Happy Stock Watch day FANation! We are nearing fantasy baseball playoffs in head-to-head leagues and roto leagues are in the stretch run. Every more can be critical towards reaching that end goal of winning a championship. Picking up a hot player or dropping someone that is cold can be a game-changing move at this stage of the game. Without further ado, let’s dive in!

Stock up

Miguel Sanó, 3B MIN – Sano hits the ball and he does it often. He is currently in the 100th percentile for hard contact rate with his 53.7-percent rate and he is in the 99th percentile of exit velocity with his 94.1 mph mark. He is also in the 99th percentile of barrel percentage with his 21.1-percent mark. Those impressive numbers have led to 26 home runs in just 81 games played (292 at-bats). Sure, it comes with a .247 batting average, but that’s one of the best home run per game rates in the entire league. He is currently swinging a hot bat too, hitting .308 with five home runs and 10 RBI over his last 10 games. He will continue to be a great source of home runs and RBI for the remainder of the season and will probably be a top-100 pick in fantasy drafts next season.

Harrison Bader, OF STL – Bader was really struggling at the plate and lost his starting gig. St. Louis decided the best course of action was to send him down to Triple-A so that he could find his swing. That move seemed to do the trick. He hit .317 with seven home runs, three steals, 23 runs scored, and 15 RBI across that mini 16-game Triple-A stint before being recalled back to the bigs. He has started every game since rejoining St. Louis and his hot stint at Triple-A has carried over. In seven games since joining the Cardinals, he is slashing .286/.464/.571 with a home run, a triple, a double, seven walks, five RBI, seven runs scored, and a stolen base. Bader has a nice blend of pop/speed and will remain a fantasy asset as long as he remains in the everyday lineup.  He is currently batting eighth, but with the leadoff spot currently being manned by Dexter Fowler and his .249/.349/.426 slash it seems possible that Bader could his work his way to the top of the lineup by season’s end.

Steven Matz, SP NYM – Matz is currently dealing with a blister, but he is still expected to make his next start. That’s good news for fantasy owners, as Matz has found a very nice groove recently. He has given up two or fewer earned runs in six of his past seven starts and he has a 2.47 ERA in that span, with three wins and six quality starts. He has really cut down on his walks this season with a 2.66 BB/9 after posting a 3.39 BB/9 last season. He has been an absolute force when pitching at home this year, pitching to a 2.01 ERA with more than a strikeout per inning and a 6-1 record across 13 home outings. Unfortunately for fantasy owners though, his next start will be on the road in Philly. In his two previous outings in Philly this year, he has given up six runs without recording an out and he has given up seven runs across 4.1 innings pitched; those two outings are his worst two of the year. He has a 4.06 ERA this year, but if we take those two outings out, his ERA drops to 3.33. That’s a huge difference this late in the season and it shows us that he has been really good for the majority of his starts this year.

Stock down

Matt Boyd, SP DET – Through the first two months of the season Boyd appeared well on his way to a breakout campaign; he had a 2.85 ERA with 88 strikeouts across 72.2 innings pitched (12 starts). Then the calendar flipped to June. Since the start of June, Boyd has a 5.84 ERA across 15 starts (86.4 innings), bringing his ERA for the year up to the 4.47. His 11.8 K/9 is still fantastic, but that ERA isn’t doing anyone any favors, especially in fantasy leagues that use wins as a stat, since he has a 6-10 record. With that being said, when looking into his profile, it is hard to really tell what the issue is. His strikeout rate, ground ball rate, line drive rate, walk rate, and LOB rate are all improved from last year, yet his current ERA is worse. Everything in his profile looks like an improved pitcher; the only major difference from last season is his .298 BABIP (which is not an unlucky number) which is considerably higher than his .258 BABIP from last season. Despite how poorly he has pitched recently, better days should be ahead (based on the underlying numbers) and his fantasy owners should hang tight.

