Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots
New England Patriots -10.5
Total: 50
Players to Watch
New England Patriots
Tom Brady – Brady has gotten off to a slow start to his 2018 season as he is completing just 64.4-percent of his passes while throwing nine touchdowns and four interceptions. The four interceptions is already halfway to his total in which he ended 2017 with. Things could be on the up and up for Brady however as the Patriots offense welcomes back Julian Edelman who missed the first four games due to suspension and missed all of the 2017 season due to a torn ACL.
Julian Edelman – Edelman will be playing in his first meaningful game since Super Bowl LI if you can believe it. Edelman suffered a torn ACL during the 2017 preseason which cost him all of last year and then he tested positive for a performance enhancing substance this offseason which netted him a four-game suspension. His return to the Patriots lineup should shake some things up as New England’s passing attack has struggled to get going at times this season.
Josh Gordon – Whelp, Gordon made his Patriots debut in Week 4 and caught both of his targets for 32 yards and threw a block that sprung James White for a touchdown run. In now what will be Gordon’s third week with the team many are expecting a larger role and the returning Julian Edelman could leave him with some favorable matchups by opposing defenses.
Rob Gronkowski – Gronk suffered an ankle injury during Week 4’s contest and was questionable to play in Thursday’s game but reports are that he will indeed play. Like the rest of the Patriots offense, Gronk is off to a slow start but defenses will now need to worry about Edelman and Josh Gordon which could open some things up for Gronk.
James White – A monster in the passing game, White has caught 22 passes for 193 yards and three touchdowns thus far this season. He has also added 110 yards rushing and a score on the season. White is a playmaker and Brady has championed for him to get more snaps. Look for White to extend plenty of drives on third down catches.
Sony Michel – The rookie Michel got off to a slow start but had his coming out part in Week 4 when he rushed for 112 yards and a touchdown against the Dolphins. Michel was a big-time playmaker at Georgia and New England drafted him with the 31st overall pick in the 1st round. The Colts have struggled to stop the run and the Patriots have seemed focused on getting Michel his carries. If this game ends up being a blowout I expect Michel to get a lot of garbage time yards as New England runs out the clock.
Indianapolis Colts
Andrew Luck – This will be Luck’s first game in New England since the infamous “Deflategate” playoff game in which Luck and the Colts were thrashed by New England. Since then its been season full of injuries for Luck but he is presumably healthy now and has put up some good performances this season. The one thing to worry about here is that his favorite target and number one receiver T.Y. Hilton is not going to play due to injury.
Eric Ebron – With both Jack Doyle and T.Y. Hilton ruled out for tonight’s game I would expect Ebron to take on a bigger role in the team’s passing attack. The Patriots have historically struggled to defend the tight end and Ebron has seen 21 targets over the last two weeks and have found the endzone in three of the four games this season.
Ryan Grant – Grant has been the No.2 receiver behind T.Y. Hilton this year but with Hilton ruled out it is safe to assume that Grant will become the No.1 target at receiver for Andrew Luck . In Week 4, Grant caught five of seven targets for 64 yards against the Texans.
Chester Rogers – Stepping up with Hilton out, Rogers caught 8-of-11 targets for 85 yards in Week 4 against the Texans. He should again be heavily targeted in Week 4 as the Colts do not have much of a running attack and New England has struggled to defend the pass this season.
Zach Pascal – The rookie receiver made a huge leap in Week 4, catching 6-for-10 targets for 56 yards and a touchdown. Prior to Week 4’s contest he had seen just three total targets over the first three weeks of the season. He, like Grant and Rogers, should see increased targets in Thursday’s game.
Nyheim Hines – While Hines does not do much running of the football, Jordan Wilkens has that job, he is the far more the effective player given his role in the teams passing attack. Through four games this season Hines has caught 22 passes for 119 yards and two touchdowns. He does have a rushing touchdown on 18 carries this season but again, he is averaging less than five carries a game. Look for the short passing game to Hines to be used as a replacement for the Colts rushing attack.
Pre-Game Props
1) The Last non-kneeling, offensive play of the 1st Q is a running play (Yes: 2.5x) (No: 2.5x)
I am going to go with a NO on this prop. Both teams should be very pass happy tonight so give me a completed pass to run out the clock in the 1st Q.
2) Andrew Luck throws for more passing yards than Tom Brady in the 1st Q. (Yes: 2.5x) (No: 2.5x)
I am going to go with a NO for this prop. Patriots at home and the return of Julian Edelman . I can see New England putting up a lot of yards and points tonight with Tom Brady leading the charge.
3) Colts record more rushing yards than the Patriots in the 1st Q (Yes: 2.9x) (No: 2.1x)
Uhh, have you seen the Colts rushing attack? Neither has anybody in Indianapolis either. This has to be NO and I would even use my “One-Shot” wager on this prop as well.
4) The first offensive play of the game results in an incomplete pass or gains 7 or more yards (Yes: 3.2x) (No: 2.3x)
I am definitely a little torn here because I could very easily see a gain of seven or more yards and I could see the Patriots possibly running the ball to open the game should they lose the toss. I like to think offense wins in football right now so lets go with YES.
5) 3 or more Patriot players catch a pass on the Patriots opening drive (Yes: 3.6x) (No: 1.7x)
I know I said that I would probably use my “One-Shot” on the Patriots outrushing the Colts in the 1st Q but if you want the bigger bonus I think this could be a really good spot for it. Give me a catch from Edelman, White and either Gronk or Josh Gordon on this opening drive.
6) Andrew Luck rushes for 3 or more yards during the Colts opening drive (Yes: 2.8x) (No:2.0x)
I am going with a NO here. Luck was much more mobile in years past but so far this season he hasn’t done a ton of running or at the least has not gained a ton of yards outside of Week 3. The Patriots don’t often generate a ton of pass rush so I can see Luck staying in the pocket with little reason to run around.