Denver Nuggets vs Utah Jazz (-2)
Game Total: 219
This has been a wild series, but Utah will be looking to close it out tonight for a 4-1 series win. These two teams have hit the over in three of the four games that have played meaning points are more than likely going to be scored. Three of these games have been decided by 10 or more points, suggesting that the winning team generally has control of this game which can occasionally lead to players seeing their minutes decreased however with this being the playoffs and a clinching game I expect the primary rotation players to see their usual minutes.
Denver Players to Target
Jamal Murray , PG DEN – Murray has popped in two of the games in this series, for 55 and 77 fantasy points. The other two games however, just 21 and 32 FP. Boom or bust has always been the name of the game with Murray. On a two-game slate, I am expecting solid ownership here given his ability to win you the slate.
Monte Morris , PG DEN – Needing some value on such a smaller slate, Morris has eclipsed 20 FP in three of the four games in this series and seems keyed in on playing between 24-30 minutes off the bench. He doesn’t have a ton of pop-off upside, but he is on the floor and can give you something close to 5x on his price tag.
Jerami Grant , PF DEN – The frontcourt has been a crapshoot for the Nuggets with Michael Porter , Paul Millsap and Grant here all having their moments to shine. The most consistent has been Grant so let’s roll in this direction tonight. Grant hasn’t played less than 25 minutes in any game this series and has at least been the most consistent when it comes to production even though his numbers aren’t popping much either. All three should be considered in GPP builds because any of them could be the guy tonight.
Nikola Jokic , C DEN – My feelings for Jokic aside, on a two-game slate, he has to be considered for tonight. In Game 4 he scored 29 points with seven rebounds and six assists. He has scored over 28 points in three of the four games in this series while notching a double-double in the first two games. He has this upside and that can take you to the top of GPP standings.
Jazz Players to Target
Mike Conley , PG UTA – Conley has not missed a beat since returning from his bubble absence to re-join the Jazz for this series. In the two games he has averaged 26.5 points with four assists per game. Really is a lock play today.
Donovan Mitchell , SG UTA – No shock to see Mitchell take over the game the other night, dropping a 50 burger for the second time in this series. I’ll say it again, this is only a two-game slate. You need HIGH upside players in your lineup and Mitchell is one of the few on this slate that truly has this type of elite ceiling. You also don’t have to pay the premium price tag to get it unlike the players also on this slate who find themselves priced up.
Jordan Clarkson , SG UTA – Clarkson is a pure scorer, Utah needs him to come off the bench and be instant offense and instant offense is what he has provided, giving us 24 points the other night over 27 minutes. He is a safe play in this match up and if you are looking to spend down a little I would consider Clarkson as he has also shown that ability to pop at times like he did in Game 2 when he scored 38 FP.
Rudy Gobert , C UTA – I don’t love the center position on this slate, but you have to play someone and Gobert is going to at least give you a pretty solid floor. I know in Game 4 he only had 30 FP and that’s not enough to pay off the cost, but his prior three games worth of production is good enough for tonight.
Dallas Mavericks vs Los Angeles Clippers (-8)
Game Total: 236.5
What a wild Game 4 which saw a hobbled Luka Doncic carry the Mavericks to an overtime win over the Clippers with Kristaps Porzingis ruled out moments before the tip. Game 5 will also see Porzingis out of the lineup and while Doncic is an absolute star, it would take another heroic effort for him to keep the Mavericks in contention here tonight. The Clippers had Paul George and Marcus Morris combine to shoot just 6-for-23 from the floor and 2-for-11 from three-point range in that game while the likes of Trey Burke went 10-for-14, Tim Hardaway shot 8-for-18 and Seth Curry went 6-for-9 from the floor. In basketball the teams that hit their shots tend to win and it took a buzzer beater for the Mavs to pull this one out. If all things revert back to the norms this one should be an easy cover for the Clippers to take the 3-2 series lead.
Clippers Players to Target
Landry Shamet /Reggie Jackson , PG LAC – Whomever starts is probably worth getting the nod if you are looking for value at the point guard position tonight. Neither really jump off the page, Jackson likely has a higher ceiling of production from a pure scoring standpoint, but both really lack any usage on this roster given the likes of Leonard, George and Williams taking most of the shots.
Lou Williams , SG LAC – I will maintain that I would rather play Williams over Paul George . He is just cheaper and George has not come close to returning the value on his price tag. Of course, this is a small slate so George could be the contrarian play here as well. If making one lineup give me Williams. If making multiple lineups make sure to grab some George exposure in case, he pops.
Kawhi Leonard , SF LAC – I mean, obviously right? You shouldn’t need much more than seeing his name to know he should be in your lineups. Leonard is the monster on this Clippers team. He hasn’t scored less than 50 FP in any game this series. The cost, that’s the one thing, it is a small slate so the price is higher than it has been.
Marcus Morris , PF LAC – I know he struggled in Game 4 but I am ready for a bounce-back from Morris in Game 5. The price is still nice and he hasn’t given you less than 20 FP in any game while offering up 30+ FP upside which has already been on display.
Ivica Zubac , C LAC – Give me Zubac over Harrell here. He has been the stronger player in the playoffs and has seen more minutes than Harrell in every game this series. Zubac has put up 20+ FP in three of the four games.
Mavericks Players to Target
Seth Curry , PG DAL – Even with Porzingis ruled out we still saw Curry come off the bench. With overtime, Curry played 30 minutes and scored 15 points with one rebounds, one assist and one steal. This was the lone game in the series where Curry failed to reach 20 FP. With Zinger out again I expect to see him play a key role off the bench here again.
Trey Burke , PG DAL – I hate point chasing with players that are BOOM or BUST like Burke but the kid knows how to score the basketball and he is not afraid to shoot it. Dallas is going to need the scoring to keep in this game in my opinion and we are looking at a nice 236 game total. Assuming he starts again, I see uber high ownership here given the small slate.
Luka Doncic , SG DAL – I mean, he scored almost 100 FP in Game 4. With Porzingis ruled out again, I can honestly see him shooting the moon once again as long as the ankle holds up. He is the highest priced player on the slate for a good reason and I don’t see how you fade him if making a single lineup for tonight.
Tim Hardaway , SF DAL – Great floor play for tonight. He is going to see between 32-35 minutes of playing time and with Porzingis ruled out there is going to be plenty of shots to go around. He took 18 shots in Game 4 and a similar output should be in the cards again tonight. THJ has scored 20+ points in back-to-back games.
Dorian Finney-Smith , SF DAL – DFS is questionable to play tonight but if he is good to go then he becomes another viable play. Over the last two games he has gone for 27 and 31 FP while having played over 30 minutes in all four games this series. DFS is a player that doesn’t need to score to get his fantasy points but if the shot drops it gives him a nice fantasy ceiling.
Maxi Kleber , PF DAL – The minutes have been there for Kleber but even with Porzingis out of the lineup the offense still hasn’t been there. He is going to rebound. He is going to block some shots and all that is great but the floor is very low. Only use if you must.
Boban Marjanovic , C DAL – I could honestly see Boban as the chalk center play tonight. He is an absolute fantasy point per minute monster. In Game 3 he played just nine minutes and finished with 25 FP. He saw 15 minutes in Game 4 and scored 18.4. If the Mavericks ever gave him 20 minutes, which they did a few times in the bubble, he could go for 10x his price today.