Miami Heat (-4.5) vs Milwaukee Bucks
Game Total: 219.5
Miami had their shot to close out the Bucks with a four game sweep, especially after seeing Giannis exit with an ankle injury after only 11 minutes but the heroics of Khris Middleton kept the Bucks in the game until the end, which included overtime where the managed to steal Game 4. With Giannis questionable to play Game 5 the fate of the Bucks will likely land on the shooting of Middleton once again while Jimmy Butler , Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic look to get the suprising Miami Heat into the Eastern Conference Finals.
Heat Players to Target
Jimmy Butler - Butler may have managed just 17 points in the Heat's Game 4 loss to the Bucks but I expect him to come out firing in Game 5 like we saw from him in Game 1 and Game 3 where he took over the game.
Bam Adebayo - Bam must be feeling slighted after not winning the Most Improved Player Award as he finds himself with double-doubles in three of the four games in this series and was just a rebound shy in Game 2 to make it a double-double in all four games. Bam's ability to also distrubute the ball while playing a litttle defense has gone a long way this series and has given him a high fantasy ceiling.
Goran Dragic - Talk about consistency. You can pretty much lock Dragic in for 33+ fantasy points in this series as he fills up the stat sheet across the board with points, rebounds, assists and steals. His fantasy ceiling can be north of 40 FP if the shot drops like we saw in Games 1 and 2 of this series.
Jae Crowder - Crowder has come through for the Heat in each of the last three games, averaging 17 points with five rebounds and four assists during this stretch. The scoring will come and go with Crowder but the secondary stats should remain consistent.
Bucks Players to Target
Khris Middleton - The price is on the rise but hey, MIddleton is legit and we have been saying this all season long. He carried the team to a Game 4 win and has finished with at least 40 FP in each game this series while nearly dropping 60 in Game 4.
Eric Bledsoe - If Giannis is not 100%, and it's clear he isn't, then Bledsoe is goign to take on a larger role with his usage going up. He notched a double-double in Game 4, scoring 14 points with 10 boards and six assists. The Bucks will need him if they are going to stay alive in this series.
Brook Lopez - Another consistent player this series, Lopez has put up at least 29 FP in each game this series with a high of 35. This should be pretty consistent in Game 5 as the Heat haven't seemed too concerned when it comes to shutting down Lopez on the offensive side of the floor.
Giannis Antetokounmpo - I don't really know how you can trust him to be honest. The price is high and he is a huge risk to be re-injured or be limited. That said, Giannis was 8-for-10 from the floor before leaving with the injury so it was clear the Heat had no answer for him. He would make 10% of my lineups tonight if I was building.-- Officially ruled out
Marvin Williams - Dart throw play here but if Giannis is limited then Williams will benefit. He is seeing about 20 minutes off the bench anyhow and his production hasn't been awful. Again, pure salary saving dart throw on a small slate. With Giannis out I upgrade Williams here as well as Ersan Ilyasova
George Hill - Getting a lot of run in this series and while the production has been so-so, it is a small slate and knowing he plays 25 minutes is something worth running with if you need the salary savings.
Los Angeles Lakers (-4.5) vs Houston Rockets
Game Total: 222
Series is tied at one game a piece after the Rockets took Game 1 and the Lakers fired back in Game 2. This series is full of star power but the Lakers are the better team in my opnion with the best players as I would take LeBron and AD over Harden and Westbrook. The Rockets will need Harden to shoot the lights out again if they look to avoid falling in Game 3.
Lakers Players to Target
LeBron James - LBJ was an assist shy of a triple-double in Game 2. These type of take-over games are what we should expect from James in this series as the Rockets really don't have someone that can check him. Sure, they can try PJ Tucker or Robert Covington but ultimately LeBron is going to get his.
Anthony Davis - The Lakers goal should be to get the ball to Davis as much as he possibly can in this matchup. The Rockets play small ball with a center no bigger than 6'8 against the 7-foot Davis. AD dropped 34 and 10 in the Lakers Game 2 win and I expect a similar game plan in Game 3.
Rajon Rondo - Playoff Rondo has entered the series. In Game 2 he put up 10 points with nine assists, three rebounds and five steals. This followed his Game 1 return which he played 24 minutes and finished with 23 FP. As he gets more in the groove of things it would not shock me to see a near triple-double from Rondo in this series.
Rockets Players to Target
James Harden - Not quite the fantasy production we are looking to get from Harden given the price tag. Harden has put up less than 50 FP on FanDuel in five straight games. That's just not cutting it for a guy priced at nearly $11,000. That said, this is a small slate and few have 70 FP upside which he flashed last series against the Thunder. Harden is another 10-percenter for me when making lineups.
Russell Westbrook - Like Harden, RWB isn't exactly paying off the price tag. It's not to say he can't give us 50-60 FP but we just have not seen that yet. He went for 42 FP in Game 1 but just 30 FP in Game 2. I don't love it but if Houston is to win Game 3 it's likely because RWB is involved.
Eric Gordon - Ah, finally a play here that makes some sense from a salary standpoint. In the first two games of this series Gordon has dropped 23 and 24 points for 31 and 28 FP. The scoring from Gordon is going to remain consistent has he has dropped at least 20 points in five of the last six games.
Robert Covington - The scoring is inconsistent here but I like that Covington gives us rebounds and defensive stats. If the three-point shot drops then the upside can be what we saw in Game 7 against the Thunder when he dropped 52 FP. But we can also live with his Game 1 effort here against the Lakers when he scored just six points while grabbing seven rebounds, two assists, one block and four steals.