Caleb Smith, SP MIA – I will start by saying this, I am a big fan of Smith and I love pitchers who post strikeout rates like his; however, it appears that he is hitting a wall. Smith only pitched 77.1 innings last season and he is already up to 127.0 (117.2 at the MLB level) innings this year. That’s a pretty big increase and it can take a toll on a body that is not used to it. Through his first 16 starts (90.0 innings) he had a 3.30 ERA, an 11.0 K/9, and a .193 BAA. In his last five starts (27.2 innings) he has a 5.53 ERA, a 9.11 K/9, and a .235 BAA. He is still a fine option and part of his recent struggles are likely due to tough matchups as well (Atlanta rocked him twice in that five-game span), so fantasy owners should remain patient and not overreact. His next matchup is a good one against the Reds and he should be able to fire a solid outing against them. It is worth noting that the Marlins are going to be careful with him and he is a candidate to get shut down at some point. It will be interesting to see where he goes in drafts next season.

Joc Pederson, OF LAD – Pederson started the year very strong, hitting .274 with 17 home runs and 31 RBI through the month of May (51 games, 157 at-bats). It was starting to look like he was finally turning the corner and becoming a player with the ability to be more than a low batting power bat, but he has come crashing back down to Earth since then. Since the start of June, a span of 70 games, he is hitting .199 with nine home runs and 26 RBI. Yikes. That simply isn’t getting it done and he is killing fantasy owners. His .236 BABIP for the year certainly doesn’t help, but we can’t blame it all on bad luck. He still strikes out too much (22.1-percent rate) and he hits way too many infield fly balls (15.5-percent). Another huge issue is his complete inability to hit lefties, as he is slashing an unsightly .175/.195/.200 with zero home runs against left-handed pitching this year across 40 at-bats. He isn’t worth owning in any fantasy format.

Stocks to watch

Taylor Guerrieri / Rafael Montero, RP/RP TEX – A pair of under the radar former high prospect starting pitchers have been very effective lately as members of the Rangers' bullpen. Guerrieri was a top-100 prospect pre-2012 and pre-2013 as a member of the Rays farm system. He was a first-round pick out of high school in 2011. He had injury issues as well as drug issues and it took him a while to reach the MLB (2018). Now a member of the Rangers, he has a 3.32 ERA with 22 strikeouts through his first 19.0 innings pitched. He has only given up 14 hits. It gets even better when we take out his first outing, as he has a 1.45 ERA over his last 18.2 innings pitched (11 outings). He has a good strikeout rate, a fantastic 0.1-degree launch angle against, a .184 xBAA, and a fantastic 58.7-percent ground-ball rate. Moving over to Montero, he was a top-100 prospect pre-2014 as a member of the Mets. He has a 1.08 ERA and 0.96 WHIP with 19 strikeouts across 16.2 innings pitched. He has a nice strikeout rate, is giving up hard contact at a very low rate, and has a .205 xBAA. Neither of the guys may hold a ton of value for the remainder of the 2019 season (outside of holds leagues), but they are providing nice ratios and need to be on your radar going forward.

Kolby Allard, SP TEX – Allard tossed a gem in his last outing, firing 6.1 shutout innings with eight strikeouts in a win over the White Sox. Seeing that line and knowing he is a former top-100 prospect (pre-2016, 2017, and 2018), it was enough for me to take a deeper look into him. Right off the bat, we see 23 strikeouts across 21.1 innings pitched, good for a 9.7 K/9, which is a very solid mark for a starting pitcher. The 4.64 ERA isn’t overly great, but he does have a 2.93 FIP, which is a good mark, albeit he’s still working with a small sample. He has a .236 xBAA, also a solid mark for an SP. We would like to see a bit more soft-contact induced, as his current mark of a 12.9-percent rate, is pretty low, but his 28.6-percent infield fly ball rate is very strong. Again, all of these numbers are on a very small sample, but given that he was once a highly ranked prospect, he is very much worth keeping an eye on.