sorenson 2.02
3 Clint Bowyer 5.53 35 Corey Lajoie 2.90
4 Ryan Blaney 5.25 34 Trevor Bayne 3.13
5 Chris Buescher 5.03 33 Erik Jones 3.25
6 Joey Logano 4.98 32 Jimmie Johnson 3.30
7 Matt DiBenedetto 4.87 31 Jamie McMurray 3.31
8 Aric Almirola 4.82 30 Ricky Stenhouse Jr 3.35
9 David Ragan 4.66 29 Paul Menard 3.41
10 Alex Bowman 4.50 28 Brad Keselowski 3.55

FanDuel

Rank Driver Value Rank Driver Value
1 Landon Cassill 10.06 37 Jimmie Johnson 4.01
2 Matt DiBenedetto 9.20 36 Kyle Larson 4.48
3 Cole Custer 8.98 35 Martin Truex Jr. 4.61
4 Ross Chastain 8.56 34 Brad Keselowski 4.64
5 David Ragan 8.45 33 Chase Elliott 4.68
6 Gray Gaulding 7.99 32 Corey LaJoie 4.80
7 Ty Dillon 7.55 31 Erik Jones 5.08
8 AJ Allmendinger 7.30 30 Reed Sorenson 5.16
9 Trevor Bayne 7.21 29 Ryan Blaney 5.36
10 Chris Buescher 7.13 28 Kurt Busch 5.39

Drivers To Watch This Week:

Martin Truex Jr.: Truex has been stellar at Dover since the start of 2016 with a win, three top-fives, four top-10s and 387 laps led, in addition to 224 fastest laps. His 99% top-15 rate is almost unheard of and he has completed every one of the 1,606 laps in that span. His 4.3 average finish is second-best in the field after starting 3.0 in the last four. His seven top-10s in the last 10 races are tied for best in the field and add to the cash value Truex has this week at $10,800 on DK and $11,800 on FD as the fourth and fifth-most expensive driver respectively.

Jimmie Johnson: Johnson has been coming around recently with four top-15s in the last five races this season including a top-five and two top-10s. For Dover specifically, he has a win, two top-fives, and three top-10s in the last four races with 106 laps led. The 48-car has been on track for all but 14 laps in the last four races but he really shines in the 10-race picture. Four wins, six top-fives, seven top-10s and 787 laps led in that span state his bona fides here. There is a big difference in price on the two sites with Johnson being $9,000 on DK and $12,300 on FD. The mid-tier range works for a cash game play as does the elite level on FD but you will need more budget plays to fit him and Truex on FD.

Chase Elliott: Chase has the best position differential in the field this week with a +9.2 mark in the last four races. Aside from that he also has the best average finish at 3.3 in that span with four top-fives and 138 laps. Everyone should remember how close he came to winning here last fall before he couldn’t pass Ryan Newmanand Kyle Buschcaught him with a few laps to go. He like JJ is also finding his stride with three top-10s in the last five races this season. His salaries ($9,300 DK, $11,500 on FD) make him workable across the board.

Kyle Larson: The story for Larson here is like many tracks on the schedule, he leads a lot of laps but doesn’t win. He has 463 laps out front here (best in the field) and 167 fastest laps (second in the field) and has three top-fives in the last four races here. Larson has also run all but six laps since 2016. Over last 10 (he’s run in eight) he’s posted four top-fives, six top-10s and the same 463 laps led and his 7.9 average finish is the best in that time frame. The 42-car is priced as an elite driver this week at $10,200 on DraftKings and $12,000 even on FanDuel.

Daniel Suarez: It’s the first time making this section for Suarez this season but it’s not by chance. He’s scored two top-10 finishes here in the last two races (his only MENCS experience at the track) and run in the top-15 93%. Along with completing all 806 laps in those trips he has a very good 92.7 average driver rating. On both sites, he is squarely in the mid-tier salary range at $7,100 on DK and $8,300 on FD and will work for either format, though more GPP leaning than cash.