2018 NASCAR DFS Payline Analysis: Folds of Honor 500

Sunday’s race, after waiting out a nearly three-hour weather delay, was more of a coronation than a race. Kevin Harvick finally nailed down his second win at the track, 17 years after his first win (first cup win overall too). He again led the most laps and wound up winning by more than 3.5 seconds when all was said and done. This week’s lineups were more productive than last week’s but let’s find out exactly how they did.

$17.5K Brake Pad (Single Entry)

Entry Fee - $4

Total Prizes - $17,500  First Place - $1,000

Total Entrants – 5,202  Places Paid – 1,290

Top Score – 382.50  Money Line – 318.25  Fantasy Alarm Lineup – 339.75 GPP1

This was the biggest field tournament I played in this week but even with that being the case, only two drivers were owned at better than 50%. Martin Truex Jr. and Kevin Harvick were not surprisingly the two choices. And in fact, you couldn’t finish in the money unless you had one or both in your lineup. Every lineup that cashed had Harvick and his 132.25 points on it, which figures since he accounted for more than a third of the total points necessary all by himself. The best play for salary and points and low ownership went to Clint Bowyer, who at $8,100 provided 55.5 points, putting him seventh in the field, but was only owned on 10.17% of lineups. My three favorite cheap plays of the week, Ty Dillon, David Ragan, and Cole Whitt each produced between 28 and 20 points but the difference came in ownership. Just under 18% of rosters had Dillon and about the same had Ragan (17.65 and 17.47 respectively) but only 3.77% rostered Whitt for Atlanta. Ryan Blaney was a popular choice as well at 43.7% ownership and 47.5 points which both helped to separate the top scoring lineups from the crowd.

NAS $5 Contest (2 entry max)

Entry Fee - $5

Total Prizes - $300  First Place - $60

Total Entrants – 71  Places Paid– 15

Top Score – 381  Money Line – 332  Fantasy Alarm Lineups – 339.75 GPP1, 230.25 GPP2

This is another instance in which having either Martin Truex Jr. or Kevin Harvick paid dividends. In fact the top-27 lineups all had Harvick in them. The percentages held pretty close to the first tournament in that Truex and Harvick were both the only over 50% owned with Truex again owned in the low 60s. Ryan Blaney, Kyle Busch and Jimmie Johnson all held about even at 42.25% for both Blaney and Busch and 35.2% for Johnson. Surprisingly however, Clint Bowyer became an even better value in this one with just 7.04% of rosters having the 55.5-point scorer in their lineup. Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, Kurt Busch, and Brad Keselowski all provided chances at 50+ point scorers for less than 18% ownership and Keselowski was on less than 12% of six-driver entries. Ty Dillon jumped up about 11 percentage points in this one and was played on 28% of rosters.

NAS $5 Double Up (Single Entry)

Entry Fee - $5

Total Prizes - $100  1^st-10^th - $10

Total Entrants – 23  Places Paid – 10

Top Score – 359  Money Line – 318  Fantasy Alarm Lineups – 277.5 Cash, 315.25 Cash w/pivot

I wound up playing the cash with the pivot in this tournament, though I did play the original cash in other double ups, and neither one placed. Being that it was a small-field cash game the percentages for this are much higher for key guys. Martin Truex Jr. and Kevin Harvick, the top two elsewhere were owned in 82.61 and 73.91 percent of lineups respectively but this time Ryan Blaney broke the 60% barrier as well at 60.87%. The typical cheap plays relied on to save money were also played in a staggering amount of rosters with David Ragan being the fourth-highest owned driver at 47.83% and Ty Dillon being the sixth-highest at 39.13%. Even Cole Whitt jumped to 13 percent owned in this one. The other interesting thing of note is that eight drivers were not played on any lineup, most notably Clint Bowyer and Aric Almirola with their 55.5 and 30 points each respectively. Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski each were on 4.35% of lineups and both produced better than 54+ points making them great values for differentiating rosters in the small field.

Optimal Lineup for the Folds of Honor 500

The best six-driver lineup for the Folds of Honor 500 was as follows:

It would’ve produced a score of 392.75 and been $200 under budget. As is generally the case with 1.5-mile setups, the top drivers are the ones that produce the points, unlike last week were the cheap drivers had big days due to crashes boosting their finishing spots. The lineup has five 50+ point scorers in it, out of the eight total in the field, but noticeably absent is Martin Truex Jr. as his value as the most-expensive would have cost another 50+ point driver making him prohibitive to the optimal group. The closest anyone got to this point total in any of my contests was 389.5.